I like him, I think he'll be an NHL goalie. I don't see him in the NHL from training camp next fall however - I think he gets a season in the AHL first.

I'd look at signing a UFA goalie in the summer that won't break the bank rather than making an expensive trade. Guys like Grubauer, Binnington and Andersen will require a significant commitment, but there's another tier of goalies that could provide just as much value to the Oilers (1A/1B) in Ullmark, Raanta or even Driedger. I'd be happy to go with one of the latter guys and not have a bona-fide starter because (a) Koskinen puts up great numbers when he isn't overworked and (b) I think the league is moving away from 60-game starters.

In the meantime, lets see whether Smith can be that guy. Koskinen has been flat out overworked - he's played significantly more minutes than any other goalie - and maybe he can rebound if he gets some rest.

This is a fair outline. I'd counter with Koskinen, Bear or Bouchard instead of Broberg (we need RD, not LD), Konovalov, Lavoie (or Holloway or Yamamoto, but I don't think you'd give them up), and your 2021 first.

Koskinen, Bear, Konovolov Lavoie and 2021 1st? Personally, I would do that deal if I was Holland. Not sure if I'm in the minority on that though...

Maybe do some homework Edmonton is ranked at 14th and the Disney Ducks are at 9th. here is the link: https://thehockeywriters.com/nhl-farm-system-rankings/

oh wow one website has them just inside the top 15, you showed me

No deal. Here's a little look at the Oilers goalies and Gibson fared at 5v5 over the past 1.5 seasons:

Shots against/60
Koskinen: 32.96
Gibson: 30.83
Smith: 29.11

Save %
Koskinen: .919
Gibson: .915
Smith: .905

HD shots against/60
Koskinen: 8.86
Gibson: 8.59
Smith: 7.40

HDSV%
Koskinen: .836
Gibson: .820
Smith: .784

Contracts
Gibson: $6.4M, UFA 2027
Koskinen: $4.5M, UFA 2022
Smith: $1.5M, UFA 2021

I don't see Edmonton giving up a lot for Gibson, TBH. Maybe he'll rebound, or maybe, like Matt Murray, the shooters have figured him out. But that's a lot of risk for a guy who isn't an upgrade on Mikko Koskinen.

If you honestly think Gibson isnt an upgrade over Koskinen there is nothing that can be said to you that will result in a positive hockey conversation. has to be one of the worst takes ive seen on here

The stats prove you wrong. Koskinen has been better than Gibson over the past 1.5 years. The shooters have figured Gibson out and he hasn't adjusted.

Hold on.

There's like 25-30 quality goalies coming into UFA this off season.

I don't think I've ever seen a UFA goalie class like it before.

Many won't hit the market and will resign with their teams, but this upcoming UFA market is the deepest I can recall.

And we finally have some cap space to go fishing in the deeper end of the pool. That Holland didn't over pay Markstrom gives me hope he can get the right tender for the team going forward.

Hasek says hello.

I'd do that (as edited in your comment above).

Although I'd rather it be the 2022 1st. We need to actually draft some players at this upcoming draft lol

Problem is you guys are over the 50 man contract limit so it likely wouldn't be approved by the league.

Gibson is absolutely an upgrade over Koskinen.

Woodguy has him as the top goalie in the league over the last four or five seasons, in a recent twitter thread.

And that's a hell of a contract now and going forward for a quality starter.

And old goalie who was about to retire. They won without him, Holland doesn't crave star tenders.

Not comparable to this trade at all.

https://www.seattlepi.com/news/amp/Dominator-to-Detroit-Sabres-reluctantly-trade-1058640.php

You aren't trading for Gibson 4-5 years ago though. Looking at recent history there's nothing he's better at than Koskinen - and he's faced fewer shots and fewer dangerous shots.

You'd be amazed at how fast we could get rid of guys like Rakell, Lindholm and Silfverberg.

Did you notice that Wayne and I share birthdays? It may be my best hockey claim to fame -- even better than having witnessed his 793rd goal in person.

I well remember how it played out at the time. Hasek was still The Dominator. Though he is more the exception than the rule as far as Holland's history with goaltenders. Wonder if he finds a way to circle back to Mrazek just for old time's sake.



I'll take Woodguy's parsing of fancy stats over yours.

https://twitter.com/Woodguy55/status/1358461894072307714

I have time for Rakell and Silfverberg.

What do you surmise would be the cost?

And that's awesome... Wayner was quite the entertainer

Rakell has fallen off, sorry to say. A real sniper in his skates (like Alex Tuch, who seems to be developing) would have had 3 goals last night. I'd judge a second and a good (A/B) prospect is about all we could expect for him.

Silfverberg still has both offensive and defensive skills. He's every bit as skilled as Kasperi Kapanen or Jason Zucker, so I'd say a late first and a B prospect.

I was in the left corner behind the Vancouver goal about four rows from the glass. Marty McSorley had the puck along the boards with his back to me. I could see Wayne coming down the slot. Right on cue, Marty the One Man Party passed diagonally onto Wayne's stick, and he made no mistake; the puck travelled right at me into the net. The second thing I remember about that game was that there was a delay of about 20 minutes while the lights came up, there was some sort of ceremonial recognition, etc., and the Vancouver players lounged around their bench waiting for it all to be over; when the game resumed, the Canucks got going again after the interruption and won it. That shows character.

"Gibson has been the best goalie in the NHL for a while now. Except his hiccup last year, he's Elite."

What he's saying is that from 2015-16 to 2018-19 Gibson was Elite. In 2019-20 he was about average and in 2020-21 he's been about average. He's overly quick to dismiss Gibson's "hiccup" IMO. And now that the hiccup is in it's second year, is it an anomaly or a trend?

Which brings me back to my point:

You aren't trading for Gibson 4-5 years ago though. Looking at recent history there's nothing he's better at than Koskinen - and he's faced fewer shots and fewer dangerous shots.

I totally get your respect for Darcy, I have a lot of respect for him too. But a quick look at his chart reveals lots of guys in his top-9 that aren't considered elite goalies anymore:

Bobrovsky had 2 good seasons - 16-17 and 17-18 - but has been average to poor in the 2.3 seasons since
Crawford retired, was mostly good up until retirement
Bishop is on IR but appears to have lost his starters job to Khudobin who performed better last year
Miller has been a backup for the past 3 years
Saros never has been considered elite, he's been solid to good in a backup / 1B role in Nashville.

It's an interesting exercise and food for thought, but don't take it for gospel. A modicum of research shows that goalie performances vary significantly from year to year (Bobrovsky, Price, Gibson, Rinne, Holtby, Murray, etc), so there's no reason to go out and spend a ton of assets getting a guy who might not actually be a upgrade half the time. Edmonton's current strategy of getting 2 competent guys and interspersing their starts / riding the hot hand seems to be working and is probably the best bet going forward.

25 - 30 quality goalies? And who exactly are those? Can you name your Top 10??
Realistically. I can't see Rask Binnington, Grubauer reaching UFA... They are all on contending teams. They will re sign.
So who are you targetting after that? You're not signing a 38 year old Rinne, Dubnyk isn't coming here.
Your main options are Anderson (do you want do commit long term to a 31 year old Anderson?) Driedger (my preference) Raanta (injury troubles) and Ullmark (I don't mind this) and maybe Mrazek.

Am I missing the other 20 goalies you're thinking of?

https://www.capfriendly.com/browse/free-agents/2022/caphit/all/goalies?display=goalie-advanced-stats&hide=skater-stats

Look at the top thirty names, there are probably twenty quality names.

As I said in my post not all will make it to free agency but that's a hell of a year for UFA goalies.

Just did a little research and it shows that Gibson hasn't been playing at an elite level since 2018.

Since January 1, 2019, 31 goalies have played at least 2800 minutes in the NHL (5v5). Gibson ranks 25th by sv% and 23rd by HDsv%. That's not elite. Koskinen's stats are basically identical.

Koskinen: 88 GP, .915 sv% / .820 HDsv%
Gibson: 91 GP, .915 sv% / .818 HDsv%

Here is the link:

http://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20182019&thruseason=20202021&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&stdoi=g&rate=y&team=ALL&pos=S&loc=B&toi=2800&gpfilt=gpdate&fd=2019-01-01&td=2021-02-24&tgp=410&lines=single&draftteam=ALL

I counted 8, half of which aren't coming here.
Rask
Binnington
Anderson
Grubauer
Raanta
Driedger
Mrazek
Ullmark

Who am I missing?

Since the Oilers need a guy to play about 40% of the schedule and not a "bona-fide starter", I would have some time for an older goalie if he's performing well still. Smith has been outstanding so far, and we know Holland has no compunction signing older goalies, so don't write off guys like Rinne, Elliott or Halak just due to age.

That said, it would be nice to get a younger guy who can transition into a larger role and maybe platoon with Koskinen / Konovalov / Rodrigue going forward. Ullmark would be my target, not sure what his actual market value is but his CF-AGM value seems to be around $3M x 3 and I would have no issue signing him to that. Driedger has gaudy numbers but he hasn't played much hockey, so I'd be a bit wary of him. But on a cheap deal (<$2M) for 1-2 years, I'd give him a shot at the 1B job in Edmonton IF Konovalov was signed and playing in Bakersfield. That way, if Driedger doesn't transition well, there's another competent backup with professional experience waiting in the wings.

But ideally it would be Koskinen-Ullmark for 21-22, then if Konovalov is tearing the cover off the ball in AHL you could move to Ullmark-Konovalov in 2022-23 and save nearly $4M.