pretty unlikely the sens give a top 5 pick and their best d prospect for orlov

That's a very large overpayment for Orlov.

Don't get me wrong - he's good. He's a top 4 D and would be a great add for the Sens. But Brännström is a great young D, a top D prospect in the league, and projects as a strong 2nd pairing option for them behind Chabot and that 1st is going to be top 5. You're vastly overrating what Orlov actually is and then forgetting that he has a NTC and wouldn't want to go to Ottawa.

Why on earth would the rebuilding Senators give up Brannstrom and a top 5 pick for Orlov? Even if Orlov weren't two seasons away from being UFA, which is when Ottawa could actually be ready to compete, it's a BIG overpayment.

Probably the right value for Nurse, but for the Oil with Klef's career in doubt, they have no other top 4 LHD, or any prospect definitely able to fill that role over the next year or even two years perhaps. So I can't think of a trade that would hurt the Oil more right now, or make Connor and Leon more pissed lol. So just not very realistic.

^how to suggest Nurse for Orlov without suggesting it.



Yeah. Can't think of anyone leaving the Caps above who plays left D with a little more skill than Klefbom and was great in a recent championship run. Anybody?





Valuable, yes. Not a likely trade target for WSH. Caps have Siegenthaler, Fehervary, Nardella, and Alexeyev developing at LHD. They're okay, there.

Seems to be similar value allocated in the proposals above for each for sure. I know I have some bias as an Oilers fan, but objectively Nurse plays at a higher level than Orlov. He gets more points, is handling bigger minutes well, is bigger and meaner, and is younger.

What's objective about pretending your guy gets more points? Over the last five seasons, Orlov is 7th among LHD at even strength points, and 21st at total points. Klefbom is 40th and 26th--not as good. Nurse is 21st and 31st. Not as good.

Here's the top ten over the last five years at EVP: Josi, Hedman, Giordano, Rielly, Suter, Keith, Orlov, Yandle, Krug, Ekholm. Orlov is the highest guy on that list never to be a Norris finalist. But he plays a tougher defensive role than most of the guys ahead of him. Objectively, you're drunk.

These trades to me look like a cup run for the teams Caps are being traded to. I don't see an improvement to be honest. Schultz (unless the head injury ruins his play this year) will not be traded. He has been amazing.

So, we're talking Nurse and Orlov here. Klef is not part of my point, and he may be done forever so not trying to make a point on him. Looking to 5 years ago is pretty irrelevant when Nurse was barely in the league at that time. Hint hint, he's valuable because he is young. Here are the 2018-19, 2019-20, and 2020-21 season to this point totals: https://www.quanthockey.com/nhl/seasons/last-3-nhl-seasons-defensemen-stats.html.

Nurse is 24th in the league, Orlov 67th. I was only talking about total points. But, at Even Strength, Nurse is 12th, Orlov 42nd. This is where these players stand recently. If you want to claim that 2016 and 2017 matter in the calculations of value, go ahead, I'm sure every GM really loves hearing how great players were half a decade ago in trade considerations.

Also, you should learn a bit about objectivity. Claiming someone you don't know is inebriated might be the least objective thing you could do. Instead, putting forward compelling statistics that show the *current* value of a player would help you in your quest for objectivity.

Cool story. Won't mention him again.




Okay. I stand corrected: over the last three years, Nurse has 9 more EVP than Orlov. He's also playing twenty more seconds per game at evens, and getting a lot of power plays while the Caps mostly kept Orlov in a 2nd pair and PK role, since they've got some wing who likes to play the left point on their power play.

Of course, in the 2018 playoffs, Orlov led NHL LHD in minutes and EVP. Finished top five in hits, blocks, and takeaways. Helped the team win some kind of a trophy, I think? I don't know. I'm American, so we don't really understand this stuff, but I still kinda think Orlov is decent at hockey.

Maybe OP has a point that Edmonton wouldn't like to add someone who is good at playoff hockey to help McDavid get something done, and it would take a third team?

Or maybe the Caps have four top-four proven LHD in Kempny (if healthy by the playoffs), Lucic (if he can keep going like he is now), Dillon, and Orlov (even though Nurse is also really good). I think that's a pretty good rotation. As far as the value of staying young at every position, LHD remains the only position where the Caps' prospect pool is stacked. Goalie and center are decent. If the Caps trade Orlov, it's probably for a young RW with top line potential, rather than a slightly bigger, slightly younger Orlov with only four career playoff points.

Sorry to hear you aren't drunk. Good luck with that.

I agree, more likely with extra LHD a trade would improve other areas rather than a straight across trade for two LHD comfortable in their current roles. There is no need for a trade in this sense, as it doesn't serve either team's interests.

But just to clarify, you suggested Nurse for Orlov would make sense as a suggestion in your original post on this thread right? If not, I stand corrected.

If you did, let's talk about the players. Your arguments about the Caps being a better team are well taken and obviously true, but we're not Peter Pocklington suggesting trading entire teams here are we.

This convo is about comparing one player to another alone in their current state. The Caps are a better team, so Orlov has seen more playoffs in the past. 19 points in 63 games to Nurse's 4 in 17. Slightly higher PPG in more opportunity, based mainly on the cup run 3 cups ago. So I don't think that's much of a determining factor on their current value. It more just reveals that the Caps had really good success as a team a few years ago. Bravo.

Nurse is simply a better player in 2021, and averaged out over the last 3 seasons is better. He plays almost a minute more than Orlov on the PK (1:08 vs 2:02/game) over that time. Nurse doesn't play much PP (1:29/game), but he is efficient when he does at 17 points over the past 3 seasons compared to Orlov's 6 points in 1:03 on the PP/game.

Again, it's great the Caps are solid on LHD in your opinion. The Oilers this season are missing a second top 4 LHD, but long term are also looking solid, especially if Klef comes back. That is all very interesting.

But if we're having a convo on whether OP purported to "suggest Nurse for Orlov without suggesting it" (your idea, not his), then I'm saying in 2021 that's a bad trade because Nurse has more value.

Also just not sure what your time-frame on stats is here, are you including 2017-18? If you are, again, not that useful tacking on more old stats for current arguments. In 2018-19, 19-20, 20-21 (so far), Nurse has 67 ESP, Orlov 49. Math tells me that's 18 more.

If we want to go really current, Nurse has 11 points in his first 15 games. Orlov has none in 7 on a pretty good Caps team. Too small of a sample size for anyone's liking, but it's where we are for thinking about current values.

Saying that Orlov was carried by a championship team when he led that team's LHD in defensive zone starts, minutes, and shots blocked is absolutely ridiculous. Orlov carried the Caps to a championship by playing good defense, averaging 24:16 a night when it counted most, and doing something with it.

If you're genuinely looking to find things we agree on, it sounds like Orlov and Nurse are both very valuable defensemen, with good all around games. If you just feel like continuing to snipe at the notion that a Russian-born guy who plays for a team in the USA could be as good as a Canadian-born guy who plays for a team in Canada, I'm not surprised or interested.

Hmm, never mentioned nationalities having anything to do with it, as the don't. I only ever brought up statistics to make my points. Not sure why you went there with your arguments, not helpful.

Orlov was one of the best dmen in the 2017-18 playoffs. I agree. My only issue was with your interpretation that OP was implicitly suggesting Nurse be traded for Orlov, which I think in 2021 is not a good idea for the Oil as I think Nurse carries more value present day. But I think we can both agree your suggestion was only on trade values of the two, not that an actual trade of the two one for one makes sense, as both teams are definitely happy with what they bring.

This thread will one day be known as...The Great Nurse/Orlov Debate.

Signed,

The Peanut Gallery

I wasn't listening. Did you admit I was right yet?


edit: because...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6YXnDT5C_Ag

Stunning goal. Too bad Orlov doesn't have any yet this year, and Nurse has more through 15 games this year than Orlov did in 69 games last season.

It's funny, because you're not the same account that I had the Nurse vs Madison Bowey debate with, three years ago, but it's just as pointless, and equally not convincing anyone but ourselves of anything.

https://www.google.com/search?q=orlov+stanley+cup&rlz=1CAIGZW_enUS859US859&sxsrf=ALeKk00-TGea6IKt1QGCji-t55Zla7Lcpw:1613005075691&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjwpbqU0ODuAhVVYs0KHfnnDcMQ_AUoAXoECAgQAw&biw=1300&bih=580

Well I assume you were arguing for Bowey, as a Caps fan. I guess that worked out well lol.

Our conversation may be pointless, in the same way the rest of Madison Bowey's NHL career may be.

Yeah. It looks like I was wrong that time. Their production and defensive rates were comparable but the big minutes that Nurse had already started playing seem to have established him as a regular. So he got to keep progressing. Similarly, I think playing #1LD minutes on the shutdown pair of a recent champ has established Orlov to the point where he'll get the leeway to bounce back from a slow start this year, but maybe you can tell me why I'm wrong about that, too?

Why are you looking at the past FIVE seasons? Nurse was 20 when that period started, and just breaking into the league. That's not a reasonable comparison at all.

2017-19 to 2019-20, at 5v5 (3 seasons)
Nurse: 4473:33 TOI (2nd), 77 points (7th, tied with Hedman)
Orlov: 4359:34 TOI (5th), 66 points (24th, tied with Spurgeon)

2018-19 to 2020-21, at 5v5 (2 seasons + this year to date)
Nurse: 3219:13 TOI (1st), 58 points (7th)
Orlov: 2909:10 TOI (12th), 42 points (36th, tied with Skjei)

2019-20 to 2020-21, at 5v5 (last season + this year to date)
Nurse: 1662:51 (2nd), 31 points (5th)
Orlov: 1390:22 (32nd), 18 points (61st, tied with Myers, Stralman, Spurgeon, Dillon, Braun, etc.)

It's pretty obvious that Nurse is right in the thick of his prime and Orlov is past his and declining: 5th > 12th > 32nd for TOI, 24th > 36th > 61st for points is a clear decline.

Didn't put a lot of thought into it. I don't tend to think one year makes or breaks anyone. Especially not a season that ends half way through, when a lot of the best guys are just getting started. Five years was the first thing I looked up, and I spent two minutes making that comment, which your fellow Oilers fan has already spent a day trying to argue against, because he couldn't accept that Orlov has more points over five years, either. He said Nurse has more points than Orlov. I looked it up. It didn't look true, or close. Over a three year window, it looks like they're both playing top pairing roles, and putting up top pairing offense. Clearly nobody thinks a one for one trade is happening. If it were, I'd say that a team looking for youth, size, and offense in the first half of a regular season would prefer Nurse, while a team looking for experience, durability, finesse, hip checks, and playoff dominance would take Orlov. Based on when the Oilers have decided to do well, this decade, I know they're keeping Nurse.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6BHyuuGKtro