Forums/Armchair-GM

Better scouting

Created by: Leafsfaninvancity
Initial Creation Date: Feb 20, 2021
Published: Feb 20 at 6:43
Team: 2020-21 Toronto Maple Leafs
Team Explanation
Imagine if Leafs drafted Rakell over Stuart Percy (Kucherov is a second rounder but very late, so I won't count him, but yeah that would be amazing), Theodore in 2013 (26th) instead of Gauthier (21), Sebastian Aho (35 pick) instead of Dermott (34) in 2015, and Alex Debrincat (39) over Egor Korshkov (31) in 2016. I know other teams passed on them, but these are 1st and 2nd round picks, not late gems. And the Leafs would be in cap hell. and kept Kadri as Theodore would fill Barrie's position. I have faith in Dubas that he can draft well, he's already shown it with Robertson and Sandin. The Leafs are rich and should have the league's best scouts!!!
Trades
TOR
  1. Aho, Sebastian
CAR
  1. Dermott, Travis
TOR
  1. Kadri, Nazem
COL
  1. Kerfoot, Alexander
TOR
  1. Theodore, Shea
VGK
  1. 2022 7th round pick (TOR)
(Frederik Gauthier)
TOR
  1. DeBrincat, Alex
CHI
  1. 2022 6th round pick (TOR)
(Egor Korshkov)
TOR
  1. Rakell, Rickard
ANA
  1. 2023 7th round pick (TOR)
(Stuart Percy)
Buyouts
  • Mikhail Grabovski: $0
Retained Salary Transactions
  • Phil Kessel: $1,200,000 (15%)
Buried
  • Pierre Engvall: $175,000 ($1,250,000)
DRAFT YEARROUND 1ROUND 2ROUND 3ROUND 4ROUND 5ROUND 6ROUND 7
2021
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
2022
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
2023
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES BONUSESCAP SPACE
24$81,500,000$104,946,977$0$0-$23,446,977

Roster

Left WingCenterRight Wing
CAR
Aho, Sebastian
$8,460,250
C, LW
UFA - 4
TOR
Matthews, Auston
$11,640,250
C
UFA - 4
TOR
Marner, Mitchell
$10,903,000
RW
UFA - 5
CHI
DeBrincat, Alex
$6,400,000
LW, RW
RFA - 3
TOR
Tavares, John
$11,000,000
C
NMC
UFA - 5
TOR
Nylander, William
$6,962,366
RW, LW
UFA - 4
TOR
Robertson, Nicholas
$821,667
LW
RFA - 3
COL
Kadri, Nazem
$4,500,000
C
NTC
UFA - 2
ANA
Rakell, Rickard
$3,789,444
RW, LW
UFA - 2
TOR
Hyman, Zach
$2,250,000
LW, RW
NTC
UFA - 1
TOR
Spezza, Jason
$700,000
C, RW
UFA - 1
TOR
Mikheyev, Ilya
$1,645,000
LW, RW
UFA - 2
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
TOR
Rielly, Morgan
$5,000,000
LD
NTC
UFA - 2
VGK
Theodore, Shea
$5,200,000
LD/RD
UFA - 5
TOR
Andersen, Frederik
$5,000,000
G
NTC
UFA - 1
TOR
Muzzin, Jake
$5,625,000
LD
NMC
UFA - 4
TOR
Brodie, TJ
$5,000,000
RD
NMC
UFA - 4
TOR
Campbell, Jack
$1,650,000
G
UFA - 2
TOR
Lehtonen, Mikko
$925,000
LD
UFA - 1
TOR
Holl, Justin
$2,000,000
RD
NTC
UFA - 3
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
TOR
Vesey, Jimmy
$900,000
LW, RW
UFA - 1
TOR
Thornton, Joe
$700,000
C, LW
NMC
UFA - 1
TOR
Simmonds, Wayne
$1,500,000
RW, LW
NTC
UFA - 1
TOR
Bogosian, Zach
$1,000,000
RD
NTC
UFA - 1
Taxi Squad
TOR
Barabanov, Alexander
$925,000 ($0)
RW, LW
UFA - 1
TOR
Sabourin, Scott
$700,000 ($0)
RW
UFA - 1
TOR
Marincin, Martin
$700,000 ($0)
LD
UFA - 1

Special Teams

Power Play 1
Aho, S.
Matthews, A.
Marner, M.
Rielly, M.
Nylander, W.
Power Play 2
DeBrincat, A.
Tavares, J.
Rakell, R.
Robertson, N.
Theodore, S.
Penalty Kill 1
Hyman, Z.
Marner, M.
Muzzin, J.
Theodore, S.
Penalty Kill 2
Kadri, N.
Mikheyev, I.
Rielly, M.
Brodie, T.

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Feb 20 at 7:44
#1
GM Hockeysaurus Rex
Joined: Jul 2016
Posts: 14,145
Likes: 5,732
Those are not Dubas' draft picks tho. Dubas and his scouting team are amazing..
SevenLeg liked this.
Feb 20 at 8:08
#2
Thread Starter
53yearsofsuffering..
Joined: Feb 2021
Posts: 162
Likes: 31
Quoting: SammyT_51
Those are not Dubas' draft picks tho. Dubas and his scouting team are amazing..


Yeah I know, its Burke, Nonis, Fletcher, Lamoriello, alot of incompetence. Although Lou did draft Matthews (no brainer really), dumped Phaneuf, and traded for Andersen so I'll give him some credit.
SammyT_51 and palhal liked this.
Feb 20 at 8:17
#3
The 1 True GM
Joined: Jun 2020
Posts: 739
Likes: 116
These 'what if' scenarios are flawed in so many ways it is ridiculous to any thought into these.
mokumboi liked this.
Feb 20 at 8:18
#4
Thread Starter
53yearsofsuffering..
Joined: Feb 2021
Posts: 162
Likes: 31
Quoting: Sean4417
These 'what if' scenarios are flawed in so many ways it is ridiculous to any thought into these.


how so?
Feb 20 at 8:42
#5
Joined: Jul 2019
Posts: 2,514
Likes: 1,186
Quoting: SammyT_51
Those are not Dubas' draft picks tho. Dubas and his scouting team are amazing..


Based on what results? So far none of those picks have turned into NHLers. Fans are high on the prospects but thats pretty much a given for every team regardless of who the prospects are.

Its hard to call a team who hasn't produced a single NHL player in 3 drafts good drafters.
Feb 20 at 8:52
#6
Thread Starter
53yearsofsuffering..
Joined: Feb 2021
Posts: 162
Likes: 31
Quoting: Byrr
Based on what results? So far none of those picks have turned into NHLers. Fans are high on the prospects but thats pretty much a given for every team regardless of who the prospects are.

Its hard to call a team who hasn't produced a single NHL player in 3 drafts good drafters.


In all fairness, the 2019 1st rounder turned into Muzzin, a great top 4 dman. And I'd be shocked if Robertson and Sandin didn't turn into at least average full time NHL players, but I think they have a higher ceiling, but yes they are just prospects at the moment. Where in the picks I mentioned, only Dermott is a regular NHL player, and all the players they missed out on are star or above average players.
Feb 20 at 8:54
#7
Joined: Jul 2019
Posts: 2,514
Likes: 1,186
Quoting: Leafsfaninvancity
In all fairness, the 2019 1st rounder turned into Muzzin, a great top 4 dman. And I'd be shocked if Robertson and Sandin didn't turn into at least average full time NHL players, but I think they have a higher ceiling. Where in the picks I mentioned, only Dermott is a regular NHL player, and all the players they missed out on are star or above average players.


Im just saying that so far, those Burke, Lamoriello, Nonis, whoever you want to call them, drafts were more successful than Dubas has been. Even if you account for 3 years after the drafts took place, they produced players 5 players to Dubas' teams 0. If you take out the high 1sts, its still Connor Brown and Travis Dermott to Dubas' 0.

The only difference between the 2 draft teams so far is your perception of them.
Feb 20 at 8:55
#8
exo2769
Joined: Jul 2015
Posts: 9,047
Likes: 3,420
Quoting: Leafsfaninvancity
how so?


Becauae guys like Aho and Debrincat were 2nd rounders. Its not like TOR was alone in passing them up. Maybe sometimes players continue to grow at different rates and it might still be a legit question to think. So this Debrincat guy played with McDavid, Dylan Strome, Anthony Cirelli, and Taylor Raddysh during his time in Erie. Maybe being with the #1oa and #3oa helped him a bit? I don't think that's an unreasonable question to ask yourself.
SevenLeg liked this.
Feb 20 at 9:01
#9
Thread Starter
53yearsofsuffering..
Joined: Feb 2021
Posts: 162
Likes: 31
Quoting: Byrr
Im just saying that so far, those Burke, Lamoriello, Nonis, whoever you want to call them, drafts were more successful than Dubas has been. Even if you account for 3 years after the drafts took place and take out the high 1sts, they produced players like Dermott and Brown to Dubas' teams 0.

The only difference between the 2 draft teams so far is your perception of them.


Yes but how long did it take to develop those players? Yeah Brown, Komorov, Johnsson all later round picks that turned out great, but it took a while. Dubas hasn't had that long term window yet to see where his prospects are going. I'm not calling Dubas Steve Yzerman, but he definately deserves more time. And I don't think you can count the 2020 draft, where literally only 2 players are in the NHL right now, its very early. So it's really 2 drafts for Dubas.
Feb 20 at 9:03
#10
Thread Starter
53yearsofsuffering..
Joined: Feb 2021
Posts: 162
Likes: 31
Quoting: exo2769
Becauae guys like Aho and Debrincat were 2nd rounders. Its not like TOR was alone in passing them up. Maybe sometimes players continue to grow at different rates and it might still be a legit question to think. So this Debrincat guy played with McDavid, Dylan Strome, Anthony Cirelli, and Taylor Raddysh during his time in Erie. Maybe being with the #1oa and #3oa helped him a bit? I don't think that's an unreasonable question to ask yourself.


I did mention that TO wasn't the only team that passed on them, but Toronto aside from some high lottery picks (Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Rielly) has been abismal at drafting late first/early second round for a long time.
Feb 20 at 9:03
#11
Joined: Jul 2019
Posts: 2,514
Likes: 1,186
Edited Feb 20 at 9:18
Quoting: Leafsfaninvancity
Yes but how long did it take to develop those players? Yeah Brown, Komorov, Johnsson all later round picks that turned out great, but it took a while. Dubas hasn't had that long term window yet to see where his prospects are going. I'm not calling Dubas Steve Yzerman, but he definately deserves more time. And I don't think you can count the 2020 draft, where literally only 2 players are in the NHL right now, its very early. So it's really 2 drafts for Dubas.


It took under 3 years, which is why I said if you look at how they fared after 3 years. So far none of Dubas' picks in 2018 have turned into NHL regulars, even his first rounder, which I discounted for the Burke, etc, teams, Sandin. Dermott specifically only took 2 years but if we look at Dubas' 2019 draft, hes still batting a .000 .

It would be an interesting exercise to see how many teams have produced 0 NHLers from their last 3 drafts. The list won't be long and the Leafs will be on it.
Feb 20 at 9:10
#12
Joined: May 2019
Posts: 6,735
Likes: 2,362
yeah, this is basically a what if Brian Burke, Lou and Hunter weren't bad drafters
Feb 20 at 9:15
#13
Thread Starter
53yearsofsuffering..
Joined: Feb 2021
Posts: 162
Likes: 31
Quoting: Byrr
It took under 3 years, which is why I said if you look at how they fared after 3 years. So far none of Dubas' picks in 2017 have turned into NHL regulars, even his first rounder, which I discounted for the Burke, etc, teams, Sandin. Dermott specifically only took 2 years but if we look at Dubas' 2018 draft, hes still batting a .000 .

It would be an interesting exercise to see how many teams have produced 0 NHLers from their last 4 drafts. The list won't be long and the Leafs will be on it.


Connor Brown took 4 years to become a full regular, he made his pro debut in 3, but so has Liljegren and Sandin, and Robertson. Komarov took 8 years, Johnsson 6 years to become full time. I'm a bit tired, so maybe I'm missing something? Again aside from those elite lottery picks, I can't think of too many picks that have turned into NHL players at all, nevermind in 3 years. I'll give Burke credit for the Schenn/JVR trade, but that pick was horrible with what was available.
Feb 20 at 9:16
#14
Joined: May 2019
Posts: 6,735
Likes: 2,362
Quoting: Byrr
It took under 3 years, which is why I said if you look at how they fared after 3 years. So far none of Dubas' picks in 2017 have turned into NHL regulars, even his first rounder, which I discounted for the Burke, etc, teams, Sandin. Dermott specifically only took 2 years but if we look at Dubas' 2018 draft, hes still batting a .000 .

It would be an interesting exercise to see how many teams have produced 0 NHLers from their last 3 drafts. The list won't be long and the Leafs will be on it.


Why is Dubas getting stuffed for a draft where he wasnt GM? 2017 was Lou at the helm so that draft's on him
Feb 20 at 9:17
#15
Joined: Jul 2019
Posts: 2,514
Likes: 1,186
Quoting: JaredOfLondon
Why is Dubas getting stuffed for a draft where he wasnt GM? 2017 was Lou at the helm so that draft's on him


I specificed 2017 rather than 2018. You probably should have picked up on that when I specified Sandin who was picked in 2018 while Liljegren was picked in 2017.
Feb 20 at 9:20
#16
Thread Starter
53yearsofsuffering..
Joined: Feb 2021
Posts: 162
Likes: 31
Quoting: JaredOfLondon
Why is Dubas getting stuffed for a draft where he wasnt GM? 2017 was Lou at the helm so that draft's on him


No I think he's saying 18,19,20 drafts.2020 is way too early anyways for me
Feb 20 at 9:24
#17
Joined: May 2019
Posts: 6,735
Likes: 2,362
Quoting: Byrr
I specificed 2017 rather than 2018. You probably should have picked up on that when I specified Sandin who was picked in 2018 while Liljegren was picked in 2017.


ok, so if you are using Sandin, and the 2018 draft then that's a whole different ball game because there are tons of NHL teams who dont have a guy more established than Sandin drafted since
St Louis, Vegas, Tampa, San Jose, Pittsburgh, Phoenix, Minnisota, Florida, Calgary, Columbus

vancouver has 1 (a top 10 pick), Ottawa has 1 (top 5 pick), Jersey has 1 (1st over all), Montreal 1 (3rd over all) and carolina has 1 (the 2nd over all pick)

and that's just the teams i checked out. So, as a drafter, Dubas is lookin league average at worst in his tenure as GM.
TheNorthStar liked this.
Feb 20 at 9:31
#18
HopeTheFlamesComeBak
Joined: Oct 2020
Posts: 1,994
Likes: 558
Wow this works cap wise.
Leafsfaninvancity liked this.
Feb 20 at 9:32
#19
Thread Starter
53yearsofsuffering..
Joined: Feb 2021
Posts: 162
Likes: 31
Quoting: JaredOfLondon
ok, so if you are using Sandin, and the 2018 draft then that's a whole different ball game because there are tons of NHL teams who dont have a guy more established than Sandin drafted since
St Louis, Vegas, Tampa, San Jose, Pittsburgh, Phoenix, Minnisota, Florida, Calgary, Columbus

vancouver has 1 (a top 10 pick), Ottawa has 1 (top 5 pick), Jersey has 1 (1st over all), Montreal 1 (3rd over all) and carolina has 1 (the 2nd over all pick)

and that's just the teams i checked out. So, as a drafter, Dubas is lookin league average at worst in his tenure as GM.


And also keep in mind the main reason I think Sandin, Robertson, and maybe even Liljegren aren't in the NHL right now is the depth on the Leafs roster. Take away Thorton, Simmonds, Spezza, Dermott, Vesey, Bogosian, I can definately see them playing right now.
Feb 20 at 9:33
#20
Joined: Jan 2018
Posts: 1,967
Likes: 993
Quoting: Leafsfaninvancity
how so?


Because the draft position likely changes with every significant swap out year to year.
Leafsfaninvancity and Brad21 liked this.
Feb 20 at 9:36
#21
Joined: May 2019
Posts: 6,735
Likes: 2,362
Quoting: Leafsfaninvancity
And also keep in mind the main reason I think Sandin, Robertson, and maybe even Liljegren aren't in the NHL right now is the depth on the Leafs roster. Take away Thorton, Simmonds, Spezza, Dermott, Vesey, Bogosian, I can definately see them playing right now.


heck, Robertson made the team out of camp but got hurt.
Brad21 and TheNorthStar liked this.
Feb 20 at 9:37
#22
HopeTheFlamesComeBak
Joined: Oct 2020
Posts: 1,994
Likes: 558
Quoting: Leafsfaninvancity
And also keep in mind the main reason I think Sandin, Robertson, and maybe even Liljegren aren't in the NHL right now is the depth on the Leafs roster. Take away Thorton, Simmonds, Spezza, Dermott, Vesey, Bogosian, I can definately see them playing right now.


But it's better that way.
Feb 20 at 9:39
#23
Joined: May 2019
Posts: 6,735
Likes: 2,362
i'd also go all the way with the Rakell trade, Burke literally traded the Tyler Biggs pick (which was way worse than the Percy pick) for the Rakell and the Gibbson pick.

Percy mighta been something if he didnt get ruined by concussions and other injuries, Biggs was just a terrible pick through and through
Feb 20 at 9:48
#24
Joined: May 2018
Posts: 21,409
Likes: 6,716
Quoting: Leafsfaninvancity
how so?


28 other teams also didn't draft those guys. Just like 30 teams passed on Robertson. Every team misses out on some picks. So these posts are just silly. No team has ever picked the best player in every draft in every round.
Feb 20 at 9:55
#25
CGY
Joined: Dec 2015
Posts: 4,441
Likes: 1,429
It sucks missing on draft picks, but every team does it. It’s so hard to protect what a teenager will be in 5 years, let alone a month as they are so volatile at that age

The easiest thing in the world to do is use hindsight and say “they should’ve taken this guy”.
 
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