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Discussion - Valuing Jets Prospects for Defensive Help

Created by: TraeYoung
Team: 2020-21 Winnipeg Jets
Initial Creation Date: Feb. 28, 2021
Published: Feb. 28, 2021
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
I loved the last discussion where people absolutely murdered each other over the topic so let’s do it again.

Dumba is a right handed defender with three years left at a $6m cap hit. He seems to be the odd man out in an expansions draft.

Winnipeg could, in theory, use a right handed D to help out. Minnesota needs some expansion help and prospects never hurt. So what’s the fairness and value of these prospects. What could either side add? Let’s discuss.
Trades
1.
WPG
  1. Dumba, Matt
Additional Details:
Extended, of course. What could be added?
MIN
  1. Perfetti, Cole
Additional Details:
What could be added?
2.
WPG
    Dumba, Matt

    What could be added?
    MIN
    1. Heinola, Ville
    Additional Details:
    What could be added?
    3.
    WPG
      What other prospects could work instead?
      4.
      WPG
        Out of curiosity, what would Jets fans give DeMelo up for. Maurice has kept him on the third pair despite his success last year with Morrissey.

        How much for DeMelo with salary retained?
        Retained Salary Transactions
        DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
        2021
        Logo of the WPG
        Logo of the WPG
        Logo of the WPG
        Logo of the WPG
        Logo of the WPG
        2022
        Logo of the WPG
        Logo of the WPG
        Logo of the WPG
        Logo of the CBJ
        Logo of the WPG
        Logo of the WPG
        Logo of the WPG
        2023
        Logo of the WPG
        Logo of the WPG
        Logo of the WPG
        Logo of the WPG
        Logo of the WPG
        Logo of the WPG
        Logo of the WPG
        ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
        22$81,500,000$80,749,524$0$425,000$750,476
        Left WingCentreRight Wing
        Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
        $5,000,000$5,000,000
        C
        UFA - 2
        Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
        $6,125,000$6,125,000
        C
        M-NTC
        UFA - 4
        Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
        $8,250,000$8,250,000
        RW
        NMC
        UFA - 4
        Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
        $7,142,857$7,142,857
        LW
        UFA - 6
        Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
        $6,500,000$6,500,000
        C, LW
        M-NTC
        UFA - 1
        Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
        $6,000,000$6,000,000
        RW, LW
        UFA - 5
        Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
        $2,280,000$2,280,000
        C, LW, RW
        UFA - 1
        Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
        $900,000$900,000
        RW
        UFA - 2
        Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
        $4,125,000$4,125,000
        LW, RW, C
        M-NTC
        UFA - 1
        Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
        $2,916,667$2,916,667
        C
        UFA - 1
        Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
        $750,000$750,000
        RW, C
        UFA - 1
        Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
        $750,000$750,000
        C
        UFA - 1
        Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
        Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
        $6,250,000$6,250,000
        LD
        UFA - 8
        Logo of the Minnesota Wild
        $6,000,000$6,000,000
        RD
        UFA - 3
        Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
        $6,166,667$6,166,667
        G
        UFA - 4
        Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
        $1,000,000$1,000,000
        LD
        UFA - 1
        Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
        $3,000,000$3,000,000
        RD
        UFA - 1
        Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
        $1,500,000$1,500,000
        G
        UFA - 1
        Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
        $1,250,000$1,250,000
        LD/RD
        UFA - 2
        Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
        $725,000$725,000
        LD/RD
        UFA - 2
        ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
        Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
        $725,000$725,000
        LW
        UFA - 2
        Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
        $775,000$775,000
        RD
        UFA - 1
        Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
        $5,291,667$5,291,667
        C, RW
        M-NTC
        UFA - 4
        Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
        $863,333$863,333 (Performance Bonus$425,000$425K)
        LD
        RFA - 1
        Taxi Squad
        Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
        $700,000$700,000 ($0$0$0$0)
        G
        UFA - 1
        Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
        $817,500$817,500 ($0$0$0$0) (Performance Bonus$132,500$132K)
        LW, C
        RFA - 2
        Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
        $725,000$725,000 ($0$0$0$0)
        RD
        UFA - 2
        Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
        $700,000$700,000 ($0$0$0$0)
        C, LW
        UFA - 1
        Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
        $700,000$700,000 ($0$0$0$0)
        G
        UFA - 1

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        Feb. 28, 2021 at 2:38 p.m.
        #1
        Jetsfan
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        Poolman(to replace Dumba who is a FA), Samberg and CBJ 3rd for Dumba
        Feb. 28, 2021 at 2:42 p.m.
        #2
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        Trae Young
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        Quoting: Jetman
        Poolman(to replace Dumba who is a FA), Samberg and CBJ 3rd for Dumba


        Problem with that is even though Poolman is also a FA, he could easily be picked up by Seattle. Also, in this scenario, Dumba would be extended so it’s not like you’re paying for a rental. With that said, does that change your offer and if so, how so? Thanks for the comment!
        Feb. 28, 2021 at 2:43 p.m.
        #3
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        I’d say Samberg, Chisholm and especially Perfetti and Heinola aren’t going anywhere
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        Feb. 28, 2021 at 2:46 p.m.
        #4
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        Dumba can't be extended until he only has a year remaining.

        We need center prospects or a top 6 center and the Jets won't be willing to move any of their assets that fit those two criteria for Dumba. We don't need any defenseman or winger prospects.
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        Feb. 28, 2021 at 2:48 p.m.
        #5
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        Quoting: Jetman
        Poolman(to replace Dumba who is a FA), Samberg and CBJ 3rd for Dumba


        Unless we are getting a high-end top 6 forward with some term or top pairing rd with size (and term) im not moving heinola or perfetti.

        I'd consider samberg but only for a high-end top 4 rd with size and at least 2 years.

        Everyone else is fair game for me, though I would rather keep vesalainen and gustaffsson but I can also stomach losing them for the right pieces
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        Feb. 28, 2021 at 2:53 p.m.
        #6
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        Trae Young
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        Quoting: TanSor
        Dumba can't be extended until he only has a year remaining.

        We need center prospects or a top 6 center and the Jets won't be willing to move any of their assets that fit those two criteria for Dumba. We don't need any defenseman or winger prospects.


        I don’t know why I thought Dumba had only one year left my bad
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        Feb. 28, 2021 at 2:53 p.m.
        #7
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        Quoting: TraeYoung
        I don’t know why I thought Dumba had only one year left my bad


        He's signed through 2023 cheers
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        Feb. 28, 2021 at 2:55 p.m.
        #8
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        Trae Young
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        Quoting: TanSor
        Everyone in this thread thinks he's a rental for some reason. He's signed through 2023 cheers


        I think with all the expansion talk people assume since he has about one year left as a Wild seemingly that he has one year left on his contract. It’s so odd how expansions makes us think lol
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        Feb. 28, 2021 at 2:56 p.m.
        #9
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        Quoting: TraeYoung
        I think with all the expansion talk people assume since he has about one year left as a Wild seemingly that he has one year left on his contract. It’s so odd how expansions makes us think lol


        Well, if it comes to it, we'll protect 8 skaters. He's better than any of our forwards that that we'd potentially expose by protecting him. Trading him certainly makes expansion easier, but I'm not losing any sleep if we lose someone like Greenway to keep Dumba.
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        Feb. 28, 2021 at 2:56 p.m.
        #10
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        Trae Young
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        Quoting: arafay
        Unless we are getting a high-end top 6 forward with some term or top pairing rd with size (and term) im not moving heinola or perfetti.

        I'd consider samberg but only for a high-end top 4 rd with size and at least 2 years.

        Everyone else is fair game for me, though I would rather keep vesalainen and gustaffsson but I can also stomach losing them for the right pieces


        So based on Dumba being a ideal second pairing RD and having 3 years remaining, what would your offer be?
        Feb. 28, 2021 at 3:24 p.m.
        #11
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        Quoting: TraeYoung
        So based on Dumba being a ideal second pairing RD and having 3 years remaining, what would your offer be?


        I think fair value for Dumba is similar to what Zucker got, both are top of the line up players in their prime with term. That was a 1st and a A-/B+ prospect. Rumor was that Dumba was offered for the Perfetti pick but Jets said no (good call on their part).

        I don’t know who the prospect would be that gets this done. It won’t be Perfetti or Heinola and I’m not sold on Vesalainen/Gustaffsson. I would guess Vesalainen does it from an org standpoint but I think BG is holding out until after expansion to get the return he wants.
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        Feb. 28, 2021 at 3:53 p.m.
        #12
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        Quoting: Jetman
        Poolman(to replace Dumba who is a FA), Samberg and CBJ 3rd for Dumba


        Ask from wild gm is Top 6c, or high 1st with top 6c prospect. Wild aren't taking on Dylan d. Wikd aren't taking any d back in a Dumba trade.

        With the way Dumba resurgence this season, yeah Dumba's value has gone up.
        Feb. 28, 2021 at 3:58 p.m.
        #13
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        Quoting: TraeYoung
        So based on Dumba being a ideal second pairing RD and having 3 years remaining, what would your offer be?


        Well realistic the ask from wild GM is a top 6c , Or high 1st with a top 6c

        Wild GM has made it clear he has no problem with doing 4 & 4 if his asking price isn't met
        Feb. 28, 2021 at 6:43 p.m.
        #14
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        Quoting: TraeYoung
        So based on Dumba being a ideal second pairing RD and having 3 years remaining, what would your offer be?


        Not much tbh. I would really be after Dumba. I’d want a big guy with shutdown capabilities who can also move the puck. Dumba doesn’t cross of 2 of those boxes to me. Therefore, he isn’t worth the price to the jets. However, if he was what we are looking for (ie if he had more size and was better in his own end), I’d consider parting with Samberg for him. However, I’d only consider it. My package would likely be: Stanley, harkins, and a 1st at most. Maybe the fact that he’s not what we are looking for is clouding my view there.
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        Feb. 28, 2021 at 7:20 p.m.
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        Quoting: arafay
        Not much tbh. I would really be after Dumba. I’d want a big guy with shutdown capabilities who can also move the puck. Dumba doesn’t cross of 2 of those boxes to me. Therefore, he isn’t worth the price to the jets. However, if he was what we are looking for (ie if he had more size and was better in his own end), I’d consider parting with Samberg for him. However, I’d only consider it. My package would likely be: Stanley, harkins, and a 1st at most. Maybe the fact that he’s not what we are looking for is clouding my view there.


        You are 100% right that Dumba is not a shut down guy. He is, however, much better in his own end than is to believed from how people talk about him. Part of his lack in production after coming back from injury last year was because of a greater focus on play in his own end. This year he has really rounded out his game while remaining an offensive threat.

        If MIN asked for a 1st, Vesalainen, and Copp/Lowry, what more would need to come back to WPG?
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        Feb. 28, 2021 at 7:21 p.m.
        #16
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        Quoting: jnowariak
        You are 100% right that Dumba is not a shut down guy. He is, however, much better in his own end than is to believed from how people talk about him. Part of his lack in production after coming back from injury last year was because of a greater focus on play in his own end. This year he has really rounded out his game while remaining an offensive threat.

        If MIN asked for a 1st, Vesalainen, and Copp/Lowry, what more would need to come back to WPG?


        Nothing. That would be the deal. Minnesota adds nothing to that.
        Feb. 28, 2021 at 7:23 p.m.
        #17
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        Quoting: Caerii
        Nothing. That would be the deal. Minnesota adds nothing to that.


        I think Copp/Lowry needs something to equalize the deal. Vesalainen and a 1st isn’t enough but adding one of those guys probably makes it swing too far to the Wild. Not by much, but enough to keep it from going through.
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        Feb. 28, 2021 at 7:25 p.m.
        #18
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        Edited Feb. 28, 2021 at 8:36 p.m.
        Quoting: jnowariak
        You are 100% right that Dumba is not a shut down guy. He is, however, much better in his own end than is to believed from how people talk about him. Part of his lack in production after coming back from injury last year was because of a greater focus on play in his own end. This year he has really rounded out his game while remaining an offensive threat.

        If MIN asked for a 1st, Vesalainen, and Copp/Lowry, what more would need to come back to WPG?


        I would hope if Minnesota asks for Winnipeg's 1st that the Jets would say no thanks and move on. Dumba just doesn't fit the type of defenseman Winnipeg needs, so I'd rather keep the 1st.
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        Feb. 28, 2021 at 7:25 p.m.
        #19
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        Quoting: jnowariak
        I think Copp/Lowry needs something to equalize the deal. Vesalainen and a 1st isn’t enough but adding one of those guys probably makes it swing too far to the Wild.


        Then we don't need Copp or Lowry. Bottom 6 players are easy enough to find. They can add something else to make the cap work.
        Feb. 28, 2021 at 7:27 p.m.
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        Quoting: Windjammer
        I would hope if Minnesota asks for Winnipeg's 1st that the Jets would say no thanks and move on. Dumba just doesn't fit the type of defenseman Winnipeg needs, so is rather keep the 1st.


        A RHD shutdown guy is more of the need?
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        Feb. 28, 2021 at 7:30 p.m.
        #21
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        Quoting: Caerii
        Then we don't need Copp or Lowry. Bottom 6 players are easy enough to find. They can add something else to make the cap work.


        I’m only asking because I’ve got bigger ideas. There’s no fit in MIN for those guys, I agree.
        Feb. 28, 2021 at 7:30 p.m.
        #22
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        Quoting: jnowariak
        A RHD shutdown guy is more of the need?


        Yes, preferably one with size. The Jets don't need more offense, they need a guy that can keep the front of the net clear and shutdown the other teams scorers.
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        Feb. 28, 2021 at 7:33 p.m.
        #23
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        Quoting: Windjammer
        Yes, preferably one with size. The Jets don't need more offense, they need a guy that can keep the front of the net clear and shutdown the other teams scorers.


        That makes sense. Dumba would fit like a glove in WPG from the little I know but Pionk has been good this year too.
        Feb. 28, 2021 at 7:35 p.m.
        #24
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        Quoting: jnowariak
        I’m only asking because I’ve got bigger ideas. There’s no fit in MIN for those guys, I agree.


        I would be interested in hearing about the other ideas. Because I don't see what kind of reasoning there would be to add any additional value for a bottom 6 player. That deal is already light enough as is with how underwhelming Vesalainen is.
        Feb. 28, 2021 at 8:15 p.m.
        #25
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        Quoting: jnowariak
        You are 100% right that Dumba is not a shut down guy. He is, however, much better in his own end than is to believed from how people talk about him. Part of his lack in production after coming back from injury last year was because of a greater focus on play in his own end. This year he has really rounded out his game while remaining an offensive threat.

        If MIN asked for a 1st, Vesalainen, and Copp/Lowry, what more would need to come back to WPG?


        Quoting: Windjammer
        I would hope if Minnesota asks for Winnipeg's 1st that the Jets would say no thanks and move on. Dumba just doesn't fit the type of defenseman Winnipeg needs, so is rather keep the 1st.


        I wouldn’t do it tbh. For that price, it simply isn’t worth it to the jets. No knock on dumba, but he simply isn’t what we’re looking for
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