Worst Case Scenario if EJ Doesnt Waive NMC

Forums/Armchair-GM

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Created by: UpsideDownQue

Team: 2021-22 Colorado Avalanche

Initial Creation Date: Mar. 17, 2021

Published: Mar. 17, 2021

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

If EJ doesnt waive his NMC he's gotta be bought out. No chance the Avs are losing Makar/Toews/Girard and they wouldnt risk losing Burakovsky either in a 4F4D scenario

In this scenario if SEA takes Graves then the Avs look kinda thin on RD. Girard could move to the right side but I think adding a shutdown RD would be a better solution, Ive already noticed a few times where Girard has been put in awkward positions trying to keep the puck in the offensive zone on his backhand and would rather just keep him on his natural side. Savard seems like a perfect fit and could be traded down the line if Timmins/Barron/Helleson are capable of taking a top 4 spot. Im not sure if he would sign for the same AAV though

Honestly im not sure what kind of term Makar would be looking for but im just gonna assume its a long term one. 9M AAV makes him the 4th highest paid D man in the league and locks him up until hes 30. Realistically he could instead opt for a bridge deal and the Avs would make that work if needed.

Landeskog gets 7x7, putting him above guys like Kreider and Gallagher which I think is reasonable. Ideally 5-6 years would be better term for the team but the extra year may help keep the AAV down a bit.

Grubauer is proving he is a fantastic starter and gets compensated for it. Signs an identical deal to what Varlamov got in NYI

Saad signs after UFA begins and takes (an admittedly team-friendly) 3x4.25M deal. He may get offered more elsewhere but I think he really likes playing in COL and may take a bit less to play here. If he signs then I think Donskoi or Compher would be moved to make room.

Free Agent Signings

RESERVE LIST	YEARS	CAP HIT
Newhook, Alex	3	$925,000
Foudy, Jean-Luc	3	$925,000
Barron, Justin	3	$925,000
Beaucage, Alex	3	$925,000
Burzan, Luka	3	$850,000
Mutala, Sasha	3	$850,000

RFA	YEARS	CAP HIT
Gilbert, Dennis	1	$874,125
Timmins, Conor	1	$874,125
Werner, Adam	1	$813,750
Jost, Tyson	2	$1,500,000
Jones, Peyton	1	$750,000
Makar, Cale	8	$9,000,000

UFA	YEARS	CAP HIT
Grubauer, Philipp	4	$5,000,000
Landeskog, Gabriel	7	$7,000,000
Saad, Brandon	3	$4,250,000
Savard, David	3	$4,250,000
Burroughs, Kyle	1	$750,000
Megna, Jayson	1	$750,000

Trades

COL

Protection List:
MacKinnon
Landeskog
Rantanen
Kadri
Burakovsky
Nichushkin
Jost

Makar
Toews
Girard

Grubauer

Assuming both Grubauer and Landeskog are extended before they reach UFA. I assume Saad could be left until July 1 (or whatever the UFA date is this year) and COL would still have a reasonable chance at signing him, but I would prioritize Landeskog and Grubauer's contracts

VGK

Graves, Ryan

Additional Details:

Expansion Draft

COL

Could be to any team

BUF

Compher, J.T.

Buyouts

Erik Johnson: $2,000,000

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2021
2022
2023

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
20	$81,500,000	$81,473,088	$1,741,463	$2,925,000	$26,912

Roster

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Landeskog, Gabriel $7,000,000$7,000,000 LW, C UFA - 8	MacKinnon, Nathan $6,300,000$6,300,000 C M-NTC UFA - 2	Rantanen, Mikko $9,250,000$9,250,000 RW, C UFA - 4
Saad, Brandon $4,250,000$4,250,000 LW, RW UFA - 5	Kadri, Nazem $4,500,000$4,500,000 C M-NTC UFA - 1	Burakovsky, André $4,900,000$4,900,000 RW, LW UFA - 1
Nichushkin, Valeri $2,500,000$2,500,000 RW, LW UFA - 1	Newhook, Alex $925,000$925,000 C, LW RFA - 2	Donskoi, Joonas $3,900,000$3,900,000 RW UFA - 2
O'Connor, Logan $725,000$725,000 RW, LW UFA - 1	Jost, Tyson $1,500,000$1,500,000 C UFA - 2	Kaut, Martin $863,333$863,333 ($425,000$425K) RW RFA - 2

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Toews, Devon $4,100,000$4,100,000 LD UFA - 3	Makar, Cale $9,000,000$9,000,000 RD UFA - 6	Grubauer, Philipp $5,000,000$5,000,000 G UFA - 6
Girard, Samuel $5,000,000$5,000,000 LD/RD UFA - 6	Savard, David $4,250,000$4,250,000 RD UFA - 4	Francouz, Pavel $2,000,000$2,000,000 G UFA - 1
Byram, Bowen $894,167$894,167 ($2,500,000$2M) LD/RD RFA - 2	Timmins, Conor $874,125$874,125 RD RFA - 2

Taxi Squad
Gilbert, Dennis $874,125$874,125 ($0$0$0$0) LD UFA - 1
Bowers, Shane $925,000$925,000 ($0$0$0$0) ($200,000$200K) C RFA - 1
Megna, Jayson $750,000$750,000 ($0$0$0$0) C, LW, RW UFA - 2
Burroughs, Kyle $750,000$750,000 ($0$0$0$0) LD/RD UFA - 2
Miska, Hunter $725,000$725,000 ($0$0$0$0) G UFA - 1
MacDonald, Jacob $725,000$725,000 ($0$0$0$0) LD/RD UFA - 1

Special Teams

Power Play 1
Landeskog, G.		Kadri, N.		Rantanen, M.
	MacKinnon, N.		Makar, C.

Power Play 2
Saad, B.		Newhook, A.		Burakovsky, A.
	Toews, D.		Girard, S.

Penalty Kill 1
	Jost, T.	O'Connor, L.
	Toews, D.	Savard, D.

Penalty Kill 2
	Nichushkin, V.	Donskoi, J.
	Byram, B.	Makar, C.

Mar. 17, 2021 at 3:19 p.m.

Mediumyeet

Joined: Oct. 2020

Posts: 3,616

Likes: 1,319

Honestly I don’t think it would be the worst idea to let landeskog stay an FA until after expansion. Frees up another protection as long as both sides know that landeskog is going to stay in Colorado and I’m pretty confident that is the case

Mar. 17, 2021 at 3:21 p.m.

Jetman

Jetsfan

Joined: Sep. 2017

Posts: 7,983

Likes: 2,589

Are NMC's able to be bought out?

Mar. 17, 2021 at 3:21 p.m.

coga16

Joined: Jun. 2015

Posts: 20,030

Likes: 12,187

Quoting: Mediumyeet

that might be the worst thing the avs could do, you do not let a player get tempted by legal tampering periods. Do not put that voodoo out there...bc Seattle could talk to him and say we would pay you 8.5m a season...now the avs have a competition to increase their offer

You sign the deal with him and you dont play games

GMs liked this.

Mar. 17, 2021 at 3:22 p.m.

coga16

Joined: Jun. 2015

Posts: 20,030

Likes: 12,187

Quoting: Jetman

Are NMC's able to be bought out?

yes

Mar. 17, 2021 at 3:22 p.m.

UpsideDownQue

Thread Starter

Joined: Aug. 2017

Posts: 8,440

Likes: 6,060

Quoting: Mediumyeet

In theory that would be better if we knew Landeskog would sign, but tbh I wouldnt risk it. In an ideal world they would do that with Landeskog, Saad, and Grubauer but in all scenarios I think SEA would take Graves anyway

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Mar. 17, 2021 at 3:22 p.m.

UpsideDownQue

Thread Starter

Joined: Aug. 2017

Posts: 8,440

Likes: 6,060

Quoting: Jetman

Are NMC's able to be bought out?

yes

Mar. 17, 2021 at 3:28 p.m.

JayTea

14m in dead cap

Joined: Mar. 2019

Posts: 3,578

Likes: 3,058

Quoting: Jetman

Are NMC's able to be bought out?

I couldn't find a quick answer by searching, but before they changed the dates on the league year the expansion draft was the end of June and under a normal year, the 1st buyout window opens June 15th or 48 hours after the Cup is awarded so teams should be able to buy someone out before the draft if they want.

Mar. 17, 2021 at 3:32 p.m.

Jetman

Jetsfan

Joined: Sep. 2017

Posts: 7,983

Likes: 2,589

Quoting: JayTea

For sure that they can buy a player out before the draft...I just wasnt sure if you could buy out a NMC as you can't waive them and send them to the AHL and whatnot

JayTea liked this.

Mar. 17, 2021 at 3:33 p.m.

West_Virginia_Take_Me_Home

Joined: Jun. 2020

Posts: 1,437

Likes: 374

I can't see Makar getting that type of deal

TJTwolf liked this.

Mar. 17, 2021 at 3:40 p.m.

#10

JayTea

14m in dead cap

Joined: Mar. 2019

Posts: 3,578

Likes: 3,058

Quoting: Jetman

For sure that they can buy a player out before the draft...I just wasnt sure if you could buy out a NMC as you can't waive them and send them to the AHL and whatnot

I wasn't sure if a buyout window would be available prior to the draft.

Mar. 17, 2021 at 3:50 p.m.

#11

The_Rocket

Judd Bracket ripoff

Joined: Jul. 2019

Posts: 6,928

Likes: 3,575

Quoting: Jetman

Are NMC's able to be bought out?

Quoting: coga16

yes

From what I understand, a player has to be placed on unconditional waivers prior to being bought out. I believe a no movement clause allows the player to reject being placed on waivers, which means they can reject being bought out. So if he won’t waive for ED, I doubt he would waive to be bought out

Mar. 17, 2021 at 3:53 p.m.

#12

Anus_McLeod

Joined: Apr. 2020

Posts: 3,579

Likes: 3,440

I can't see them buying him out. I think they would trade him with max retention, work out a side deal wirh Seattle, or even just lose Burakovsky before they did that.

Personally I think he'll waive though and it will be moot.

Mar. 17, 2021 at 3:54 p.m.

#13

coga16

Joined: Jun. 2015

Posts: 20,030

Likes: 12,187

Quoting: The_Rocket

thats incorrect, Corey Perry had a full NMC and was just bought out, patrick Marleau was a +35 contract with a full NMC and was bought out. Lundqvist and Bobby Ryan...NMCs, bought out

NMCs do no protect you from buyouts

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Mar. 17, 2021 at 3:59 p.m.

#14

The_Rocket

Judd Bracket ripoff

Joined: Jul. 2019

Posts: 6,928

Likes: 3,575

Quoting: coga16

thats incorrect, Corey Perry had a full NMC and was just bought out, patrick Marleau was a +35 contract with a full NMC and was bought out. Lundqvist and Bobby Ryan...NMCs, bought
NMCs do no protect you from buyouts

Oh okay then. I know Marleau had waived his NMC to be bought out which is why I thought a player had to agree to it in order to be bought out. Hadn’t considered the other examples

Mar. 17, 2021 at 4:02 p.m.

#15

coga16

Joined: Jun. 2015

Posts: 20,030

Likes: 12,187

Quoting: The_Rocket

Oh okay then. I know Marleau had waived his NMC to be bought out which is why I thought a player had to agree to it in order to be bought out. Hadn’t considered the other examples

if its inseason and they are terminating the contract thats one thing...but in the buyout period you can buyout as needed
they player can reject being waived during the buyout period bc of their NMC in fear of being claimed and proceed to the buyout process. But the buyout is happening one way or another

The_Rocket liked this.

Mar. 17, 2021 at 4:10 p.m.

#16

Foppa21

Joined: Jan. 2017

Posts: 1,529

Likes: 1,070

@moli92 @coga16 I feel like Grubauer will get at least what Binnington just signed for in the $6 x 6. No?

Mar. 17, 2021 at 4:12 p.m.

#17

coga16

Joined: Jun. 2015

Posts: 20,030

Likes: 12,187

Quoting: Foppa21

moli92 coga16 I feel like Grubauer will get at least what Binnington just signed for in the $6 x 6. No?

Im thinking 5.5m is the sweet spot.

Lehner got 5x5, Binnington and Markstrom got 6x6. So somewhere in between based on terms. 5-5.5mx6 or 5.5-6mx5.
I just dont think his resume is as solid to get a full 6x6 in comparison but if it takes 6x6 you do it

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Mar. 17, 2021 at 4:21 p.m.

#18

GMs

Joined: Jul. 2019

Posts: 14,042

Likes: 5,158

I like everything you did here
The only things I doubt are the years Saad Savard Grubauer signed
Saad will use Toffoli as a comparable (4 years 4.25M)
Savard will get at least 4 years
Grubauer probably 5-6 years

UpsideDownQue liked this.

Mar. 17, 2021 at 4:33 p.m.

#19

UpsideDownQue

Thread Starter

Joined: Aug. 2017

Posts: 8,440

Likes: 6,060

Quoting: Foppa21

moli92 coga16 I feel like Grubauer will get at least what Binnington just signed for in the $6 x 6. No?

Binnington gets the stanley cup boost just like Murray did. Both of those are bad contracts imo. I think 5M is fair for Gru, hes been solid but in a relatively small number of games

The only knock against Grubauer is that he hasnt had the volume starts like many other goalies have (which is not entirely his fault, hes had some injuries and is now part of 2 shortened seasons which limits his GP). Hes been a workhorse this year but its still only been 23 games for him. The most hes played in an NHL season is 37, thats gonna hold him back from the 6M range imo

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