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Just a dumb random thought

Created by: BeterChiarelli
Team: 2021-22 Edmonton Oilers
Initial Creation Date: Mar. 19, 2021
Published: Mar. 19, 2021
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
Oilers fans, myself included, seem befuddled regarding Barrie's long-term presence on this club. Something regarding Barrie, Bear, Bouchard, Larrson, and there only being three "spots" for a right-handed defender.

If Holland does want to sign him and he's willing to sign a club-friendly deal (hopefully Larsson does as well), is reviving the Bouchard-Bear pairing an option? The one game they played together featured ridiculous shot metrics (Koskinen couldn't stop a beach ball that game).

I've been locked into the lefty-righty paradigm for a while: we don't often see clubs try righties on their off-side because most clubs don't have that kind of surplus. Is it an option - at least for a season - until Broberg and Samorukov make the transition to the NHL? A midseason return from Klefbom makes that a surprisingly competent defense corps, assuming he takes over for Lagesson.
Free Agent Signings
RESERVE LISTYEARSCAP HIT
3$825,000
3$825,000
3$925,000
3$825,000
2$925,000
2$925,000
3$775,000
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
2$1,250,000
2$1,000,000
2$850,000
2$850,000
3$3,000,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
4$4,750,000
1$1,500,000
4$4,000,000
3$3,000,000
6$6,500,000
1$3,000,000
Trades
1.
EDM
    Seattle
    2.
    EDM
      Waivers
      3.
      EDM
      1. 2021 2nd round pick (EDM)
      2. 2021 2nd round pick (NYR)
      Additional Details:
      Happens at the 2021 Draft:

      EDM 1st: 23rd overall
      NYR 2nd: 45th overall
      EDM 2nd: 55th overall
      DET
      1. Neal, James ($2,000,000 retained)
      2. 2021 1st round pick (EDM)
      Additional Details:
      Draft pick values suggest that Edmonton is leaving value equivalent to the #39 pick on the table in this deal: instead of asking for the much higher DET 2nd, Edmonton uses that gap in value to shed Neal with his buyout hit retained.

      Term and a lower hit considered, it's not far off in value from the Staal dump.
      4.
      EDM
      1. Merzlikins, Elvis
      2. Pyyhtiä, Mikael [Reserve List]
      3. 2022 4th round pick (CBJ)
      CBJ
      1. Benson, Tyler [RFA Rights]
      2. 2022 1st round pick (EDM)
      Buyouts
      Retained Salary Transactions
      Buried
      DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
      2021
      Logo of the NYR
      Logo of the EDM
      Logo of the EDM
      Logo of the EDM
      Logo of the PIT
      Logo of the EDM
      2022
      Logo of the EDM
      Logo of the EDM
      Logo of the EDM
      Logo of the CBJ
      Logo of the EDM
      Logo of the EDM
      Logo of the EDM
      2023
      Logo of the EDM
      Logo of the EDM
      Logo of the EDM
      Logo of the EDM
      Logo of the EDM
      Logo of the EDM
      Logo of the EDM
      ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
      22$81,500,000$80,107,672$669,339$850,000$1,392,328

      Roster

      Left WingCentreRight Wing
      $4,000,000$4,000,000
      LW, RW
      UFA - 4
      Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
      $12,500,000$12,500,000
      C
      UFA - 5
      Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
      $1,175,000$1,175,000
      RW
      UFA - 1
      Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
      $6,500,000$6,500,000
      LW, C
      UFA - 8
      Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
      $8,500,000$8,500,000
      C, LW
      UFA - 4
      Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
      $3,000,000$3,000,000
      RW
      RFA - 1
      Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
      $1,250,000$1,250,000
      LW, RW, C
      UFA
      $3,000,000$3,000,000
      C
      UFA
      Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
      $3,200,000$3,200,000
      RW
      UFA - 3
      Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
      $1,000,000$1,000,000
      LW, C
      UFA - 2
      $1,500,000$1,500,000
      C, RW, LW
      UFA - 2
      Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
      $1,500,000$1,500,000
      RW, LW
      UFA - 1
      Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
      Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
      $5,600,000$5,600,000
      LD
      UFA - 1
      Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
      $4,750,000$4,750,000
      RD
      UFA - 3
      Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
      $4,000,000$4,000,000
      G
      UFA - 1
      Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
      $863,333$863,333 (Performance Bonus$850,000$850K)
      RD
      RFA - 2
      Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
      $2,000,000$2,000,000
      RD
      UFA - 1
      Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
      $4,500,000$4,500,000
      G
      M-NTC
      UFA - 1
      Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
      $725,000$725,000
      LD/RD
      UFA - 1
      Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
      $3,000,000$3,000,000
      RD
      UFA - 4
      ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
      Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
      $1,250,000$1,250,000
      LD/RD
      UFA - 1
      Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
      $4,167,000$4,167,000
      LD
      M-NTC
      UFA - 2
      Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
      $850,000$850,000
      C, RW
      UFA - 1

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      Mar. 19, 2021 at 12:49 p.m.
      #1
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      Even with neal retained I don't want him.
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      Mar. 19, 2021 at 12:55 p.m.
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      Quoting: Jfstompers
      Even with neal retained I don't want him.


      Good for you. Still need to hit the cap floor and you're getting him for the value of the #39 pick. If you want to run the arithmetic yourself: https://bluebulletreport.com/2020/10/05/2020-nhl-draft-rankings/

      I'll fully concede that it doesn't make sense for the Red Wings to give up three picks to acquire the Edmonton 1st rounder, but that value still needs to be met elsewhere. Both teams have something to gain from making the swap of picks. Detroit should be looking for quality, and Edmonton quantity.

      The Red Wing's options then are to include a player with value or take back a negative value. It's not even a matter of opinion, it's just math. I don't believe Neal's sub-$4M hit impedes the Red Wings finances in any shape or form. His veteran presence and PP utility offers at least something to a team not expected to finish rebuilding for another 2-4 years.

      The deal's fine.
      Mar. 19, 2021 at 1:12 p.m.
      #3
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      Quoting: BeterChiarelli
      Good for you. Still need to hit the cap floor and you're getting him for the value of the #39 pick. If you want to run the arithmetic yourself: https://bluebulletreport.com/2020/10/05/2020-nhl-draft-rankings/

      I'll fully concede that it doesn't make sense for the Red Wings to give up three picks to acquire the Edmonton 1st rounder, but that value still needs to be met elsewhere. Both teams have something to gain from making the swap of picks. Detroit should be looking for quality, and Edmonton quantity.

      The Red Wing's options then are to include a player with value or take back a negative value. It's not even a matter of opinion, it's just math. I don't believe Neal's sub-$4M hit impedes the Red Wings finances in any shape or form. His veteran presence and PP utility offers at least something to a team not expected to finish rebuilding for another 2-4 years.

      The deal's fine.


      I didnt say anything about the deal, maybe they take it, I dont like the player I don't want him is what I said.
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      Mar. 19, 2021 at 1:18 p.m.
      #4
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      Quoting: Jfstompers
      I didnt say anything about the deal, maybe they take it, I dont like the player I don't want him is what I said.


      Which is fine, but I'm not particularly interested in subjective criticism, especially the kind that actually breaks the rules and doesn't offer anything constructive. I don't care to warn/infract you for it in this case, but please make note that such empty replies are beginning to be looked down upon and cracked down on.
      Mar. 19, 2021 at 1:35 p.m.
      #5
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      Yzerman laugh Neal with $2,000,000 retention and the Oilers 2021 1st round pick doesn't net you the 45th and 55th OA pick. Neal is a worthless cap dump to us there's noway he'd even make our lineup he'd be spending the next 2 years or so in GR. The 2021 NHL draft is basically meh after the top 10 so i doubt Yzerman does this trade. Detroit would easily pass Yzerman would probably want the Oilers 2022 1st round pick instead with a better draft.
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      Mar. 19, 2021 at 1:44 p.m.
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      Marc Staal, was 3.2M in actual cash and Yzerman intended to utilize him so you can subtract at least league minimum (700k) from that contract to determine the actual cash utilized to obtain that second rounder.

      If we’re talking buyout like the description implies then we’re talking deadcap/cash which is Marleau not Staal. We’re talking 7.6M in actual cash through 4 years but with the retention (~34%) we’re talking roughly 5.77M displaced versus Marleau’s 4M.
      Mar. 19, 2021 at 1:49 p.m.
      #7
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      Quoting: DiehardRedWingsFan58
      Yzerman laugh Neal with $2,000,000 retention and the Oilers 2021 1st round pick doesn't net you the 45th and 55th OA pick. Neal is a worthless cap dump to us there's noway he'd even make our lineup he'd be spending the next 2 years or so in GR. The 2021 NHL draft is basically meh after the top 10 so i doubt Yzerman does this trade. Detroit would easily pass Yzerman would probably want the Oilers 2022 1st round pick instead with a better draft.


      It very much does, especially if we use the Marc Staal dump as a comparable.

      Here's where I'll generate the values of the draft picks in question:

      https://bluebulletreport.com/2020/10/05/2020-nhl-draft-rankings/

      The 23rd overall pick has a value of 13.01. The values of the two second round picks are 4.63 and 4.34 respectively. The difference in these values is equivalent to that of the #39 overall pick.

      If Edmonton and Detroit want to make a deal involving these picks at the draft as it benefits both clubs (Red Wings quality, Edmonton quantity), then that gap in value needs to be met.

      Marc Staal, with nearly double the cap hit (after retention) and an NMC that the Red Wings are still honouring, warranted the return of the #45 pick. Neal may have an extra year of term, but does not come with a NMC and has less than half of the cap hit if the Red Wings do opt to bury him. His value in this trade is sufficient to bridge the gap in what Edmonton is not receiving. It's ridiculous to assume Detroit would send all three of it's seconds to Edmonton in order to take Edmonton's 1st and a midround pick, but Detroit taking negative value equivalent to that #39 pick is still very plausible. In fact, it makes more sense for the Red Wings than offering excessive draft capital.

      You're absolutely correct in recognizing that Neal is a cap dump: not one at face value, but a dump nonetheless. The problem is, Detroit still needs to meet the cap floor. Offering UFA's exorbitant sums of money in free agency to bridge that difference doesn't happen either: we're still yet to see a club do it despite repeated citations from Wings, Sens, Devils, and Kings fans. Cap dumps are how rebuilding teams secure draft capital. You believe there's a drop off after pick #10? Show me. All of the draft analyses I've seen have it around 15 and following trends set by previous drafts, and then there's the typical mile-wide drop off after the first round.

      Year-over-year, math tells us you're borderline guaranteed to get a better player at #23 than at either #45 or #55. That player is likely NHL ready sooner, and the combination of the two second rounders won't have a greater affect on production until either a decade post-draft if at all. I could see Edmonton adding a very, very small piece to make this deal happen. Something around Cairns, Safin, or one of Edmonton's 6th round picks. The value is very, very close. Asking for the 2022 1st round pick is nonsensical for the Oilers. Please operate within realistic boundaries.
      Mar. 19, 2021 at 1:52 p.m.
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      Quoting: BStinson
      Marc Staal, was 3.2M in actual cash and Yzerman intended to utilize him so you can subtract at least league minimum (700k) from that contract to determine the actual cash utilized to obtain that second rounder.

      If we’re talking buyout like the description implies then we’re talking deadcap/cash which is Marleau not Staal. We’re talking 7.6M in actual cash through 4 years but with the retention (~34%) we’re talking roughly 5.77M displaced versus Marleau’s 4M.


      Edmonton retains what it would cost to buy Neal out today in order to avoid the extra 2 years of a $2M hit, not to actually factor in a buyout.

      Neither Detroit nor Edmonton are cash-poor teams. Looking at this through the lens of actual dollars owed is nonsensical. It's strictly about cap hits in this case.
      Mar. 19, 2021 at 2:02 p.m.
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      Quoting: BeterChiarelli
      Edmonton retains what it would cost to buy Neal out today in order to avoid the extra 2 years of a $2M hit, not to actually factor in a buyout.

      Neither Detroit nor Edmonton are cash-poor teams. Looking at this through the lens of actual dollars owed is nonsensical. It's strictly about cap hits in this case.

      The NHL is a business so you have to look at both cap hit and cash. Abdelkader was bought out to save roughly 1.8M in cash IIRC. Chris Illitch is in charge now and we haven’t seen him “open” his wallet really for some of these moves compared to Mike Illitch. The cash and cap are the same so we’re still talking roughly 5.77M cap through 4 years for Detroit even without the retention as it’s a % of the contract. You also have to factor in that draft pick is a later first rounder in a weaker draft. What’s the difference between a pick 23rd and 44 + 55 like you mention? I’d wager the odds of getting a NHLer is better with both of those second rounders per Dobber’s draft pick probability article (see below for source).

      https://www.dobberprospects.com/2020/05/16/nhl-draft-pick-probabilities/
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      Mar. 19, 2021 at 2:18 p.m.
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      Quoting: BStinson
      The NHL is a business so you have to look at both cap hit and cash. Abdelkader was bought out to save roughly 1.8M in cash IIRC. Chris Illitch is in charge now and we haven’t seen him “open” his wallet really for some of these moves compared to Mike Illitch. The cash and cap are the same so we’re still talking roughly 5.77M cap through 4 years for Detroit even without the retention as it’s a % of the contract. You also have to factor in that draft pick is a later first rounder in a weaker draft. What’s the difference between a pick 23rd and 44 + 55 like you mention? I’d wager the odds of getting a NHLer is better with both of those second rounders per Dobber’s draft pick probability article (see below for source).

      https://www.dobberprospects.com/2020/05/16/nhl-draft-pick-probabilities/


      I've double-checked your math and I believe the cash and cap Detroit would actually be on the hook for is $5M over 4 years. If Edmonton retains a total of $4M on the remaining salary ($2M, 2y), Neal's only left owing $7.5M. Two thirds of that is $5M, and given that he has no bonuses in his deal, that number over 4 years is just the strict hit of $1.25M annually. Edmonton is on the hook for the extra little bit if Neal is in fact bought out.

      In which case its either $7.5M over two years or $5M over 4.

      If we want to assume cash values instead of cap, I'll be fair and adjust my trade value accordingly. I will however take on the same exercise you did and account for a league-minimum contract to determine real cash. I'll assume a buyout and the idea that Edmonton wants to get the two seconds out of this deal as a minimum.

      Neal is owed 1.72x the real cash than Staal was and thus should cost that much more than Staal's dump. If the assumed value of the NYR pick is 4.63, the equivalent value for Neal should be 7.96. The value left owing from the swap of Edmonton's pick with the two seconds is 5.04, thus Edmonton has a difference of 2.92 to make up. Given that I'm not one to split hairs and Detroit wouldn't be taking any value out of Neal on their roster, I'll round up and concede that Edmonton owes Detroit something equivalent to the #71 pick.

      It's unlikely that the Oilers have a 3rd in that range over the course of the upcoming seasons. Does the Oilers 2022 3rd plus a low-end prospect (Matt Cairns) satisfy the value?

      EDIT: using the Dobber source you provided, I believe this gives Detroit an 80% chance (plus whatever Cairns factors to be) of an NHL player with both picks and Edmonton a 70% chance. Does that help further satisfy?
      Mar. 19, 2021 at 2:23 p.m.
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      Quoting: BeterChiarelli
      Edmonton retains what it would cost to buy Neal out today in order to avoid the extra 2 years of a $2M hit, not to actually factor in a buyout.

      Neither Detroit nor Edmonton are cash-poor teams. Looking at this through the lens of actual dollars owed is nonsensical. It's strictly about cap hits in this case.


      I'd rather keep the two 1sts and draft Sebastian Cossa with the 21 pick. A Neal buyout probably isn't necessary anyhow (you've overpaid Staal and Barrie shouldn't be coming back) and you can get better goalies on the UFA market without spending so much draft capital. A 2022 1st for a backup? No thanks!

      Past 1.5 years:
      Driedger: 23 starts, 2.24 GAA, .929
      Rask: 55 starts, 2.21 GAA, .923
      Halak: 42 starts, 2.29 GAA, .920
      Grubauer: 59 starts, 2.29 GAA, .919
      Merzlikins: 40 starts, 2.51 GAA, .919
      Raanta: 40 starts, 2.79 GAA, .919
      Ullmark: 46 starts, 2.63 GAA, .916
      Koskinen: 52 starts, 2.87 GAA, .913
      Stalock: 36 starts, 2.67 GAA, .910
      Mrazek: 42 starts, 2.57 GAA, .908

      If you look at some of the underlying numbers - 5v5 HDSv% for instance - Merzlikins looks even worse as he's clearly playing behind a team that makes a goalie's life easier than most:

      Rask: 6.44 HDSA/60, .852
      Grubauer: 7.44 HDSA/60, .852
      Driedger: 7.31 HDSA/60, .844
      Koskinen: 8.63 HDSA/60, .837
      Mrazek: 8.01 HDSA/60, .830
      Halak: 6.72 HDSA/60, .828
      Ullmark: 6.99 HDSA/60, .816
      Merzlikins: 6.14 HDSA/60, .815
      Raanta: 8.54 HDSA/60, .805
      Stalock: 5.18 HDSA/60, .797
      Mar. 19, 2021 at 2:25 p.m.
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      There are a lot of moving parts to that Wings trade. Are the wings simply looking to get to the floor over the next two years? Are they actually going to try and use Neal in any way or simply cap hit? I would wager that the wings will have zero trouble getting to the floor, either by taking on shorter term dumps (Ericksson type) or by signing place holders. The Wings have 36 million of cap hits currently, have to resign both Bert and Hronek and 12 other players. They will have no problem spending the 24 million or so to get to the floor, so that wont be a motivation for the Wings in this deal.

      The Wings are not going to trade for Neal to buy him out, he adds to much dead money for too long for that to be realistic.

      The value of the picks in question is highly dependent on the view of the draft class in question. I have no idea how the Wings view this draft class maybe it works cause the wings like a player that is expected to go in that mid 20's that they would like to get. But it could also be that wings think that there is better value in the 2nd round and have more shots at that. I can not tell you the value the wings how for this draft so chart of "pick value" will either. This year is even worse in that teams may not want to have fewer higher picks since there has been so little time for scouting.
      Mar. 19, 2021 at 2:26 p.m.
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      Quoting: BeterChiarelli
      I've double-checked your math and I believe the cash and cap Detroit would actually be on the hook for is $5M over 4 years. If Edmonton retains a total of $4M on the remaining salary ($2M, 2y), Neal's only left owing $7.5M. Two thirds of that is $5M, and given that he has no bonuses in his deal, that number over 4 years is just the strict hit of $1.25M annually. Edmonton is on the hook for the extra little bit if Neal is in fact bought out.

      In which case its either $7.5M over two years or $5M over 4.

      If we want to assume cash values instead of cap, I'll be fair and adjust my trade value accordingly. I will however take on the same exercise you did and account for a league-minimum contract to determine real cash. I'll assume a buyout and the idea that Edmonton wants to get the two seconds out of this deal as a minimum.

      Neal is owed 1.72x the real cash than Staal was and thus should cost that much more than Staal's dump. If the assumed value of the NYR pick is 4.63, the equivalent value for Neal should be 7.96. The value left owing from the swap of Edmonton's pick with the two seconds is 5.04, thus Edmonton has a difference of 2.92 to make up. Given that I'm not one to split hairs and Detroit wouldn't be taking any value out of Neal on their roster, I'll round up and concede that Edmonton owes Detroit something equivalent to the #71 pick.

      It's unlikely that the Oilers have a 3rd in that range over the course of the upcoming seasons. Does the Oilers 2022 3rd plus a low-end prospect (Matt Cairns) satisfy the value?

      EDIT: using the Dobber source you provided, I believe this gives Detroit an 80% chance (plus whatever Cairns factors to be) of an NHL player with both picks and Edmonton a 70% chance. Does that help further satisfy?

      I can pull the math shortly (out of the house at the moment). Used CF’s calculator prior to leaving and quick math using % retained vs AAV.

      Can you explain this portion a little?

      “ I will however take on the same exercise you did and account for a league-minimum contract to determine real cash. I'll assume a buyout and the idea that Edmonton wants to get the two seconds out of this deal as a minimum”

      The league minimum applies to Staal as he counts toward our roster as he was utilized. This isn’t the case for a buyout as its dead cap space like Marleau since you’d still need to roster another player to fill that vacancy.
      Mar. 19, 2021 at 2:42 p.m.
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      Quoting: BStinson
      I can pull the math shortly (out of the house at the moment). Used CF’s calculator prior to leaving and quick math using % retained vs AAV.

      Can you explain this portion a little?

      “ I will however take on the same exercise you did and account for a league-minimum contract to determine real cash. I'll assume a buyout and the idea that Edmonton wants to get the two seconds out of this deal as a minimum”

      The league minimum applies to Staal as he counts toward our roster as he was utilized. This isn’t the case for a buyout as its dead cap space like Marleau since you’d still need to roster another player to fill that vacancy.


      I'm assuming that the Wings would look to fill their - in this case - #4LW with a league-minimum player seeing that they still require one whether or not they buy out Neal. A minimum of $700k of Neal's money, just like in the case of Marc Staal, is still needed to ice a roster.

      The math is correct for what it's worth. The decimal value of the retention truncates and results in a rounding error and fails to account for what Edmonton would have against the cap in the case of a buyout. All Detroit's finances are tied up in the $7.5M left owed.

      Quoting: AirmanSD
      There are a lot of moving parts to that Wings trade. Are the wings simply looking to get to the floor over the next two years? Are they actually going to try and use Neal in any way or simply cap hit? I would wager that the wings will have zero trouble getting to the floor, either by taking on shorter term dumps (Ericksson type) or by signing place holders. The Wings have 36 million of cap hits currently, have to resign both Bert and Hronek and 12 other players. They will have no problem spending the 24 million or so to get to the floor, so that wont be a motivation for the Wings in this deal.

      The Wings are not going to trade for Neal to buy him out, he adds to much dead money for too long for that to be realistic.

      The value of the picks in question is highly dependent on the view of the draft class in question. I have no idea how the Wings view this draft class maybe it works cause the wings like a player that is expected to go in that mid 20's that they would like to get. But it could also be that wings think that there is better value in the 2nd round and have more shots at that. I can not tell you the value the wings how for this draft so chart of "pick value" will either. This year is even worse in that teams may not want to have fewer higher picks since there has been so little time for scouting.


      If I'm recalling this correctly, the assumed value of draft picks takes years of data into consideration, not just that particular draft year. It changes year over year due to players producing at various levels. I think it's explained in the link itself.

      I'm only operating on the pretense of a buyout for the sake of @BStinson's math: I personally believe that Neal has enough value to warrant a middle-ground (ie: one year on the roster, two years bought out at $1.25M per) approach. Even over 4 years, $1.25M isn't that much, especially for the Wings, so I'm not sure what you mean by "too much for too long".
      Mar. 19, 2021 at 2:54 p.m.
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      If I'm recalling this correctly, the assumed value of draft picks takes years of data into consideration, not just that particular draft year. It changes year over year due to players producing at various levels. I think it's explained in the link itself.


      I'm only operating on the pretense of a buyout for the sake of BStinson's math: I personally believe that Neal has enough value to warrant a middle-ground (ie: one year on the roster, two years bought out at $1.25M per) approach. Even over 4 years, $1.25M isn't that much, especially for the Wings, so I'm not sure what you mean by "too much for too long".[/quote]


      Yes but it still based on past years, and unlike most years this years draft might be the ultimate crap shoot, with the lack of scouting that could be done, and the lack of playing time for the prospects. Dead money for the wings has to include Abby's hit as well.
      Mar. 19, 2021 at 3:54 p.m.
      #16
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      A Bouchard - Bear pairing makes some sense. I recall Bear playing the left side for a game or 2 last season. They can both move freely on the ice without being restricted to one side. Would be a very elite puck moving, offense driving pair that grows well defensively going forward

      Btw, its crazy how much people on the receiving team of a Neal dump will argue a hypothetical trade. There's only so many teams looking to make a run at the cup that have a bad contract and would be willing to spend assets to dump it. Theres quite a few teams looking to get paid to take on salary and not many willing to pay to unload it.

      Realistically, teams I could see spending to unload contract are: EDM (Neal), Tampa (Johnson?), Carolina (Gardiner/Skjei). Maybe you could make an argument for another team or 2.

      Teams that would likely be willing to take on cap: Seattle, Chicago, Anaheim, Ottawa, Detroit, LA, NJD, and several potential rebulders this summer: Pittsburgh, CBJ, Arizona, Nashville, Dallas, etc..

      The market is clearly shifted towards teams with contracts to unload. The cost could be surprisingly low
      Mar. 19, 2021 at 4:32 p.m.
      #17
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      Quoting: BeterChiarelli
      I'm assuming that the Wings would look to fill their - in this case - #4LW with a league-minimum player seeing that they still require one whether or not they buy out Neal. A minimum of $700k of Neal's money, just like in the case of Marc Staal, is still needed to ice a roster.

      The math is correct for what it's worth. The decimal value of the retention truncates and results in a rounding error and fails to account for what Edmonton would have against the cap in the case of a buyout. All Detroit's finances are tied up in the $7.5M left owed.



      If I'm recalling this correctly, the assumed value of draft picks takes years of data into consideration, not just that particular draft year. It changes year over year due to players producing at various levels. I think it's explained in the link itself.

      I'm only operating on the pretense of a buyout for the sake of BStinson's math: I personally believe that Neal has enough value to warrant a middle-ground (ie: one year on the roster, two years bought out at $1.25M per) approach. Even over 4 years, $1.25M isn't that much, especially for the Wings, so I'm not sure what you mean by "too much for too long".

      Did the math before refreshing the page but the buyout math you posted is correct.

      2M retention = 2/5.75 = .35

      Detroit’s side 1 - .35 = .65

      Since it’s just straight salary (2/3 buyout)
      11.5 * 2/3 = $7,666,667

      Detroit cash = $7,666,667 * .65 = $4,983,333.55
      Edmonton cash = $7,666,667 * .35 = $2,683,333.45

      “I'm assuming that the Wings would look to fill their - in this case - #4LW with a league-minimum player seeing that they still require one whether or not they buy out Neal. A minimum of $700k of Neal's money, just like in the case of Marc Staal, is still needed to ice a roster.”

      It’s a different scenario though as Marc Staal is playing for Detroit and therefore fills a roster spot which is why you can subtract league min (700k) as he fills that spot and NYR paid his signing bonus. Neal in this scenario is being bought out and not filling that roster spot. I can see the argument that PV > FV but then the opposite could be said about the 20% escrow but that’s probably moot for this discussion as they probably offset or is immaterial.

      As for the draft position trading back and using Marleau’s 4M buyout as a reference I’d imagine this trade would come down to roughly the equivalent of a bubble-playoff team’s first round pick. This is under the assumption that Marleau’s buyout was roughly 4M cash but it was a lump sum vs spread out over 4 years. The spread out payments though is 5M but that would account for interest. This is also under the assumption that the team is willing to open their wallet considering Marleau’s was pre-pandemic. I know Detroit’s net income was ~31M last year so I’d hope they’d do it but I haven’t seen Chris Illitch do it yet as the rest of his portfolio I’ve been told took a Covid hit.

      Thanks for the discussion too, I really appreciate the dialogue which usually isn’t this positive or engaged on the site.
      BeterChiarelli liked this.
       
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