I think this deal makes sense for both teams in the offseason but before the expansion draft. But I wonder if Guerin would be trying to get more for Dumba, and I don't see why Arizona would add. This also assumes Guerin likes Schmaltz, which, who knows. But on paper this is good for both teams.

I think the "fairness" of this deal is driven by the perception that Dumba is an underperforming offensive defenseman that is slightly overpaid, which the analytics don't support since his return in the bubble. Schmaltz is a winger masquerading at C and IS overpaid on a long term deal. I'm willing to listen to Schmaltz being a comparable level player, even if I disagree, but the Wild need to shed his cap hit with any trade.

You're not going to "shed" $6M in this economic climate. You'll be taking money back. If that money can be a 2C, even better. If you have to lose one of Foligno, Hartman, Greenway because of it, fine.

Fair enough. Crazy he got that deal in the first place though I do think he could make it at center, especially between kap and zucc. He’s creative enough and can finish. To me he’s like a quicker, more creative Kunin but could potentially play C more often than not

A pick and a prospect is how you shed it. If you do it out of season teams approach it like FA. 2 years at 6 mil of Dumba should be attractive for teams that need an RHD in the off-season. They get him in his prime and aren’t locked in on a long term deal for a guy that will be 35 when his deal is done.

I really don't think AZ needs or wants to make this trade before the expansion draft. Their situation is good right now. They've haven't left themselves exposed to lose quality assets for free like MIN has. I 100% understand why MIN wants to do this before the expansion draft...they're about to lose Dumba for nothing.

Yeah, I know he’s the creative type but I would argue that you could get Strome from CHI for less, on a better contract, and he would provide the same outcome even if he can’t skate as well as Schmaltz.

They're not going to lose Dumba for nothing.

How? Is your plan to protect 8 players? You have (3) NMCs on defense.

There is no incentive to expose Dumba. If it’s a top pair D or a 3rd liner, you lose the 3rd liner. I don’t think that’s controversial.

Yes

Ok, who are you protecting?

Parise, Zuccarello, Eriksson Ek, Fiala
Suter, Spurgeon, Dumba, Brodin
Kahkonen

And there's a possibility, however small, that Parise may waive allowing us to keep Foligno or Greenway.

If all of the NMCs hold:

FWD - Zucc, Parise, JEE, Fiala
DEF - Suter, Spurgeon, Brodin, Dumba
G - Kahokanen

Expose - Greenway, Soucy, Foligno, Talbot

I would bet Parise waives and we protect Foligno. End of the day we lose Greenway. Hurts but not the worst.

I'd rather have Greenway than Dumba. Younger, Better player, Better contract, and still an RFA.

Top pair RD or 3rd line LW, hmmm, tough choice.

Greenway being the better player is definitely a "woke" take though.

I’m curious how you came to this conclusion. Dumba is a top pair RHD and Greenway is a 3rd liner.

He's 23 years old. He's got 20 points in 29 games. He's what most teams are looking for. A Power forward that can play on any line. ESPECIALLY, if your in the playoffs. He's exactly what you want more of. Dumba is replaceable, AND if you want him that bad, go sign him as a UFA after 2 more years.

He's on a 56 point pace through 29 games, I can already assure you that's not sustainable over a full year because he's been slowed down for about a month now. He CAN'T play on a 1st line, and putting him on the 2nd line should be as a last resort. He's not skilled enough offensively to be a consistent contributor. He's good at protecting the puck along the boards and that's about it. Defensively solid for a winger, his best use is as a third liner who can sometimes chip in offensively.

If he's a regular in your top 6, your team is going nowhere. Remember when Charlie Coyle had that 56 point season (coincidentally, also at 24) and it turned out he's actually just a 40 point player? Yeah, that's Greenway.

Who are we resigning in 2 years?

So I was curious about Greenway’s point production this year and it turns out he’s on his career average for goal scoring but his assist level has doubled. That would be great except for the fact that his 2 most common line mates, JEE and Foligno, are scoring with a shooting pct more than double their career average. Those points are luck driven.

So while his point production and increased drive to be a great 3rd liner are there, he’s still just a 3rd liner.

I'm not suggesting he'll ever be a Hart candidate. We just also need to be on the same page that Dumba isn't ever going to be a Norris candidate...because he won't ever be. Get the $6M in cap back is a big deal. He's definitely replaceable. Heck bring up Filip Johansson and allow him some time to develop. Greenway can bring in more options too. I think Rossi should have been the 4th player taken in the draft. If you want to have protection for him...Greenway could help his development too.

If we wanted protection for him, we’d trade for Crouse. We’ve seen he doesn’t care about humanity to protect his teammates.

I get you’re trolling at this point but what do you mean get the 6 mil in cap back? This deal locks us into roughly the same cap hit for 3 years longer than Dumba’s deal. Dumba may not be a Norris candidate, but he is top 10% at his position. That’s something Schmaltz is not. Flipping him for a 1st and a prospect is the easier thing to do.

You are referencing the article, fan proposal in which it said wild wouldn't, & Guerin has turned down better deals.

This would be a no from Minnesota wild side

I'm actually not at all trolling. But I can see how you might think that if you truly believe Dumba's in the top 10% in his position. Top 10% for a 1st pair RD means you think he's the 3rd or 4th best RD in the league.

I agree Schmaltz should be a winger, but AZ doesn't need to do anything. MIN needs to figure something out with their expansion list. They have not done a good job preparing for Seattle. That's my point. Forget anything about Schmaltz/Dumba. It's that MIN hasn't done a good job with Expansion and trading away a Dman is HARD because the acquiring team will be exposing someone else OR Dumba themselves. You only get 3 Dmen to protect if you go the preferred 7-3

I think you’re over thinking this. You protect the top pair defender over the 3rd liner everyday of the week. The expansion issue isn’t that bad. MIN doesn’t have enough top FWD to justify losing Dumba for nothing. I don’t think your desire for Greenway is unfounded but he’s not a top 6 guy as much as people want him to be. He is benefiting from perception the same way as Dumba is being hurt by it.

I take your point about top 10%, he’s a top pair guy on any team is what I’m trying to say. That’s worth 6 mil easy.