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Next year - take 2

Created by: Wildwinswhen
Team: 2021-22 Minnesota Wild
Initial Creation Date: Apr. 6, 2021
Published: Apr. 6, 2021
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
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What's the word on Lowry?
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
8$8,500,000
4$5,500,000
3$3,500,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
3$850,000
3$850,000
3$4,500,000
3$900,000
Trades
MIN
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    2021
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    ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
    20$81,500,000$68,650,000$0$1,350,000$12,850,000
    Left WingCentreRight Wing
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    LW
    UFA - 5
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    $6,000,000$6,000,000
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    C
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    $5,500,000$5,500,000
    RW, LW
    UFA - 1
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    $750,000$750,000 (Performance Bonus$750,000$750K)
    LW
    UFA - 1
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    $3,500,000$3,500,000
    C
    UFA - 8
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    $3,100,000$3,100,000
    RW, LW
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    UFA - 2
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    M-NTC
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    G
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    Apr. 6, 2021 at 11:38 p.m.
    #1
    j_cash08
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    Think Greenway is going to be exposed? Isn't he their second leading scorer?
    Apr. 6, 2021 at 11:58 p.m.
    #2
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    Quoting: jcash08
    Think Greenway is going to be exposed? Isn't he their second leading scorer?


    The Wild have to choose between exposing Greenway and exposing Dumba. I think they're going to expose Greenway. If Dumba can be traded, then they'd be able to protect Greenway and lose Soucy or Talbot. But I think it will ultimately be Greenway going to the Kraken.
    Apr. 7, 2021 at 12:08 a.m.
    #3
    j_cash08
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    Quoting: Wildwinswhen
    The Wild have to choose between exposing Greenway and exposing Dumba. I think they're going to expose Greenway. If Dumba can be traded, then they'd be able to protect Greenway and lose Soucy or Talbot. But I think it will ultimately be Greenway going to the Kraken.


    Who would they protect over Greenway?

    Assuming they go the 8 skaters route for 4 defenseman.
    Suter
    Spurgeon
    Dumba
    Brodin
    Kaprizov (Not sure if he is exempt or not)
    Parise
    Zuccarello
    Greenway
    Fiala (If Krill doesn't need to be protected)
    Apr. 7, 2021 at 1:06 a.m.
    #4
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    Quoting: jcash08
    Who would they protect over Greenway?

    Assuming they go the 8 skaters route for 4 defenseman.
    Suter
    Spurgeon
    Dumba
    Brodin
    Kaprizov (Not sure if he is exempt or not)
    Parise
    Zuccarello
    Greenway
    Fiala (If Krill doesn't need to be protected)


    Joel Eriksson Ek is getting protected no matter what since he's 2nd on the team in goals, 5th in points, and a stud defensively. He's also a center which we have basically none of at the moment. Kaprizov is exempt so we don't have to worry about giving him a slot. Assuming nobody waives their NMC, here's who we will protect in each scenario:

    7/3/1: Parise, Zuccarello, Eriksson Ek, Fiala, Greenway, Foligno, Sturm/Hartman, Brodin, Spurgeon, Suter, Kahkonen
    8/1: Parise, Zuccarello, Eriksson Ek, Fiala, Brodin, Spurgeon, Suter, Dumba, Kahkonen

    The Sturm/Hartman choice would depend on how likely it is we think Hartman will want to re-sign for a palatable number. His arbitration value is likely too high for us next year.

    Personally, I'd go the 7/3/1 route. It allows us to protect more players that we want to keep. If Dumba is picked, it's $6 million in cap room that we can use going forward. Depending on who else Seattle decides to take, there's a slight chance they'd pick Talbot or Soucy from us over Dumba. If that were to happen, I'd trade Dumba for the best offer at the draft and hope to either get a decent top 6 center or a nice couple draft picks.
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    Apr. 7, 2021 at 1:27 a.m.
    #5
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    Let me preface this by saying I don't want to lose Dumba, he's a great player and probably a fringe #2/solid #3 on most teams, but I think there's a good chance we expose him. We're going to lose a good play no matter what, but if we lost Dumba we still have Brodin and Spurgeon (who are both top pairing D) along with Suter (who is showing his age but still a good top 4 D). Add in Addison, who should be a top 4 player at worst, and you still have a great top 4. If Seattle ends up taking Dumba, as @futurehofer mentioned, that's $6M off the books that we can use to pay Boldy, Rossi, and Addison down the road. If they don't take Dumba, you still have your top 5-10 defense in tact. It's really a win-win situation in my opinion, as much as I hate the idea of losing Dumba.

    Guerin told Greenway (paraphrasing) that he needs to be more professional and shift his focus to hockey and Greenway has done what Guerin asked, so it would look really bad to turn around and expose him. I think he's safe. Ek is turning into one of the best two-way centers in the league so it would be silly to expose him as well and the only way we can protect Ek and Greenway is by going 7-3-1 unless Guerin works his magic and gets one of Parise, Zuccarello, or Suter to waive.
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    Apr. 7, 2021 at 1:27 a.m.
    #6
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    Quoting: jcash08
    Who would they protect over Greenway?

    Assuming they go the 8 skaters route for 4 defenseman.
    Suter
    Spurgeon
    Dumba
    Brodin
    Kaprizov (Not sure if he is exempt or not)
    Parise
    Zuccarello
    Greenway
    Fiala (If Krill doesn't need to be protected)


    Quoting: futurehofer
    Joel Eriksson Ek is getting protected no matter what since he's 2nd on the team in goals, 5th in points, and a stud defensively. He's also a center which we have basically none of at the moment. Kaprizov is exempt so we don't have to worry about giving him a slot. Assuming nobody waives their NMC, here's who we will protect in each scenario:

    7/3/1: Parise, Zuccarello, Eriksson Ek, Fiala, Greenway, Foligno, Sturm/Hartman, Brodin, Spurgeon, Suter, Kahkonen
    8/1: Parise, Zuccarello, Eriksson Ek, Fiala, Brodin, Spurgeon, Suter, Dumba, Kahkonen

    The Sturm/Hartman choice would depend on how likely it is we think Hartman will want to re-sign for a palatable number. His arbitration value is likely too high for us next year.

    Personally, I'd go the 7/3/1 route. It allows us to protect more players that we want to keep. If Dumba is picked, it's $6 million in cap room that we can use going forward. Depending on who else Seattle decides to take, there's a slight chance they'd pick Talbot or Soucy from us over Dumba. If that were to happen, I'd trade Dumba for the best offer at the draft and hope to either get a decent top 6 center or a nice couple draft picks.


    I agree with virtually everything @futurehofer said here.

    I don't expect anyone will waive their NMCs. Parise and Suter have no reason to. Zuccarello specifically negotiated it into his contract knowing this was coming. Spurgeon and Brodin would never get asked to waive. So that means we're protecting the 5 of them regardless of what we do.

    My guess is that the Wild will go 4-4-1 because Dumba for "nothing" would really hurt. In that case we can only protect two forwards. With KK being exempt the next best two players are Fiala and Ek and it's not even close.

    If we protect Dumba from the draft, I wouldn't follow up and trade him. We're not going to be able to trade for a C1. There's just no way anyone will make a deal with us. And the Wild have no other needs (which feels really weird to say, but it's true).

    So I think it's stay the course, try for aC2 free agent and hope that Rossi and Boldy come through.
    Apr. 7, 2021 at 1:39 a.m.
    #7
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    Quoting: Wildwinswhen
    I agree with virtually everything futurehofer said here.

    I don't expect anyone will waive their NMCs. Parise and Suter have no reason to. Zuccarello specifically negotiated it into his contract knowing this was coming. Spurgeon and Brodin would never get asked to waive. So that means we're protecting the 5 of them regardless of what we do.

    My guess is that the Wild will go 4-4-1 because Dumba for "nothing" would really hurt. In that case we can only protect two forwards. With KK being exempt the next best two players are Fiala and Ek and it's not even close.

    If we protect Dumba from the draft, I wouldn't follow up and trade him. We're not going to be able to trade for a C1. There's just no way anyone will make a deal with us. And the Wild have no other needs (which feels really weird to say, but it's true).

    So I think it's stay the course, try for aC2 free agent and hope that Rossi and Boldy come through.


    The reason they might waive (in theory) is that they should want to win a cup. If they're exposed, Ron Francis should be fired immediately if he took one of Parise or Suter's contracts. Parise in particular has said he wants to win a cup, and it's hard to do that if you expose two young, talented players in Greenway or Ek who would definitely be taken by Seattle. And it's not Dumba for nothing, $6M is a ton of cap space (especially in a flat cap world) and that itself is an asset. I also disagree that Dumba is our ticket to a #1 center. He's a fine player, but I think GM's undervalue him relative to what us fans and Guerin thinks of him. If you have a subscription, check out Russo's article where he asks executives about fan proposals. The exectuvie implies that Dumba does not have a lot of value among GM's and Guerin isn't going to get what he's asking for, but also implies that he's still a great player. Our main assets are our prospects but I wouldn't be comfortable giving a lot of them up unless it's for someone like Eichel. If nobody wants to make a deal, then so be it. Continue to draft and develop. #1 centers hardly ever get traded, you have to build through the draft and that's what Guerin has been doing so far.
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    Apr. 7, 2021 at 3:02 a.m.
    #8
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    Quoting: TanSor
    The reason they might waive (in theory) is that they should want to win a cup. If they're exposed, Ron Francis should be fired immediately if he took one of Parise or Suter's contracts. Parise in particular has said he wants to win a cup, and it's hard to do that if you expose two young, talented players in Greenway or Ek who would definitely be taken by Seattle. And it's not Dumba for nothing, $6M is a ton of cap space (especially in a flat cap world) and that itself is an asset. I also disagree that Dumba is our ticket to a #1 center. He's a fine player, but I think GM's undervalue him relative to what us fans and Guerin thinks of him. If you have a subscription, check out Russo's article where he asks executives about fan proposals. The exectuvie implies that Dumba does not have a lot of value among GM's and Guerin isn't going to get what he's asking for, but also implies that he's still a great player. Our main assets are our prospects but I wouldn't be comfortable giving a lot of them up unless it's for someone like Eichel. If nobody wants to make a deal, then so be it. Continue to draft and develop. #1 centers hardly ever get traded, you have to build through the draft and that's what Guerin has been doing so far.


    We're in complete agreement on Dumba. I put the "nothing" in quotes, because we do get 6M in cap space and they don't take one of our young guys. I just think he's more valuable than Greenway. I still hate how many shifts Greenway takes off. It reminds me too much of Coyle, I guess.

    I liked Russo's article with the GMs. He had alot of fun with that one. It sounds clear that we aren't getting a C1 through trades.

    All in all I couldn't be happier with GMBG. I trust that whatever he decides to do with the Expansion Draft will be a good choice. He's done very well so far.
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    Apr. 7, 2021 at 10:32 a.m.
    #9
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    Agreeing with both Transor and WIldwinswhen. Ideally BG can trade Dumba before the expansion draft for something that doesn't need to be protected. Frost + 2nd would be great...

    I know a lot of Wild fans are afraid to "pay" Seattle to take Soucy + to protect Dumba/Greenway, but my question is what would you be ok with parting with that Seattle might be interested in? I'm in the Soucy/Firstov maybe a 3rd camp seems fair imo. That would also keep Talbot on the team which is increasingly seeming like he could be taken based on his play imo.
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    Apr. 7, 2021 at 11:54 a.m.
    #10
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    Quoting: Morzski
    Agreeing with both Transor and WIldwinswhen. Ideally BG can trade Dumba before the expansion draft for something that doesn't need to be protected. Frost + 2nd would be great...

    I know a lot of Wild fans are afraid to "pay" Seattle to take Soucy + to protect Dumba/Greenway, but my question is what would you be ok with parting with that Seattle might be interested in? I'm in the Soucy/Firstov maybe a 3rd camp seems fair imo. That would also keep Talbot on the team which is increasingly seeming like he could be taken based on his play imo.


    I'd hate to give up another going forward, but we don't need more left wings right now, so Firstov is a likely trade option if they go that route.

    But, if I were the Kraken, I'd rather have Dumba, Greenway, or Talbot than Soucy + futures.
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    Apr. 7, 2021 at 12:37 p.m.
    #11
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    Quoting: Wildwinswhen
    I'd hate to give up another going forward, but we don't need more left wings right now, so Firstov is a likely trade option if they go that route.

    But, if I were the Kraken, I'd rather have Dumba, Greenway, or Talbot than Soucy + futures.


    I haven't looked close at the goalie likely options for SEA but Talbot + Soucy might be an enticing bribe/option for SEA not to take Greenway/Dumba and not really hurt MN much. Talbot has been good this year, but I don't think he (or Soucy) would make or break the Wild going forward. It would free up cap space for MN too.
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    Apr. 7, 2021 at 2:12 p.m.
    #12
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    Quoting: wabit
    I haven't looked close at the goalie likely options for SEA but Talbot + Soucy might be an enticing bribe/option for SEA not to take Greenway/Dumba and not really hurt MN much. Talbot has been good this year, but I don't think he (or Soucy) would make or break the Wild going forward. It would free up cap space for MN too.


    Talbot + Soucy is a great idea! We've got goalie and defenseman depth. I'd much rather do that than any other option.
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    Apr. 7, 2021 at 4:47 p.m.
    #13
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    Quoting: Wildwinswhen
    Talbot + Soucy is a great idea! We've got goalie and defenseman depth. I'd much rather do that than any other option.


    I'd personally not be a fan of paying Seattle with Talbot. He's been impressive this year and really allows Kaapo to not be rushed into a starting goalie position, which I'm not sold that Kaapo is the long term solution, but he sure has also been impressive this year as well. I like having both for the next season as a duo hoping that Kaapo can become that starting goalie.
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    Apr. 7, 2021 at 5:58 p.m.
    #14
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    Quoting: Wildwinswhen
    We're in complete agreement on Dumba. I put the "nothing" in quotes, because we do get 6M in cap space and they don't take one of our young guys. I just think he's more valuable than Greenway. I still hate how many shifts Greenway takes off. It reminds me too much of Coyle, I guess.

    I liked Russo's article with the GMs. He had alot of fun with that one. It sounds clear that we aren't getting a C1 through trades.

    All in all I couldn't be happier with GMBG. I trust that whatever he decides to do with the Expansion Draft will be a good choice. He's done very well so far.


    Couldn't agree more. I've loved Guerin's patience. Fletcher seemed to perpetually want to add rentals and gutted our prospect pool in the process. I think no matter what we're bound to lose someone in expansion that we don't want to. Greenway does have some Coyle in him, but he's at least making progress towards remedying that which is encouraging. Time will tell, but he has a high ceiling if he can put it together on a consistent basis.
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