Forums/NHL Trades

(BUF/FLA) - Montour for 2021 3rd

Who won the trade?
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Apr 10 at 2:16
#26
Joined: Dec 2017
Posts: 579
Likes: 506
Quoting: Devil1122
He was solid in Anaheim. Bad in Buffalo. Buffalo is known to ruin players.


But he wasn't great in Anaheim for the whole time though. Fell off hard the year he was traded before he even got to Buffalo.
Apr 10 at 2:17
#27
Joined: Dec 2019
Posts: 510
Likes: 307
Quoting: Devil1122
He was solid in Anaheim. Bad in Buffalo. Buffalo is known to ruin players.


He wasn't really solid in Anaheim.
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Apr 10 at 2:17
#28
sensonfire
Joined: Feb 2021
Posts: 1,783
Likes: 562
Fair price for Montour would have been a 2nd round pick, regardless of how late it is.

The first Montour trade with Anaheim as well as the Buffalo effect all need to be taken into account.


One decent comparable to this trade would be the Justin Schultz trade to Pittsburgh, orchestrated by our ol' buddy Pete Chiarelli.

We all know how that turned out.


I voted for the Florida Panthers.

Like if you did too!
gretzkyghosts liked this.
Apr 10 at 2:18
#29
Jack Hughes is Elite
Joined: Nov 2017
Posts: 9,279
Likes: 4,723
Quoting: LindyRuffRider
He wasn't really solid in Anaheim.


He wasn't bad in Anaheim. If he was, he wouldn't have been traded for a first and a prospect
Apr 10 at 2:19
#30
Jack Hughes is Elite
Joined: Nov 2017
Posts: 9,279
Likes: 4,723
Quoting: kaljakori
But he wasn't great in Anaheim for the whole time though. Fell off hard the year he was traded before he even got to Buffalo.


Yeah but he wasn't terrible. He showed potential in Anaheim before he was traded. All Im saying is that he could bounce back
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Apr 10 at 2:20
#31
Joined: Dec 2017
Posts: 579
Likes: 506
Quoting: Devil1122
He wasn't bad in Anaheim. If he was, he wouldn't have been traded for a first and a prospect


Your logic isn't very sound when you consider that Griffin Reinhart, who was ruled a bust by consensus, was traded for a 1st(Barzal) and a 2nd(traded up to select Beauvillier). Name recognition is a helluva achilles' heel for NHL GMs.
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Apr 10 at 2:22
#32
Joined: Dec 2019
Posts: 510
Likes: 307
Quoting: Devil1122
He wasn't bad in Anaheim. If he was, he wouldn't have been traded for a first and a prospect


Yea he was pretty bad in Anaheim

2gm2bOJ.png

He got a 1st and a prospect because he was young and the Sabres gambled on him becoming a good player. He didn't.
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Apr 10 at 2:27
#33
Joined: May 2015
Posts: 5,723
Likes: 1,848
Wow his value tanked in Buffalo. I thought Buffalo paid a pretty fair price for him.

I wonder if he'll rebound after leaving.

In regards to the trade a third is fair. Considering how good Florida is doing I find it kind of interesting they went for a moderate price Rd instead of a big swing with ekblad out
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Apr 10 at 2:32
#34
Hey Beter
Joined: Oct 2017
Posts: 3,939
Likes: 1,679
Quoting: kaljakori
He was bad pre-Sabres. He was pretty good for Anaheim for a while but fell off hard the year he was traded to Buffalo. And yes, before the trade.


Quoting: LindyRuffRider
I don't think so. Other Buffalo D men have good numbers on the same team. Montour has always had bad numbers.


Oh you mean the Carlyle 2018-19 Ducks that couldn't score? And then he was sent to the aimless Sabres? I highly doubt that Niedermayer himself would have survived going from a sinking team to a drowning one.

McCabe's been good exclusively this year, and even then it's a 13 game sample size. Every other season he's been "okay", which kinda describes Jokiharju and Miller too. Dahlin is obviously much more skilled, but his numbers show he's being sheltered. I think we can concede that Ristolainen has never been a good defender. At some point we need to concede that the modern Sabres are a literal black hole in terms of chances against and take some of these stats with a salt lick. Montour's base underlying metrics don't vary wildly from the rest of the Sabres. His 48.48% CF is 5th among the 8 Sabres to play over 1000min since 2018, and he trails Jokiharju and Miller by less than 1%. Montour has the highest expected GF% of all Sabres defencemen with 1000min played since 2018. There isn't a single good defender on this team, and Montour's about average from the bunch. The transformation in Florida is going to be night-and-day: Sabres fans are going to be left - again - wondering why nobody can perform worth a damn for their club but excel elsewheres.

To use an anecdote, were Jeff Petry and Devan Dubnyk always bad players or were they just stuck on a horrible Oilers squad? Coaching, usage, and overall team strength are obviously much more important factors than a few users in this thread are letting on to.
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Apr 10 at 2:38
#35
get ur corsi up
Joined: May 2017
Posts: 5,873
Likes: 1,438
Quoting: Jo_Habs77
Stats from BUF are devoid of any meaning


that's true to an extent. Even with the Ducks he was incredibly overrated just like most young RHD's are.

https://twitter.com/IneffectiveMath/status/1099821510703960064?s=20
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Apr 10 at 2:39
#36
Joined: Dec 2017
Posts: 579
Likes: 506
Quoting: BeterChiarelli


To use an anecdote, were Jeff Petry and Devan Dubnyk always bad players or were they just stuck on a horrible Oilers squad? Coaching, usage, and overall team strength are obviously much more important factors than a few users in this thread are letting on to.


Devan Dubnyk's sv% with the Oilers:
88,9%(as a rookie)
91,6%
91,4%
92,0%
89,4%

And then he was traded for Matt Hendricks for some reason. He had one down year after his rookie campaign. He struggled with the Preds in the 2 games he played and bounced back to a 91,6% with the Yotes and going lights out with the Wild, being starting caliber until 2019.

Not really even a comparison. We're talking about a player who had a huge slump once in his career vs. one who has consistently shown he's bad. Also those Oilers, Yotes and Wild teams were never worldbeaters. Sure, they weren't as bad as the current Sabres, but it's not like Dubnyk's team made his work easy.
Apr 10 at 2:42
#37
Joined: Apr 2018
Posts: 243
Likes: 129
Analytics folks are so dumb. Of course you are going to have bad corsi numbers when you play on the Buffalo Sabres, not that that stat has any value
gretzkyghosts and jpsnow13 liked this.
Apr 10 at 2:42
#38
Josh
Joined: Jun 2020
Posts: 223
Likes: 64
I mean he's a piece of s**t, but Flordia still won this trade ig
SoFlaSooner liked this.
Apr 10 at 2:43
#39
Habs4Ever
Joined: Nov 2016
Posts: 4,898
Likes: 1,734
Quoting: DDoverChucky
Analytics folks are so dumb. Of course you are going to have bad corsi numbers when you play on the Buffalo Sabres, not that that stat has any value


He wasn't very good on the Ducks either, but anyways
Apr 10 at 2:45
#40
Hey Beter
Joined: Oct 2017
Posts: 3,939
Likes: 1,679
Quoting: KSIxSKULLS
He wasn't very good on the Ducks either, but anyways


That entire Ducks team in 2018-19 was a dumpster fire that couldn't score. Carlyle ran that team into the ground: the only reason they didn't finish dead last that year was exclusively due to goaltending. You really wanna hammer home the idea that you're incapable of recognizing the context of the teams in question, don't you?
Apr 10 at 2:45
#41
GM GameV4 Arizona GM
Joined: Oct 2020
Posts: 3,306
Likes: 2,569
Fair trade, Panthers get a good offensive Dman who should benefit from not suffering the Buffalo effect and Sabres get a pick for a player who was going to leave as soon as they played their last game
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Apr 10 at 2:50
#42
Joined: Dec 2017
Posts: 579
Likes: 506
Quoting: BeterChiarelli
That entire Ducks team in 2018-19 was a dumpster fire that couldn't score. Carlyle ran that team into the ground: the only reason they didn't finish dead last that year was exclusively due to goaltending. You really wanna hammer home the idea that you're incapable of recognizing the context of the teams in question, don't you?


Weird that you keep bringing that year up, since he was by far the worst of their 3 good top-4 dmen that year. By that I mean, Manson has always been average at best and gets big minutes only because he's big and physical. Anyway, Montour was by far the worst of the group of Lindholm, Fowler and Montour in most metrics. Don't get me wrong, the two weren't great, they were actually quite bad, but Montour was even worse.
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Apr 10 at 2:51
#43
Joined: Dec 2019
Posts: 510
Likes: 307
Quoting: BeterChiarelli
Oh you mean the Carlyle 2018-19 Ducks that couldn't score? And then he was sent to the aimless Sabres? I highly doubt that Niedermayer himself would have survived going from a sinking team to a drowning one.

McCabe's been good exclusively this year, and even then it's a 13 game sample size. Every other season he's been "okay", which kinda describes Jokiharju and Miller too. Dahlin is obviously much more skilled, but his numbers show he's being sheltered. I think we can concede that Ristolainen has never been a good defender. At some point we need to concede that the modern Sabres are a literal black hole in terms of chances against and take some of these stats with a salt lick. Montour's base underlying metrics don't vary wildly from the rest of the Sabres. His 48.48% CF is 5th among the 8 Sabres to play over 1000min since 2018, and he trails Jokiharju and Miller by less than 1%. Montour has the highest expected GF% of all Sabres defencemen with 1000min played since 2018. There isn't a single good defender on this team, and Montour's about average from the bunch. The transformation in Florida is going to be night-and-day: Sabres fans are going to be left - again - wondering why nobody can perform worth a damn for their club but excel elsewheres.

To use an anecdote, were Jeff Petry and Devan Dubnyk always bad players or were they just stuck on a horrible Oilers squad? Coaching, usage, and overall team strength are obviously much more important factors than a few users in this thread are letting on to.


> Oh you mean the Carlyle 2018-19 Ducks that couldn't score? And then he was sent to the aimless Sabres? I highly doubt that Niedermayer himself would have survived going from a sinking team to a drowning one.

You said his bad numbers were due to the "Buffalo effect." Is it the "Anaheim effect" too now? The guy has played 281 games under different coaches and teams. Sometimes players just aren't good.

> McCabe's been good exclusively this year, and even then it's a 13 game sample size.

McCabe hasn't just been exclusively good this year. He was good last year and solid the year before too.

> Montour's base underlying metrics don't vary wildly from the rest of the Sabres.

Yea they're pretty similar to Bogosian & Risto who are also black holes. Risto at least has value on the PP though. Montour doesn't offer you anything on special teams.

> The transformation in Florida is going to be night-and-day: Sabres fans are going to be left - again - wondering why nobody can perform worth a damn for their club but excel elsewheres.

This is said about like every player that leaves Buffalo. They're just gonna magically get better on a different team. Most of these players are just bad. Bogosian was still bad when he left. Vesey was still bad when he left. They didn't transform on better teams.

> To use an anecdote, were Jeff Petry and Devan Dubnyk always bad players or were they just stuck on a horrible Oilers squad? Coaching, usage, and overall team strength are obviously much more important factors than a few users in this thread are letting on to.

He's been with multiple coaches & teams. He's been bad on all of them.
kaljakori liked this.
Apr 10 at 2:58
#44
Joined: Dec 2019
Posts: 510
Likes: 307
Quoting: Daryl
Not sure why people or voting Florida here. Montour is terrible and the Sabres win by even getting a 3rd out of him.


People get fooled by points.
Apr 10 at 3:01
#45
Joined: Dec 2017
Posts: 3,218
Likes: 1,635
Everyone in the hockey media thinks Buffalo players are all gonna have huge bounce backs once they're out oof Buffalo. Not gonna happen. The main reason Buffalo was/is so bad is that they have bad players.
Apr 10 at 3:06
#46
Joined: Apr 2018
Posts: 2,000
Likes: 909
Edited Apr 10 at 4:01
Quoting: BeterChiarelli
Oh you mean the Carlyle 2018-19 Ducks that couldn't score? And then he was sent to the aimless Sabres? I highly doubt that Niedermayer himself would have survived going from a sinking team to a drowning one.

McCabe's been good exclusively this year, and even then it's a 13 game sample size. Every other season he's been "okay", which kinda describes Jokiharju and Miller too. Dahlin is obviously much more skilled, but his numbers show he's being sheltered. I think we can concede that Ristolainen has never been a good defender. At some point we need to concede that the modern Sabres are a literal black hole in terms of chances against and take some of these stats with a salt lick. Montour's base underlying metrics don't vary wildly from the rest of the Sabres. His 48.48% CF is 5th among the 8 Sabres to play over 1000min since 2018, and he trails Jokiharju and Miller by less than 1%. Montour has the highest expected GF% of all Sabres defencemen with 1000min played since 2018. There isn't a single good defender on this team, and Montour's about average from the bunch. The transformation in Florida is going to be night-and-day: Sabres fans are going to be left - again - wondering why nobody can perform worth a damn for their club but excel elsewheres.

To use an anecdote, were Jeff Petry and Devan Dubnyk always bad players or were they just stuck on a horrible Oilers squad? Coaching, usage, and overall team strength are obviously much more important factors than a few users in this thread are letting on to.


I wish I could respond to all of the comments.
"The transformation in Florida is going to be night-and-day."
You said is best and here are the facts to support your point of view:

During the 26 games under Krueger, Montour had 1 goal, 6 assists and was - 14.
During the 11 games under Donato, Montour had 4 goals, 3 assists and was +1.
The 20 games Montour played after being traded from the Ducks to the Sabres he had more goals, more points and lowest +/- of all of the Sabres.
Given proper playing time I suspect he will average close to a half a point a game in Florida while chipping in 4 or 5 goals.
As usual Adams was fleeced, but this was obviously the best offer, curtesy of Ralph Krueger "Soccer Genius".
Now that the league has seen for what he will settle, I doubt the Sabres will get a 2nd for Hall.

Buffalo should never have fired Housley, but considering how the season ended, I guess the team had no choice.

EDIT for comparisons, the same stats for balance of the defense
Bryson 0-3- +1
Dahlin 2-4- -8
Jokiharju 2-2- -1
Miller 0-2- -3
Ristolainen 1-4- +1
So as I said for the last 11 games playing for a REAL NHL coach he has been the Sabres BEST defenseman.

Just his transformation from Soccer coach to Hockey coach has been night and day.
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Apr 10 at 3:11
#47
Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 17,516
Likes: 4,395
see a lot of people going with the.....it's the rest of the team not him argument....
if we do that for every player on BUF than we never get to a point where anyone actually takes responsibility for being that bad.
Truth is, He's part of how a team ended up that bad. It's not everyone but him.
BUF won for getting something out of nothing.
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Apr 10 at 3:16
#48
best poster
Joined: Jul 2019
Posts: 5,689
Likes: 4,762
Not someone I think Florida should've spent cap on.

Also don't know why people are discounting his performance in Buffalo. Being bad on a bad team doesn't mean you're good. Maybe the reduced minutes and better assignments will let Q get something meaningful out of him, but his track record isn't great even from an individual standpoint.
kaljakori liked this.
Apr 10 at 3:21
#49
Joined: May 2016
Posts: 6,501
Likes: 2,638
Fair deal: A rental with question marks for a 3rd in a weak/strange draft year.
Apr 10 at 4:30
#50
Habs4Ever
Joined: Nov 2016
Posts: 4,898
Likes: 1,734
Quoting: BeterChiarelli
That entire Ducks team in 2018-19 was a dumpster fire that couldn't score. Carlyle ran that team into the ground: the only reason they didn't finish dead last that year was exclusively due to goaltending. You really wanna hammer home the idea that you're incapable of recognizing the context of the teams in question, don't you?






Look at this entire thread. The point of advanced analytics is to take the team out of picture and focus on the player. Please stop pretending that you know everything
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