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A trade made based on the 31 thoughts of Elliotte Friedman

Created by: sensonfire
Team: 2021-22 Detroit Red Wings
Initial Creation Date: Apr. 15, 2021
Published: Apr. 15, 2021
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
This is what Elliotte Friedman said the day after the trade deadline about the Anthony Mantha trade and what it could mean for Dylan Larkin.

Thought #15

This is purely my opinion and not anything I’ve heard, but, coming out of the enormous Detroit/Washington deal, does anyone ask Steve Yzerman about Dylan Larkin? One of the reasons Anthony Mantha and Jakub Vrana were traded was due to frustration with their play (and, especially in Vrana’s case, his own consternation at the way he was being used). But another key factor is that the Red Wings feel their rebuild will take longer than originally predicted.

I’d written earlier about Detroit making everyone available except Larkin, 2020 first-rounder Lucas Raymond and 2019 first-rounder Moritz Seider (and possibly co-leading scorer Filip Hronek). Mantha is signed for three more seasons, and may be out of his prime before they’re ready. Larkin is signed for two more. He’s their captain, and it’s not insignificant to consider the fan base’s reaction. If you were another team, though, and you liked him, the Mantha deal could give you reason to ask.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/31-thoughts-taylor-hall-may-rental-bruins/
Trades
DET
  1. Cirelli, Anthony
  2. Johnson, Tyler
  3. 2022 1st round pick (TBL)
  4. 2023 1st round pick (TBL)
Additional Details:
This trade is modelled off of the Anthony Mantha trade with some exceptions.

There are 2 1sts going back to Detroit instead of a 1st and a 2nd because Johnson's cap hit is almost twice as big as Richard Panik's.

This trade also helps Detroit reach the cap floor for next season.

I picked Johnson and Cirelli as the two roster players going to Detroit because they both have some history of playing centre and Yzerman would trust them out of familiarity from his tenure as Tampa's GM.

To make yourself feel better about a Dylan Larkin trade, picture Cirelli as Vrana and Johnson as Panik while getting two 1st round picks instead of one :)

Picture this trade as the Anthony Mantha trade 2.0 :D

If there are signs that Larkin has reached his peak and might start regressing or if Larkin is not going to stick around after 2023 for the possible long-term rebuild that Elliotte Friedman hinted at, Detroit should definitely consider trading Larkin.
TBL
  1. Larkin, Dylan
Additional Details:
Tampa gets much needed cap space for next season and makes a serious upgrade from Cirelli to Larkin.

They also finally get rid of Tyler Johnson without retaining any salary after placing him on waivers earlier this year

Lottery protecting either of the two firsts going to Detroit is not necessary because Tampa is expected to be a cup contender for the foreseeable future and at least one of the 1st round picks might be in the 20s.

If Tampa fails to win a cup this year and they want to keep the window open for winning another cup, this might be what it takes.

Given what happened with the David Savard, Nick Foligno and Anthony Mantha trades recently, a Dylan Larkin trade like this one is not out of the question :)
Buyouts
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2021
Logo of the DET
Logo of the WSH
Logo of the DET
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the NYR
Logo of the DET
Logo of the VGK
Logo of the DET
Logo of the TBL
Logo of the DET
Logo of the OTT
Logo of the DET
2022
Logo of the DET
Logo of the TBL
Logo of the DET
Logo of the WSH
Logo of the DET
Logo of the DET
Logo of the COL
Logo of the VGK
Logo of the DET
Logo of the DET
Logo of the DET
2023
Logo of the DET
Logo of the TBL
Logo of the DET
Logo of the DET
Logo of the DET
Logo of the DET
Logo of the DET
Logo of the DET
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
11$81,500,000$34,507,223$0$2,018,750$46,992,777
Left WingCentreRight Wing
Logo of the Detroit Red Wings
$1,000,000$1,000,000
LW, RW, C
UFA - 1
Logo of the Tampa Bay Lightning
$4,800,000$4,800,000
C, LW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Tampa Bay Lightning
$5,000,000$5,000,000
RW, C, LW
M-NTC
UFA - 3
Logo of the Detroit Red Wings
$1,375,000$1,375,000
LW, RW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Detroit Red Wings
$2,950,000$2,950,000
LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Detroit Red Wings
$894,167$894,167 (Performance Bonus$850,000$850K)
RW, LW
RFA - 1
Logo of the Detroit Red Wings
$894,167$894,167 (Performance Bonus$318,750$319K)
C
RFA - 2
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
Logo of the Detroit Red Wings
$5,000,000$5,000,000
LD
M-NTC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Detroit Red Wings
$1,700,000$1,700,000
RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Detroit Red Wings
$3,600,000$3,600,000
G
UFA - 1
Logo of the Detroit Red Wings
$863,333$863,333 (Performance Bonus$850,000$850K)
RD
RFA - 3
Taxi Squad
Logo of the Detroit Red Wings
$5,250,000$5,250,000 ($4,125,000$4M$4,125,000$4M)
C, LW
M-NTC
UFA - 1

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Apr. 15, 2021 at 11:41 a.m.
#1
Rutta 4ever
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I don't like Larkin that much. Interesting idea, but no thanks.
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Apr. 15, 2021 at 11:44 a.m.
#2
Lenny7
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Quoting: CoopsTroops
I don't like Larkin that much. Interesting idea, but no thanks.


Yeah, better off just doing the 1st+TJ to get rid of him, and keep the other 1st+Cirelli.
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Apr. 15, 2021 at 11:48 a.m.
#3
Hughes over Kakko
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That's honestly is not bad.

You have Cirelli in instead of Vrana and Johnson for cap.

Good Job
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Apr. 15, 2021 at 11:52 a.m.
#4
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sensonfire
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Quoting: Macattack29
That's honestly is not bad.

You have Cirelli in instead of Vrana and Johnson for cap.

Good Job


Thanks smile

I didn't get around to signing Vrana's extension because it wasn't the point of the post though.
Apr. 15, 2021 at 11:54 a.m.
#5
KFTW
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So Zadina isn’t untouchable ?
Apr. 15, 2021 at 11:56 a.m.
#6
Isles7
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I wouldn't trade Larkin, he's only 24- but this isn't a bad trade. I wonder if something like Larkin (retained) for krebs/glass + bad contracts could work.
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Apr. 15, 2021 at 12:28 p.m.
#7
retired
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larkin's production has steadily been dropping for a couple seasons now. i really don't think he's worth enough that detroit would be willing to sell.
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Apr. 15, 2021 at 12:31 p.m.
#8
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sensonfire
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Quoting: DirtyDangle
larkin's production has steadily been dropping for a couple seasons now. i really don't think he's worth enough that detroit would be willing to sell.


Do you think it's because he's on a really bad team?
Apr. 15, 2021 at 12:51 p.m.
#9
GO BOLTS
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TB says no. Larkin play has dropped (looking at stats) Cirelli play has gone up. Two years Larkin 27G and 48A. Cirelli 24G and 42 assists. Cirelli 1.3 mill cheaper and has selke votes. Cirelli probably never will score 30+ goals. A consistent 20+ goal scorer that is a shut down center something to keep.
Apr. 15, 2021 at 1:02 p.m.
#10
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No chance TB gives Cirelli and a 1 for Larkin I don't trade Cirelli for Larkin straight up I'll di Johnson and a 1 for a duffle bag of pucks.
Apr. 15, 2021 at 1:17 p.m.
#11
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sensonfire
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Quoting: jasalex
TB says no. Larkin play has dropped (looking at stats) Cirelli play has gone up. Two years Larkin 27G and 48A. Cirelli 24G and 42 assists. Cirelli 1.3 mill cheaper and has selke votes. Cirelli probably never will score 30+ goals. A consistent 20+ goal scorer that is a shut down center something to keep.


I have a hunch that the reason Larkin's stats are about the same as Cirelli's is because Larkin plays for Detroit while Cirelli plays for Tampa smile

I have a hunch if Larkin went to play for Tampa, his stats would go up.

I have a hunch if Cirelli went to play for Detroit, his stats would go down.

Most importantly, if a GM refused to make trades based only on points and small changes to the team's cap hit, then said GM will be out of job really quickly once the team tanks frown
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Apr. 15, 2021 at 1:19 p.m.
#12
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sensonfire
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Quoting: Bolts20Cup
No chance TB gives Cirelli and a 1 for Larkin I don't trade Cirelli for Larkin straight up I'll di Johnson and a 1 for a duffle bag of pucks.


You probably wouldn't trade Cirelli for larkin straight up because you would know more about Cirelli than about Larkin :/
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Apr. 15, 2021 at 1:30 p.m.
#13
GO BOLTS
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Quoting: sensonfire
I have a hunch that the reason Larkin's stats are about the same as Cirelli's is because Larkin plays for Detroit while Cirelli plays for Tampa smile

I have a hunch if Larkin went to play for Tampa, his stats would go up.

I have a hunch if Cirelli went to play for Detroit, his stats would go down.

Most importantly, if a GM refused to make trades based only on points and small changes to the team's cap hit, then said GM will be out of job really quickly once the team tanks frown


Quoting: sensonfire
I have a hunch that the reason Larkin's stats are about the same as Cirelli's is because Larkin plays for Detroit while Cirelli plays for Tampa smile

I have a hunch if Larkin went to play for Tampa, his stats would go up.

I have a hunch if Cirelli went to play for Detroit, his stats would go down.

Most importantly, if a GM refused to make trades based only on points and small changes to the team's cap hit, then said GM will be out of job really quickly once the team tanks frown


Just saying we like Cirelli. Giving up 2 first picks for 3.7 cap relief not a good idea.
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Apr. 15, 2021 at 1:32 p.m.
#14
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I'd be really surprised if Larkin is available. Unless the Wings are completely fleecing another team, they should hold onto him.

But if he's available for a fair price, make the call Billy.
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Apr. 15, 2021 at 1:49 p.m.
#15
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Quoting: sensonfire
You probably wouldn't trade Cirelli for larkin straight up because you would know more about Cirelli than about Larkin :/

Actually i think Larkin is VERY GOOD However i feel his defense is suspect and ,I believe Cirelli will win multiple Selke awards while putting up similar numbers.
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Apr. 15, 2021 at 5:50 p.m.
#16
retired
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Quoting: sensonfire
Do you think it's because he's on a really bad team?


partly but it's not the whole story. hronek, fabri, and erne are finding ways to grow.
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