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When does Lavoie make it

Created by: Eberles_Backcheck
Team: 2021-22 Edmonton Oilers
Initial Creation Date: Apr. 18, 2021
Published: Apr. 18, 2021
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
Lavoie looking real solid over the last half of the year. Big power winger with a great release too, could be huge for this team. Another year in the AHL or is he ready by next fall ?
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
2$3,000,000
1$1,250,000
1$775,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
5$6,450,000
3$3,950,000
1$950,000
3$4,000,000
3$4,500,000
1$1,500,000
Trades
1.
EDM
    Seattle
    2.
    EDM
      EDM retains 50% of Neal nd Team B buys him out. 960K cap hit for both teams. Not sure cost on this one, could be more could be less
      NJD
      1. Neal, James ($960,000 retained)
      2. 2022 2nd round pick (EDM)
      Buyouts
      Retained Salary Transactions
      DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
      2021
      Logo of the EDM
      Logo of the EDM
      Logo of the EDM
      Logo of the PIT
      Logo of the EDM
      2022
      Logo of the EDM
      Logo of the EDM
      Logo of the EDM
      Logo of the EDM
      Logo of the EDM
      2023
      Logo of the EDM
      Logo of the EDM
      Logo of the EDM
      Logo of the EDM
      Logo of the EDM
      Logo of the EDM
      Logo of the EDM
      ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
      23$81,500,000$78,273,839$669,339$1,340,000$3,226,161
      Left WingCentreRight Wing
      $4,500,000$4,500,000
      LW
      UFA - 3
      Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
      $12,500,000$12,500,000
      C
      UFA - 5
      Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
      $1,175,000$1,175,000
      RW
      UFA - 1
      Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
      $6,450,000$6,450,000
      LW, C
      UFA - 8
      Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
      $8,500,000$8,500,000
      C, LW
      UFA - 4
      Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
      $3,000,000$3,000,000
      RW
      RFA - 1
      Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
      $925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$400,000$400K)
      LW, C
      RFA - 3
      Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
      $834,167$834,167 (Performance Bonus$57,500$58K)
      C
      RFA - 1
      Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
      $1,500,000$1,500,000
      RW, LW
      UFA - 1
      Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
      $3,200,000$3,200,000
      RW
      UFA - 3
      Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
      $1,250,000$1,250,000
      LW, C
      UFA - 2
      Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
      $870,000$870,000 (Performance Bonus$32,500$32K)
      RW, C
      RFA - 2
      Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
      Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
      $5,600,000$5,600,000
      LD
      UFA - 1
      Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
      $2,000,000$2,000,000
      RD
      UFA - 1
      $4,000,000$4,000,000
      G
      UFA - 4
      Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
      $725,000$725,000
      LD/RD
      UFA - 1
      Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
      $3,950,000$3,950,000
      RD
      UFA - 4
      Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
      $1,500,000$1,500,000
      G
      UFA - 2
      Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
      $4,167,000$4,167,000
      LD
      M-NTC
      UFA - 2
      Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
      $863,333$863,333 (Performance Bonus$850,000$850K)
      RD
      RFA - 2
      ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
      Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
      $785,000$785,000
      G
      UFA - 1
      Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
      $1,250,000$1,250,000
      LD/RD
      UFA - 1
      Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
      $950,000$950,000
      C
      UFA
      Taxi Squad
      Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
      $775,000$775,000 ($0$0$0$0)
      LW, C, RW
      UFA - 2
      Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
      $1,650,000$1,650,000 ($525,000$525K$525,000$525K)
      C, RW
      UFA - 1
      Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
      $4,500,000$4,500,000 ($3,375,000$3M$3,375,000$3M)
      G
      M-NTC
      UFA - 1

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      Apr. 18, 2021 at 11:54 a.m.
      #1
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      Need that 1st for Neal
      zyyyp liked this.
      Apr. 18, 2021 at 12:01 p.m.
      #2
      Pistol Pete
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      Edmonton isn’t going to pay assets to move Neal. They’ve already lost a 3rd they are going to either bury him or buy him out. If they buy him out with a front loaded deal over 3 years it’s not bad.
      Apr. 18, 2021 at 12:04 p.m.
      #3
      Pistol Pete
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      Hoffman is poor character and not good at defence. I would say there is a higher probably they sign Tatar. Lavoie needs a year in the minors yet. He’s good offensively but they need to make sure he is an all around player before they send him up and there isn’t much room at RW right now.
      Apr. 18, 2021 at 12:13 p.m.
      #4
      Speak of the Devil
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      Devils would do Neal with a first and retention
      Apr. 18, 2021 at 1:11 p.m.
      #5
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      make it the 1st in 2022 and Devils accept
      Apr. 18, 2021 at 6:51 p.m.
      #6
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      Quoting: NHLfan10506
      Need that 1st for Neal


      For a team to eat 960K?
      Apr. 18, 2021 at 7:40 p.m.
      #7
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      Quoting: Eberles_Backcheck
      For a team to eat 960K?


      Where are you getting $960? His salary is $5.75m.
      Even if EDM retained half...it is $2.875 million for two more years.
      Apr. 18, 2021 at 7:42 p.m.
      #8
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      Quoting: NHLfan10506
      Where are you getting $960? His salary is $5.75m.
      Even if EDM retained half...it is $2.875 million for two more years.


      If you are using buyout...that is for four years.
      Still would be a 1st to carry someone else's dead weight for four years
      Apr. 18, 2021 at 8:56 p.m.
      #9
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      Quoting: Zmach
      Edmonton isn’t going to pay assets to move Neal. They’ve already lost a 3rd they are going to either bury him or buy him out. If they buy him out with a front loaded deal over 3 years it’s not bad.


      How does a front loaded buyout work and do you have an exact breakdown of the cap penalties each year? I would argue Holland wouldn't mind giving assets to unload him. If we buyout Neal this summer that's almost $2mill in penalties till 2025, the prime window for winning cups with McD and Drai. We would be adding extra mid round picks for salary retention, and 3rd party salary retention on deadline deals to compensate for Neal's buyout. Between now and 2025 we probably spend an extra 4 or 5 mid round picks on additional salary retention on TDL acquisitions. If we have a late 1st, and Cossa has already been selected, and Neal can't be put on LTIR next season, I'd be happy to dump him with that pick. I'd rather bury him than buy him out although I do see the concern with paying to move him, I just think it's the best decision in a bad situation
      Apr. 19, 2021 at 2:08 p.m.
      #10
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      Quoting: McDavidFan97
      How does a front loaded buyout work and do you have an exact breakdown of the cap penalties each year? I would argue Holland wouldn't mind giving assets to unload him. If we buyout Neal this summer that's almost $2mill in penalties till 2025, the prime window for winning cups with McD and Drai. We would be adding extra mid round picks for salary retention, and 3rd party salary retention on deadline deals to compensate for Neal's buyout. Between now and 2025 we probably spend an extra 4 or 5 mid round picks on additional salary retention on TDL acquisitions. If we have a late 1st, and Cossa has already been selected, and Neal can't be put on LTIR next season, I'd be happy to dump him with that pick. I'd rather bury him than buy him out although I do see the concern with paying to move him, I just think it's the best decision in a bad situation


      Theres also the option of retaining half in a deal to a team, and then that team flips him again while retaining half, then the third team buys him out. 960K hit for EDM and 480K cap hit for Team B and C. What would be the cost in terms of draft capital for that?
      Apr. 19, 2021 at 2:36 p.m.
      #11
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      Quoting: NHLfan10506
      Need that 1st for Neal


      Quoting: Devil1122
      Devils would do Neal with a first and retention


      Quoting: zyyyp
      make it the 1st in 2022 and Devils accept


      LOL, that's ridiculous. Edmonton saves just $960k in this scenario - what does that buy them in free agency? A 4th liner? That's not worth a 2nd, let alone a 1st! You guys are clueless. Edmonton should just buyout Neal and save their 2nd.

      No team is going to pay a 1st for NJ to take on $960k x 4. Sorry to burst your bubble.

      Quoting: Eberles_Backcheck
      For a team to eat 960K?


      Exactly. But you have $3.5M in cap space - why are you spending a 2nd to clear $960k? Unless it cost a prospect that the org has basically given up on (Marody?), I'd just do the buyout.
      Apr. 19, 2021 at 3:03 p.m.
      #12
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      But I came here to talk Lavoie... I think he's got more work to do regards defensive play and positioning. Don't forget Holland and Tippett like "ripe" prospects. Looking at how Anthony Mantha - Lavoie's closest NHL comp - was developed by Holland might give us a clue:

      Mantha at 21: 60 AHL games + 10 NHL games
      Mantha at 22: 10 AHL games + 60 NHL games

      Lavoie will be 21 in September, I don't expect to see him in an NHL regular season game until after the deadline, and that's only if he has a good season in the AHL. Mantha went 60, 21-24-45 +13 as a 21-year-old, if Lavoie can score a goal every 3 games or better he'll be up for a 9-game cup of coffee next March.

      FWIW, here's both players at 20:

      Mantha in AHL: 62, 15-18-33 +5
      Lavoie in AHL: 8, 4-3-7 +1
      Lavoie in Allsvenskan: 51, 23-22-45 -14
      DraftCentralMP liked this.
      Apr. 29, 2021 at 3:36 p.m.
      #13
      Ban Price trades
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      Quoting: CD282
      But I came here to talk Lavoie... I think he's got more work to do regards defensive play and positioning. Don't forget Holland and Tippett like "ripe" prospects. Looking at how Anthony Mantha - Lavoie's closest NHL comp - was developed by Holland might give us a clue:

      Mantha at 21: 60 AHL games + 10 NHL games
      Mantha at 22: 10 AHL games + 60 NHL games

      Lavoie will be 21 in September, I don't expect to see him in an NHL regular season game until after the deadline, and that's only if he has a good season in the AHL. Mantha went 60, 21-24-45 +13 as a 21-year-old, if Lavoie can score a goal every 3 games or better he'll be up for a 9-game cup of coffee next March.

      FWIW, here's both players at 20:

      Mantha in AHL: 62, 15-18-33 +5
      Lavoie in AHL: 8, 4-3-7 +1
      Lavoie in Allsvenskan: 51, 23-22-45 -14


      I'm just expanding on this so I have a reference later (and you have all of the numbers in one neat pile for me). I also included all playoff games for Mantha and the 3 game relegation series for Lavoie. At this point in their development, the difference between a regular season game and a playoff game are minimal. More focused on quantity.

      Mantha (D+2, AHL): 78GP - 17G - 20A - 37P
      Mantha (D+2, AHL): 78GP - 0.2179 G/GP - 0.2564 A/GP - 0.4744 P/GP
      Lavoie (D+2, adjusted to AHL): 65GP - 19.4508G - 18.4508A - 37.9016P
      Lavoie (D+2, adjusted to AHL): 65GP - 0.2992 G/GP - 0.2839 A/GP - 0.5831 P/GP

      Lavoie is already projecting higher than Mantha. Very curious to see if there ends up being more separation during Bakersfield's upcoming playoff run. A quick look at his P/GP year over year (D-1 to D+2, consideration to all games played except international tournaments) and the accepted NHLe shows Lavoie is following a growth rate near x1.27 each season. This is tremendous news for a second round pick: finding that kind of mathematical predictability rarely exists beyond like pick #15. His Allsvenskan numbers for this season - should that growth rate be accurate - should have been around 0.8553 P/GP and we see that he had 0.8519 P/GP in his 54 game stint. Concurrently, his AHL P/GP would be expected to be around 0.5746 and in reality, it's only lagging behind by a hair at 0.5385 P/GP. His total AHL equivalence is above this target however. Absolutely exciting news that his year-over-year development has been so linear. A lot of teams are going to be kicking themselves in their own asses in a matter of a few short years for letting him fall beyond where he was ranked in his draft year.

      I don't necessarily think he needs to get into NHL games next year: I'm hoping Holland makes enough moves up front to leave both Holloway and Lavoie in Bakersfield for the entire 2021-22 season. I'm big on the idea of the consistency of the environment and the chemistry he might be able to build with Holloway. If he hits above 0.8 P/GP in his D+3 season, I don't know if Holland should realistically keep Lavoie in the AHL longer than that. That's proper third-line production at the NHL level; his ELC cap hit and ability to produce will instantaneously make him a necessary asset on the NHL roster. His playstyle makes him a reasonable fit alongside McDavid which allows the Oilers to push either Puljujarvi or Yamamoto down the roster and bolster that third line. Genuinely adds credence to the idea of Holland targeting Danault in free agency over other monstrous pieces. We're looking at a very scary team up front in a matter of 2 years tops.
      CD282 liked this.
      Apr. 29, 2021 at 5:42 p.m.
      #14
      Ban Price trades
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      Quoting: CD282
      Warning
      Added: Apr 29, 2021 - Expires: May 29, 2021
      Infraction Type: Warning
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      Moderator Comments: Please try not calling other users idiots and dumb (idk where you’ve said it but someone keeps reporting it).

      So... you don't have any proof of misconduct but you're calling me on it anyhow?!? Why don't you try looking at the conduct of the person doing the reporting?


      When did you get that? Today clearly, but approximately what time? I for sure didn't infract you for it - your arguments in that thread were fine, theirs werent. I'd like to bring that up with the other mods if you don't mind.
      Apr. 29, 2021 at 5:42 p.m.
      #15
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      Quoting: BeterChiarelli
      When did you get that? Today clearly, but approximately what time? I for sure didn't infract you for it - your arguments in that thread were fine, theirs werent. I'd like to bring that up with the other mods if you don't mind.


      Yeah, just in the past hour I think?
      Apr. 29, 2021 at 5:44 p.m.
      #16
      Ban Price trades
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      Quoting: CD282
      Yeah, just in the past hour I think?


      Thanks for the heads up. I'll make mention of it.
      CD282 liked this.
      Apr. 29, 2021 at 5:57 p.m.
      #17
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      Quoting: BeterChiarelli
      I'm just expanding on this so I have a reference later (and you have all of the numbers in one neat pile for me). I also included all playoff games for Mantha and the 3 game relegation series for Lavoie. At this point in their development, the difference between a regular season game and a playoff game are minimal. More focused on quantity.

      Mantha (D+2, AHL): 78GP - 17G - 20A - 37P
      Mantha (D+2, AHL): 78GP - 0.2179 G/GP - 0.2564 A/GP - 0.4744 P/GP
      Lavoie (D+2, adjusted to AHL): 65GP - 19.4508G - 18.4508A - 37.9016P
      Lavoie (D+2, adjusted to AHL): 65GP - 0.2992 G/GP - 0.2839 A/GP - 0.5831 P/GP

      Lavoie is already projecting higher than Mantha. Very curious to see if there ends up being more separation during Bakersfield's upcoming playoff run. A quick look at his P/GP year over year (D-1 to D+2, consideration to all games played except international tournaments) and the accepted NHLe shows Lavoie is following a growth rate near x1.27 each season. This is tremendous news for a second round pick: finding that kind of mathematical predictability rarely exists beyond like pick #15. His Allsvenskan numbers for this season - should that growth rate be accurate - should have been around 0.8553 P/GP and we see that he had 0.8519 P/GP in his 54 game stint. Concurrently, his AHL P/GP would be expected to be around 0.5746 and in reality, it's only lagging behind by a hair at 0.5385 P/GP. His total AHL equivalence is above this target however. Absolutely exciting news that his year-over-year development has been so linear. A lot of teams are going to be kicking themselves in their own asses in a matter of a few short years for letting him fall beyond where he was ranked in his draft year.

      I don't necessarily think he needs to get into NHL games next year: I'm hoping Holland makes enough moves up front to leave both Holloway and Lavoie in Bakersfield for the entire 2021-22 season. I'm big on the idea of the consistency of the environment and the chemistry he might be able to build with Holloway. If he hits above 0.8 P/GP in his D+3 season, I don't know if Holland should realistically keep Lavoie in the AHL longer than that. That's proper third-line production at the NHL level; his ELC cap hit and ability to produce will instantaneously make him a necessary asset on the NHL roster. His playstyle makes him a reasonable fit alongside McDavid which allows the Oilers to push either Puljujarvi or Yamamoto down the roster and bolster that third line. Genuinely adds credence to the idea of Holland targeting Danault in free agency over other monstrous pieces. We're looking at a very scary team up front in a matter of 2 years tops.


      I don't have time to do justice to this comment, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Holloway by Christmas and Lavoie by late February - kind of like Yamamoto/Jones last season. Broberg or Samorukov might factor into the equation instead of Lavoie (and Benson could make the team out of camp), but Holland likes to bring 1 rookie up at a time and work them into the lineup. As I noted above, Mantha got a 60/10 split at 21 and then a 10/60 split at 22, that's the basic model Holland likes to use.

      But yeah, this team drafting and developing with the best, and will certainly be a contender for many years to come. Their window is open now and should stay open for at least a decade.
       
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