Quoting: CD282
But I came here to talk Lavoie... I think he's got more work to do regards defensive play and positioning. Don't forget Holland and Tippett like "ripe" prospects. Looking at how Anthony Mantha - Lavoie's closest NHL comp - was developed by Holland might give us a clue:
Mantha at 21: 60 AHL games + 10 NHL games
Mantha at 22: 10 AHL games + 60 NHL games
Lavoie will be 21 in September, I don't expect to see him in an NHL regular season game until after the deadline, and that's only if he has a good season in the AHL. Mantha went 60, 21-24-45 +13 as a 21-year-old, if Lavoie can score a goal every 3 games or better he'll be up for a 9-game cup of coffee next March.
FWIW, here's both players at 20:
Mantha in AHL: 62, 15-18-33 +5
Lavoie in AHL: 8, 4-3-7 +1
Lavoie in Allsvenskan: 51, 23-22-45 -14
I'm just expanding on this so I have a reference later (and you have all of the numbers in one neat pile for me). I also included all playoff games for Mantha and the 3 game relegation series for Lavoie. At this point in their development, the difference between a regular season game and a playoff game are minimal. More focused on quantity.
Mantha (D+2, AHL): 78GP - 17G - 20A - 37P
Mantha (D+2, AHL): 78GP - 0.2179 G/GP - 0.2564 A/GP - 0.4744 P/GP
Lavoie (D+2, adjusted to AHL): 65GP - 19.4508G - 18.4508A - 37.9016P
Lavoie (D+2, adjusted to AHL): 65GP - 0.2992 G/GP - 0.2839 A/GP - 0.5831 P/GP
Lavoie is already projecting higher than Mantha. Very curious to see if there ends up being more separation during Bakersfield's upcoming playoff run. A quick look at his P/GP year over year (D-1 to D+2, consideration to all games played except international tournaments) and the accepted NHLe shows Lavoie is following a growth rate near x1.27 each season. This is tremendous news for a second round pick: finding that kind of mathematical predictability rarely exists beyond like pick #15. His Allsvenskan numbers for this season - should that growth rate be accurate - should have been around 0.8553 P/GP and we see that he had 0.8519 P/GP in his 54 game stint. Concurrently, his AHL P/GP would be expected to be around 0.5746 and in reality, it's only lagging behind by a hair at 0.5385 P/GP. His total AHL equivalence is above this target however. Absolutely exciting news that his year-over-year development has been so linear. A lot of teams are going to be kicking themselves in their own asses in a matter of a few short years for letting him fall beyond where he was ranked in his draft year.
I don't necessarily think he needs to get into NHL games next year: I'm hoping Holland makes enough moves up front to leave both Holloway and Lavoie in Bakersfield for the entire 2021-22 season. I'm big on the idea of the consistency of the environment and the chemistry he might be able to build with Holloway. If he hits above 0.8 P/GP in his D+3 season, I don't know if Holland should realistically keep Lavoie in the AHL longer than that. That's proper third-line production at the NHL level; his ELC cap hit and ability to produce will instantaneously make him a necessary asset on the NHL roster. His playstyle makes him a reasonable fit alongside McDavid which allows the Oilers to push either Puljujarvi or Yamamoto down the roster and bolster that third line. Genuinely adds credence to the idea of Holland targeting Danault in free agency over other monstrous pieces. We're looking at a very scary team up front in a matter of 2 years tops.