Roster Architect
Joined: Mar. 2021
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I can't see really a situation where Chicago would get a 1st for Murphy, have to agree with the other people that are saying that here. Anyone saying "oh I've watched him and he is definitely worth a 1st" is more than likely just a fan of Chicago and their opinion is bias. But looking at Murphy in reality an in perspective, he's not worth a 1st. David Savard was just traded for a 1st at the deadline, and he is far better than Murphy.
In order to get that 1st round pick, Columbus had to get a 3rd team involved to retain even more salary. While I'd make the argument that other player trade value's aren't the best comparison tool, the Savard trade is too much of a similarity to ignore. Usually, a player's value is determined more by the demand of the player. Ex. Foligno was in high demand, Columbus was able to get a 1st for him. Whereas Hall wasn't in as high of demand and had control over his sitation, which limited the return to less than what Foligno got even though there's no justifiable argument that Foligno is better than Hall. But in this situation, Savard and Murphy are similar types of players in terms of play style and contract status. The difference being that Savard is far better and could play on a contending team's top pair, where Murphy isn't that capable and on a contending team is more of a 3rd pair defenceman. Columbus could argue that a top pair defenceman in Savard was worth a 1st, but I don't see any valid argument saying that Murphy is a top pair guy on a contending team, and if he is, that team has some serious defensive problems and isn't a true contender.
I see a more reasonable trade value as something similar to what Ottawa received for Mike Reilly this year (which was a 2022 3rd round pick). Reilly was having a career season and playing top 4 minutes on a bottom feeding team, but on a contending team he's barely a top 4 (when Carlo is back, likely not in the top 4 at all) but he's a very good 3rd pairing option that plays strong defensively - that's almost exactly the same thing that Murphy is. I don't see a team that's further away from an elite contender paying more to get him than a contender would. Chicago could argue that Murphy is right handed and slightly in demand more, sure which would be countered by the fact that Reilly's contract was only pro-rated for $1.5M where Murphy is at $3.850M for a full season. The added cap and real money (which is $4M for next season) would negate his value back closer to Reilly's. So I'd say at most (if there was a bidding war), Chicago would be lucky to get a 2nd round pick, maybe include a lower tier prospect as well but you'd be stretching it. If Boqvist is your target from New Jersey because of the connection to his brother in Chicago, I'd say it'd probably be straight up Murphy for Boqvist, maybe you could convince New Jersey to toss in a late round pick, but anything more and New Jersey likely walks away.