He aint making the team next year dawg. Maybe 2 years

He was the AHL's leading scorer as a young 19 year old before the dumb-a** CHL rules kicked in. He certainly has a shot.

That seems like an odd contract for Ned to sign.

I think he'll get a 1 year deal so that he's still an RFA at the end of it. If he has another good year, he'll cash in big time. So the lower AAV + RFA status could be appealing to CAR, and the potential for a big pay day in one year could be appealing to Ned -- maybe something like 1 year x $2m. His RFA/UFA status complicates things, or else I'd say 2 years at $3m. With your deal, I can't see it being appealing to Ned to sign a deal that takes him to 30 years old, as a goaltender.

That's what I think is likely to happen. Late-blooming prospects sometimes, however, prefer job security because they know that there's a possibility that their career fizzes out almost as quickly as it started. See the examples of Marchessault and Karlsson in Vegas or Jarnkrok in Nashville.

Kings will just wait if they want Nino, there are better free agency options. Either way Hurricanes aren't getting Faber, he looks awesome.

I wanted the penguins to draft Jarvis, his speed is next level. He's gonna be a gamer.

I think its important to recognize that Niederreiter plays a far less valuable position than Faulk did. Right-handed defencemen are always, always coveted. Wingers are the most excessive commodity in the sport.

Not to say Nino has no value, but the far more likely outcome is trading him for a smaller return without an extension in place. I don't believe he's the calibre of winger that would warrant such a deal (of which there might be a half-dozen in the league right now anyways).

Seth Jarvis > Quinton Byfield

A mind is a terrible thing to waste.

I compared the return to Nick Foligno's, who ended up getting a late 1st and another good pick. Nino's a much better player, stats-wise, than Foligno, and at least IMO, an extended Nino should get a premium return that was better than what Foligno got. Brock Faber or Helge Grans would be the kind of piece that would interest Carolina.

A winger with his production and metrics isn't an "excessive" commodity, especially when you look at his all-around two-way play. Nino has plenty of value in a trade even without an extension. Look at what Foligno got from Toronto! Also, the AAV on the proposed Nino deal above is only about 800K more than what he's currently making.

No on trading Faber and grans for an almost 30 year old player right now. If they trade either one it’ll be in a package for a younger player in the NHL.

Please re-read the part where I explicitly state that I'm not claiming Nino has no value.

Toronto overpaying for a bottom-six player won't have the affect you think it will. If these isolated instances are what the market actually is, Coleman for a 1st and an A-prospect would have destroyed the market for bottom-six wingers. Deadline prices for skaters are always infinitely higher than offseason moves. Remember Schmidt for a 3rd last summer? Likewise, picks are at their most expensive during the draft. Offseason moves tend to be when players cost the least.

With retention, Nino probably pulls a 1st and a B-prospect. Without, it's likely a second and a pair of b-prospects or something equivalent. Until the Hurricanes publicly state that they aren't extending Dougie, other teams will operate under the assumption that Carolina is going to be pressed for cap space. This creates a buyer's market, not a seller's market. Don't be surprised if his price goes as low as a second round pick. It's entirely possible: we don't know what kind of conversations are being had in that office.

The proposed Nino deal wouldn't be an offseason move, but a training camp one that happens only if Jarvis wins a spot in the lineup. This proposed move has no cap implications because the Canes would add cap with taking Brown's full cap hit, which ups the return.

Now that I've taken a closer look at the trade itself, as well as the AGM (instead of just offering anecdotal evidence as to why the return won't be as great as you're hoping) I'm left with one question:

Why?

Brown is such a downgrade on Nino: he's one of the better defensive forwards in the game. If the goal is a Stanley Cup and if the math clearly works out, why are you bothering to make this trade anyways? Jarvis making the team out of camp bears zero weight as to whether or not Niederreiter should be moved. Both players fit in either the #1LW or #3RW roles.

I get that the target is another quality prospect, but Carolina one, already has a very strong prospect pool, and two, can afford to keep its high picks for those prospects because of how good their drafting and cap management has been. They *could* go out and acquire a rental, but will they need to?



Wingers - by definition - are the most available piece in the league. Every roster requires a minimum of eight and a scratch would make the total 9. There are only 4 centermen (5 with a spare), 6 defencemen (7 with a spare) and 2 goaltending positions. Across 32 teams that means there are anywhere between 256 and 288 wingers playing in the NHL. They are the most abundant position. Niederreiter's metrics and defensive acumen might differentiate him from that crowd, but it doesn't make him an exclusive player. There is no "defensive winger" position in the league, it's merely a selling point of acquiring him.

Given his age and lack of scoring prowess to match his defensive acumen, what reason does a team have to ensure that Nino plays for their team for years at the expense of a top prospect? The move is nonsensical for the acquiring team. Either trade for him as a rental and gamble on him extending or wait the season for him to hit UFA and buy him for free.

The main motive to deal Nino in a deal like this is to make room for Jarvis and get Brock Faber or Helge Grans. We have a great prospect pool, but it's also lacking in defensive prospects.

Then just draft defencemen.

In terms of timelines, your top-4 defenders are basically set in stone for the next 5-10 years as extensions are both more affordable and likely with the cap finally starting to go up in a couple years. The bottom pairing can be cycled with cheaper journeymen kinda guys or prospects already in the system. Hell, wasn't Keane supposed to be the next big thing? I'm big on Honka and Nikishin too. Short-term the Hurricanes are fine and really only need to add maybe two more quality blueline prospects in the next two drafts before being set for quite a long time.

I think that the trade, and the reasoning behind it, is fine, but we aren't in the same position as Toronto. Niederreiter makes even more sense for Toronto than Foligno, but little sense for us.

You’re not getting either player still, so your point is moot

It's not that I don't think he isn't worth it, it's just that he isn't a positive thing to sign with the Kings, so he is seen more as a rental which has little value for a rebuilding team.