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Polling fans from every team How much for Danault

Created by: Wreckless
Team: 2021-22 Montreal Canadiens
Initial Creation Date: May 4, 2021
Published: May 4, 2021
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
I think $25mm over 6 years is the right number.
Give him nice signing bonus money in low escrow years of the CBA to show him the respect that he’s earned.
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
1$1,925,000
1$1,870,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
1$750,000
1$750,000
4$2,750,000
6$4,166,667
1$925,000
Buyouts
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2021
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2022
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2023
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ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
23$81,500,000$69,231,787$597,561$1,475,000$12,268,213
Left WingCentreRight Wing
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$5,500,000$5,500,000
LW, RW
M-NTC
UFA - 2
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$863,333$863,333 (Performance Bonus$537,500$538K)
C
UFA - 1
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$5,500,000$5,500,000
RW, LW
M-NTC
UFA - 6
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$2,125,000$2,125,000
RW, LW
UFA - 3
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$4,166,667$4,166,667
C
UFA - 6
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$6,500,000$6,500,000
RW, LW
M-NTC, NMC
UFA - 6
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$1,870,000$1,870,000
LW, RW
UFA - 1
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$1,925,000$1,925,000
C
UFA - 1
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$880,833$880,833 (Performance Bonus$300,000$300K)
LW, RW
UFA - 2
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$750,000$750,000
C
UFA - 1
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$2,750,000$2,750,000
RW, LW
UFA - 4
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$3,400,000$3,400,000
LW, RW
UFA - 2
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$750,000$750,000
C
UFA
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$750,000$750,000
RW
UFA - 2
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
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$1,750,000$1,750,000
LD/RD
M-NTC
UFA - 1
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$7,857,143$7,857,143
RD
UFA - 5
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$10,500,000$10,500,000
G
NMC
UFA - 5
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$875,000$875,000
LD/RD
M-NTC
UFA - 3
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$2,343,750$2,343,750
RD
M-NTC, NMC
UFA - 4
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$2,875,000$2,875,000
G
UFA - 2
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$894,167$894,167 (Performance Bonus$637,500$638K)
LD
RFA - 1
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$925,000$925,000
LD
UFA - 1
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$925,000$925,000
LD/RD
UFA - 1
Taxi Squad
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$763,333$763,333 ($0$0$0$0)
RW, LW
UFA - 1
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$880,833$880,833 ($0$0$0$0)
G
RFA - 1

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May 4, 2021 at 10:27 a.m.
#1
Hop on the Slaftrain
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You're grossly overrating the UFA center market if you think Danault settles for that. Top 6 centers are a hot commodity when available and Danault is the best of them, just look at what centers like Hayes or even Bozak got as UFAs.
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May 4, 2021 at 10:28 a.m.
#2
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Danault easily gets 4.5-5 or even more on a 5-6 year deal
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May 4, 2021 at 10:36 a.m.
#3
cautious optimism
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I've read somewhere that he asked for 5.5M per year for 5 years. I'd pay him 6M for 5 just for a bit of certainty.
May 4, 2021 at 10:37 a.m.
#4
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Quoting: A_Habs_fan
Danault easily gets 4.5-5 or even more on a 5-6 year deal


$4.5mm over 5 years is $22.5mm total. We’re in the same ballpark. Bergevin might even prefer giving out that deal over 6x$4.167mm.
May 4, 2021 at 10:40 a.m.
#5
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5x5 makes alot of sense
May 4, 2021 at 10:41 a.m.
#6
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Quoting: SevenLeg
You're grossly overrating the UFA center market if you think Danault settles for that. Top 6 centers are a hot commodity when available and Danault is the best of them, just look at what centers like Hayes or even Bozak got as UFAs.


I agree with you that there is no question, Phil Danault will get offers for more money from other teams. The question remains whether or not he will ultimately end up chasing it.
May 4, 2021 at 10:42 a.m.
#7
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Quoting: Bobcat205
I've read somewhere that he asked for 5.5M per year for 5 years. I'd pay him 6M for 5 just for a bit of certainty.


I’d agree that Columbus would be a good fit if he ends up exploring other markets.
May 4, 2021 at 10:50 a.m.
#8
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4.5mx4...push it to 5 years if you have to.

Simply doesnt bring enough offense to justify more, flat cap era you don't want to give him too much term either bc if that defensive game slips, that contract becomes a real problem the longer it goes
May 4, 2021 at 10:50 a.m.
#9
I post sometimes
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I would give Danault a 5M on 8 years - he wants to live in QC and raise his kid here.
May 4, 2021 at 11:04 a.m.
#10
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Quoting: MTLaveragefan
I would give Danault a 5M on 8 years - he wants to live in QC and raise his kid here.


The number of $40mm + contracts for forwards in the entire nhl after Covid changed the cap world? Zero.
The number of $30mm + contracts for forwards outside of Montreal? Zero.

The safe bet has to be on a total dollar figure between $20mm and $30mm.

I’d be okay with an eight year term, but it would have to come with big savings on the cap hit number.
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May 4, 2021 at 11:11 a.m.
#11
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It really doesn't matter about the money I don't think. Habs have the money to offer him what he would probably want. Its other things that control his fate.

I personally don't want him to be the 5.5-6M 3rd liner in 2 seasons. If Habs do sign him, it will mean they need to start looking at trading KK IMO. KK as a 3rd liner is a waste of a 3OV pick and his development will never get to the level we all hope. So might as well improve somewhere else like a puck moving D or something.

IMHO = Pick Danault or Kotkaniemi. Having both with Suzuki means one guy will never be happy/develop properly.
May 4, 2021 at 11:19 a.m.
#12
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From Detroit, I’d try 6M x 5 years so 30M total like rumored in September but for a year shorter term. If up the AAV slightly for less term also.
May 4, 2021 at 11:24 a.m.
#13
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Evolving Hockey projection on Danault:
7yr x $6.363 million if he leaves Montreal
8yr x $7.643 million if he stays in Montreal
May 4, 2021 at 11:41 a.m.
#14
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Quoting: Mr_Canoehead
Evolving Hockey projection on Danault:
7yr x $6.363 million if he leaves Montreal
8yr x $7.643 million if he stays in Montreal

That's absurd, he isn't worth 7.6mil for the next 3 years, let alone the next 8. He isn't even worth 6.3mil, he can't score. He's like Backlund, only Backlund can actually contribute 20 goals per year and 45 points consistently (a mark Danault has only hit twice, and is on pace to miss this year). He shoulda taken the 5x5.5 deal imo, his value has gone down and anyone who even gives him that will be overpaying.
May 4, 2021 at 11:58 a.m.
#15
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Quoting: Alfie11
That's absurd, he isn't worth 7.6mil for the next 3 years, let alone the next 8. He isn't even worth 6.3mil, he can't score. He's like Backlund, only Backlund can actually contribute 20 goals per year and 45 points consistently (a mark Danault has only hit twice, and is on pace to miss this year). He shoulda taken the 5x5.5 deal imo, his value has gone down and anyone who even gives him that will be overpaying.


Take it up with the people at Evolving Hockey.
May 4, 2021 at 12:09 p.m.
#16
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Quoting: F50marco
It really doesn't matter about the money I don't think. Habs have the money to offer him what he would probably want. Its other things that control his fate.

I personally don't want him to be the 5.5-6M 3rd liner in 2 seasons. If Habs do sign him, it will mean they need to start looking at trading KK IMO. KK as a 3rd liner is a waste of a 3OV pick and his development will never get to the level we all hope. So might as well improve somewhere else like a puck moving D or something.

IMHO = Pick Danault or Kotkaniemi. Having both with Suzuki means one guy will never be happy/develop properly.


KK with Lehkonen and Caufield at 13-15 minutes a game is hardly wasting his development when you factor in that he replaces Tatar’s spot on the powerplay. It’s easy to forget that he’s just 20 yo.
May 4, 2021 at 12:27 p.m.
#17
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Quoting: Alfie11
That's absurd, he isn't worth 7.6mil for the next 3 years, let alone the next 8. He isn't even worth 6.3mil, he can't score. He's like Backlund, only Backlund can actually contribute 20 goals per year and 45 points consistently (a mark Danault has only hit twice, and is on pace to miss this year). He shoulda taken the 5x5.5 deal imo, his value has gone down and anyone who even gives him that will be overpaying.


Quoting: Mr_Canoehead
Take it up with the people at Evolving Hockey.


Out of curiosity, how did that site do with their predictions last off season?
May 4, 2021 at 12:30 p.m.
#18
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Quoting: BStinson
From Detroit, I’d try 6M x 5 years so 30M total like rumored in September but for a year shorter term. If up the AAV slightly for less term also.


Wow, just looked at Detroit’s page, what an opportune time for Yzerman to have a staggering $49mm in cap space to spend. And draft picks to burn if he wanted to go the offer sheet route as well.
May 4, 2021 at 12:40 p.m.
#19
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Quoting: Wreckless
Out of curiosity, how did that site do with their predictions last off season?


I don't know about last year, but when Matt Cane did this exercise several years back -- before he went to the NJ Devils and the EH guys took it over -- he did fairly well IIRC. I'll have to check to see if they have some sort of prediction vs actual in a blog post.
May 4, 2021 at 1:08 p.m.
#20
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Quoting: Wreckless
KK with Lehkonen and Caufield at 13-15 minutes a game is hardly wasting his development when you factor in that he replaces Tatar’s spot on the powerplay. It’s easy to forget that he’s just 20 yo.


I know Kotkaniemi is a more complete player so far and all, and certainly hasn't been bad by any stretch but we need to stop coddling this kid too much. We drafted this kid to be the #1 center, #2 at worst and the way he's developing and the way we're not exactly putting him in a spot to reach that level makes me believe he'll never be that player if we continue to develop him this way.

Keeping Danault long term, means KK will never get 16+ mins he'll need to excel, Suzuki has clearly overstepped KK on the pecking order and will command the better ice time also so where exactly is KK gonna get that 1-2C ice time?? When he's 26? That's too late. That's a waste of a players best statistical potential seasons and by that time he is the player he is already.

Statistically speaking alone, KK will be the least productive 3OV player since Erik Gudbranson but seeing as he was a dman its hardly a fair comparison either way. So since then, every other guy picked before KK 3OV has broken out somewhat by his final ELC year. Not speaking of only the studs BTW, even Galchenyuk, even Drouin, Even Dylan Strome....and those guys were the worst 3OV's..... They are by no means star players right now but if those guys were able to break out, KK needs to get going here next year to prove that he was worth that pick or else maybe the Habs need to cash in their chips and go get that guy they think KK will be.

KK gets a little bit of a pass here because like you said he was a younger player drafted than many of his comparables. So we can push his evaluation to next year so we can see a full 21 year old KK in his development. With that said, 10 goals and 20 assists is 82 games next year will not be acceptable. He's supposed to be a star player. Not a 3rd line decent centerman and every other team traded away their 3OV player who wasn't a stud by or after their 21 year old season because frankly it wasn't going to happen with that team.

-Strome was traded for Schmaltz whose turned into arguably an as good or better player than Strome.
-Drouin was traded for Sergachev whose turned into a clear as cut better player.
-...and finally, the team that waited the longest to move on in Galchenyuk, turned him into Domi which turned into Anderson. All 3 players are not star players. I'm happy with Anderson but he's not a star player.

I want KK to succeed, I really do but he needs to start "getting it" soon here because it was cute the first 3 years, now its like "ok bud, are you a good player or are you not?" because we didn't draft you to be a decent 3rd line center.
May 4, 2021 at 2:34 p.m.
#21
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Quoting: F50marco
I know Kotkaniemi is a more complete player so far and all, and certainly hasn't been bad by any stretch but we need to stop coddling this kid too much. We drafted this kid to be the #1 center, #2 at worst and the way he's developing and the way we're not exactly putting him in a spot to reach that level makes me believe he'll never be that player if we continue to develop him this way.

Keeping Danault long term, means KK will never get 16+ mins he'll need to excel, Suzuki has clearly overstepped KK on the pecking order and will command the better ice time also so where exactly is KK gonna get that 1-2C ice time?? When he's 26? That's too late. That's a waste of a players best statistical potential seasons and by that time he is the player he is already.

Statistically speaking alone, KK will be the least productive 3OV player since Erik Gudbranson but seeing as he was a dman its hardly a fair comparison either way. So since then, every other guy picked before KK 3OV has broken out somewhat by his final ELC year. Not speaking of only the studs BTW, even Galchenyuk, even Drouin, Even Dylan Strome....and those guys were the worst 3OV's..... They are by no means star players right now but if those guys were able to break out, KK needs to get going here next year to prove that he was worth that pick or else maybe the Habs need to cash in their chips and go get that guy they think KK will be.

KK gets a little bit of a pass here because like you said he was a younger player drafted than many of his comparables. So we can push his evaluation to next year so we can see a full 21 year old KK in his development. With that said, 10 goals and 20 assists is 82 games next year will not be acceptable. He's supposed to be a star player. Not a 3rd line decent centerman and every other team traded away their 3OV player who wasn't a stud by or after their 21 year old season because frankly it wasn't going to happen with that team.

-Strome was traded for Schmaltz whose turned into arguably an as good or better player than Strome.
-Drouin was traded for Sergachev whose turned into a clear as cut better player.
-...and finally, the team that waited the longest to move on in Galchenyuk, turned him into Domi which turned into Anderson. All 3 players are not star players. I'm happy with Anderson but he's not a star player.

I want KK to succeed, I really do but he needs to start "getting it" soon here because it was cute the first 3 years, now its like "ok bud, are you a good player or are you not?" because we didn't draft you to be a decent 3rd line center.


That’s a great post and I agree with most of it. The slight point of difference I’d make is that only if Danault wants more than $25mm would I let him walk. At a cap hit in the low 4s with a defined role, I think there’s a way that we can make it all work. I agree with you that KK needs to develop into a solid offensive player, or the pick (which could have been used on Tkatchuk or Hughes) would have clearly been suboptimal.

Re: ice time, I don’t foresee a reason why (depending on the specific matchup):
Suzuki 18 mins
Danault 17 mins
Kotkaniemi 16 mins
4th line center 10 mins

... couldn’t work. Especially since Suzuki and KK could conceivably play together on the PP at times.
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May 4, 2021 at 9:06 p.m.
#22
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Quoting: Wreckless
That’s a great post and I agree with most of it. The slight point of difference I’d make is that only if Danault wants more than $25mm would I let him walk. At a cap hit in the low 4s with a defined role, I think there’s a way that we can make it all work. I agree with you that KK needs to develop into a solid offensive player, or the pick (which could have been used on Tkatchuk or Hughes) would have clearly been suboptimal.

Re: ice time, I don’t foresee a reason why (depending on the specific matchup):
Suzuki 18 mins
Danault 17 mins
Kotkaniemi 16 mins
4th line center 10 mins

... couldn’t work. Especially since Suzuki and KK could conceivably play together on the PP at times.


For sure, if Danault signs for less than 5M and is willing to have mostly hard matchups and PK, sure. I just don't see it though. He's a good a player who wants money and accolades. He can get over 5M as a UFA easily and also can get a better situation elsewhere playing PP, PK and better 5v5 mins than in MTL. He wants to be the man, or at the very least the #2 man. If we give that to him, KK will not develop. If we don't sign him, KK gets his chance to be one of the major guys on the team.

As for the mins, well first of all you are over 60 mins right there. wink Not that it really matters but just saying. Secondly, those mins are basically what they are already doing. Suzuki is averaging 18, Danault 17 and KK 15. So that extra 1 min is coming from the 4th line only really and if they play under 10 mins a night than its too little and a waste of a 4th line. They need to be in the game more than that unless they are bruisers.

Unfortunately its not just time on ice that is the issue. Simply having two other guys who are higher on the depth chart automatically than KK is detrimental after a few years. He needs to feel like he's one of the go-to guys to be able to develop into a star and when your the 3rd line center, it just doesn't feel like it anymore. KK is reminding me of Jordan Staal when he was with Pittsburgh. Tons of skill and size but ended up being a really good 3rd line center only when he was supposed to be a star player. I would rather KK become a perennial 50-70 point guy. That is what we drafted him for not a Jordan Staal. Even though that's better nothing obviously.
May 5, 2021 at 12:04 p.m.
#23
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Wreckless
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Quoting: F50marco
For sure, if Danault signs for less than 5M and is willing to have mostly hard matchups and PK, sure. I just don't see it though. He's a good a player who wants money and accolades. He can get over 5M as a UFA easily and also can get a better situation elsewhere playing PP, PK and better 5v5 mins than in MTL. He wants to be the man, or at the very least the #2 man. If we give that to him, KK will not develop. If we don't sign him, KK gets his chance to be one of the major guys on the team.

As for the mins, well first of all you are over 60 mins right there. wink Not that it really matters but just saying. Secondly, those mins are basically what they are already doing. Suzuki is averaging 18, Danault 17 and KK 15. So that extra 1 min is coming from the 4th line only really and if they play under 10 mins a night than its too little and a waste of a 4th line. They need to be in the game more than that unless they are bruisers.

Unfortunately its not just time on ice that is the issue. Simply having two other guys who are higher on the depth chart automatically than KK is detrimental after a few years. He needs to feel like he's one of the go-to guys to be able to develop into a star and when your the 3rd line center, it just doesn't feel like it anymore. KK is reminding me of Jordan Staal when he was with Pittsburgh. Tons of skill and size but ended up being a really good 3rd line center only when he was supposed to be a star player. I would rather KK become a perennial 50-70 point guy. That is what we drafted him for not a Jordan Staal. Even though that's better nothing obviously.


“He’s a good player who wants money and accolades.” Not mutually exclusive with: “a team first guy who has no problem signing for $25mm in an environment where Toffoli just signed for $17mm, and plays for 6 years on a line with another team first guy in Gallagher, and wants the collective accolades of winning a cup, and raising his young family, in Montreal.”

Also, re: Jordan Staal, I’d take a player like that on my third line any day of the week and twice on sundays.
May 5, 2021 at 2:39 p.m.
#24
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Quoting: Wreckless
“He’s a good player who wants money and accolades.” Not mutually exclusive with: “a team first guy who has no problem signing for $25mm in an environment where Toffoli just signed for $17mm, and plays for 6 years on a line with another team first guy in Gallagher, and wants the collective accolades of winning a cup, and raising his young family, in Montreal.”

Also, re: Jordan Staal, I’d take a player like that on my third line any day of the week and twice on sundays.


I think if it were about:

“a team first guy who has no problem signing for $25mm in an environment where Toffoli just signed for $17mm, and plays for 6 years on a line with another team first guy in Gallagher, and wants the collective accolades of winning a cup, and raising his young family, in Montreal.”

....He would have signed already. There is a reason this deal hasn't come together as fast as it did for Gallagher.


As for KK, yeah I would gladly take a Jordan Staal over a Alexander Svitov any day of the week if that was the option but I would much rather have a Draisaitl, Huberdeau, Dubois, over Staal also.
 
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