I think its safe to say that EDM will lose a much better player this time around with Expansion.
With Seattle Expansion there are a few paths forward (4F/4D/1G or 7F/3D/1G) each of which leaves important players available to be selected. There are a few key drivers that will alter the teams decision making process such as: Klefboms status (I will operate under the assumption that he will play), UFA's RNH, Larsson, Barrie and their appetite to deal with Seattle (as a means of protecting certain players)
IF EDM chooses to protect 4F/4D/1G probably looks like #97, #29, #13, #56, #77, #25, #74, #82, #19? This leaves all UFA players (RNH, Larsson, Barrie) open to Seattle to negotiate early and Neal, Kassian, Archibald, Kahun? and Turris available to be taken
However
IF EDM chooses to sign RNH for example prior to Expansion and protect 7F/3D/1G and that looks like: #97, #29, #93, #13, #56, #15, #21?, #25, #74, #82 or #77, #19 This means EDM is able to protect more forwards including some depth players such as Archibald, Khaira & Kahun assuming they are signed or qualified however it also means a key defender such as Klefbom or Jones is available
However
IF EDM chooses to sign Barrie or Larsson they are likely going to protect 4F/4D/1G probably looks like #97, #29, #13, #56, #6 or #22, #25, #74, #82 or #77, #19? This leaves RNH unprotected along with signed a signed Klefbom or Jones in addition to the depth players.
However IF EDM chose to trade with Seattle they could sign RNH and Larsson or Barrie without it truly costing them Caleb Jones. Now it will likely cost them a first round pick and a prospect depending on who Seattle is threatening to take. And if the desire is to build on this teams success and keep them together for the most part they need to determine whether they are willing to trade a 2021 1st round pick and a Tyler Benson in order to keep RNH or Klefbom. And honestly I do not envy Ken Hollands choice here, no matter what the fans are going to be calling for his head, which as long as #97, #29, #13, #56, #25, #74 are protected then we are fine.
IF it were me making the calls I would sign RNH & Larsson and work out a deal with Seattle for them to take Kassian or Neal in exchange for Lagesson and a 1st or 2nd round pick depending upon the market.
This gives them imo the greatest WIN NOW opportunity and we've seen teams do this in the past ie: Vegas taking Fleury from Pitt plus pick compensation. Pitt used that opportunity to get out of a decent sized salary and protect some core pieces. Additionally allowing RNH & Larsson to walk (depending upon salary requests) is poor asset management and replacing them on the open market will be met with disappointment as the market is thin and lacks depth. The adage "A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush" comes to mind when discussing resigning RNH & Larsson.
No way we give a first to take Kassian. He's overpaid but if he gets healthy and engaged he still has potential to be a useful player... those are the types of deals Vegas fleeced everyone with last time. As many teams learned with Vegas, let them pick their guy and move on. We have the organizational depth to deal with Benson, Jones, or Lagesson... definitely not worth a first to avoid it.
No way we give a first to take Kassian. He's overpaid but if he gets healthy and engaged he still has potential to be a useful player... those are the types of deals Vegas fleeced everyone with last time. As many teams learned with Vegas, let them pick their guy and move on. We have the organizational depth to deal with Benson, Jones, or Lagesson... definitely not worth a first to avoid it.
I’d be ok letting Seattle have both jones and lagesson if it meant keeping benson.
Why lose 2 prospects when you only have to lose one? I like Benson and he's on the cusp of breaking into the league, but may as well minimize loss in the expansion draft. With flat cap there are decent NHLers for cheap if we need to fill out depth, have guys like McLeod and Marody that are NHL ready as well with Holloway close. Lavoie maybe a year or two out. Just let them pick and move on.
This is just silly. Let them take whichever of Benson, Jones or Lagesson they want. None of those guys is worth a 1st.
You've missed the point or not read the description if you feel the point is to deal a 1st to protect Jones, the 1st is to take Kassian or Neal
Jones is a valuable 2nd-3rd pair LHD on a stellar contract
Lagesson isn't available to be selected by SEA
Benson is a tweener who unlikely is picked
No way we give a first to take Kassian. He's overpaid but if he gets healthy and engaged he still has potential to be a useful player... those are the types of deals Vegas fleeced everyone with last time. As many teams learned with Vegas, let them pick their guy and move on. We have the organizational depth to deal with Benson, Jones, or Lagesson... definitely not worth a first to avoid it.
Couple things you obviously didn't read the description and who is to say anyone learned anything from the Vegas experience? In fact teams are in a worse way now than when Vegas came in due to the flat cap. Seattle is going to have every opportunity to take advantage of teams.
Perhaps EDM will view losing Jones as a minor loss with the prospects coming however with his skill set, contract price I feel he is very much worth protecting.
As for Kassian love him or hate him he has lost his place in the Oilers lineup and too many nights he is a ghost.
I’d be ok letting Seattle have both jones and lagesson if it meant keeping benson.
WHY??
Jones is a 2nd or 3rd pair defenseman, he skates well, passes the puck and is on an excellent contract. Why would you give him up to protect an AHL player?
Benson has 7 NHL games under his belt, is yet to establish himself in the NHL and isn't available to be selected by SEA
Lagesson is a 3rd pair - 7th Dman in the NHL and isn't available to be selected by SEA
I would protect benson over Kahun, but I don't think it really matters because Jones probably gets picked anyways. Personally I would be willing to pay Seattle to take Lagesson or someone else over Jones.
Trade Jones for a goaltender or a scoring winger, protect Benson, and let Seattle have their pick of Lagesson, Kahun, Kassian, or Turris. No chance in hell they take Koskinen if one of Hill/Vanacek are made available and both Allen and Holtby are expected to be Kraken.
This isn't that hard.
If Klefbom is returning in any capacity the club a) protects him, and b) his return will likely be shortly into the season at the latest. Nurse takes the reigns as Edmonton's number 1 and Kulikov can step into a top-4 role temporarily while one of Samorukov or Broberg gets their 9 game stint (I'd vote Dima). Klefbom has every ability to get back into a top-four role. The blueline next year is shaping up to be ridiculously good, the only thing that's up in the air is how well Bouchard will perform. Sky's the limit.
I like what Jones brings and strongly believe his 'issues' this season have more to do with Tippett's deployment and Holland not ridding Tippett of some of his favourite toys. I'm not about to move heaven and Earth to ensure he remains an Oiler however: after this upcoming season, both Broberg and Samorukov should be on the roster full time: my assumption is that they split starts over an 82 game season as Klefbom's deal expires. Nurse-Broberg-Samorukov is the left side of the future. If Bear and Bouchard are here long-term, Edmonton has a very strong group of 5 defenders that will simply require a complimentary piece to complete the unit. Jones is expendable and the time is now to capitalize on his value.
Trade Jones for a goaltender or a scoring winger, protect Benson, and let Seattle have their pick of Lagesson, Kahun, Kassian, or Turris. No chance in hell they take Koskinen if one of Hill/Vanacek are made available and both Allen and Holtby are expected to be Kraken.
This isn't that hard.
If Klefbom is returning in any capacity the club a) protects him, and b) his return will likely be shortly into the season at the latest. Nurse takes the reigns as Edmonton's number 1 and Kulikov can step into a top-4 role temporarily while one of Samorukov or Broberg gets their 9 game stint (I'd vote Dima). Klefbom has every ability to get back into a top-four role. The blueline next year is shaping up to be ridiculously good, the only thing that's up in the air is how well Bouchard will perform. Sky's the limit.
I like what Jones brings and strongly believe his 'issues' this season have more to do with Tippett's deployment and Holland not ridding Tippett of some of his favourite toys. I'm not about to move heaven and Earth to ensure he remains an Oiler however: after this upcoming season, both Broberg and Samorukov should be on the roster full time: my assumption is that they split starts over an 82 game season as Klefbom's deal expires. Nurse-Broberg-Samorukov is the left side of the future. If Bear and Bouchard are here long-term, Edmonton has a very strong group of 5 defenders that will simply require a complimentary piece to complete the unit. Jones is expendable and the time is now to capitalize on his value.
1. Benson is NOT available via the expansion draft via CapFriendly, and to boot he is a NHL/AHL Tweener Seattle wouldn't think twice about him at this stage.
2. Broberg and Samorukov will be in the AHL next season, both sustained injuries this year and neither are better than Jones in this moment. Hollands MO is overdevelopment in the minors and there has been no reason to assume anything is changing. Broberg on this years Taxi Squad is to get him practicing with the team it has no bearing on his being here next season. By 2022-23 Broberg and/or Samorukov could very well be full timers however development isn't always a straight line and I'd rather go chips in with a known commodity than with two uncertain commodities.
3. Kulikov resigning IF Klefbom is healthy seems unlikely
4. I'm under the assumption that Koskinen will be with the Oilers next season as well, too many options available to think they go for the big man
5. Perhaps a 1st is too much to take Kassian off their hands however the market will dictate the price you have to pay in order to rid contracts. And IF EDM were to be drafting say 24-31 that is a price I would be willing to pay but then again I just do this for fun
I just don't think it's worth losing out out in the first round talent that may be available in order to ride our selves of a sub par contract or risk losing another prospect. Any player picked in the first had potential to be better then any prospect getting picked from Seattle.
1. Benson is NOT available via the expansion draft via CapFriendly, and to boot he is a NHL/AHL Tweener Seattle wouldn't think twice about him at this stage.
2. Broberg and Samorukov will be in the AHL next season, both sustained injuries this year and neither are better than Jones in this moment. Hollands MO is overdevelopment in the minors and there has been no reason to assume anything is changing. Broberg on this years Taxi Squad is to get him practicing with the team it has no bearing on his being here next season. By 2022-23 Broberg and/or Samorukov could very well be full timers however development isn't always a straight line and I'd rather go chips in with a known commodity than with two uncertain commodities.
3. Kulikov resigning IF Klefbom is healthy seems unlikely
4. I'm under the assumption that Koskinen will be with the Oilers next season as well, too many options available to think they go for the big man
5. Perhaps a 1st is too much to take Kassian off their hands however the market will dictate the price you have to pay in order to rid contracts. And IF EDM were to be drafting say 24-31 that is a price I would be willing to pay but then again I just do this for fun
1. Benson is available, he simply hasn't met the exposure requirements. They can take him, the only thing is that he doesn't qualify as one of Edmonton's forwards that count as exposed. To call him a tweener seems premature: had it not been for the mandatory quarantine period, Benson would have seen NHL games sooner. If he has NHL ability, he'll come at a bargain next year. There's incentive for Seattle to take him if their options are sorely limited.
2. Both men will see 9 games. Nothing wrong with that. Holland's mantra might be to over-ripen his prospects, but he's no stranger to seeing what they can do in that window their ELC alots them. I was pretty clear in both men playing about half a season the year after next, I don't see what your worry is.
3. I don't think those things are mutually exclusive. If Holland buries Russell (and he should), Kulikov is an excellent #3LD for a season at $1.5M. Regardless, management should be preparing for Klefbom to miss up to a month of the start of the season. Kulikov is better insurance than Krusty the Kowboy.
4. Agreed.
5. I flip-flop on the idea of keeping and using this year's first and essentially, what I've concluded is that the Oilers are still a piece or two away from having a top-9 that could very well be set in stone forever. McLeod's shown very well, but I think another LW is going to be desired. Holloway and Savoie are great prospects, but I think they need another LW before it's set. The leftorium is as strong as ever, and there's some intriguing names bubbling under in net. If there's a quality RD available with this pick, or if either a LW or RC is miraculously available when Edmonton selects, I think they should use the pick. Next year's then would be used on one of the other two aforementioned positions not selected in 2021.
I think they're close to having enough high-end home-grown talent to justify moving big picks, but I think they need 2 more quality prospects in the system before they start looking exclusively to midrounders, the NCAA, and CHL free agents.
You've missed the point or not read the description if you feel the point is to deal a 1st to protect Jones, the 1st is to take Kassian or Neal
Kassian is a useful player most of the time and Neal can be bought out for just $1.9M - that's not worth a 1st either as Edmonton has TONNES of cap space going forward.
Quoting: RWellington
Jones is a valuable 2nd-3rd pair LHD on a stellar contract
Meh. He's got some raw talent and I'd certainly prefer to keep him, but he's not worth a 1st either. With Samorukov and Broberg pushing (not to mention the possibility of Klefbom returning - which you're counting on here), there's no reason to pay a heavy price to keep Jones.
It's hard to know what Seattle thinks about him, but that hardly matters. My point is Edmonton should protect 7-3-1 and let Seattle take a tweener / 7th dman / overpriced NHLer at their leisure. There's ZERO reason to trade a 1st to coerce them into taking any particular player. Zero.
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