Edited May 7, 2021 at 10:47 a.m.
Quoting: Spanky227
It’s okay, rangers can wait an extra year until eichels nmc kicks in and he forces his way out. By then the return will be worse. I like how when you fulfill the “four first round pick” requirement, so many people go “but not those first four round picks”. It’s laughable
& it's laughable that you still think Kakko has so much value. That's where you evaluate this deal wrong. Kakko wasn't a guy that was a projected top pick for years before the draft. He exploded in his draft year and his value skyrocketed, good for him. Since entering the league, he hasn't done much. 40 points in 119 games for a guy that starts in the offensive zone almost 60% of the time is not anything special. When you look into his advanced numbers, they aren't that great either. He's career corsiFor% is only 48%, career FF% is only 47.5%, career xGF is 44.5, career xGA is 46.3.. do I really need to go on from here? That's nothing special from a recent 2nd overall pick.
Here's another player's first 2 seasons that went 3rd overall to compare to see what you think of them:
Games Played: 113
Points: 58 (22G, 36A)
OZ Start Percentage: 54.55%
corsiFor: 49.3%
FenwickFor: 50.6%
expected GF: 49.95
expected GA: 46
So based on these 2 players first 2 seasons, who would you rather have or think would have more value? Well player B that I listed was better in every stat I listed that suggested he created more offence while playing a stronger defensive game and still putting up more points. So if that was me, I'd take player B every day of the week. Do you know who that is?
....
Well player B is Alex Galchenyuk. Similar story with him as he was drafted and came along in his career. Both players weren't much on the radar until their draft seasons, then exploded. The difference is that Galchenyuk went off in his season before his draft year, then was injured for the majority of his draft season. Alex Galchenyuk had a lot of hype out of his draft, being a highly offensive centre that some saw as a future #1 centre, but even after his second season in the league a lot of people were doubting that. Now I'm not saying that their value would have been exactly the same, but what I am saying is that from what Kakko has performed on the ice so far in his career, doesn't suggest he has an insane amount of value.
Now where Lafreniere comes in, is that he was hyped up since he was 16 playing in the QMJHL and compared to Crosby from the get go. He performed at an exceptional level in all 3 of his junior seasons and on the international stage with team Canada. Everyone in the league sees him as a future top line player that can change a franchise. This season hasn't been the best, but he's put up 0.36 points per game which is still more than Kakko has put up in either of his seasons. & no one is doubting that Lafreniere will live up to his potential either. That's still worth more than 2 first round picks just himself alone, can you say that Kakko is worth that much? I'd bet there's no GM in the league that would give up multiple firsts for Kakko right now.
I apologize for the long read, but my point is that just because a guy was drafted in the 1st round or taken 2nd overall, doesn't mean he has "first round pick value". Buffalo said they want the equivalent of 4 1st round picks. If Kakko was in the deal, that might count for 1. If Lafreniere was in it, that likely counts for at least 2. But if Adam Fox was in it, would he count as a "first round pick value" or would he count for more than that? But by your logic he can't because he was taken in the 3rd round. Bottom line: where a guy was selected doesn't asses his value. Kakko being taken 2nd overall recently doesn't mean he has high value. You have to look at their current production and their future projection. & that's why a deal for Eichel starts with Lafreniere, because Eichel produces at a high rate currently, and projected to produce at a higher rate each year beyond this. Kakko's production doesn't project to be that high, he might be at best a point per game player. But Lafreniere's production is projected to be around Eichel's in the future once he develops.
Final thing, sure you say New York can wait till Eichel's NMC kicks in to lower the value, sure. That only works if 2 things happen:
1. New York knows that he wants to go to New York
2. Eichel actually wants to go to New York
You think when he can control his destination that it has to be New York? What about his home state and going back to the Bruins? What about the sunny beaches and high celebrity status in LA? What about a consistent contender in a low tax state in Vegas? Same for Tampa? Or maybe he grew up slightly cheering for another team that he'd like to go to. You don't know. & you take the risk for being stubborn now.
Cheers.