Shoutout to @MrApplesauce: I liked his AGM and wanted to make my own tweaks and expand on his work (https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/448277?post_id=2318565). Keep in mind I don't know the Sabres super well: I only really maintain an interest in rebuilding teams.
Tankathon simulation has the Sabres picking third behind the Senators and Devils: my suspicion is that Beniers and Power go first and second overall, leaving the Sabres with Guenther. With the 9th overall pick, I would see the Sabres take Chaz Lucius. The 16th pick would be used to select Matthew Coronato.
Given these picks and assets already in the system, I think the Sabres 'rebuild' should only last 3 years tops and will correlate with the development of the 2021 draft selections: the trio all return to the NCAA/WHL for a season, play in Rochester for a year, and then look to make the big club. Along the way, the Sabres have a near-guaranteed shot at one of Lambert, Savoie, and Wright, as well as a top prospect from the 2023 draft. In the meantime, Laaksonen, Quinn, Samuelsson, and UPL will likely graduate into full-time NHLers for the 2022-23 season while the graduations of Chisholm, Coronato, Guenther, Lucius, Lundkvist, and Peterka all follow suit with the selection of a top prospect at the 2023 draft.
I figure Skinner is going to be bought out at the end of the 2023 season regardless of performance over the next two years. There's a lot of risk in that contract and none of it has been warranted lately. Kapanen and Olofsson are likely Sabres for at least until this point as well, possibly until the end of 2025 when it's no longer feasible to keep their cap on the roster.
The Sabres are going to look top capitalize on waning Bruins and Panthers teams in order to compete for a playoff spot with the likes of Detroit, Montreal, and Ottawa with a fast, high-skilled, very young roster. The selling point for the Pegulas to reinvest in the Sabres like they did in the Bills will likely require an internal cap over the next 5ish years: after bonuses are accounted for, let the extra near-$10M be used to redesign the scouting departments and facilities accessible via the players. This show of good faith to the fans, players, and prospects must be made.
The only reason I don't maximize the available cash for the Pegulas to throw at upper management is because I believe there's an opportunity for the Sabres to pick up Vancouver's pick by 'outbidding' other teams in terms of value going back to the Canucks: Davidsson being a former 2nd rounder, likely not interested in signing in Buffalo, and needing a change in scenery outside of Sweden represents more value going back to Vancouver than most teams looking to take on Eriksson for the Canucks' draft capital. I'd even be willing to include up to the Bruins' 2nd round pick. Key point is getting pick #9 for a year of Louis is always going to be worthwhile to a rebuilding organization.
Alexis is untouchable. I think the offer would start with Kakko and go from there.
I've seen, heard, and believe otherwise:
Panarin and Kreider are signed until the end of time. Depth is great, but Lafreniere coming in at anything above $4M on his next deal (very likely) puts the Rangers in a bad spot in terms of cap. Kakko's emergence as one of the best defensive forwards in the game makes him a hell of a lot harder to justify trading: he's the perfect compliment to either a Kreider-Eichel pairing or a Panarin-Zibenejad pairing, Buchnevich landing on whichever other line while Strome and Kravtsov feast on lesser opposition.
Intrinsically, Kakko has more value to the Rangers today than Lafreniere does. He performs a unique role on the club that isn't predominantly offered elsewhere.
You also have to consider the Sabres' side of this too: top centermen of Eichel's calibre are never made available. Tavares hitting UFA is the only other instance I can think of. These pieces don't move willingly, thus there's always going to be a steep acquisition cost: the Sabres were specific about a return of four first round equivalents: given the minor surplus value going back to New York *plus* the Sabres taking a less prove piece in Lundkvist, there's justification in having Lafreniere over Kakko here.
Canucks aren't giving a top 10 pick for a 1 year cap dump. Pass
You're blatantly overlooking the point of the return on this dump being higher than anything anyone else is offering, including up to recouping a 2nd round pick.
I'm not against bumping the pick to 2022, but you're likely not getting a return beyond Davidsson.
Tbh I think it heavily favors the Sabres. When was the last time a #1 center returned that much value, let alone one on the verge of wanting out?
To answer your question with another question: when was the last time a center of Eichel's calibre was moved? Duchene is close, but didn't have either the term nor ceiling Eichel does.
I think if a move happens, it meets Adams' ask of 4 first-round equivalents.
Panarin and Kreider are signed until the end of time. Depth is great, but Lafreniere coming in at anything above $4M on his next deal (very likely) puts the Rangers in a bad spot in terms of cap. Kakko's emergence as one of the best defensive forwards in the game makes him a hell of a lot harder to justify trading: he's the perfect compliment to either a Kreider-Eichel pairing or a Panarin-Zibenejad pairing, Buchnevich landing on whichever other line while Strome and Kravtsov feast on lesser opposition.
Intrinsically, Kakko has more value to the Rangers today than Lafreniere does. He performs a unique role on the club that isn't predominantly offered elsewhere.
You also have to consider the Sabres' side of this too: top centermen of Eichel's calibre are never made available. Tavares hitting UFA is the only other instance I can think of. These pieces don't move willingly, thus there's always going to be a steep acquisition cost: the Sabres were specific about a return of four first round equivalents: given the minor surplus value going back to New York *plus* the Sabres taking a less prove piece in Lundkvist, there's justification in having Lafreniere over Kakko here.
Appreciate the thoughtful and thorough response. You bring up the salary cap and justifiably so which is a valid concern but at the present time, the Rangers only have 4 players under contract in 23-24. In hindsight, the Kreider contract might be killer in the long term but both his and Trouba's contracts have modified NTC's the last couple of years so there is always hope they can move one of those contracts out.
I believe if you would ask most Ranger fans, we would tell you that Kakko is our 3rd best defensive RW behind Buchneivich (who has grown tremendously defensively) and Kravstov.
IMO if the Rangers trade for Eichel, the Zibby is going because he is going to want his payday too and I don't think the Rangers can afford Panarin, Eichel, Trouba and Zibby all making over $8M (along with whatever Fox commands next offseason).
Agree that players of Eichel's caliber are very rarely made available.
To answer your question with another question: when was the last time a center of Eichel's calibre was moved? Duchene is close, but didn't have either the term nor ceiling Eichel does.
I think if a move happens, it meets Adams' ask of 4 first-round equivalents.
A #1 overall pick (Lafrenière) is more than just a regular mid 1st round pick. I had off the top of my head Ryan O'Reilly who was older and not as good as Eichel, but still. Such a package could have been in the realm of possibility if Eichel was leading a contending Sabres team, but he's not and is on the verge of wanting out.
A #1 overall pick (Lafrenière) is more than just a regular mid 1st round pick. I had off the top of my head Ryan O'Reilly who was older and not as good as Eichel, but still. Such a package could have been in the realm of possibility if Eichel was leading a contending Sabres team, but he's not and is on the verge of wanting out.
The Sabres did not get anything near equivalent value for O'Reilly and you're openly admitting he's not as good. I still don't think you're close.
Lafreniere is a substantial piece yes - the cornerstone of this trade - but the trio of Chytil, Lundkvist, and the 2021 1st are mid-valued at best: Chytil is worth about a mid-first, the 2021 pick is a mid-first, and Lundqvist is probably worth a high 2nd at this point.
The Sabres did not get anything near equivalent value for O'Reilly and you're openly admitting he's not as good. I still don't think you're close.
Lafreniere is a substantial piece yes - the cornerstone of this trade - but the trio of Chytil, Lundkvist, and the 2021 1st are mid-valued at best: Chytil is worth about a mid-first, the 2021 pick is a mid-first, and Lundqvist is probably worth a high 2nd at this point.
I agree. Tarasenko should have been the return to Buffalo for O'Reilly.
The Sabres did not get anything near equivalent value for O'Reilly and you're openly admitting he's not as good. I still don't think you're close.
That's exactly what I said, the most recent trade that is close to a hypothetical Eichel trade is O'Reilly's. They didn't get as much as O'Reilly was "worth" and historically 1st line centers almost never fetched as much as they should have.
I agree. Tarasenko should have been the return to Buffalo for O'Reilly.
I can't tell if you're being facetious or not.
I fully believe the trade should have been Thomas, the two cap dumps, and the picks as they were OR Kyrou, the two dumps, and two firsts. Thompson was a mistake from the get-go.
Appreciate the thoughtful and thorough response. You bring up the salary cap and justifiably so which is a valid concern but at the present time, the Rangers only have 4 players under contract in 23-24. In hindsight, the Kreider contract might be killer in the long term but both his and Trouba's contracts have modified NTC's the last couple of years so there is always hope they can move one of those contracts out.
I believe if you would ask most Ranger fans, we would tell you that Kakko is our 3rd best defensive RW behind Buchneivich (who has grown tremendously defensively) and Kravstov.
IMO if the Rangers trade for Eichel, the Zibby is going because he is going to want his payday too and I don't think the Rangers can afford Panarin, Eichel, Trouba and Zibby all making over $8M (along with whatever Fox commands next offseason).
Agree that players of Eichel's caliber are very rarely made available.
Kaapo isn’t our third best defensive rw? He’s top 3 defensive forward on our team at the minimum he might even be 1-2. And Mika isn’t going to Buffalo do people not understand NMCs?
This is the best ACGM I’ve seen for an Eichel trade. From a Sabres fan, I would honestly be happy with Lafrieniere and Lundqvist as a return for Eichel, we wouldn’t even need Chytil and 1st in my opinion
Kaapo isn’t our third best defensive rw? He’s top 3 defensive forward on our team at the minimum he might even be 1-2. And Mika isn’t going to Buffalo do people not understand NMCs?
Buch and Krav are both better defensively than Kakko. Agree that Mika isn't going to Buffalo (never said he was just to be clear).
Panarin and Kreider are signed until the end of time. Depth is great, but Lafreniere coming in at anything above $4M on his next deal (very likely) puts the Rangers in a bad spot in terms of cap. Kakko's emergence as one of the best defensive forwards in the game makes him a hell of a lot harder to justify trading: he's the perfect compliment to either a Kreider-Eichel pairing or a Panarin-Zibenejad pairing, Buchnevich landing on whichever other line while Strome and Kravtsov feast on lesser opposition.
Intrinsically, Kakko has more value to the Rangers today than Lafreniere does. He performs a unique role on the club that isn't predominantly offered elsewhere.
You also have to consider the Sabres' side of this too: top centermen of Eichel's calibre are never made available. Tavares hitting UFA is the only other instance I can think of. These pieces don't move willingly, thus there's always going to be a steep acquisition cost: the Sabres were specific about a return of four first round equivalents: given the minor surplus value going back to New York *plus* the Sabres taking a less prove piece in Lundkvist, there's justification in having Lafreniere over Kakko here.
I get what u said eichels don’t grow on trees and it’s rare they hit the market but you aren’t getting laf, Chytil, nils, and a first. First of all laf won’t be available you say our lw had Kreider and Panarin but we can just play Kreider on the third line and give our third line more minutes. Cap isn’t an issue if you have young talent that has value, cap is an issue if you have lots of bad contracts (not saying Kreider and trouba aren’t bad contracts) but we will always be able to trade these talented players who are young if we need cap as they’ll have value. The argument isn’t valid.
Buch and Krav are both better defensively than Kakko. Agree that Mika isn't going to Buffalo (never said he was just to be clear).
Oh I thought u meant zibby going in a trade not just leaving for free agency or another team. You might be able to make an argument for buch this year because of his play and the pk but kakko is probably our best defensive forward and definitely not our third best defensive rw. If you think that I’m convinced you didn’t even watch any games and even if you didn’t look at all the stats and analytics backing that kakko is probably our best defensive forward from last year if not top 2-3.
I get what u said eichels don’t grow on trees and it’s rare they hit the market but you aren’t getting laf, Chytil, nils, and a first. First of all laf won’t be available you say our lw had Kreider and Panarin but we can just play Kreider on the third line and give our third line more minutes. Cap isn’t an issue if you have young talent that has value, cap is an issue if you have lots of bad contracts (not saying Kreider and trouba aren’t bad contracts) but we will always be able to trade these talented players who are young if we need cap as they’ll have value. The argument isn’t valid.
You can't just assume players will waive NTCs or NMCs to strictly benefit the Rangers. Other clubs have to be capable of taking those players on at a price they're willing to pay. Trading from the ilk of Fox, Kakko, Kravtsov, Lafreniere, Miller, and the two goaltenders doesn't make sense in terms of building a competent roster. Those are the players you move heaven and earth to keep.
My point isn't that Lafreniere isn't expendable: it's that the internal value of Kakko is higher to the Rangers right now.
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