Top-16

Forums/Mock-Draft

Page 1 of 1

Draft Class: 2021

Published: May 16, 2021 at 3:46 p.m.

DRAFT

TEXT-EMBED

Round 1
1. Matthew Beniers (Buffalo Sabres) (Details: Regardless of whether or not they trade Eichel, Beniers has a ton of upside and would occupy a crucial position. Having him in the system could make an Eichel trade more flexible, not requiring that a top-center MUST be included.).
2. Owen Power (Detroit Red Wings) (Details: Hard to pass up on both a kid grown in your own backyard and one that is likely close to being NHL ready and plays a position of need. I think Wallstedt might be higher on their list but passing up on Power would be lunacy).
3. Dylan Guenther (Anaheim Ducks) (Details: Everyone in the top-3 gets something that they want, with the Ducks finding a finishing partner to pair with Zegras down the stretch. If Detroit remains patient with Power, I think Guenther is the player most apt to make the NHL next year given that there's not a lot of reason to leave him in the WHL much longer. Maybe they try Europe?).
4. Simon Edvinsson (Seattle Kraken) (Details: Welcome to the NHL. On your way in, make sure you grab a complimentary top-pairing defender and grow him in-house for a few seasons before bringing him up to the NHL.

Typially I'd have Hughes going here for marketability, but the gap between Simon and Luke is vast.).
5. Brandt Clarke (Vancouver Canucks) (Details: NEW JERSEY DEVILS

The back end is missing few dominant pieces, and nowhere else more than at RHD. Grab a brother, fill a position of need, and grab the BPA in the same pick? That's lucky.).
6. William Eklund (New Jersey Devils) (Details: COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS

He's not Beniers but he's very much the best piece abailable here. A lot of people thought Pettersson would be an NHL winger and his development allowed him to become one of the premier young centers in the game. Jarmo will look to try and accomplish the same thing here. Worst case scenario, hell of a winger to grab at #6.).
7. Kent Johnson (Columbus Blue Jackets) (Details: SAN JOSE SHARKS

Requisite Johnson to San Jose pick. Thanks for coming.).
8. Jesper Wallstedt (Los Angeles Kings) (Details: So this one's a touch off the board. In my eyes the Kings need wingers and a goalie to tandem with Cal in the future. The names they have in the system aren't promising besides Ingham. Wallstedt's a near-guarantee and fills that void immediately. Grab some wingers with your seconds and next year pick: this piece doesn't come along very often, if at all.).
9. Luke Hughes (San Jose Sharks) (Details: VANCOUVER CANUCKS

Not the best pick available. The Canucks try to get cute with a pair of brothers (seen this one before) but it's hard to blame them. They definitely need a piece on the back end but needs are being prioritized over taking Lysell.).
10. Fabian Lysell (Ottawa Senators) (Details: The Sens instead capitalize on Benning's nepotism and in drafting Lysell make the commitment to trying to develop Stuetzle as a centerman. If they can grab a quality pivot next year maybe they flip-flop on that idea down the road.).
11. Chaz Lucius (Calgary Flames) (Details: Repeat after me: Calgary needs right-handed shots. First piece added in what's likely going to be a two-ish year retool. Probably develops as a winger for the Flames.).
13. Mason McTavish (Chicago Blackhawks) (Details: McTavish's draft stock went sky-high after the U18's and it's hard to not blame Chicago for grabbing him here. Not many quality defenders in this range and they need pieces all over. He'll fit nicely as Dach's LW.).
14. Cole Sillinger (Philadelphia Flyers) (Details: Best player available. Hard to see the Flyers keeping this pick. Sillinger goes here regardless of who's taking him, but I suspect the Flyers make a move for a RHD with this pick.).
15. Nikita Chibrikov (Montreal Canadiens) (Details: DALLAS STARS

Here's where I suspect the certainty of most mock drafts drop off. With a lack of quality pivots and defenders here, Dallas is locked into taking a winger. Chibrikov's stock, like McTavish's went through the roof during the U18's and they'd have gotten a good look at him in the meantime given they hosted. Matthew Coronato could go here too, but my guess is they want the RW over another LW.).
16. Zachary Bolduc (St. Louis Blues) (Details: NEW YORK RANGERS

Not necessarily the 'best' player available but he's far from a reach here. The only thing the Rangers are missing in their system are more quality pivots and I like what I've seen from Bolduc's two years in junior. He'll be interesting to see at full health next year.).

CapFriendly.com User-Generated Mock-Draft

ROUND 1	TEAM	ORIGINAL	PLAYER	DETAILS

1	-	Matthew Beniers	Regardless of whether or not they trade Eichel, Beniers has a ton of upside and would occupy a crucial position. Having him in the system could make an Eichel trade more flexible, not requiring that a top-center MUST be included.
2	-	Owen Power	Hard to pass up on both a kid grown in your own backyard and one that is likely close to being NHL ready and plays a position of need. I think Wallstedt might be higher on their list but passing up on Power would be lunacy
3	-	Dylan Guenther	Everyone in the top-3 gets something that they want, with the Ducks finding a finishing partner to pair with Zegras down the stretch. If Detroit remains patient with Power, I think Guenther is the player most apt to make the NHL next year given that there's not a lot of reason to leave him in the WHL much longer. Maybe they try Europe?
4	-	Simon Edvinsson	Welcome to the NHL. On your way in, make sure you grab a complimentary top-pairing defender and grow him in-house for a few seasons before bringing him up to the NHL. Typially I'd have Hughes going here for marketability, but the gap between Simon and Luke is vast.
5	-	Brandt Clarke	NEW JERSEY DEVILS The back end is missing few dominant pieces, and nowhere else more than at RHD. Grab a brother, fill a position of need, and grab the BPA in the same pick? That's lucky.
6	-	William Eklund	COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS He's not Beniers but he's very much the best piece abailable here. A lot of people thought Pettersson would be an NHL winger and his development allowed him to become one of the premier young centers in the game. Jarmo will look to try and accomplish the same thing here. Worst case scenario, hell of a winger to grab at #6.
7	-	Kent Johnson	SAN JOSE SHARKS Requisite Johnson to San Jose pick. Thanks for coming.
8	-	Jesper Wallstedt	So this one's a touch off the board. In my eyes the Kings need wingers and a goalie to tandem with Cal in the future. The names they have in the system aren't promising besides Ingham. Wallstedt's a near-guarantee and fills that void immediately. Grab some wingers with your seconds and next year pick: this piece doesn't come along very often, if at all.
9	-	Luke Hughes	VANCOUVER CANUCKS Not the best pick available. The Canucks try to get cute with a pair of brothers (seen this one before) but it's hard to blame them. They definitely need a piece on the back end but needs are being prioritized over taking Lysell.
10	-	Fabian Lysell	The Sens instead capitalize on Benning's nepotism and in drafting Lysell make the commitment to trying to develop Stuetzle as a centerman. If they can grab a quality pivot next year maybe they flip-flop on that idea down the road.
11	-	Chaz Lucius	Repeat after me: Calgary needs right-handed shots. First piece added in what's likely going to be a two-ish year retool. Probably develops as a winger for the Flames.
12	-		Draft Pick Forfeited
13	-	Mason McTavish	McTavish's draft stock went sky-high after the U18's and it's hard to not blame Chicago for grabbing him here. Not many quality defenders in this range and they need pieces all over. He'll fit nicely as Dach's LW.
14	-	Cole Sillinger	Best player available. Hard to see the Flyers keeping this pick. Sillinger goes here regardless of who's taking him, but I suspect the Flyers make a move for a RHD with this pick.
15	-	Nikita Chibrikov	DALLAS STARS Here's where I suspect the certainty of most mock drafts drop off. With a lack of quality pivots and defenders here, Dallas is locked into taking a winger. Chibrikov's stock, like McTavish's went through the roof during the U18's and they'd have gotten a good look at him in the meantime given they hosted. Matthew Coronato could go here too, but my guess is they want the RW over another LW.
16	-	Zachary Bolduc	NEW YORK RANGERS Not necessarily the 'best' player available but he's far from a reach here. The only thing the Rangers are missing in their system are more quality pivots and I like what I've seen from Bolduc's two years in junior. He'll be interesting to see at full health next year.
17	-
18	-
19	-
20	-
21	-
22
23	-
24
25
26	-
27
28	-
29
30	-
31	-
32	-

May 16, 2021 at 3:47 p.m.

BeterChiarelli

Ban Price trades

Joined: Oct. 2017

Posts: 6,482

Likes: 6,455

I'll likely do 17-32 later tonight. Can't wait for mock drafts to get a standings update lol

May 16, 2021 at 4:23 p.m.

A_Habs_fan

SHL NJD GM

Joined: Oct. 2020

Posts: 12,784

Likes: 17,415

Interesting D rankings i like Hughes the most out of all the top 4 D's, Edvinsson then Power then Clarke.

May 16, 2021 at 4:43 p.m.

papishark

Joined: Aug. 2019

Posts: 8,800

Likes: 3,226

Well that wasnt very informative on the sharks pick

May 16, 2021 at 4:55 p.m.

BeterChiarelli

Thread Starter

Ban Price trades

Joined: Oct. 2017

Posts: 6,482

Likes: 6,455

Quoting: A_Habs_fan

Interesting D rankings i like Hughes the most out of all the top 4 D's, Edvinsson then Power then Clarke.

Based on?

Hughes plays in the weaker leagues (both the USHL and USDP rate lower than the Swedish J20 league by NHLe) and is yet to play against men. Both Edvinsson and Power played well against both peers and those senior to them this season. Clarke got premier minutes AND played in the strongest league of all four defenders. If we use NHLe as a rough metric to compare their offensive totals:

Clarke: 82GP 9.184G - 18.368A - 27.552P
Power: 82GP - 3.238G - 14.030A - 17.268P
Edvinsson: 82GP - 0.563G - 11.864A - 12.427A
Hughes: 82GP - 2.410G - 8.406A - 10.816P

Keep in mind that unlike forwards, NHLe is a bit flawed when it comes to defenceman. Scoring isn't their bread and butter, but it does give a quick snapshot at how skilled they are.

We see that Hughes has been the least productive of the bunch. We also know that both NCAA freshmen and Swedish juniors rarely see the premier minutes. Power and Edvinsson are out-producing Hughes by a noticeable margin without the key minutes. Clarke's numbers need to be taken with a grain of salt: his numbers are very much a fact of his seeing top line and powerplay usage and he won't immediately translate that well immediately. A return to junior will demonstrate how capable he is, and AHL minutes will confirm it. I take a lot of consideration into the fact that McKenzie and a lot of other reputable scouting services have Hughes behind Power at a minimum. Stylistically, there may be more upside to Hughes over Edvinsson in a few years' time, but from what I see today Edvinsson is currently the better player. Clarke's handedness on top of his productivity give him a substantial amount of value on its own, and I think he goes high more because of his handedness and ability to quarterback a powerplay over his ability to defend.

The biggest thing Hughes has going for him right now is his name.

Fishbrain liked this.

May 16, 2021 at 4:58 p.m.

BeterChiarelli

Thread Starter

Ban Price trades

Joined: Oct. 2017

Posts: 6,482

Likes: 6,455

Quoting: papishark

Well that wasnt very informative on the sharks pick

He's the pick that's most apt to keep the Sharks competitive over the next half decade given the mandate from management and Karlsson. A lot of drafts have him going to the Sharks.

Someone compared him to Marner-lite and I think the better comparison is RNH-lite. See analysis below:

Quoting: BeterChiarelli

I'm personally not hating on him, it's a matter of how he's been utilized and the development path he's taken.

Kent Johnson: D-1 and D0 NHLe:
82GP - 8.056G - 12.66A - 20.716P
82GP - 9.714G - 19.426A - 29.140P.

The path for any Canadian forward into the NCAA without going through the USHL takes a toll on both their numbers and their draft stock: Canadian Jr. A isn't yet a prolific enough of a set of leagues to suggest it's the best developmental environment for top prospects. The BCHL is Canada's top Jr.A league and it's still about 25% weaker than the USHL. It doesn't help that Johnson is a genuine beanpole and doesn't engage in any physical play at all. Hockey men are a bit proterozoic in this regard and will make note of it.

For reference, Marner's D-1 and D0 numbers:
82GP: 5.669G - 18.423A - 24.092P
82GP 19.582G - 32.883A - 52.465P

RNH's D-1 and D0 numbers:
82GP: 8.587G - 15.385A - 23.972P
82GP: 11.399G - 26.706A - 38.105P

Marner was in a completely different stratosphere come his draft day than Johnson is today. In terms of size, style, position, and usage, Johnson is clearly RNH-lite, falling about 9 NHL points shy in terms of what RNH was projected to be when he went first overall. It's not a poor comparison, RNH is a multi-tool that can take faceoffs but is likely a very average #2C at best. More suited to the wing.

papishark liked this.

May 16, 2021 at 5:00 p.m.

A_Habs_fan

SHL NJD GM

Joined: Oct. 2020

Posts: 12,784

Likes: 17,415

Quoting: BeterChiarelli

My analysis of their play and scouting reports, i'm definitely not the best scout but i really like Edvinsson and Hughes

May 16, 2021 at 5:02 p.m.

BeterChiarelli

Thread Starter

Ban Price trades

Joined: Oct. 2017

Posts: 6,482

Likes: 6,455

Quoting: A_Habs_fan

My analysis of their play and scouting reports, i'm definitely not the best scout but i really like Edvinsson and Hughes

Until I see a reason to elevate Hughes beyond marketability, I don't think I will.

A_Habs_fan liked this.

May 16, 2021 at 5:16 p.m.

nickthehabsfan

Joined: May 2020

Posts: 1,786

Likes: 1,559

Quoting: BeterChiarelli

Where did you get the NHLe values?

May 16, 2021 at 5:28 p.m.

BeterChiarelli

Thread Starter

Ban Price trades

Joined: Oct. 2017

Posts: 6,482

Likes: 6,455

Quoting: HabsFan77

Where did you get the NHLe values?

I use mannyelk's values that he posted to his Twitter July 3rd 2018. Ever so slightly outdated but I don't think Volmann has published anything more up to date. Last I checked you need to follow him on Twitter in order to access the NHLe values. My formula is as follows:

(stat / games played) * 82 NHL games * 2 * (NHLe Factor)

The x2 multiplier works its way in there because the Dobber calculator was doubling the values I was coming up without it for U21 players. 22 and above it's discluded iirc.

Should also note that the Edvinsson and Hughes values are unweighted averages of their seasons across various leagues. I don't include playoffs or international tournaments due to a lack of sample size for both and an unreliable conversion factor for the latter.

nickthehabsfan liked this.

May 16, 2021 at 5:46 p.m.

#10

aedoran