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Archibald Suspended - Game 4 Lines

Created by: BeterChiarelli
Team: 2020-21 Edmonton Oilers
Initial Creation Date: May 24, 2021
Published: May 24, 2021
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Well, this is it. Smith confirmed the starter and honestly, I don't disagree with the call. The team doesn't trust Koskinen anyways: starting him would signal to the players that we aren't expecting a win tonight.

I don't know if there's a better option for the lines. Bear had a fantastic 46 minutes before the entire team imploded. Keep him with Nurse: the Koekkoek-Barrie pairing was really good last night. The fourth line wingers will see 5 minutes of icetime tonight unless they score. Khaira can rotate on the 3rd with Haas and will get PK time but Kahun and Turris are there only because the club is mandated to ice a full roster. I'm not against going 11F-7D either and taking one of Kahun or Turris out entirely.

Your feelings regarding Bear and Jones are irrelevant: they are two of Edmonton's best defenders this season and their ability to transition the puck and help provide offense cannot be overstated in quite literally a do-or-die game. I'm tired of fans that peaked with grade 11 math claiming they aren't.

A lot of guys not named Draisaitl, McDavid, Nurse, and Puljujarvi need to have monstrous games tonight.
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May 24, 2021 at 2:17 p.m.
#1
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It was kinda harsh suspending him for the rest of the playoffs
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May 24, 2021 at 2:23 p.m.
#2
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Quoting: TheAlien
It was kinda harsh suspending him for the rest of the playoffs


I'm of the opinion that getting swept tonight does the franchise more good in the long run than extending this embarrassment any further.
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May 24, 2021 at 2:30 p.m.
#3
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Bear with Nurse is a mistake.
May 24, 2021 at 2:42 p.m.
#4
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I like bear with nurse LOL, I think they played great until the team collapsed. Splitting the big two is EDMs path to victory and I said it since the beginning. Looking forward to a close fun game tonight. Hopefully Edmonton hasn’t checked out yet c
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May 24, 2021 at 2:46 p.m.
#5
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Quoting: Nhl_oilers
Bear with Nurse is a mistake.


Nah. It's really not.
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May 24, 2021 at 2:48 p.m.
#6
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Quoting: BeterChiarelli
Nah. It's really not.




It really is. Bear made some horrible passes last night, and he got outmuscled for the puck. Barrie with Nurse is way better.
May 24, 2021 at 3:01 p.m.
#7
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Quoting: Nhl_oilers
It really is. Bear made some horrible passes last night, and he got outmuscled for the puck. Barrie with Nurse is way better.


Barrie with Nurse cannot play away from McDavid in any capacity. Barrie is such a defensive anchor on Nurse that their CF% drops to sub-40%. I don't care to what degree anyone subscribes to analytics: if your overall production and effectiveness drops by half because you lose the offensive pressure brought about by the McDavid line, you shouldn't be a top-pair defender.

Koekkoek-Barrie was one of the first instances where Barrie was finally effective away from McDavid and wasn't in the red. Nurse is going to be counted on to eat 30+ minutes tonight and provide defensive stability: there may be moments where he plays with Barrie but being put with Bear - who's same CF% more often than not hover above 57% regardless of the line they're paired with - provides a much more sound defensive unit less likely to get burned. Tyson has looked so much worse this series and I genuinely believe he's been banged up since mid-April but not enough for Tippett to make the intelligent decision to rest him. NHL players are dumb when it comes to playing through injuries and this coach is no stranger to not making good decisions.

Bear had a bad gaffe in the back 15 minutes of the game when the entire team went up in flames. McDavid directly caused a goal against. Good players are going to make mistakes too. The numbers for Nurse-Bear don't lie: it's Edmonton's best pairing by any metric. This is too pivotal of a game to keep banking on hope regarding a Nurse-Barrie pairing. They aren't a good enough unit. Balance out the team's collection of defenders and puck movers to limit how often Edmonton is trapped in their own zone and play 50 minutes in front of Hellebuyck. It's the only option left.
May 24, 2021 at 3:04 p.m.
#8
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Quoting: BeterChiarelli
Barrie with Nurse cannot play away from McDavid in any capacity. Barrie is such a defensive anchor on Nurse that their CF% drops to sub-40%. I don't care to what degree anyone subscribes to analytics: if your overall production and effectiveness drops by half because you lose the offensive pressure brought about by the McDavid line, you shouldn't be a top-pair defender.

Koekkoek-Barrie was one of the first instances where Barrie was finally effective away from McDavid and wasn't in the red. Nurse is going to be counted on to eat 30+ minutes tonight and provide defensive stability: there may be moments where he plays with Barrie but being put with Bear - who's same CF% more often than not hover above 57% regardless of the line they're paired with - provides a much more sound defensive unit less likely to get burned. Tyson has looked so much worse this series and I genuinely believe he's been banged up since mid-April but not enough for Tippett to make the intelligent decision to rest him. NHL players are dumb when it comes to playing through injuries and this coach is no stranger to not making good decisions.

Bear had a bad gaffe in the back 15 minutes of the game when the entire team went up in flames. McDavid directly caused a goal against. Good players are going to make mistakes too. The numbers for Nurse-Bear don't lie: it's Edmonton's best pairing by any metric. This is too pivotal of a game to keep banking on hope regarding a Nurse-Barrie pairing. They aren't a good enough unit. Balance out the team's collection of defenders and puck movers to limit how often Edmonton is trapped in their own zone and play 50 minutes in front of Hellebuyck. It's the only option left.


If we make the Nurse-Bear pairing, we will for sure lose. Barrie is way better, and better with Nurse. Bear played bad the whole game, not just 15 minutes, and it’s not just this game, it has been the whole season. I definitely disagree with you, and I believe we should trade Bear immediately. He doesn’t fit with Edmonton.
May 24, 2021 at 3:31 p.m.
#9
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Quoting: Nhl_oilers
If we make the Nurse-Bear pairing, we will for sure lose. Barrie is way better, and better with Nurse. Bear played bad the whole game, not just 15 minutes, and it’s not just this game, it has been the whole season. I definitely disagree with you, and I believe we should trade Bear immediately. He doesn’t fit with Edmonton.


I can't find the numbers that include the forwards (which probably skews *every* pairing to the positive given that sweet McDavid icetime) so hang tight while I make this point:

Nurse and Bear together over 43GP (257:53TOI) have a CF% of 54% via NaturalStatTrick. This is statistically Edmonton's strongest pairing at 5v5 when considering the minutes it eats: everything else that's outperformed them has done so on a scale of time less than a period in length. The only reason that TOI spread over the GP equals six minutes is because it's the pairing Tippett has defaulted to in the third period of almost every game the Oilers have held a lead in or have been tied after 40. This is the pairing he trusts the most when it matters and they need to be kept together. Kulikov-Larsson have posted a 55.19% but for only about 14 minutes per night.

The Koekkoek-Barrie pairing has put up the same CF% numbers as the Nurse-Barrie pairing has during the playoffs thus far: this is spectacular. Great news. This gives Edmonton the automatic opportunity to have three strong defense pairings. Nurse-Bear has a history of working. Either Kulikov-Larsson or Jones-Larsson is a strong second pair. None of the possible pairings of Kulikov-Bear, Kulikov-Bouchard, Koekkoek-Bouchard, or Jones-Bear are good enough to turn to in an elimination game: all of them lose the shot battle at evens. Jones-Bouchard or Koekkoek-Bear have not been trialed as much as a pairing (very little sample size) so you have to take their gaudy CF% numbers from the regular season into consideration. Koekkoek-Bear in the playoffs is only breaking even. Tippett - for the lack of any better reason - doesn't trust either Bouchard or Jones enough to use them consistently in the regular season and isn't going to turn to them in an elimination game when the rest of the roster is healthy.

In close, the history of Nurse-Bear suggests their getting shelled last night isn't typical. This is a strong pairing. Toss a coin on whether or not you want Jones in over Kulikov to play with Larsson as their effectiveness is about equal. The real benefit to dropping Barrie down with Koekkoek is that it's a load Barrie is clearly much more capable of handling: it makes Edmonton's bottom pair exponentially better without any real detractions from the other two pairings. Down a goal or in a hot swing of momentum? Sure, give Nurse-Barrie a shift or two together. I don't think we need to be so rigid in the idea of the two NOT playing together: their shot numbers - even if they are being vaulted by the McDavid line - are still very much in the positive. Use it if it's appropriate, just like reuniting Draisaitl and McDavid.

I'm not against trading Bear in a smart trade. The idea of giving him away for nothing substantial reminds me of the Petry trade: he's the new whipping boy (I'll reiterate that I think a lot (not all) of the fans that have turned on he and Jones because they aren't white: we're still in Alberta after all) for no real reason, has phenomenal underlying numbers, the fans zoom in on two or three exclusive windows where he's at his worst over a period of less than 2 games, and calls for the first bus out of town grow louder. If Bear's the piece that nets the Oilers a bonafide top-six winger or a Gibson-esque starter, I'll toy with the idea. A third liner or draft picks? Piss off. He's better than that.
May 24, 2021 at 3:47 p.m.
#10
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Quoting: TheAlien
It was kinda harsh suspending him for the rest of the playoffs

That is the funniest thing I have heard today
 
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