My suspicions with Holland

Forums/Armchair-GM

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Created by: BeterChiarelli

Team: 2021-22 Edmonton Oilers

Initial Creation Date: May 26, 2021

Published: May 26, 2021

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

Disclaimer: absolutely not what I'd do.

Today's afternoon presser emphasized Smith's return, buyouts, and Holland's unwillingness to do a few things:
-He's against mortgaging the future
-He's not going to go out and hunt the giant UFAs (read: Grubauer, Hamilton, etc)
-He's against making a big trade to address roster concerns

We also have other unknowns regarding the organization and Holland himself:
-He loves his Red Wings
-The organization does not subscribe to conventional analytics and will either make unintelligent decisions or risky ones

That said, I think Holland wants to bring back as much of this year's team as possible, or at least the higher-end pieces. Barrie, Koekkoek, Shore, and Smith were all pieces he brought in that worked (or appeared to), and I wouldn't be surprised if he doubles down on them. Larsson and RNH extensions have been floated for a while and I suspect the intention will be to bring both guys back.

Driedger is not my first option for a new goaltender: I think he's incredibly unproven despite success this year and would prefer Ullmark. I think the organization likes Chris better though.

Glendenning and Tatar meet the former Red Wing quota but Luke comes at an overpay in both AAV and term: the lack of an analytics department is going to hamper the organization's understanding of why the bottom-six sucked eggs this year and they'll make a less-than-deal add thinking they've solved the problem. I like Tatar though.

Tippett's disdain for Bear and Holland's desire to bring Barrie back are going to intersect and he'll be traded for a minimal package that helps the team's long-term pipeline. Holland can't get over losing the Athanasiou deal and appears paranoid to not have draft picks. Toronto is going to hop all over Bear's availability in order to drive their tenure on top of the league. It's a disaster waiting to happen and very reminiscent of the Petry trade. Edmonton's probably getting less than half of equivalent value here.

Turris absolutely gets waived but I have a hunch he'd be claimed if it happens: relatively cheap, only one year, GMs will still think he's a bounceback candidate or at least a live body to delay the premature promotion of a prospect.

I think there's a chance Holland goes Ennis > Holloway given that it's rare for Old Dutch to play a guy full-time in the NHL after his D+1 season but if Larkin did, Holloway could as well.

Free Agent Signings

RESERVE LIST		YEARS	CAP HIT
Tullio, Tyler		3	$775,000

RFA	YEARS	CAP HIT
Benson, Tyler	2	$750,000
Shore, Devin	2	$750,000
Yamamoto, Kailer	3	$2,500,000

UFA	YEARS	CAP HIT
Barrie, Tyson	4	$5,500,000
Coleman, Blake	3	$3,500,000
Driedger, Chris	4	$3,750,000
Glendening, Luke	2	$1,750,000
Koekkoek, Slater	2	$1,000,000
Larsson, Adam	4	$3,750,000
Nugent-Hopkins, Ryan	5	$5,500,000
Smith, Mike	1	$1,050,000
Tatar, Tomas	3	$5,000,000

Trades

EDM

SEA

Lagesson, William

EDM

2021 2nd round pick (TOR)

TOR

Bear, Ethan

EDM

2021 7th round pick (TBL)

TBL

Stalock, Alex

EDM

Waivers

ANA

Turris, Kyle

Buyouts

Andrej Sekera: $1,500,000
James Neal: $1,916,667
Mikko Koskinen: $1,500,000

Retained Salary Transactions

Milan Lucic: $750,000 (12.5%)

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2021
2022
2023

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
23	$81,500,000	$78,333,506	$669,339	$1,307,500	$3,166,494

Roster

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Tatar, Tomas $5,000,000$5,000,000 LW, RW UFA - 2	McDavid, Connor $12,500,000$12,500,000 C UFA - 5	Puljujärvi, Jesse $1,175,000$1,175,000 RW UFA - 1
Nugent-Hopkins, Ryan $5,500,000$5,500,000 LW, C UFA - 8	Draisaitl, Leon $8,500,000$8,500,000 C, LW UFA - 4	Yamamoto, Kailer $2,500,000$2,500,000 RW RFA - 1
Holloway, Dylan $925,000$925,000 ($400,000$400K) LW, C RFA - 3		Coleman, Blake $3,500,000$3,500,000 RW, LW UFA - 6
Archibald, Josh $1,500,000$1,500,000 RW, LW UFA - 1	McLeod, Ryan $834,167$834,167 ($57,500$58K) C RFA - 1	Kassian, Zack $3,200,000$3,200,000 RW UFA - 3
	Glendening, Luke $1,750,000$1,750,000 C, RW, LW UFA - 2

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Nurse, Darnell $5,600,000$5,600,000 LD UFA - 1	Barrie, Tyson $5,500,000$5,500,000 RD UFA - 3
	Larsson, Adam $3,750,000$3,750,000 RD UFA - 4
	Bouchard, Evan $863,333$863,333 ($850,000$850K) RD RFA - 2	Driedger, Chris $3,750,000$3,750,000 G UFA - 3
Jones, Caleb $850,000$850,000 LD/RD UFA - 1		Smith, Mike $1,050,000$1,050,000 G UFA - 2
Koekkoek, Slater $1,000,000$1,000,000 LD/RD UFA - 2

Scratches	Injured Reserve (IR)	Long Term IR (LTIR)
Russell, Kris $1,250,000$1,250,000 LD/RD UFA - 1		Klefbom, Oscar $4,167,000$4,167,000 LD M-NTC UFA - 2
Benson, Tyler $750,000$750,000 LW, RW UFA - 1
Shore, Devin $750,000$750,000 LW, C, RW UFA - 2

Special Teams

Power Play 1
Puljujärvi, J.		Draisaitl, L.		Tatar, T.
	Barrie, T.		McDavid, C.

Power Play 2
Yamamoto, K.		McLeod, R.		Coleman, B.
	Bouchard, E.		Nugent-Hopkins, R.

Penalty Kill 1
	Coleman, B.	Glendening, L.
	Nurse, D.	Larsson, A.

Penalty Kill 2
	McLeod, R.	Archibald, J.
	Jones, C.	Koekkoek, S.

May 26, 2021 at 8:48 p.m.

HockeyFan989

wpg

Joined: Dec. 2017

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well my take is Holland is the best thing that happened since McDavid for the Oilers.... he really set the ship straight from the Chiarelli mess, their best years r ahead of them

oilersfan150 and ural740811 liked this.

May 26, 2021 at 8:49 p.m.

SomeonesOffended

FKA Bigtittielarper

Joined: Jun. 2020

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Another year of mcdavid wasted lol I hope Holland doesn’t do that but you sound like you’re onto something

BeterChiarelli and Hockey_Soul liked this.

May 26, 2021 at 8:50 p.m.

NHLfan10506

Joined: May 2019

Posts: 40,912

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New Jersey: [knock knock] we've come for Bear

May 26, 2021 at 8:50 p.m.

NHLfan10506

Joined: May 2019

Posts: 40,912

Likes: 18,622

Good write-up btw...thanks

BeterChiarelli and SomeonesOffended liked this.

May 26, 2021 at 8:56 p.m.

BeterChiarelli

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Edited May 26, 2021 at 9:08 p.m.

Quoting: HockeyFan989

well my take is Holland is the best thing that happened since McDavid for the Oilers.... he really set the ship straight from the Chiarelli mess, their best years r ahead of them

Care to explain how Draisaitl and McDavid winning back-to-back Hart trophies and Smith having a revelation as a 39 year-old counts as "setting the ship straight"?

Most of what the Oilers had/have was here before Holland: the scouts are essentially the same so I don't even consider the Broberg-Lavoie draft to be of any credit to Holland except maybe Broberg > Zegras which is an undeniable loss any day of the week. All I've seen from Holland thus far is two flubbed deadlines (any quality owner would fire their GM if during a historic season they claimed that 'you can't go for it every year'; what the hell would you say your job is at that point?), an anchor contract in Kassian, and through this setup, a long-term issue with the salary cap.

This roster is improved sure, but it's not the best it could be, and the organization as a whole is still 20 years+ behind most of the rest of the league by refusing to invest in anything except old hockey men. Holland refused to get creative with the salary cap this past offseason (I still don't know why wasn't there a Neal buyout last summer: the plan was to play him a year then cut him loose) and failed to address the bottom six when his bets in Kahun and Turris went sideways.

Years burnt from Draisaitl and McDavid's primes are still years burnt regardless of who's in charge.

SomeonesOffended, Hockey_Soul, SevenLeg and 2 others liked this.

May 26, 2021 at 8:58 p.m.

BeterChiarelli

Thread Starter

Ban Price trades

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Quoting: SomeonesOffended

Another year of mcdavid wasted lol I hope Holland doesn’t do that but you sound like you’re onto something

Quoting: NHLfan10506

Good write-up btw...thanks

I hate how predictable this organization is and how Holland can't help but tip his hand at every opportunity. I don't want to be right, I want to be blackout drunk on Whyte Ave celebrating at least ONE Stanley Cup win.

Quoting: NHLfan10506

New Jersey: [knock knock] we've come for Bear

If you can beat that offer go for it. I just think Holland takes the first deal he gets that includes a top-64 pick.

Hockey_Soul liked this.

May 26, 2021 at 9:00 p.m.

Oilers21

Joined: Sep. 2020

Posts: 28

Likes: 4

Not a fan of getting Tatar to play with mcdavid there is a couple better options. Glendening is our only addition on that 4th line then we are going to have the same problem in the playoffs where your 4th line gets 10 minutes of ice time in a game where it goes to 3ots and Holland also isn’t a fan of rookies jumping right in so I doubt we see two rookies on a line this team needs veterans. And that d got worse Jones wasn’t good enough to play these playoffs but now he’s top 4 and after playoffs I’d be hesitant on driedger. I like the signing of Coleman I’d play him on mcdavids line before Tatar tho

May 26, 2021 at 9:08 p.m.

BeterChiarelli

Thread Starter

Ban Price trades

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Quoting: Oilers21

I think most of this is more of an issue of Holland not being able to help himself. Stylistically, I don't think Tatar will be a fit with McDavid but Holland has both a bias towards former Red Wings AND pressure to add another top-six winger. It's a very unfortunate collision in this regard. I suspect Coleman eventually gets the bump up to McDavid's wing or Holloway will.

I disagree regarding Jones to an extent: I think it's telling about how Tippett misused his roster in the playoffs for sure. He ran Jones-Larsson a lot in the regular season and I think there'll be some credit earned by Jones from both the coach and GM that he'll take another step this year. They can't trade everyone and Jones still represents a value contract (even if he's only a third-pairing defender, he's sub-$1M).

Given the obvious mistake in not bringing Benson and/or Marody up this year to give Tippett some more useful options in his bottom-six, I don't think either Holland or Tippett will hesitate to play both Holloway and McLeod, and I don't think keeping them together will be an issue. Both kids are defensively responsible and Coleman is no slouch in his own end. Likewise, the organization thinks that Kassian is a bonafide #3RW: they'll think having him on the 4th line constitutes as depth. Tippett likes Archibald and Holland likes Glendenning. I think that's a very possible 4th line for us next year.

ural740811 liked this.

May 26, 2021 at 9:09 p.m.

Epiczzzz

Joined: May 2021

Posts: 41

Likes: 1

I really hope we dont resign Barrie he is awful on defence and is mainly just a pp quaterback, while we already have dman who could do the job

StonyOil liked this.

May 26, 2021 at 9:10 p.m.

#10

BeterChiarelli

Thread Starter

Ban Price trades

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Quoting: Epiczzzz

I really hope we dont resign Barrie he is awful on defence and is mainly just a pp quaterback, while we already have dman who could do the job

I agree but I don't think Holland can help himself. He's on record of not liking/wanting substantial change. How does he convince himself to not resign one of the most productive defenders in the league if the club blatantly ignores anything resembling advanced analytics?

May 26, 2021 at 9:16 p.m.

#11

Oilers21

Joined: Sep. 2020

Posts: 28

Likes: 4

Quoting: BeterChiarelli

I 100% agree with you I don’t think Holland can help him self and I’m sure you are right that he will bring Tatar and glendening but that would be a mistake in my opinion they aren’t what this team needs if your gonna get a 4th line Centre try and get a guy like getzlaf. But I have to disagree with you on the Jones thing you are correct he played a lot with Larsson but he wasn’t the Jones of 2 years ago this year he was a defensive liability he could make outlet pass got caught in his end far to much I’d rather see a big body there like oleskiak to have shut down pair of him and Larsson.

May 26, 2021 at 9:17 p.m.

#12

HockeyFan989

wpg

Joined: Dec. 2017

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Likes: 1,028

Quoting: BeterChiarelli

Care to explain how Draisaitl and McDavid winning back-to-back Hart trophies and Smith having a revelation as a 39 year-old counts as "setting the ship straight"?

Most of what the Oilers had/have was here before Holland: the scouts are essentially the same so I don't even consider the Broberg-Lavoie draft to be of any credit to Holland except maybe Broberg > Zegras which is an undeniable loss any day of the week. All I've seen from Holland thus far is two flubbed deadlines (any quality owner would fire their AGM if during a historic season they claimed that 'you can't go for it every year'; what the hell would you say your job is at that point?), an anchor contract in Kassian, and through this setup, a long-term issue with the salary cap.

This roster is improved sure, but it's not the best it could be, and the organization as a whole is still 20 years+ behind most of the rest of the league by refusing to invest in anything except old hockey men. Holland refused to get creative with the salary cap this past offseason (I still don't know why wasn't there a Neal buyout last summer: the plan was to play him a year then cut him loose) and failed to address the bottom six when his bets in Kahun and Turris went sideways.

Years burnt from Draisaitl and McDavid's primes are still years burnt regardless of who's in charge.

Oiler don't have the team.... Chiarelli ****ed that up, either way if ure getting through the Jets u rnt winning the cup anyways. GL winning against teams like Vegas or Tampa

Yes u have the best player is the world but he can be shut down.. the Jets proved that

i stand by my comment Holland is the best thing that happened since McDavid for the Oilers, someone who is willing to be patient, trust the process and build the Oilers onto a true contender

oilersfan150 liked this.

May 26, 2021 at 9:22 p.m.

#13

BeterChiarelli

Thread Starter

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Joined: Oct. 2017

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Quoting: Oilers21

Oleksiak is 7 feet tall and nothing else. Whichever team signs him is going to regret him.

That said, if my acknowledging that results in him being an Oiler, it's not my fault

May 26, 2021 at 9:26 p.m.

#14

Oilers21

Joined: Sep. 2020

Posts: 28

Likes: 4

Quoting: BeterChiarelli

Oleksiak is 7 feet tall and nothing else. Whichever team signs him is going to regret him.

That said, if my acknowledging that results in him being an Oiler, it's not my fault

He was coveted at the trade deadline he’s fairly quick for a big fella and plays mean also put up decent points if you sign him for 3mil or under I wouldn’t mind

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May 26, 2021 at 9:30 p.m.

#15

BeterChiarelli

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Quoting: Oilers21

He was coveted at the trade deadline he’s fairly quick for a big fella and plays mean also put up decent points if you sign him for 3mil or under I wouldn’t mind

His rumoured ask is a $4M/4y deal. Knowing how these deals tend to break down, I'm staying away. The compromise - to me at least - smells like $3.5M/3y and that's about a million and a year too much for my tastes.

Until Klefbom actually comes out and says it, the club is going to make moves anticipating his return sometime before the onset of the playoffs. I think the clubs is mostly confident in the group they had this year and if they want to address anything, they'll do so at the deadline if Oscar hasn't come back or retired by that point.

May 26, 2021 at 10:47 p.m.

#16

Bdawwwgy1

CbjSabresDucks

Joined: Apr. 2020

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if he really isnt looking to make big changes he needs to go. you dont just have players of McDrai's calibers and play the waiting game

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May 26, 2021 at 11:14 p.m.

#17

HockeyFan989

wpg

Joined: Dec. 2017

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Quoting: Bdawwwgy1

if he really isnt looking to make big changes he needs to go. you dont just have players of McDrai's calibers and play the waiting game

Chiarelli tried that... look were it got them

May 26, 2021 at 11:24 p.m.

#18

Bdawwwgy1

CbjSabresDucks

Joined: Apr. 2020

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Quoting: HockeyFan989

Chiarelli tried that... look were it got them

chiarelli ws terrible.

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May 26, 2021 at 11:51 p.m.

#19

BeterChiarelli

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Quoting: HockeyFan989

Chiarelli tried that... look were it got them

Chiarelli made big changes but didn't acquire anything of equal value to what he sent out. The Oilers need big changes but they need to win the trade/signing unambiguously. Key difference.

May 27, 2021 at 12:25 a.m.

#20

ural740811

Joined: Jul. 2019

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Why aren't Marody and Skinner signed?

May 27, 2021 at 12:46 a.m.

#21

ural740811

Joined: Jul. 2019

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Bear won't be given anywhere! I'm sure this is our future, despite his terrible pass at the end of the third period of the fourth game, the one who does nothing is not mistaken, this will serve him a useful lesson. Tippett and the Hollands appreciate him.

May 27, 2021 at 12:47 a.m.

#22

Caniac555

Hurricane Waddell

Joined: May 2018

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Why are you suspicious of Ken?

May 27, 2021 at 1:08 a.m.

#23

ural740811

Joined: Jul. 2019

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Barrie will not be signed, I am sure, by the way, by the end of the season, Barrie himself realized that Edmonton's management was not counting on him for the next season and it was noticeable how the spark disappeared in his eyes, he would sign in another organization 6 million for 5 years.
Conclusions from the press conference and some rumors:
Smith 2 million for a year
Larsson 3.5 million for 4 years
Hopkins 6 million for 6 years
Yamamoto 2 million for 2 years
Dridger 3.5 million for 3 years
Tatars 5 million for 2 years
Glendenning 1.5 for 2 years
Benson, Maraudi, Skinner, Shore 0.8 million
Redemption of Neil and Koskinen

May 27, 2021 at 1:10 a.m.

#24

ural740811

Joined: Jul. 2019

Posts: 656

Likes: 59

Quoting: Caniac555

Why are you suspicious of Ken?

Ken Holland pelogin! :-)

May 27, 2021 at 1:11 a.m.

#25

ural740811

Joined: Jul. 2019

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Quoting: ural740811

Ken Holland pelogin! :-)

Ken Holland perelogin! :-)

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