I think Smith will be more along the 1.5 to 2 range for AAV.

That’s a little high on the Larsson deal. 4.5 at most for him.

Coleman will have lots of suitors, he will probably be 3.5 or higher.

You’re also missing a winger, but I assume that’s so you can double shift Connor and Leon

I don’t think smith signs for less than 3 and it’s more about being loyal to a goalie who’s been loyal to the oilers

Larsson same thing as far as loyalty. If Oilers don’t some other team will

Coleman is a bit of a pipe dream but here’s to dreaming

Missing winger... you probably looked while I was editing

Not worth it for us. Would need to be the 1st if you want that VGK 2nd at the bare minimum. Turris does nothing for us

Exatcly this. Turris is a cap dump so he even has negative value

I think Strome would be great there. His size, vision, and secondary scoring option would be great on that line. A $3M top line LWer (as you have placed him) and RFA is worth more than a cap dump and a 3rd. Drop the pick going to EDM and Stan would still likely pass, but it would get the conversation started.

As for goalies. Go for someone other than Mike Smith. He did indeed have his best year in over a decade, but water always finds its level. Expect a worse year from him next year...if anyone signs him. There are a half dozen (likely more) goalies looking for work next year. Freddie probably has the biggest chip on his shoulder in the world right now. Nothing like going from Matthews to McDavid as a huge F you to all the Leafs fans.

Ken Holland already said he’s going to re sign smith. I agree about Strome but I figured thats the reason for the conditional pick becomes a 1st.

The first thing I want to touch on (and it's probably the *smallest* of details but I really want to see Savoie get another year with the Pioneers. Less to see if he's legit or a flash-in-the-pan but more so because he'll get better icetime in their system than with the Condors: Holloway is going to get king minutes but I suspect Woodcroft starts him on the wing at minimum (Holland expects a specific trajectory and might work early on it). Safin regaining some form and the presence of Lavoie, Griffith (who wasn't run much as a pivot this past season iirc), and Maksimov leave little room in the top-six for Savoie to break through. There's also a possibility that Blumel could be California-bound. At Denver, he's getting top-line minutes and top-powerplay minutes guaranteed. No rush to sign Savoie: if you have time, use it.

Your contracts are all over the place and something I'd recommend is digging into other AGM teams in order to better suss out player values. Substantiated rumours, the projections from Evolving-Hockey, and precedent set by past contracts are a much more solid starting point in terms of determining AAV and term than guessing. Others have touched on it, but all of Barrie, Coleman, Driedger, and Perry are underpaid to various degrees while Benn, Larsson, and Smith are overpaid. For reference:

- Coleman is typically penned for around $3.5M/3y
- Barrie's floor appears to be working out to be $5.5M/4y
- Driedger is likely going to land a deal at either $3.5M/3y or close to a $4M/4y: Edmonton's kind of set the precedent for inexperienced goalies getting bank with the Talbot and Koskinen extensions. With this year's goalie market being very much a buyer's market, teams could end up in bidding wars for names like Driedger and Ullmark, who are looking to headline this year's free agent class (expectation is that Grubauer stays put at around $6M/4y)
- Perry could sign for such a low deal but after showing utility this year, it'll probably be a clean million on his deal, possibly more if we're considering taxes etc.
- Benn cannot ask for more than whatever Kulikov gets on his next deal, which is expected to be around $1.5M/1y. This isn't a quality defender and there isn't much he does right with or without the puck.
- Rumours on Larsson at or around $3.75M/4 years are sound and align with some quotes from Lowetide that it could be something around $4M. He's a streaky defender: we've seen years of *bad* hockey from Larsson but moments where he's an absolutely brilliant stay-at-home defender. There's a market rate for guys like that, but it doesn't exceed $4.5M, never mind in the flat cap era.
- Loyalty to Smith shouldn't extend past resigning him at his current AAV of $1.5M. Ideally, Smith is signing a league-minimum contract that is filled to the gills with performance bonuses (he's above the age, take advantage of it). While I recognize that he's an athletic freak of nature, betting on 40 year-old hockey players is always a risky gamble. Betting on goaltenders is voodoo. Smith's at the unfortunate intersection of both. Such a contract will pay him exclusively on merit (I'd even be fine if it was $1M or $1.5M with potential for bonuses) and carries far less risk than if Smith were to become a $3.5M liability. His deal needs to be buriable or easily included in a trade in case he implodes next year. Ignoring that safety net is dangerous.

I'm assuming you're losing Jones to expansion?

I think you're close regarding the Strome trade such that Strome isn't worth a boatload on his own. I'd rather drop the conditions on the picks and drop the VGK 2nd however: if the Oilers are in need of a massive upgrade at any position by next year's deadline, that first becomes our best bargaining chip. Broberg, Bouchard, Holloway, and Lavoie should be considered downright untouchable and part of me is willing to go so far as to add Blumel, Samorukov, and Savoie to that list. Retaining up to $575k on Turris might also help incentivize the Blackhawks as he would no longer count against their cap hit if they in turn bury him. Alternatively, just bury Turris and offer the 2nd and 3rd round picks for Strome.

I'd personally be letting Barrie and Khaira walk. Continuing to block Bouchard makes no sense for the long-term success of either Bouchard's long-term development or the club's success. Allow Bear and Bouchard to take steps forward after their learnings from this season and reap the rewards. I'd prefer Murray over Benn for an extra million and I'd do just about anything to ensure that Shore never plays a game in Oilers silks again. I appreciate the effort he puts in, but I've never seen a player try so hard to accomplish nothing. He's a replacement-level player that gets caved-in whenever he's on the ice. With this construction, McLeod should get the #4C role.