In my opinion, the best negotiating chip that Don Waddell has is that Rod Brind'Amour is the head coach of his team.
Wadell has to maintain as much of the core as he can, while keeping in mind that
1.Martin Necas is due for a contract similar to Trocheck's in one (1) year's time
2. Ryan Suzuki, Seth Jarvis, and possibly even Blake Murray could be ready for the NHL relatively soon
3. Goalies are voodoo
Summary-
-Contract lengths structured in a way to have manageable FA periods in the future
- In a perfect world, GM DW makes some sort of package for Seattle not exactly like, but similar to what I've shown here, including retaining a large portion of Gardiner's salary, at least 1 prospect and at least 1 draft pick, in order to hang onto Brady Skjei. My whole projection hinges on something like this happening. It would certainly be cheaper to buy out Gardiner, but that would not ensure that we hang onto Skjei or Bean.
-Mrazek, Reimer, and Paquette are lost in Free agency. We thank them for their valiant contributions, and bid them good luck. Ned is ready, and we gotta give other goalies in the pipeline some looks. Lorentz performs sufficiently in Paquette's role, and for half of the cost.
-We give Ned a respectable deal, but not a Scott Darling "too long for too much" deal, and leave the door open for a raise in the near future.
-Martinook gives a discount in order to ease the load of hanging onto Dougie & Svech, and later Necas. I'm operating under the assumptions that 90% of our remaining cap space goes towards Necas' next contract, we probably don't pursue Nino in free agency, and if Trocheck wants to stay, any raise will be minimal.
-Svech gets a deal comparable to Barkov's. Everybody can't make Aho money under the current cap.
-Dougie slots in $7.2M. Sure, Dougie's numbers are nearly on par with Carlson's, who makes $8M per season, but Dougie commits nearly 3 TIMES as many penalties as Carlson. If we give Dougie any more than this, we'll have to get rid of a core player to re-sign Necas. Also, it just seems really unfair to our defenders who actually play defense to give Dougie $8M, when Pesce's making $4M and Slavin makes $5.3M. There IS room for him to make $8M operating under these assumptions, but it does complicate things in the Necas/Trocheck re-signing window. Contract only 4 years in length because the cap has to go up at some point, and he can get a raise as soon as that happens with these parameters.
-Brock McGinns dont grow on trees. He will be a target for FA poachers, if he stays he will get a well deserved raise, but I can see other teams tempting him with larger contracts.
Areas of uncertainty-
-Left winger prospects are looking a little sparse
-I've shown Foegele getting a slight raise, but have a hunch the canes may explore other similarly/lower priced options to fill his role
-What to do about Geekie?
He might fit into a potential Seattle package. It would seem wrong to send him back down to the AHL, but there's very little space in his position at the top. Maybe sign him to a small and short deal and let him compete for a spot with Jesper Fast and Foegele at Training camp. Jesper Fast isn't a superstar, but he's been reliable in any role we've put him in this year.
- I'm fairly out of the loop on our depth prospects, and don't really know why I would or wouldn't re-sign someone like Spencer Smallman, so for the sake of not talking out of my [REDACTED] any more than I already have, I left AHL prospects due for renewals mostly untouched.
Solid analysis! I’d look at an experienced backup goalie for Ned just in case of an untimely injury or a sudden cold streak. Bernier or Halak perhaps? Maybe Dubnyk if you think he has gas in the tank still? There’s a few via free agency, or maybe Seattle will poach someone and send him your way rather than a 4th rounder
if they want to dump Gardiner with half retention, it makes zero sense cause they can buy him out and the cap will stand around $1,000,000 per 4 years
OP made a good point in the description though. Buying out Gardiner would be cheaper but then further exposes Bean and Skjei, would they want to keep. Whether or not Seattle would be interested in that is another story (personally, I’m not so sure), but that’s the logic
Dougie isn’t taking a 4 year deal. He’ll get full value and term right now while he’s one of the best defensemen in the league. Why would he take 80% of what he’s worth for the four years that will probably be worth big money?? Makes zero sense. Full term at 9 million or more assuming his agent is at least capable of operating a telephone
And the Gardiner deal doesn’t work the way you want it to. The salary retention would require a trade. Which means Seattle would still get an expansion selection from the Canes. So kiss Bean goodbye as well
This is a cap crunch for Carolina. IF (and this is If) they decide to dump Gardiner, who's still a fantastic offensive defenseman, they CANNOT afford to retain. Just move on from Niederreiter, who's streaky as hell, and replace him in the top 6 with someone like Foegele, or a cheap free agent like Granlund.
OP made a good point in the description though. Buying out Gardiner would be cheaper but then further exposes Bean and Skjei, would they want to keep. Whether or not Seattle would be interested in that is another story (personally, I’m not so sure), but that’s the logic
there are 2 buyout periods. if Canes fail to make a deal with Seattle to dump Gardiner during expansion draft with NO RETENTION or any other team, buy him out during 2nd buyout period or after draft - retaining his salary is pointless and Canes will need cap space and even $800,000 of cap space will make a difference
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