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Pre-expansion and a solid offseason

Created by: BeterChiarelli
Team: 2021-22 Edmonton Oilers
Initial Creation Date: May 29, 2021
Published: May 29, 2021
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
Protect:
7F: Archibald, Draisaitl, McDavid, Nugent-Hopkins, Puljujarvi, Shore, Yamamoto
3D: Bear, Klefbom, Nurse
1G: Smith (signs extension before draft)

2021 NHL Draft:
#22: (G) Sebastian Cossa (Edmonton, WHL)
#70 (via DET): (RW) Olivier Nadeau (Shawinigan, QMJHL)

Two small pre-draft moves reorganize excess assets from the Oilers to organizations that would better utilize Benson and Jones in exchange for futures and pipeline fuel. Westerholm trade-and-sign needs to happen soon as his rights expire Tuesday.

Signings are more or less common sense. My anticipation is that Holland gets outbid on Ullmark and is hesitant to buy big on Driedger (the man notoriously loves old goalies, likely doesn't trust young FA ones much). Andersen is thus this year's buy-low candidate. If Smith maintains form and/or Andy rediscovers his, it's a considerable duo for the Oilers moving forward. I suspect Smith's deal is laden with performance bonuses: a low AAV helps the team as a whole and the potential for an extra 50k for every x number of wins, playoff berth, playoff performances, and how far they go is probably fair for both sides.

Killorn for somewhere in the ballpark of a 3rd is fair value but I feel it's too much for Palat (term mostly). I found a neat prospect in the Lightning's system that they may be willing to part with and in order to round out the deal look to offer two cap-friendly (roll credits) pieces in Marody and Stalock, who likely total a combined $1.5M. Marody is the exact kind of player that would thrive on the Lightning (good hockey IQ, leading AHL scorer, etc) while Palat is the immediate punch up front Edmonton wants.
Free Agent Signings
RESERVE LISTYEARSCAP HIT
3$925,000
3$775,000
3$775,000
3$925,000
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
2$750,000
2$850,000
3$2,500,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
1$2,000,000
3$3,500,000
1$2,000,000
2$3,000,000
4$3,750,000
2$3,000,000
5$5,500,000
1$1,500,000
Trades
1.
EDM
  1. Westerlund, Filip [Reserve List]
ARI
  1. Benson, Tyler [RFA Rights]
2.
EDM
  1. O'Reilly, Ryan [Reserve List]
  2. 2021 3rd round pick (DET)
3.
4.
EDM
TBL
  1. Marody, Cooper [RFA Rights]
  2. Stalock, Alex
  3. 2022 3rd round pick (EDM)
5.
EDM
  1. 2022 7th round pick (STL)
PHI
  1. Koskinen, Mikko ($2,250,000 retained)
Buyouts
Retained Salary Transactions
Buried
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2021
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the DET
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the PIT
Logo of the EDM
2022
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the STL
2023
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
23$81,500,000$79,583,506$669,339$1,307,500$1,916,494

Roster

Left WingCentreRight Wing
$3,500,000$3,500,000
RW, LW
UFA - 6
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$12,500,000$12,500,000
C
UFA - 5
Logo of the Tampa Bay Lightning
$5,300,000$5,300,000
LW, RW
M-NTC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$5,500,000$5,500,000
LW, C
UFA - 8
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$8,500,000$8,500,000
C, LW
UFA - 4
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$1,175,000$1,175,000
RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$400,000$400K)
LW, C
RFA - 3
$3,000,000$3,000,000
C, LW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$2,500,000$2,500,000
RW
RFA - 1
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$1,500,000$1,500,000
RW, LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$834,167$834,167 (Performance Bonus$57,500$58K)
C
RFA - 1
$2,000,000$2,000,000
C, RW, LW
UFA - 2
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$5,600,000$5,600,000
LD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$2,000,000$2,000,000
RD
UFA - 1
$3,000,000$3,000,000
LD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$863,333$863,333 (Performance Bonus$850,000$850K)
RD
RFA - 2
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$825,000$825,000
LD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$3,750,000$3,750,000
RD
UFA - 4
$2,000,000$2,000,000
G
UFA - 2
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$1,500,000$1,500,000
G
UFA - 2
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$3,200,000$3,200,000
RW
UFA - 3
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$4,167,000$4,167,000
LD
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$1,250,000$1,250,000
LD/RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$750,000$750,000
LW, C, RW
UFA - 2

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May 29, 2021 at 4:54 p.m.
#1
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Tampa would want to do that trade Pre expansion no? If so Palat would need protecting.
And protecting Shore who had a sub 40% CF an GF an trading benson is wild to me
May 29, 2021 at 4:56 p.m.
#2
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Murray and Coleman are literally perfect pieces on this team. Really hope they pursue those guys in FA. You might not get all 5 of these FAs, but I do like their f its. I am doubtful that Freddie goes the Barrie route with the contract though. Even though he is awful, I still expect somebody to give him some money.

Really good draft analysis.

Would Palat waive his NTC? Would Tampa even want to move Palat unless its worst case?


Still, one of the most realistic and well done Oilers builds I've seen in a while
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May 29, 2021 at 4:58 p.m.
#3
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Quoting: PerpetuallySad
Tampa would want to do that trade Pre expansion no? If so Palat would need protecting.
And protecting Shore who had a sub 40% CF an GF an trading benson is wild to me


The Benson trade is value-for-value. I've liked Westerlund for a while. If by chance Edmonton can get Westerlund for free, I still think Benson is a piece that should be moved for either draft capital or another prospect, preferably a center. Shore's a player Holland brought in and Tippett likes: they probably think the bet paid off and the alternative is protecting Kassian. Both are garbage options. It's an absolute consequence of having to protect 7 forwards.

I'm not 100% on the Tampa expansion plans so maybe? it would work for both clubs I guess. I've just been operating under the assumption that there's a Johnson+++ trade in the works to protect Foote and keep a little marketability in the works for the Kraken.
May 29, 2021 at 5:02 p.m.
#4
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Quoting: Wqrrior
Murray and Coleman are literally perfect pieces on this team. Really hope they pursue those guys in FA. You might not get all 5 of these FAs, but I do like their f its. I am doubtful that Freddie goes the Barrie route with the contract though. Even though he is awful, I still expect somebody to give him some money.

Really good draft analysis.

Would Palat waive his NTC? Would Tampa even want to move Palat unless its worst case?


Still, one of the most realistic and well done Oilers builds I've seen in a while


Ever since Edmonton was eliminated I've been able to work on my draft list. I was two picks off in the top-20 from last year so I like to think I have half an idea as to what I'm doing haha. I'll probably publish my first round later today, second and third rounds hopefully before Friday. Thanks for the feedback!

Andersen's a coin-flip, but I have extra cash on hand. I'd personally do up to $3M.

I think Palat *might* waive given that playing beside McDavid ensures his next paycheck has many zeros behind it. Edmonton might feel like Siberia some nights but if Holland can lay out his offseason plan for Ondrej, I don't see why he wouldn't waive. He's already won, is the odd man out in Tampa (they absolutely value Killorn more), and Edmonton has a clear run to the division finals minimum. If there was term attached I don't think it happens but for a year? I can't see him saying no.
May 29, 2021 at 5:04 p.m.
#5
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Quoting: BeterChiarelli
The Benson trade is value-for-value. I've liked Westerlund for a while. If by chance Edmonton can get Westerlund for free, I still think Benson is a piece that should be moved for either draft capital or another prospect, preferably a center. Shore's a player Holland brought in and Tippett likes: they probably think the bet paid off and the alternative is protecting Kassian. Both are garbage options. It's an absolute consequence of having to protect 7 forwards.

I'm not 100% on the Tampa expansion plans so maybe? it would work for both clubs I guess. I've just been operating under the assumption that there's a Johnson+++ trade in the works to protect Foote and keep a little marketability in the works for the Kraken.


I think you’re undercutting benson a lot. And trading him for a 22year old playing in the Sweden’s second league seems odd. Our forward prospects are thin and you’re trading an NHL ready one for a project piece or draft capital? Why
May 29, 2021 at 5:34 p.m.
#6
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You can have O'Riley but I don't see Detroit giving up a 3rd for Jones.
May 29, 2021 at 5:45 p.m.
#7
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Quoting: aedoran
You can have O'Riley but I don't see Detroit giving up a 3rd for Jones.


If this trade is pre-expansion draft like the title suggests, then Detoit would have to protect Jones too. Two of Stetcher, Cholowski, and Lindstrom would be on the block. Hard pass.
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May 29, 2021 at 5:47 p.m.
#8
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Quoting: PerpetuallySad
I think you’re undercutting benson a lot. And trading him for a 22year old playing in the Sweden’s second league seems odd. Our forward prospects are thin and you’re trading an NHL ready one for a project piece or draft capital? Why


I don't see Benson as anything more than a fourth-line LW, albeit a pretty good one. In terms of NHLe:

Holloway - 42.7 points
Benson - 34.776 points
Blumel - 29.788 points
Savoie - 23.382 points

Benson is not going to put those numbers up without equivalent-calibre linemates: he lacks the footspeed and physicality to justify placement that would usurp either Coleman or Nugent-Hopkins on this AGM. Given his age, we're looking at a close-to-peak Tyler Benson. This has more to do with his injury history than anything, but with the low ceiling, injury history, and lack of loyalty from the current management, I don't see why Holland would keep him nor lose him for nothing.

I think looking at Westerlund in a vacuum isn't capturing the entire picture: defensemen develop slower, players migrated en-masse to the European leagues, and Timra was relegated to the Allsvenskan two season ago. They played well enough this year to make it back into the SHL. As a defenceman, I'm not expecting 50+ points in a league (or league pyramid) that notoriously refuses to give out secondary assists. The jump his +/- saw (as flawed as it is) shows phenomenal year-over-year growth: he maintained his production but completely cleaned up his defensive act. Very notable. I think his intention is to test North America this upcoming season and by my eyes is likely going to have a higher ceiling than Berglund. Having Kemp, Kesselring, and Westerlund in the AHL is not a bad trio of defenders to have bubbling under, especially when Bear and Bouchard already have the long-term top positions locked up.

I would prefer Holloway in the AHL but I don't think Holland is going to be super patient with him: he has the ability, frame, and strength to handle the NHL and I think they'll have him through camp. If the money is awful, I can live with not signing Glendenning and keeping Benson on to play with McLeod and Archibald on the fourth line, but as we can see through Holland's roster construction last year and Tippett's deployment, they desperately want viable penalty killers in their bottom six, and we haven't seen that from Benson at the NHL level, even when he was called up.
May 29, 2021 at 6:18 p.m.
#9
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Quoting: HypotheticalImpossibility
If this trade is pre-expansion draft like the title suggests, then Detoit would have to protect Jones too. Two of Stetcher, Cholowski, and Lindstrom would be on the block. Hard pass.


Losing Lindstrom for Jones is incredibly worthwhile. Stetcher is a very replaceable piece. I'd go ahead and protect Cholowski+Jones.

Given that the Red Wings were a bad team again, I'll look at their relative analytics instead of their counts/rates:

Stetcher (all stats 5v5 Rel)
CF% - 3rd
FF% - 4th
SF% - 6th
GF% - 8th
xGF% - 3rd
xSC% - 2nd
HDCF% - 2nd
HDGF% - 5th
TOI - 4th

To me, I see Stetcher as a lower-end top-4 defender that isn't winning or losing the shooting battle. He's getting sunk in terms of getting scored on but shouldn't be (suspect it's a team construction issue). Likely a really, really good name to have on your bottom pair, but guys like these are quite literally a dime-per-dozen every free agency.

Lindstrom (all stats 5v5 Rel)
CF% - 10th
FF% - 9th
SF% - 10th
GF% - 5th
xGF% - 5th
xSC% - 4th
HDCF% - 8th
HDGF% - 7th
TOI - 9th

Lindstrom looks like a victim of shellshock and is preventing goals as anticipated, but it cannot be overstated how poorly the Red Wings get out-shot and out-chanced in the 9ish minutes he plays per night. Either he's not ready for the NHL or he merely isn't an NHL player: why would Seattle be interested in taking this meanial of a piece?

Cholowski (all stats 5v5 Rel)
CF% - 5th
FF% - 6th
SF% - 5th
GF% - 3rd
xGF% - 9th
xSC% - 10th
HDCF% - 10th
HDGF% - 8th
TOI - 8th

Cholowski's numbers just look raw and with a bit of PDO: he's neither winning or losing the shooting battle, overachieving in terms of GF%, but getting eaten alive in the slot. Given the low TOI, that to me just suggests he's not ready or requires a stronger partner. He has pedigree but is still looking to take that next step. Stetcher is clearly the best defender of this trio, but Cholowski's RFA status has more inherent value.

Jones (all stats 5v5 Rel)
CF% - 6th
FF% - 4th
SF% - 5th
GF% - 8rd
xGF% - 4th
xSC% - 7th
HDCF% - 5th
HDGF% - 8th
TOI - 6th

I want to preface Jones's GF% number by observing his .960 PDO: Caleb had a bad year driven by bad luck and bad coaching decisions. His expected GF% confirms this, he should have been comfortably behind Bear and Nurse in terms of the scoring battle. I fail to understand how and why Kris Russell played more than Jones. If the 4% PDO difference is re-established into his shooting percentage (+3%) and his on-ice sv% (+1%), he'd have had the same kind of on-ice effectiveness as Bear and Larsson. Gaffes aside, Bear is the kind of defenceman *every* team wants and Larsson is reliable quality. Jones was Edmonton's 4th best defender most nights, he just had bad luck.

In my eyes, Jones next year outright replaces Stetcher. He's cheap, comes with club control, and there currently isn't a left defender in the Red Wings' system that compares to Jones. We can expect Jones to take a step forward as we likewise expect from Cholowski. Edmonton's moving him here out of necessity, not desire. I'd much rather hang onto him, as I think his style encapsulates the modern top-4 defender to a tee.

Quoting: aedoran
You can have O'Riley but I don't see Detroit giving up a 3rd for Jones.


That seems incredibly misguided given that he's likely worth about a second round pick. Detroit's getting him at a discount given that Edmonton risks losing him for nothing. Analysis above.
May 29, 2021 at 10:22 p.m.
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Quoting: BeterChiarelli
Losing Lindstrom for Jones is incredibly worthwhile. Stetcher is a very replaceable piece. I'd go ahead and protect Cholowski+Jones.

Given that the Red Wings were a bad team again, I'll look at their relative analytics instead of their counts/rates:

Stetcher (all stats 5v5 Rel)
CF% - 3rd
FF% - 4th
SF% - 6th
GF% - 8th
xGF% - 3rd
xSC% - 2nd
HDCF% - 2nd
HDGF% - 5th
TOI - 4th

To me, I see Stetcher as a lower-end top-4 defender that isn't winning or losing the shooting battle. He's getting sunk in terms of getting scored on but shouldn't be (suspect it's a team construction issue). Likely a really, really good name to have on your bottom pair, but guys like these are quite literally a dime-per-dozen every free agency.

Lindstrom (all stats 5v5 Rel)
CF% - 10th
FF% - 9th
SF% - 10th
GF% - 5th
xGF% - 5th
xSC% - 4th
HDCF% - 8th
HDGF% - 7th
TOI - 9th

Lindstrom looks like a victim of shellshock and is preventing goals as anticipated, but it cannot be overstated how poorly the Red Wings get out-shot and out-chanced in the 9ish minutes he plays per night. Either he's not ready for the NHL or he merely isn't an NHL player: why would Seattle be interested in taking this meanial of a piece?

Cholowski (all stats 5v5 Rel)
CF% - 5th
FF% - 6th
SF% - 5th
GF% - 3rd
xGF% - 9th
xSC% - 10th
HDCF% - 10th
HDGF% - 8th
TOI - 8th

Cholowski's numbers just look raw and with a bit of PDO: he's neither winning or losing the shooting battle, overachieving in terms of GF%, but getting eaten alive in the slot. Given the low TOI, that to me just suggests he's not ready or requires a stronger partner. He has pedigree but is still looking to take that next step. Stetcher is clearly the best defender of this trio, but Cholowski's RFA status has more inherent value.

Jones (all stats 5v5 Rel)
CF% - 6th
FF% - 4th
SF% - 5th
GF% - 8rd
xGF% - 4th
xSC% - 7th
HDCF% - 5th
HDGF% - 8th
TOI - 6th

I want to preface Jones's GF% number by observing his .960 PDO: Caleb had a bad year driven by bad luck and bad coaching decisions. His expected GF% confirms this, he should have been comfortably behind Bear and Nurse in terms of the scoring battle. I fail to understand how and why Kris Russell played more than Jones. If the 4% PDO difference is re-established into his shooting percentage (+3%) and his on-ice sv% (+1%), he'd have had the same kind of on-ice effectiveness as Bear and Larsson. Gaffes aside, Bear is the kind of defenceman *every* team wants and Larsson is reliable quality. Jones was Edmonton's 4th best defender most nights, he just had bad luck.

In my eyes, Jones next year outright replaces Stetcher. He's cheap, comes with club control, and there currently isn't a left defender in the Red Wings' system that compares to Jones. We can expect Jones to take a step forward as we likewise expect from Cholowski. Edmonton's moving him here out of necessity, not desire. I'd much rather hang onto him, as I think his style encapsulates the modern top-4 defender to a tee.



That seems incredibly misguided given that he's likely worth about a second round pick. Detroit's getting him at a discount given that Edmonton risks losing him for nothing. Analysis above.


You do realize hockey is game that people play and not just a bunch of numbers on a computer?

Lindstrom look shell shocked now is that what the numbers say or did you actually see him play?

Lindstrom was drafted in 2017 and Jones was drafted in 2015. This was Jones first full season in the NHL. It took Jones 3 seasons to get called up where it took only 1 season for Lindstrom to get called up. The 33 games Jones played this season is 4 more games than Lindstrom has played in his career. So I don't know if anything Lindstrom is ahead of where Jones was at that point of his career.

Where are you getting your data I'd like to see it?
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May 29, 2021 at 11:08 p.m.
#11
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Quoting: aedoran
You do realize hockey is game that people play and not just a bunch of numbers on a computer?

Lindstrom look shell shocked now is that what the numbers say or did you actually see him play?

Lindstrom was drafted in 2017 and Jones was drafted in 2015. This was Jones first full season in the NHL. It took Jones 3 seasons to get called up where it took only 1 season for Lindstrom to get called up. The 33 games Jones played this season is 4 more games than Lindstrom has played in his career. So I don't know if anything Lindstrom is ahead of where Jones was at that point of his career.

Where are you getting your data I'd like to see it?


I don't watch Red Wings games. The numbers are all I have to go by, and quite honestly when the numbers are that damning, the eye test is going to confirm the exact same thing.

All numbers are from NaturalStatTrick (https://www.naturalstattrick.com/). All I did was filter for Red Wings defencemen and sort by relative: if you sort by rates or counts nobody on the Red Wings looks good, the team stinks. Looking at their relative rates was about as fair as I could have been. I don't have an agenda here, I'm simply looking at the data - the only piece of the puzzle I have available to me - and inferring what I'm seeing.

Jones went into this season red-hot, but like the entire team did, stunk over the course of the first dozen games. Jones has established himself as a top-four guy. Lindstrom is clearly too green still and needed time in the AHL. Was it a contract thing that kept him from being sent down?
May 29, 2021 at 11:35 p.m.
#12
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I'm glad to see you liked my idea of acquiring Ondrej Palat even if you excoriated my Bear-for-Crouse trade.
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