Quoting: Chopper02
Islanders were in a bind and trading Toews made the most sense. Again, he had 2 seasons under his belt and was older when dealt. His ceiling is not as high as Dunn's is right now which is something else you pay for when trading a young piece unless there is something seriously wrong with that player (see Yakupov or Fabbri). Toews was the easiest player to move because of his RFA status plus a cap strapped team. This hurts value whether you like it or not and a team like Colorado can come in and take him for less. If there was a better offer on the table for Toews, they would have gotten more but had to move a piece who wasn't signed. Again, Pelech was fine but he wasn't anything like he was this year. A year can make a difference, two years can be even bigger difference. Dunn is worth a 1st just like Toews was, but circumstances played into the decision. Blues could leave Krug/Faulk exposed (it would be Krug) and not think twice, that's not a big deal.
But let's look at this from Detroit's perspective, can they get a guy at 22nd overall that could be at or better than Dunn's level in 2 to 3 years? The answer is probably not and a 24 year old defenseman with a ton of room to grow with a young team who can already put up 20+ points and QB a power play is very helpful for that team.
So you have to look at the team that is trading for that player. Dunn is better than the rest of Detroit's LD whereas Toews was not better than Girard and also likely won't be part of their long term plans with Byram coming up. There are variables that play into decisions of teams and Detroit (or many other young teams) have more reason to trade a first for Dunn than a competitive team for Toews who again had one solid season and one really good season. Avalanche wasn't sure if Toews would be better than Graves or Girard so why trade two seconds to a cap strapped team?
I wouldn’t say Dunn has a higher ceiling than Toews. We’re talking about Toews who by all accounts is a top pairing defensemen. We keep going back and forth, like I said Dunn isn’t chopped liver but I’m not paying a premium for theoretical potential when he hasn’t forced his way up the lineup in STL. What makes you think Toews wasn’t on par or better than Girard? He played more EV and looked really good with Girard and Makar as pairings. I don’t think anyone thought Graves was even remotely close to Toews during that trade and if they were they probably used +/- as justification so I’ll leave that argument be. Pelech analytically was great before even this year but again some of that spotlight went to Toews so yeah he’s going to get more “mainstream”. We could also say Ghostbear or Gardiner would be Detroit’s best LD and they cleared waivers, why not get addition assets to take their cap on and they’re both decent PP QBs.
There’s a good amount of talent that could be had at 22 OVR compared to those mid-late seconds. Guys like Lambos, Sillinger, Svechkov, Chibrikov, and Rosen and if they’re not then someone fell even further. I’m not sure what 2-3 years has to do with it considering Detroit is a way off but defensively if a guy like Lambos is even close to that pick I’d wager he’d be a great addition to Detroit.
Quoting: Chopper02
At the end of the day, it depends on what a team is willing to pay for. Unfortunately for the Blues, there's a tale of two Vince Dunn's. Dunn has a higher ceiling and his second half of this year showed what he can do.
I think the question of "what is he worth versus what will he get" is a legitimate one and don't dispute that. For me personally, I'd rather go after an exempt prospect who shows promise and a 2nd. More specifically, I would love Bode Wilde and a 2nd from Islanders because in my opinion that is worth more than what the 22nd pick will likely be this year.
So what prospect + second from Detroit?