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Players who are the least likely to live up to their contracts

Created by: SevenLeg
Team: 2021-22 Custom Team
Initial Creation Date: Jul. 2, 2021
Published: Jul. 3, 2021
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
Per Dom Dom Luszczyszyn model
Only including players with at least 2 years left
No goalies

Players with less than 20% :

Tyler Seguin (DAL) - 18.8%
Joel Edmundson (MTL) - 18.2%
Esa Lindell (DAL) - 16.9%
Jordan Staal (CAR) - 16.8%
Christopher Tanev (CGY) - 15.5%
Logan Couture (SJS) - 13.7%
Evgeny Kuznetsov (WSH) - 13.2%
Erik Karlsson (SJS) - 12.3%
Jonathan Drouin (MTL) - 11.4%
Zach Parise (MIN) - 11.3%
Jamie Benn (DAL) - 11.2%
Erik Johnson (COL) - 10.9%
Kevin Hayes (PHI) - 10.9%
Joshua Morrissey (WPG) - 9.7%
Nicklas Backstrom (WSH) - 9.6%
Michael Matheson (PIT) - 8.5%
Anze Kopitar (LAK) - 8.0%
Justin Faulk (STL) - 6.9%
Jacob Trouba (NYR) - 6.3%
Tyler Myers (VAN) - 5.9%
James Neal (EDM) - 5.4%
Oliver Ekman-Larsson (ARI) - 5.2%
Brady Skjei (CAR) - 5.0%
Duncan Keith (CHI) - 4.9%
Kyle Okposo (BUF) - 3.8%
Ryan Johansen (NSH) - 2.9%
Milan Lucic (CGY) - 2.7%
Nikita Zaitsev (OTT) - 2.6%
Jeff Skinner (BUF) - 1.9%
Marc-Édouard Vlasic (SJS) - 0.5%
Drew Doughty (LAK) - 0.4%
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
31$81,500,000$187,244,891$0$750,000-$105,744,891
Left WingCentreRight Wing
Logo of the Calgary Flames
$5,250,000$5,250,000
LW, RW
M-NTC, NMC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$5,500,000$5,500,000
LW, RW
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Carolina Hurricanes
$6,000,000$6,000,000
C, LW
NMC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Philadelphia Flyers
$3,571,429$3,571,429
C
NMC
UFA - 5
Logo of the Minnesota Wild
$750,000$750,000 (Performance Bonus$750,000$750K)
LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Nashville Predators
$4,000,000$4,000,000
C, RW
UFA - 4
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$750,000$750,000
RW, LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Dallas Stars
$9,500,000$9,500,000
LW, C
NMC
UFA - 4
Logo of the Washington Capitals
$3,900,000$3,900,000
C
M-NTC
UFA - 4
Logo of the Buffalo Sabres
$6,000,000$6,000,000
RW
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Buffalo Sabres
$9,000,000$9,000,000
LW, RW
NMC
UFA - 6
Logo of the Washington Capitals
$9,200,000$9,200,000
C
NMC
UFA - 4
Logo of the Dallas Stars
$9,850,000$9,850,000
C, RW
NMC
UFA - 6
Logo of the Los Angeles Kings
$10,000,000$10,000,000
C
M-NTC
UFA - 3
Logo of the San Jose Sharks
$8,000,000$8,000,000
C
M-NTC
UFA - 6
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$6,000,000$6,000,000
RD
M-NTC, NMC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Calgary Flames
$1,125,000$1,125,000
RD
M-NTC
UFA - 3
Logo of the Pittsburgh Penguins
$4,875,000$4,875,000
LD
M-NTC
UFA - 5
Logo of the St. Louis Blues
$6,500,000$6,500,000
RD
NTC
UFA - 6
Logo of the Carolina Hurricanes
$5,250,000$5,250,000
LD
M-NTC
UFA - 3
Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
$6,000,000$6,000,000
RD
NTC
UFA - 3
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$875,000$875,000
LD/RD
M-NTC
UFA - 3
Logo of the New York Rangers
$8,000,000$8,000,000
RD
NMC
UFA - 5
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$6,250,000$6,250,000
LD
UFA - 7
Logo of the Ottawa Senators
$4,500,000$4,500,000
RD
M-NTC
UFA - 3
Logo of the Dallas Stars
$5,800,000$5,800,000
LD
NMC
UFA - 4
Logo of the Los Angeles Kings
$11,000,000$11,000,000
RD
NMC
UFA - 6
Logo of the Arizona Coyotes
$7,260,000$7,260,000
LD
NMC
UFA - 6
Logo of the San Jose Sharks
$10,000,000$10,000,000
RD
NMC
UFA - 6
Logo of the Chicago Blackhawks
$5,538,462$5,538,462
LD
NMC
UFA - 2
Logo of the San Jose Sharks
$7,000,000$7,000,000
LD/RD
NMC
UFA - 5

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Jul. 3, 2021 at 10:52 a.m.
#1
CHI NYI
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Wow no Islanders grin
Jul. 3, 2021 at 11:00 a.m.
#2
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Quoting: ForsbergForVezina
Wow no Islanders grin


Ladd would be there but they didn't consider him as an "active player". Pageau barely missed (20.3%) and Leddy and Boychuk would be in if they had more than a year left
Jul. 3, 2021 at 11:03 a.m.
#3
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I'm shocked that Anze Kopitar is rated so low. I guess being a team's leading scorer and still one of the premier defensive centers in the League doesn't count for much.

I predict he performs very well in the next two seasons, just like Dustin Borown, whose demise was widely predicted
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Jul. 3, 2021 at 11:04 a.m.
#4
Smythe.over.Hart
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Not sure I agree with Lindell, Kopitar, Morrissey, or Tanev.
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Jul. 3, 2021 at 11:21 a.m.
#5
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Quoting: OldNYIfan
I'm shocked that Anze Kopitar is rated so low. I guess being a team's leading scorer and still one of the premier defensive centers in the League doesn't count for much.

I predict he performs very well in the next two seasons, just like Dustin Borown, whose demise was widely predicted


To be "worth it" he has to be $10M in good in each year. I'd argue he's not even $10M good right now, let alone as he ages. He's earned that contract, no doubt, but it's still way over his market value at the moment.
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Jul. 3, 2021 at 11:26 a.m.
#6
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Wheres bob???????
Jul. 3, 2021 at 11:27 a.m.
#7
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Quoting: faulkmydzingel
Not sure I agree with Lindell, Kopitar, Morrissey, or Tanev.


Kopitar: To be "worth it" he has to be $10M in good in each year. I'd argue he's not even $10M good right now, let alone as he ages. He's earned that contract, no doubt, but it's still way over his market value at the moment.

Lindell: He's never been worth $5.8M at his best. They banked on him to improve and he happened to never be worth it.

Morrissey: Same as Lindell, while he had good season when signed to his bridge-deal, he's never been worth the $6.25M he was signed to after.

Tanev: Those projections are from last season and they're usually remade after every free agency. Tanev was coming off a steady decline with Vancouver. He had a fantastic season with Calgary, but I guess it's too early to bounce him from 15.5% to over 20.0% since who knows if he'll sustain this pace.
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Jul. 3, 2021 at 11:27 a.m.
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Quoting: Islesforthecup
Wheres bob???????


No goalies
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Jul. 3, 2021 at 11:27 a.m.
#9
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Quoting: SevenLeg
Ladd would be there but they didn't consider him as an "active player". Pageau barely missed (20.3%) and Leddy and Boychuk would be in if they had more than a year left


Thats an embarassment to this model that jgps so low.
Jul. 3, 2021 at 11:27 a.m.
#10
Once a Kings Fan Too
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Quoting: SevenLeg
To be "worth it" he has to be $10M in good in each year. I'd argue he's not even $10M good right now, let alone as he ages. He's earned that contract, no doubt, but it's still way over his market value at the moment.


Then I don't think that the judging standards are fair. He shouldn't have to be $10 million good each year; some decline via aging was built into his contract. He should only have to be $8, $7 and $7 million good in his last three years.
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Jul. 3, 2021 at 11:29 a.m.
#11
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Quoting: Islesforthecup
Wheres bob???????


0% already not living up to the contract. They should knock a zero off his contract based on his numbers since moving to FLA
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Jul. 3, 2021 at 11:33 a.m.
#12
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Quoting: OldNYIfan
Then I don't think that the judging standards are fair. He shouldn't have to be $10 million good each year; some decline via aging was built into his contract. He should only have to be $8, $7 and $7 million good in his last three years.


Why wouldn't it be fair? I'm not saying the model is perfect, but it's the same for everyone. He should provide $30M for the next three years and yet he is projected to provide $18.75M. It's like saying Ryan Getzlaf was worth his contract this year.
Jul. 3, 2021 at 11:37 a.m.
#13
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Quoting: Islesforthecup
Thats an embarassment to this model that jgps so low.


You're optimistic if you think Pageau will be worth $5M during the next 5 years
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Jul. 3, 2021 at 11:38 a.m.
#14
Smythe.over.Hart
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Quoting: SevenLeg
Why wouldn't it be fair? I'm not saying the model is perfect, but it's the same for everyone. He should provide $30M for the next three years and yet he is projected to provide $18.75M. It's like saying Ryan Getzlaf was worth his contract this year.


Kopitar is still an elite player though. He is John Tavares just a couple years older. Still providing offensive production at a high level, a complete defensive player, face off champion, and great leader. Not sure what more we can ask from him.
Jul. 3, 2021 at 11:39 a.m.
#15
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Quoting: SevenLeg
You're optimistic if you think Pageau will be worth $5M during the next 5 years


Do i think its 80%? No. But 20%? Also no. Probably somewhere in the middle.
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Jul. 3, 2021 at 11:39 a.m.
#16
Smythe.over.Hart
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Quoting: SevenLeg
You're optimistic if you think Pageau will be worth $5M during the next 5 years


I personally struggle to see why he is worth it now. But that’s a different story.
Jul. 3, 2021 at 11:39 a.m.
#17
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Quoting: faulkmydzingel
Kopitar is still an elite player though. He is John Tavares just a couple years older. Still providing offensive production at a high level, a complete defensive player, face off champion, and great leader. Not sure what more we can ask from him.


He's good and I've never said the opposite though. Saying someone is not worth their contract is not a knock on the player.
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Jul. 3, 2021 at 11:41 a.m.
#18
Smythe.over.Hart
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Quoting: SevenLeg
He's good and I've never said the opposite though. Saying someone is not worth their contract is not a knock on the player.


Fair enough.
Jul. 3, 2021 at 11:43 a.m.
#19
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Quoting: SevenLeg
Why wouldn't it be fair? I'm not saying the model is perfect, but it's the same for everyone. He should provide $30M for the next three years and yet he is projected to provide $18.75M. It's like saying Ryan Getzlaf was worth his contract this year.


Because you should be measuring the value of his contract THIS YEAR, not over the course of its term.

Question 1: What if Kopitar vastly exceeded his contract in previous years?

Question 2: What if Kopitar exceeds the value of his contract this year and next, but is injured and produces nothing in his final year?

I'm not arguing with you; I just think that the methodology, as far as I understand it (which is two inches), seems flawed. Two 10-million-dollar guys should be judge on different standards when one is actually making $8 million and one is actually making $11 million.

By the way, where is alltime-stiff Matt Duchene on this list? He had 13 points in 34 games for a playoff team while being expected to play on their first line. Kopitar had 50 points and played in all 56 games this year, which is almost exactly his production from the prior season.
Jul. 3, 2021 at 11:46 a.m.
#20
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Some of these guys like Backstrom, Kopitar have already earned the value of their contracts
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Jul. 3, 2021 at 12:05 p.m.
#21
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Quoting: OldNYIfan
Because you should be measuring the value of his contract THIS YEAR, not over the course of its term.

Question 1: What if Kopitar vastly exceeded his contract in previous years?

Question 2: What if Kopitar exceeds the value of his contract this year and next, but is injured and produces nothing in his final year?

I'm not arguing with you; I just think that the methodology, as far as I understand it (which is two inches), seems flawed. Two 10-million-dollar guys should be judge on different standards when one is actually making $8 million and one is actually making $11 million.

By the way, where is alltime-stiff Matt Duchene on this list? He had 13 points in 34 games for a playoff team while being expected to play on their first line. Kopitar had 50 points and played in all 56 games this year, which is almost exactly his production from the prior season.


Matt Duchene is going to be there once this year's update is out
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Jul. 3, 2021 at 12:12 p.m.
#22
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Quoting: faulkmydzingel
I personally struggle to see why he is worth it now. But that’s a different story.


Is yanni gourde worth his contract?
Jul. 3, 2021 at 2:25 p.m.
#23
mokumboi
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The fact that Dom actually gives Karlsson above 12% is nooooooot a good advertisment for his model. WOOF.
Jul. 3, 2021 at 2:35 p.m.
#24
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Quoting: mokumboi
The fact that Dom actually gives Karlsson above 12% is nooooooot a good advertisment for his model. WOOF.


It's before this season. An update should be out after free agency
Jul. 3, 2021 at 2:40 p.m.
#25
mokumboi
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Quoting: SevenLeg
It's before this season. An update should be out after free agency


Even so. Laughable. He has some major blind spots, and this is with his model habitually undervaluing D-men.
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