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Trading Allen before the Expansion Draft

Created by: pinslack
Team: 2021-22 Montreal Canadiens
Initial Creation Date: Jul. 16, 2021
Published: Jul. 16, 2021
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
In this scenario, we lose Allen + Fleury for 3rd instead of losing Allen to SEA for nothing (inb4 Fleury for a 3rd)

Protection :
Gally Toffoli Anderson KK Evans Lehko Danault (UFA rights)
Petry Edmundson Chiarot

Forwards that meet the exposure requirements : Drouin Byron
D that meet the exposure requirements : Weber Kulak
G that meet the exposure requirements : McNiven

Drouin case : he would still be a mystery at the Expansion Draft (LTIR? out of hockey?) so he would have 0 value even if he's a top 6 talent in top shape.

If he's OK to go next season (doubt) and Bergevin thinks he has trade value (or thinks he could play in MTL), protect him instead of Danault. Sign Perry to meet 2/2 forwards expositions.

SEA wouldnt touch because of LTIR Drouin + Weber
SEA wouldnt select Byron because he has negative value because of his contract but if they do, it helps MTL
SEA could pick Kulak. He has been good but MTL coachs never trusted him so he's set to be a 7th D. At 1.8m, it was expensive so it helps MTL. He most likely have next to 0 value
SEA could pick Fleury too. Bad for MTL RD pipeline, but like Kulak, he most likely have next to 0 value

TLDR : trade Allen to get value out of him and let SEA select a player with 0 value (or negative value) to avoid losing Allen for nothing. Maybe 5 teams could bid, so I'm guessing a 3rd.
Free Agent Signings
CREATEDYEARSCAP HIT
Allen, Jake
2$2,875,000
Allen, Jake
2$2,875,000
Allen, Jake
2$2,875,000
Allen, Jake
2$2,875,000
Allen, Jake
2$2,875,000
Trades
1.
MTL
  1. 2021 3rd round pick (SJS)
SJS
  1. Allen, Jake
Additional Details:
Protect Allen, buyout Jones and expose Korenar
2.
MTL
    3rd
    COL
    1. Allen, Jake
    Additional Details:
    Protect Allen, expose Grubauer UFA rights, Miska & Johansson
    3.
    MTL
      3rd
      DET
      1. Allen, Jake
      Additional Details:
      Protect Allen, expose Greiss & Bernier UFA rights
      4.
      MTL
        3rd
        BUF
        1. Allen, Jake
        Additional Details:
        Protect Allent, expose Tokarski & Ulmark UFA rights
        5.
        MTL
          3rd
          EDM
          1. Allen, Jake
          Additional Details:
          Protect Allen, expose Smith UFA rights, Skinner & Stalock, buyout Koskinen
          6.
          MTL
          SEA
          1. Fleury, Cale [RFA Rights]
          Buyouts
          DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
          2021
          Logo of the MTL
          Logo of the MTL
          Logo of the TBL
          Logo of the CHI
          Logo of the WSH
          Logo of the SJS
          Logo of the MTL
          Logo of the STL
          Logo of the VGK
          Logo of the PHI
          Logo of the MTL
          Logo of the MTL
          2022
          Logo of the MTL
          Logo of the MTL
          Logo of the MTL
          Logo of the MTL
          Logo of the MTL
          Logo of the MTL
          Logo of the MTL
          2023
          Logo of the MTL
          Logo of the MTL
          Logo of the MTL
          Logo of the MTL
          Logo of the MTL
          Logo of the MTL
          Logo of the MTL
          ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
          13$81,500,000$39,862,977$597,561$1,475,000$41,637,023
          Left WingCentreRight Wing
          Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
          $2,125,000$2,125,000
          RW, LW
          UFA - 3
          Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
          $863,333$863,333 (Performance Bonus$537,500$538K)
          C
          UFA - 1
          Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
          $6,500,000$6,500,000
          RW, LW
          M-NTC, NMC
          UFA - 6
          Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
          $3,400,000$3,400,000
          LW, RW
          UFA - 2
          Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
          $750,000$750,000
          C
          UFA - 1
          Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
          $5,500,000$5,500,000
          RW, LW
          M-NTC
          UFA - 6
          Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
          $880,833$880,833 (Performance Bonus$300,000$300K)
          LW, RW
          UFA - 2
          Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
          Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
          $875,000$875,000
          LD/RD
          M-NTC
          UFA - 3
          Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
          $10,500,000$10,500,000
          G
          NMC
          UFA - 5
          Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
          $1,750,000$1,750,000
          LD/RD
          M-NTC
          UFA - 1
          Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
          $2,343,750$2,343,750
          RD
          M-NTC, NMC
          UFA - 4
          Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
          $894,167$894,167 (Performance Bonus$637,500$638K)
          LD
          RFA - 1
          ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
          Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
          $925,000$925,000
          LD/RD
          UFA - 1
          Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
          $5,500,000$5,500,000
          LW, RW
          M-NTC
          UFA - 2
          Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
          $7,857,143$7,857,143
          RD
          UFA - 5
          Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
          $2,875,000$2,875,000
          G
          UFA - 2

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          Jul. 16, 2021 at 10:26 a.m.
          #1
          Buffbry
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          Wings pass, we aren't giving up picks or assets at this time. We are protecting greiss and bringing back bernier after expansion draft
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          Jul. 16, 2021 at 10:31 a.m.
          #2
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          Quoting: buffbry
          Wings pass, we aren't giving up picks or assets at this time. We are protecting greiss and bringing back bernier after expansion draft


          It was a long shot with DET indeed
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          Jul. 16, 2021 at 10:38 a.m.
          #3
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          This seems to be the consensus. Frankly even if no teams are willing to trade for Allen and we lose him for nothing, im not losing sleep over it.

          Sure its nice to get an extra 3rd or whatever but i mean we already have the 2nd most picks in the draft so losing Allen and simply replacing him with a UFA isnt that big of a deal.....
          pinslack and RobbStark03 liked this.
          Jul. 16, 2021 at 10:40 a.m.
          #4
          1 Hertl guy
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          I do not think the sharks, wings or avs accept. Korenar is the sharks future goalie, so would not want to lose him to expansion, wings need either goalie, and the avs probably won't even resign gru until after the draft.
          pinslack and aedoran liked this.
          Jul. 16, 2021 at 10:41 a.m.
          #5
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          you have until 3:00 PM (EDT) today... after that, you're doomed since the Expansion Draft roster freeze is on
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          Jul. 16, 2021 at 10:46 a.m.
          #6
          You know nothing JS
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          Try to add a goalie UFA rights in return.
          aedoran liked this.
          Jul. 16, 2021 at 10:49 a.m.
          #7
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          I'd take Allen for a 3rd on the Oilers.
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          Jul. 16, 2021 at 10:53 a.m.
          #8
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          Quoting: F50marco
          This seems to be the consensus. Frankly even if no teams are willing to trade for Allen and we lose him for nothing, im not losing sleep over it.

          Sure its nice to get an extra 3rd or whatever but i mean we already have the 2nd most picks in the draft so losing Allen and simply replacing him with a UFA isnt that big of a deal.....


          I think it's quite the opposite actually. Bergevin acquired Allen and signed him to an extension immediately because he knew with Price's inconsistent play and injury history that he needed to lower his workload and Primeau wasn't and still isn't ready for that kind of job, still probably at least a year away. So the extension of Allen fits the timeline for Primeau to be ready for more NHL minutes. Plus Montreal has 12 picks in this years draft - 6 of them in the first 3 rounds - and already have a decently good prospect system, making it more of a possibility for them to move some of those picks to secure that Seattle doesn't touch Allen for those reasons I said, and Montreal can then control who Seattle takes.

          Personally I predict that Montreal moves at least 1 of their 2nd round picks (if not 2 of them) and a mediocre prospect to have Seattle select Byron or Drouin. This actually helps protect their biggest asset more (Price) and frees up more cap space on the process.
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          Jul. 16, 2021 at 11:18 a.m.
          #9
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          Quoting: F50marco
          This seems to be the consensus. Frankly even if no teams are willing to trade for Allen and we lose him for nothing, im not losing sleep over it.


          I mean, with Weber unprotected and flirting with retirement, with Tatar walking, it really does seem that Allen will be SEA's choice. I mean, even if they're going to trade him afterwards, Allen has the highest value. Especially with a team friendly cap hit.

          As far as losing sleep over it, I disagree. JAllen has been the best 2nd goalie for the Habs in the past 10 years almost hehe! Not even close. Calm, confident, solid, winning his games. He did the job. MBergevin will be disappointed in the outcome, but I do think it's over for Allen.

          The other thing I'd do if I was Bergevin would be to TRY - and I want to stress TRY - to throw a 2nd round pick and a prospect for SEA to have them pick somebody other than Allen. Prospect could be Ylonen for instance. To which SEA would decline very, very quickly. And so we're back in a dead end.

          Yeah, Allen's gone. Might as well keep all picks and just deal with it afterwards. Teams that have negotiated with VGK in 2017 have mostly looked ridiculous in hindsight.
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          Jul. 16, 2021 at 11:30 a.m.
          #10
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          Quoting: TrueCanuck
          I think it's quite the opposite actually. Bergevin acquired Allen and signed him to an extension immediately because he knew with Price's inconsistent play and injury history that he needed to lower his workload and Primeau wasn't and still isn't ready for that kind of job, still probably at least a year away. So the extension of Allen fits the timeline for Primeau to be ready for more NHL minutes. Plus Montreal has 12 picks in this years draft - 6 of them in the first 3 rounds - and already have a decently good prospect system, making it more of a possibility for them to move some of those picks to secure that Seattle doesn't touch Allen for those reasons I said, and Montreal can then control who Seattle takes.

          Personally I predict that Montreal moves at least 1 of their 2nd round picks (if not 2 of them) and a mediocre prospect to have Seattle select Byron or Drouin. This actually helps protect their biggest asset more (Price) and frees up more cap space on the process.


          The rumored cost is a 1st and a prospect.......... I understand Allen was an integral part of this team but I also understand that replacing him is not a complex task.

          if the cost is indeed a 3rd, then yeah sure why not but Im not losing sleep over it if it isn't. If the Habs have to let him go to simply to sign another UFA goalie, Im perfectly ok with it. Paying any exorbant price to keep Allen is what BAD GMS do. See Vegas expansion trades. Literally all of them backfired majorly..
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          Jul. 16, 2021 at 11:37 a.m.
          #11
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          Quoting: Fran615
          I mean, with Weber unprotected and flirting with retirement, with Tatar walking, it really does seem that Allen will be SEA's choice. I mean, even if they're going to trade him afterwards, Allen has the highest value. Especially with a team friendly cap hit.

          As far as losing sleep over it, I disagree. JAllen has been the best 2nd goalie for the Habs in the past 10 years almost hehe! Not even close. Calm, confident, solid, winning his games. He did the job. MBergevin will be disappointed in the outcome, but I do think it's over for Allen.

          The other thing I'd do if I was Bergevin would be to TRY - and I want to stress TRY - to throw a 2nd round pick and a prospect for SEA to have them pick somebody other than Allen. Prospect could be Ylonen for instance. To which SEA would decline very, very quickly. And so we're back in a dead end.

          Yeah, Allen's gone. Might as well keep all picks and just deal with it afterwards. Teams that have negotiated with VGK in 2017 have mostly looked ridiculous in hindsight.


          I think you may have misunderstood me. Me not losing sleep over it isn't because I think Allen isn't good or valuable. On the contrary. Im not losing any sleep over it because replacing him will not be hard to do. Lost of great options available. Lots of teams willing to trade goalies for picks and Habs have tons of picks.

          Allen was really good this year for the Habs but he's not the only good goalie out there. Thats why im not worried.
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          Jul. 16, 2021 at 11:44 a.m.
          #12
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          Quoting: F50marco
          The rumored cost is a 1st and a prospect.......... I understand Allen was an integral part of this team but I also understand that replacing him is not a complex task.

          if the cost is indeed a 3rd, then yeah sure why not but Im not losing sleep over it if it isn't. If the Habs have to let him go to simply to sign another UFA goalie, Im perfectly ok with it. Paying any exorbant price to keep Allen is what BAD GMS do. See Vegas expansion trades. Literally all of them backfired majorly..


          "Rumoured cost" just remember the first word there.. that's the initial ask and that's what Seattle has been asking for from every team - negotiations always start high and come down. If Montreal came in and offered multiple 2nds instead, it's likely be a strong counter offer (or even the earlier 2nd and earliest 3rd). Also keep in mind that Montreal's 1st is 31st overall so it's not a very valuable 1st, I think to be able to move the piece they want, it's definitely in play.
          Jul. 16, 2021 at 12:04 p.m.
          #13
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          Quoting: TrueCanuck
          "Rumoured cost" just remember the first word there.. that's the initial ask and that's what Seattle has been asking for from every team - negotiations always start high and come down. If Montreal came in and offered multiple 2nds instead, it's likely be a strong counter offer (or even the earlier 2nd and earliest 3rd). Also keep in mind that Montreal's 1st is 31st overall so it's not a very valuable 1st, I think to be able to move the piece they want, it's definitely in play.


          I think you just proved my point though. Yes I understand that the cost would be negotiated down but the point was if its just a 3rd rounder, then maybe I'd consider it but even then I wouldn't be worried if not. Anything close to what you mentioned is ludicrous for what it would cost to REPLACE Allen by other means. We're talking about a backup goalie here.

          Paying to not lose a player is ONLY viable when the player your losing is A) Irreplaceable and/or B) worth more in trade than in loss. Allen is neither.
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          Jul. 16, 2021 at 12:27 p.m.
          #14
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          Quoting: alpine4life
          you have until 3:00 PM (EDT) today... after that, you're doomed since the Expansion Draft roster freeze is on


          I thought it was the 17th?
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          Jul. 16, 2021 at 12:34 p.m.
          #15
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          Quoting: aedoran
          I thought it was the 17th?


          you are correct... the freeze starts at the same time than the submit list...

          Quoting: NHL
          July 17: Expansion Draft roster freeze & deadline for teams to submit protected lists for Seattle Expansion Draft (5:00PM-EDT).
          July 18-20: Seattle's exclusive window to interview teams' unprotected pending free agents.
          July 21: Seattle Expansion Draft (8:00PM-EDT).
          aedoran liked this.
          Jul. 16, 2021 at 2:35 p.m.
          #16
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          Quoting: F50marco
          I think you just proved my point though. Yes I understand that the cost would be negotiated down but the point was if its just a 3rd rounder, then maybe I'd consider it but even then I wouldn't be worried if not. Anything close to what you mentioned is ludicrous for what it would cost to REPLACE Allen by other means. We're talking about a backup goalie here.

          Paying to not lose a player is ONLY viable when the player your losing is A) Irreplaceable and/or B) worth more in trade than in loss. Allen is neither.


          I don't think you fully follow my point. The idea of moving say at most the 31st overall pick to ensure that Seattle takes say Byron instead of Allen is more than just keeping a backup (mind you he's actually one of the best backups in the league). If you allow them to take Allen, you're losing $2.875M off the cap for 2 seasons and likely have to spend $2M + on a quality backup to replace him. So you're only gaining $875K in cap space, plus you're likely to overspend on a UFA as most teams do. Where as if you pay say the 31st overall pick (just an example on the high end) to have Seattle ensure they select Byron instead, it gives you more cap flexibility and roster flexibility - in this situation, you lose Byron's $3.4M cap hit for 2 seasons outright, and you can replace him with a guy on a league minimum deal or a ELC contract so even at most of an ELC at $925K to fill that spot of Byron, you're still gaining $2.475M in cap space which will help sign key RFA's like Kotkaniemi, Lehkonen, etc. and now you don't have to go out and overspend on a backup goalie in free agency. Along with that, as I said Montreal's farm system is pretty decent, not too strong but has some good pieces, so a top pick could be expendable when you remember that IF they moved the 31st overall pick, they still have the 63rd and 64th overall picks in the draft and generally the talent level between the 31st and 63-64th pick isn't the biggest either.

          Would the 31st overall pick be slightly high to have Seattle pick a different player? Yeah you could argue that but I find it extremely odd how you're saying that offering the 2nds is "ludicrous" when they're both the immediate picks before the 3rd round, so they have essentially the same value as a 3rd round pick. I could very well see the deal being something like Seattle takes Byron and is compensated with the 63rd pick and a mediocre level prospect in return (maybe a Jan Mysak or Gianni Fairbrother type guy). It gives Seattle a good veteran that has proven leadership and a recent good playoff performer as well as a couple lower valued younger assets, and gives Montreal cap relief as well as a piece of mind in net.
          Jul. 16, 2021 at 2:41 p.m.
          #17
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          Quoting: TrueCanuck
          "Rumoured cost" just remember the first word there.. that's the initial ask and that's what Seattle has been asking for from every team - negotiations always start high and come down. If Montreal came in and offered multiple 2nds instead, it's likely be a strong counter offer (or even the earlier 2nd and earliest 3rd). Also keep in mind that Montreal's 1st is 31st overall so it's not a very valuable 1st, I think to be able to move the piece they want, it's definitely in play.


          Its smart for Seattle to ask the world as they are in no pressure to take contracts this season for assets. The same issues will face teams next year with players like Point, Barkov and Malkin needing new deals and the same flat cap. It may be more prudent to ice a decent team with term 2 years or less and try again next offseason til teams crack
          Jul. 16, 2021 at 6:25 p.m.
          #18
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          Quoting: rpain
          I'd take Allen for a 3rd on the Oilers.


          Would you fear losing Skinner to SEA? Does he deserve your protection or you'd be OK giving it to Allen?
          Jul. 17, 2021 at 12:07 a.m.
          #19
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          Quoting: TrueCanuck
          I don't think you fully follow my point. The idea of moving say at most the 31st overall pick to ensure that Seattle takes say Byron instead of Allen is more than just keeping a backup (mind you he's actually one of the best backups in the league). If you allow them to take Allen, you're losing $2.875M off the cap for 2 seasons and likely have to spend $2M + on a quality backup to replace him. So you're only gaining $875K in cap space, plus you're likely to overspend on a UFA as most teams do. Where as if you pay say the 31st overall pick (just an example on the high end) to have Seattle ensure they select Byron instead, it gives you more cap flexibility and roster flexibility - in this situation, you lose Byron's $3.4M cap hit for 2 seasons outright, and you can replace him with a guy on a league minimum deal or a ELC contract so even at most of an ELC at $925K to fill that spot of Byron, you're still gaining $2.475M in cap space which will help sign key RFA's like Kotkaniemi, Lehkonen, etc. and now you don't have to go out and overspend on a backup goalie in free agency. Along with that, as I said Montreal's farm system is pretty decent, not too strong but has some good pieces, so a top pick could be expendable when you remember that IF they moved the 31st overall pick, they still have the 63rd and 64th overall picks in the draft and generally the talent level between the 31st and 63-64th pick isn't the biggest either.

          Would the 31st overall pick be slightly high to have Seattle pick a different player? Yeah you could argue that but I find it extremely odd how you're saying that offering the 2nds is "ludicrous" when they're both the immediate picks before the 3rd round, so they have essentially the same value as a 3rd round pick. I could very well see the deal being something like Seattle takes Byron and is compensated with the 63rd pick and a mediocre level prospect in return (maybe a Jan Mysak or Gianni Fairbrother type guy). It gives Seattle a good veteran that has proven leadership and a recent good playoff performer as well as a couple lower valued younger assets, and gives Montreal cap relief as well as a piece of mind in net.


          If you think trading a 1st, even a late first to keep the backup goalie, then i dont know what to tell you. That to me is terrible asset management. But you do you boo.
          Jul. 17, 2021 at 12:12 a.m.
          #20
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          Quoting: F50marco
          If you think trading a 1st, even a late first to keep the backup goalie, then i dont know what to tell you. That to me is terrible asset management. But you do you boo.


          You ain't lucky enough to have me as your boo. Lmao.
          F50marco liked this.
          Jul. 18, 2021 at 9:14 p.m.
          #21
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          Quoting: F50marco
          I think you may have misunderstood me. Me not losing sleep over it isn't because I think Allen isn't good or valuable. On the contrary. Im not losing any sleep over it because replacing him will not be hard to do. Lost of great options available. Lots of teams willing to trade goalies for picks and Habs have tons of picks.

          Allen was really good this year for the Habs but he's not the only good goalie out there. Thats why im not worried.


          How things have changed since you wrote that post hahahaha
          Wow. Price. Now I am losing sleep. Dude, WTF is going on ???????
          Price, Weber, Danault, Drouin, all unprotected: WTF!
          Jul. 18, 2021 at 9:31 p.m.
          #22
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          Quoting: Fran615
          How things have changed since you wrote that post hahahaha
          Wow. Price. Now I am losing sleep. Dude, WTF is going on ???????
          Price, Weber, Danault, Drouin, all unprotected: WTF!


          Im still not worried. Frankly Im even more ecstatic then before.....

          Seattle isn't taking Price but if for some reason they want to be bold and do, that's still a win for the Habs.

          Seattle takes Price, Habs now have 10.5M to replace him and are out from under that contract which in years 3-4-5 when Price will be in his late 30's will look bad.
          Seattle doesn't take Price, then nothing changes for the Habs. They keep all their goalies and lose a player that they can easily replace. Byron, Kulak, Drouin , etc.
          Fran615 and pinslack liked this.
           
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