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Putting together the puzzle pieces DISCUSSION

Created by: joshelkin
Team: 2021-22 New York Islanders
Initial Creation Date: Jul. 18, 2021
Published: Jul. 18, 2021
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
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1) Protecting 2/3rd of the fourth line feels like Cizikas returning is a lock

2) A bought out Parise on vet min (maybe include some bonuses) screams Lou Lamoriello. He has interest in playing here and Lou has an extended history with Parise.

3) Exposing Eberle and Bailey signals that Lou still wants to shed a little more salary

4) All RFAs will return. No Devon Toews situation.
-------------------//----------------------
This is where the fun begins IMO. Assuming you don't move out more money or have a side deal with SEA, Lou should have about $9.25m to sign a top-6F and Top-4D.

Plan A - Landeskog and Suter.
Lamoriello always seems to chase the biggest fish (Tavares, Panarin etc) so if Landeskog hits the market I think Lou will try his hardest to land him. Suter is linked to Parise, could have his contract loaded with bonuses to keep the initial AAV down, and has played for Trotz before in Nashville.

Plan B - Tarasenko and Martinez/Edler/Chara/Merrill
If Landeskog doesn't hit the market, seems like Lou is enamored with Tarasenko. If he's healthy, he would thrive next to Barzal and the 35-40 goal scorer we remember could reemerge. This scenario works under assumption Suter can get more money (or doesn't want to play for Trotz) so Lou pivots to another experienced LD. If it's Martinez, Lamoriello probably needs to shed a smidge more money (Komarov or Hickey?) to find the space.

Plan C - Palmieri and Martinez/Reilly.
Landeskog stays in COL or signs elsewhere. Tarasenko lands somewhere that isn't NY. Now what? Let's not kid ourselves with Ovi either - he's clearly a Capital for life. Blake Coleman, Mike Hoffman and Zach Hyman are interesting options, but Lou sticks to who he knows in Kyle Palmieri. He was effective in the playoffs, grew more comfortable in Trotz's system, and can go back to his natural RW position. He had chemistry with Barzal towards the end of the season and scored some big goals. He is more of a two-way player than Eberle and should bring similar offensive production. He signs for less than $5.5m (Eberle's AAV) so Lou should have ample money left over to sign Alec Martinez or Mike Reilly outright without moving any money.

All three of these routes seem plausible for their own reasons. Which Lou takes (or hand he is dealt) will be fun to watch. But any of the above options brings back a stronger team than last year's, who was 1 goal from a Cup final appearance.

Thoughts? Comments?
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
4$4,000,000
3$3,000,000
6$5,000,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
6$2,500,000
1$750,000
7$7,500,000
2$1,500,000
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DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2021
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2022
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2023
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ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
23$81,500,000$81,196,688$1,365,854$1,407,500$303,312
Left WingCentreRight Wing
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$7,000,000$7,000,000
LW
NTC
UFA - 5
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$7,000,000$7,000,000
C, RW
UFA - 2
$7,500,000$7,500,000
LW, C
UFA - 8
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$4,000,000$4,000,000
RW, LW
UFA - 3
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$6,000,000$6,000,000
C, LW
M-NTC
UFA - 4
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$5,000,000$5,000,000
RW, LW, C
UFA - 3
$750,000$750,000
LW
UFA - 1
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$5,000,000$5,000,000
C
NTC
UFA - 5
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$894,167$894,167 (Performance Bonus$537,500$538K)
RW
RFA - 2
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$1,500,000$1,500,000
LW, RW
UFA - 3
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$3,500,000$3,500,000
RW
UFA - 1
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$2,500,000$2,500,000
C
UFA - 6
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
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LD
UFA - 8
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RD
UFA - 1
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$5,000,000$5,000,000
G
M-NTC
UFA - 2
$1,500,000$1,500,000
LD
UFA - 4
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$894,167$894,167 (Performance Bonus$537,500$538K)
RD
RFA - 1
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$750,000$750,000 (Performance Bonus$250,000$250K)
LD/RD
UFA - 1
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$1,450,000$1,450,000
RD
UFA - 2
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$3,000,000$3,000,000
G
UFA - 3
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
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$1,375,000$1,375,000
LW, RW
UFA - 2
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$6,000,000$6,000,000
RD
M-NTC
UFA - 1
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$3,000,000$3,000,000
RW, LW, C
M-NTC
UFA - 1
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$842,500$842,500 (Performance Bonus$82,500$82K)
LD
RFA - 2

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Jul. 18, 2021 at 5:26 p.m.
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Jul. 18, 2021 at 5:27 p.m.
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Jul. 18, 2021 at 5:27 p.m.
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Jul. 18, 2021 at 5:27 p.m.
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Jul. 18, 2021 at 5:45 p.m.
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Plan A is ideal (signing landeskog if he’s available) but suter is going to be too expensive and the isles shouldn’t be giving out P.Bonuses to older players. McCabe/kulikov would be good options for 2LD, if they sign Merrill then Greene can’t play. You can’t have 2 out of your 3 LHD be offensive blackholes.

Plan B makes sense only if they don’t have to give up like a 2nd and STL retains 50% of his salary. It’s a huge risk.
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Jul. 18, 2021 at 5:47 p.m.
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Quoting: Isles777
Plan A is ideal (signing landeskog if he’s available) but suter is going to be too expensive and the isles shouldn’t be giving out P.Bonuses to older players. McCabe/kulikov would be good options for 2LD, if they sign Merrill then Greene can’t play. You can’t have 2 out of your 3 LHD be offensive blackholes.

Plan B makes sense only if they don’t have to give up like a 2nd and STL retains 50% of his salary. It’s a huge risk.


I think Lou has to have clean medicals for Plan B. Or our doctors give the green light. Probably doesn't make the deal without it. Forgot about McCabe, yes he could be a nice option there. I feel like Suter is the long shot to come here just because he will have more options than most of the UFA market, but he could be a great minute eater and improved partner for Dobson who should make a jump into the top-4
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Jul. 18, 2021 at 7:21 p.m.
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Quoting: joshelkin
I think Lou has to have clean medicals for Plan B. Or our doctors give the green light. Probably doesn't make the deal without it. Forgot about McCabe, yes he could be a nice option there. I feel like Suter is the long shot to come here just because he will have more options than most of the UFA market, but he could be a great minute eater and improved partner for Dobson who should make a jump into the top-4


Do you think Lou is going to do a side deal with Seattle?
Jul. 18, 2021 at 7:37 p.m.
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I don't know why everyone is dying to sign cizikas around 2.5 mil for term. Look at your bottom 6. How many players do you have at that 2.5-3.5 mil that you hate?

That landeskog deal is likely the cost (or higher) but I'm fairly confident whoever signs it will regret it.

Landy was a 20-25 g, 50-60 pt scorer pre MacKinnon becoming a perennial Hart trophy. I suspect he regresses to that without him. He's a good player but I think you'll regret it.

This team as is spends too much on wings. If you can get out of say Bailey and get two years of tarasenko be happy because that timing will work well for Dobson and Wahlstrom who you hope develop enough to want that money
Jul. 18, 2021 at 7:47 p.m.
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Edited Jul. 18, 2021 at 7:53 p.m.
Quoting: Isles777
Do you think Lou is going to do a side deal with Seattle?


I think so, mostly because of Bailey being exposed. I know he is the scapegoat to a lot of fans (myself included sometimes) but he's such a Trotz guy. Combine that with Lou saying he doesn't want to shake up the core and I don't see how or why Lou exposed him without confidence he won't be the pick.

If there is no deal in place yet, I'm shocked. If Lou truly doesn't care which he moves as long as $5m + would come off the books that signals to me he has plans for a big fish UFA. Replacing one of them for Palmieri just seems odd. Feels like there is more at play here

Edit/additional thought: If Lou surprisingly skips out on a Parise signing that's where it could get interesting for me. Still lose one of Bails/Ebs to replace with Palmieri. But then you can still spend $3-4m on another winger. Tatar? Hoffman? Someone who could be here beyond a vet min season.
Jul. 18, 2021 at 7:55 p.m.
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Quoting: joshelkin
I think so, mostly because of Bailey being exposed. I know he is the scapegoat to a lot of fans (myself included sometimes) but he's such a Trotz guy. Combine that with Lou saying he doesn't want to shake up the core and I don't see how or why Lou exposed him without confidence he won't be the pick.

If there is no deal in place yet, I'm shocked. If Lou truly doesn't care which he moves as long as $5m + would come off the books that signals to me he has plans for a big fish UFA. Replacing one of them for Palmieri just seems odd. Feels like there is more at play here


I think eberle is more of the scapegoat and it’s no secret that Lou was shopping him. If there’s a side deal does that mean Francis is interested in Eberle and might take on another contract like komarov? Or is Lou planning to pay a steep price to dump komarov/Hickey? See that doesn’t make sense to me - Lou traded a 3rd pairing D for a 2nd round pick and then gave up two late 2nds to get rid of one of the worst contracts in the league. It wouldn’t make sense if Lou gave up a 2022 1st to get rid of komarov because he’d go from fleecing 2 GMs to getting fleeced.
Jul. 18, 2021 at 7:56 p.m.
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Quoting: joshelkin
I think so, mostly because of Bailey being exposed. I know he is the scapegoat to a lot of fans (myself included sometimes) but he's such a Trotz guy. Combine that with Lou saying he doesn't want to shake up the core and I don't see how or why Lou exposed him without confidence he won't be the pick.

If there is no deal in place yet, I'm shocked. If Lou truly doesn't care which he moves as long as $5m + would come off the books that signals to me he has plans for a big fish UFA. Replacing one of them for Palmieri just seems odd. Feels like there is more at play here

Edit/additional thought: If Lou surprisingly skips out on a Parise signing that's where it could get interesting for me. Still lose one of Bails/Ebs to replace with Palmieri. But then you can still spend $3-4m on another winger. Tatar? Hoffman? Someone who could be here beyond a vet min season.


Btw what is your meaning of a “Trotz guy” lol
Jul. 18, 2021 at 7:56 p.m.
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Im thinking there’s a real good chance Seattle goes bailey and we trade Eberle then throw the bag at Landeskog and move a contract or buyout enough to re-sign Palmieri or go after Coleman
Jul. 18, 2021 at 7:58 p.m.
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Quoting: Isles777
I think eberle is more of the scapegoat and it’s no secret that Lou was shopping him. If there’s a side deal does that mean Francis is interested in Eberle and might take on another contract like komarov? Or is Lou planning to pay a steep price to dump komarov/Hickey? See that doesn’t make sense to me - Lou traded a 3rd pairing D for a 2nd round pick and then gave up two late 2nds to get rid of one of the worst contracts in the league. It wouldn’t make sense if Lou gave up a 2022 1st to get rid of komarov because he’d go from fleecing 2 GMs to getting fleeced.


I mean maybe that could happen. But it's 6 one, half dozen the other. Figure you could at least get a 2nd for Ebs alone, right? That should be enough to clear Leo to another team. So unless the market dried up and Lou had no choice but to go through Seattle, then maybe. If he could have did that before expansion would have been another $8.5m cleared and protect Bailey from the get go
Jul. 18, 2021 at 7:59 p.m.
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Quoting: Isles777
Btw what is your meaning of a “Trotz guy” lol


Trotz sings Bails praises every chance he gets. I think he's one of his favorite guys on the roster
Jul. 18, 2021 at 8:00 p.m.
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Quoting: TheWhiteWhale
Im thinking there’s a real good chance Seattle goes bailey and we trade Eberle then throw the bag at Landeskog and move a contract or buyout enough to re-sign Palmieri or go after Coleman


I feel like that goes very much against Lou's end of season comments about keeping as much of the core together as possible. I could see Eberle going first out of the two, but both would be absolutely wild and has serious potential to blow up
Jul. 18, 2021 at 8:03 p.m.
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Quoting: joshelkin
I mean maybe that could happen. But it's 6 one, half dozen the other. Figure you could at least get a 2nd for Ebs alone, right? That should be enough to clear Leo to another team. So unless the market dried up and Lou had no choice but to go through Seattle, then maybe. If he could have did that before expansion would have been another $8.5m cleared and protect Bailey from the get go


I’m seeing comments on Twitter saying it’s possible Lou makes a side deal to protect bailey and eberle, but that makes no sense , he would have protected them, right? Lol
Jul. 18, 2021 at 8:07 p.m.
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Quoting: joshelkin
Trotz sings Bails praises every chance he gets. I think he's one of his favorite guys on the roster


Yeah he loved Leddy too and he had the worst defensive impact on the team. Bailey is just so average (overall). He’s a talented passer that’s about it, he’s not a two way guy. To me a “Trotz guy” would be someone like Beauvillier , the poster boy for how someone in Trotz system should play. Above average in every aspect of the game, elite forechecker, great defensively.
Jul. 18, 2021 at 8:07 p.m.
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Quoting: Isles777
I’m seeing comments on Twitter saying it’s possible Lou makes a side deal to protect bailey and eberle, but that makes no sense , he would have protected them, right? Lol


I think there are a couple plausible explanations, but nothing concrete.

1) Lou got wind Martin or Clutter was coveted and would be the pick. He wants Cizikas back and keep the fourth line in tact because they are better together than the sum of their parts

2) Cizikas deal isn't 100% yet and this was to show him how serious they are about keeping 4th line in tact. Zeeker, Matty and Cal all have the same agent

3) If a side deal was made before Lou submitted the list, who actually was protected vs exposed is irrelevant. I still don't see why it's so crazy to dump Leo or Hickey at the expense of a 2nd rounder and say Bellows. I know Seattle was asking for 2 firsts but that's so unreasonable I don't think the report was even accurate
Jul. 18, 2021 at 8:11 p.m.
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Quoting: joshelkin
I think there are a couple plausible explanations, but nothing concrete.

1) Lou got wind Martin or Clutter was coveted and would be the pick. He wants Cizikas back and keep the fourth line in tact because they are better together than the sum of their parts

2) Cizikas deal isn't 100% yet and this was to show him how serious they are about keeping 4th line in tact. Zeeker, Matty and Cal all have the same agent

3) If a side deal was made before Lou submitted the list, who actually was protected vs exposed is irrelevant. I still don't see why it's so crazy to dump Leo or Hickey at the expense of a 2nd rounder and say Bellows. I know Seattle was asking for 2 firsts but that's so unreasonable I don't think the report was even accurate



Seattle was asking for a 1st and a 3rd, I think it’s crazy to pay that price to dump leo/Hickey after the two trades he just made.
Jul. 18, 2021 at 8:14 p.m.
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Quoting: Isles777
Seattle was asking for a 1st and a 3rd, I think it’s crazy to pay that price to dump leo/Hickey after the two trades he just made.


That's fair. Lou does lose some leverage in this case because it's taking a guy PLUS avoiding others, so I can see the price tag going up being that it's a different situation. However being that Leo and Hickey are expiring deals and no long term consequences to Seattle, I'd hope the price comes down some. It's not like either are that expensive on their own.
Jul. 18, 2021 at 8:16 p.m.
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Quoting: Isles777
Seattle was asking for a 1st and a 3rd, I think it’s crazy to pay that price to dump leo/Hickey after the two trades he just made.


The other thing too is I just don't feel like Lou makes that decision without something in mind. I'd be very surprised if he dangled both Eberle and Bailey out there just hoping one would be selected. He's so meticulous. There has to be something bigger at play here that we don't see. It's similar to what Barry said about lineup changes, paraphrasing: "hard to suggest something when you don't have all the information in the room"
Jul. 18, 2021 at 8:18 p.m.
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Quoting: joshelkin
That's fair. Lou does lose some leverage in this case because it's taking a guy PLUS avoiding others, so I can see the price tag going up being that it's a different situation. However being that Leo and Hickey are expiring deals and no long term consequences to Seattle, I'd hope the price comes down some. It's not like either are that expensive on their own.


I don't think he loses leverage because he doesn't have to trade Leo/hickey. His back isn't against the wall anymore. We have enough cap space. Let Seattle pick between Bailey + eberle , buy out hickey.
Jul. 18, 2021 at 8:22 p.m.
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Quoting: joshelkin
I feel like that goes very much against Lou's end of season comments about keeping as much of the core together as possible. I could see Eberle going first out of the two, but both would be absolutely wild and has serious potential to blow up


I agree but if he’s already shopping eberle is very possible
Jul. 18, 2021 at 8:24 p.m.
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Quoting: joshelkin
The other thing too is I just don't feel like Lou makes that decision without something in mind. I'd be very surprised if he dangled both Eberle and Bailey out there just hoping one would be selected. He's so meticulous. There has to be something bigger at play here that we don't see. It's similar to what Barry said about lineup changes, paraphrasing: "hard to suggest something when you don't have all the information in the room"


can you imagine lou does the panthers deal (Marchessault /smith) - "you can take Eberle is you take Bailey as well" Frees up 10.5 mill in cap space.

Assuming Seattle takes Dunn, isles can give up like a 3rd + Bellows for Tarasenko (3 mill retained). Sign Landeskog.

Landeskog-Barzal-Wahlstrom
Beau-Nelson-Tarasenko
Parise-Pageau-Golyshev
Jul. 18, 2021 at 8:37 p.m.
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Quoting: Isles777
Plan A is ideal (signing landeskog if he’s available) but suter is going to be too expensive and the isles shouldn’t be giving out P.Bonuses to older players. McCabe/kulikov would be good options for 2LD, if they sign Merrill then Greene can’t play. You can’t have 2 out of your 3 LHD be offensive blackholes.

Plan B makes sense only if they don’t have to give up like a 2nd and STL retains 50% of his salary. It’s a huge risk.


Do you think Avs would not be unwilling to pay him 7.5, I haven't seen there capspace it just hard to believe at the end of the day the wouldn't
 
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