End of season prospect pool assessment

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Created by: CoopsTroops

Team: 2021-22 Tampa Bay Lightning

Initial Creation Date: Jun. 6, 2021

Published: Jul. 18, 2021

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

Previous assessment: https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/2277456

Explanation of Tiers:
- LW: I believe they can be part of a 23 man NHL roster in the future.
- C: Coin flip as to whether they will belong in the LW or RW column.
- RW: They need to find another gear in their development to see NHL games, but possess enough talent to the point where it's possible.
- LD: Top out at the AHL/ECHL level. It is still possible to get to the NHL, but they really need to find some extra gears.
- RD: Have not seen enough of them to make a judgement. Probably would fall in RW or LD column.

Graduates:
- Ross Colton, Alex Barre-Boulet
I expect both will be full-time with Tampa or someone else next season.

Dropouts:
- Ty Taylor, Kris Oldham, Ben Thomas, Quinn Schmiemann
Taylor and Oldham are goalies who will not receive ELCs now that we've signed Alnefelt and Miftakhov.
I'm just aging Thomas out here, but he looked solid during his call-up this season.
Schmienmann did not sign by June 1st, so we no longer hold his signing rights.

New Additons:
- Antoine Morand (acquired from ANA in Volkov trade)
- Odeen Tufto (signed as a FA out of NCAA)
- Simon Ryfors (signed as a FA out of the SHL)

New Subtractions:
- Magnus Chrona (sent to SJS in Claesson trade)

Misc. Comments:
- Generally, I tried not to put anyone in the "Max AHL" group unless they're truly abysmal (Lipanov) or have already not stood out at the AHL level (Lohin).
- I did hesitate to write Semykin and McDonnell off already, but settled on simply adding the "still possible" qualifer to the LD explanation.
- I debated on whether Thompson and Powell should have been in the "Future NHLer" column instead, but I'd like to see them take another step forward next season first.
- If you looked at the previous assessment, you'd see I moved Walker and Shalagin back. This is somewhat due to clarifying the tiers.
- Otto Somppi was the biggest mover over the course of the season from "Fringe NHLer" to "Future NHLer".
- I left Sean Day out of my previous assessment, not sure why, but here he is. Because of our lack of LHD organization depth, he could find himself as our #4 LD this year and receive playing time if we do not bring back Claesson, Borgman, or another vet. (Claesson was re-signed)
- Our 3rd round pick is our highest this coming draft, so I don't expect any major influx of talent into the system post-draft. I may add them in a preseason assessment, but will probably hold off until the next midseason assessment to get a better idea of what we have.

Free Agent Signings

RESERVE LIST	YEARS	CAP HIT
Capone, Nick	3	$813,321
Crozier, Maxwell	3	$813,321
Dureau, Jaydon	3	$813,321
Groshev, Maxim	3	$813,321
Guttman, Cole	3	$813,321
McDonnell, Declan	3	$813,321
Perbix, Nick	2	$813,321
Powell, Eamon	3	$813,321
Shalagin, Mikhail	3	$813,321
Walker, Samuel	3	$813,321
Webster, Mckade	3	$813,321

RFA	YEARS	CAP HIT
Raddysh, Taylor	1	$750,000
Katchouk, Boris	1	$750,000
Somppi, Otto	1	$750,000
Lohin, Ryan	1	$750,000
Day, Sean	1	$750,000

CREATED	YEARS	CAP HIT
Future, NHLer	1	$1,000,000
Fringe, NHLer	1	$1,000,000
Potential, NHLer	1	$1,000,000
Max, AHLer	1	$1,000,000
Future, NHLer	1	$1,000,000
Potential, NHLer	1	$1,000,000
Not Enough, Info	1	$1,000,000

Buyouts

Vincent Lecavalier: $0
Nikita Kucherov: $7,472,222
Andrei Vasilevskiy: $9,833,333
Steven Stamkos: $7,833,333
Victor Hedman: $1,708,333
Brayden Point: -$750,000
Ryan McDonagh: $576,000
Ondrej Palat: $1,766,667
Yanni Gourde: $583,333
Tyler Johnson: $1,055,556
Anthony Cirelli: $2,375,000
Mikhail Sergachev: $2,375,000
Alex Killorn: $1,483,333
Erik Cernak: $1,531,250
Jan Rutta: $166,667

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2021
2022
2023

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
38	$81,500,000	$70,167,511	$145,122	$1,057,500	$11,332,489

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Future, NHLer $1,000,000$1,000,000	Potential, NHLer $1,000,000$1,000,000	Fringe, NHLer $1,000,000$1,000,000
Katchouk, Boris $750,000$750,000 LW RFA - 3	Ryfors, Simon $842,500$842,500 ($82,500$82K) C, LW, RW RFA - 1	Tufto, Odeen $842,500$842,500 ($82,500$82K) C UFA - 1
Raddysh, Taylor $750,000$750,000 RW RFA - 3	Koepke, Cole $842,500$842,500 ($82,500$82K) LW, RW RFA - 2	Walker, Samuel $813,321$813,321 RW, LW RFA
Somppi, Otto $750,000$750,000 C UFA - 1	Fortier, Gabriel $791,667$791,667 ($132,500$132K) LW RFA - 2	Cajkovic, Maxim $850,833$850,833 ($82,500$82K) RW RFA - 3
Goncalves, Gage $820,000$820,000 ($132,500$132K) LW RFA - 3	Finley, Jack $820,000$820,000 C RFA - 4	Capone, Nick $813,321$813,321 RW RFA
	Thompson, Jack $850,833$850,833 RD RFA - 4	Shalagin, Mikhail $813,321$813,321 C RFA
	Powell, Eamon $813,321$813,321 RD RFA	Dureau, Jaydon $813,321$813,321 LW RFA
		Morand, Antoine $778,333$778,333 ($132,500$132K) C UFA - 1
		Groshev, Maxim $813,321$813,321 RW, LW RFA
		Day, Sean $750,000$750,000 LD RFA - 1
		Perbix, Nick $813,321$813,321 RD UFA
		Green, Alex $817,500$817,500 ($82,500$82K) RD UFA - 1

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Max, AHLer $1,000,000$1,000,000	Not Enough, Info $1,000,000$1,000,000	Future, NHLer $1,000,000$1,000,000
Huntington, Jimmy $809,166$809,166 ($82,500$82K) C UFA - 1	Webster, Mckade $813,321$813,321 C RFA	Alnefelt, Hugo $850,833$850,833 ($82,500$82K) G RFA - 3
	Guttman, Cole $813,321$813,321 C RFA	Potential, NHLer $1,000,000$1,000,000
Lohin, Ryan $750,000$750,000 C, LW, RW UFA	Crozier, Maxwell $813,321$813,321 RD RFA	Miftakhov, Amir $838,333$838,333 G UFA - 3
McDonnell, Declan $813,321$813,321 RW RFA
Lipanov, Alexey $747,500$747,500 ($82,500$82K) C UFA - 1
Semykin, Dmitri $813,333$813,333 LD UFA - 2

Jul. 18, 2021 at 11:22 p.m.

Florida_Man_Maroon

Joined: Jul. 2019

Posts: 1,727

Likes: 918

Thanks a lot for doing this! Really helps me get a great idea of our prospect pool and how our development is going along. Keep the good work up!

On another note, what have you seen out of Sompi that has caused this jump? I had kind of begun to write him off as a potential NHL player for us and never really had him on my radar considering his draft position. With that being said, I understand sometimes it takes awhile for a player to break through (Ross Colton, Ben Thomas).

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Jul. 18, 2021 at 11:27 p.m.

Rangsey

Joined: Jul. 2016

Posts: 4,138

Likes: 2,887

Wonderful work as always. Have you cooled on Ryfors? Thought I remember you being a little higher on him before.

Is it this year of bust for Otto Raddy and Katchouk?

Fort Gabe is where it's at!

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Jul. 19, 2021 at 12:43 a.m.

CoopsTroops

Thread Starter

Rutta 4ever

Joined: Sep. 2020

Posts: 4,539

Likes: 3,914

Quoting: Florida_Man_Maroon

A large jump in production was the main factor. From what I understamd, before watching the Crunch regularly, he was a reliable defensive depth forward, but didn't have the offensive touch to really stand out (something that's holding me back from being higher on Fortier). He received a lot of minutes with Raddysh, Katchouk, Denisenko (Florida's top prospect), and on PP1 and looked really good to my eyes. You could argue he was a product of who he played with, but you could have said the same thing with Colton being a product of centering Barre-Boulet's line last season ('19-'20). He might have been closer to a point per game for the season had he not gotten shuffled around a lot with Mitchell Stephens and Heponiemi (FLA prospect) entering and leaving the Syracuse lineup at times during the year.

The closest comparable I have for him on the Lightning is Colton. Somppi goes to the front of the net and has good puck skills in close. He's the closest to not being in the "Future NHLer" column, but I think he would impress in the NHL in a depth role if given the chance. Probably needs another year to fully mature his game.

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Jul. 19, 2021 at 12:59 a.m.

CoopsTroops

Thread Starter

Rutta 4ever

Joined: Sep. 2020

Posts: 4,539

Likes: 3,914

Quoting: Rangsey

Wonderful work as always. Have you cooled on Ryfors? Thought I remember you being a little higher on him before.

Is it this year of bust for Otto Raddy and Katchouk?

Fort Gabe is where it's at!

I think I was too high on him initially. I originally had a Misc. Thought saying he was only in the C column until he proved himself in Syracuse, but after a month or so of thinking about it I took it out (I've been sitting on this post for most of the playoffs). I still like him, but there's probably still going to be an adjustment playing on a smaller size rink which he may or may not make.

I would say this is it for Raddysh and Katchouk. They were drafted with higher natural talent levels than Somppi and clearly showed mastery of the AHL level this season. There's never going to be a greater opportunity, and need, for Raddysh and Katchouk to start solidifying roster roles. They don't need to play 82 games, or even 41 games for that matter, this coming season, but they need to show they belong IMO. Of note, Corey Pronman (The Athletic prospect writer) had mentioned Raddysh and Katchouk as intriguing prospect options for Seattle to consider yesterday. I doubt we lose them in the expansion draft, but he was only including players he projected to be in top half of NHL lineups (Top 6 forwards) in the future. I don't know about that for both of them, but they really looked good this year. I could see Katchouk as a complementary piece to Point and Kucherov if Barre-Boulet leaves something to be desired. Somppi doesn't need to make the NHL this year, but I want to see him and Ryfors be the best forwards for Syracuse this coming season, otherwise I am going to drop Somppi like a rock in the midseason assessment.

Yes, Fortier! I know we've been over him before, but he lacked something in offensive creativity. He was only a rookie, so he still has time to progress like Somppi has.

Rangsey liked this.

Jul. 19, 2021 at 1:14 a.m.

Florida_Man_Maroon

Joined: Jul. 2019

Posts: 1,727

Likes: 918

Quoting: CoopsTroops

Something else that caught my eye was the fact that Goncalves and Finley are in different tiers, with Goncalves being higher. We obviously traded quite a bit to go an get Finley. Do you think that could end up being a mistake? How has Finley’s development gone so far? I know he’s only been in the lightning system for a year (a COVID year) but what has he shown in that time that would suggest Goncalves is on a better track to the NHL than Finley is?

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Jul. 19, 2021 at 1:33 a.m.

CoopsTroops

Thread Starter

Rutta 4ever

Joined: Sep. 2020

Posts: 4,539

Likes: 3,914

Quoting: Florida_Man_Maroon

Firstly, Goncalves is over a year and a half older. Finley was one of the youngest in last year's draft class, and Goncalves was drafted as an overager after not being drafted his first draft year. So, Goncalves has more hockey under him at this point due to something Finley had no control over.

Both started the year with Syracuse before having to go back to their WHL teams. Finley played 2 games to Goncalves' 1. Finley was invisible his 2 games as the 3rd line center and Goncalves was thrown into the 2LW spot and immediately looked like the best player outside of the Katchouk/Somppi/Raddysh line.

Goncalves also had a dominant WHL season as his teams lead center. He later returned for another game after the WHL season ended to play the 2RW spot, but looked a little less stellar. If I remember correctly, that was a bad game across the board for the entire team. I am curious what position they settle on him playing.
Finley picked up a season ending injury sometime after his 2 games in Syracuse and before his WHL season started, so he missed most of a season worth of development.
Finley is also 6'6". Big players are more prone to being boom or bust and require longer to find their games (think Foote).

Plainly speaking, was drafting Finley a mistake? Maybe.

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Jul. 19, 2021 at 2:35 p.m.

Florida_Man_Maroon

Joined: Jul. 2019

Posts: 1,727

Likes: 918

Quoting: CoopsTroops

Where are they playing next year? I assume Finley will go back to Spokane right? Is Goncalves ready for Syracuse full time?

Jul. 19, 2021 at 2:47 p.m.

CoopsTroops

Thread Starter

Rutta 4ever

Joined: Sep. 2020

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Quoting: Florida_Man_Maroon

Where are they playing next year? I assume Finley will go back to Spokane right? Is Goncalves ready for Syracuse full time?

Finley is required to return to his WHL team as per the NHL's agreement with the CHL, unless he's on the Lightning 23-man roster. Goncalves could return to his WHL as an overager, but is eligible for the AHL. I believe Goncalves will immediately be put in a Top 6 role with the Crunch next season.

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