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Has a calibre of goalie like Gibson ever been traded

Created by: DripBayless
Team: 2021-22 Edmonton Oilers
Initial Creation Date: Aug. 2, 2021
Published: Aug. 2, 2021
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
I really don't want to give up Broberg or Holloway. Yes I know there's cap dumps, however what if this trade happened at the deadline instead? Gibson has had 2 bad seasons given ANA is rebuilding. Could this be a buy low option? Effectively, Marody who projects as a bottom 6 F, Samorukov who projects to be a top 4 D, and a 1st rounder who is probably going to be a top 6 F or top 4 D. I think it's fair.
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
2$750,000
2$1,250,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
1$1,500,000
Trades
EDM
  1. Gibson, John
  2. 2022 5th round pick (TOR)
ANA
  1. Koskinen, Mikko
  2. Marody, Cooper [RFA Rights]
  3. Samorukov, Dmitri
  4. Turris, Kyle
  5. 2022 1st round pick (EDM)
Additional Details:
Koskinen & Turris to make the salary work. Only 1 year deals and could happen at the deadline. Or I wonder if they'd do this at start of the season if Edmonton agrees to pay most salary.
Buyouts
Retained Salary Transactions
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2022
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2023
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Logo of the EDM
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2024
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ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
22$81,500,000$80,721,968$669,339$907,500$778,032
Left WingCentreRight Wing
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$2,750,000$2,750,000
LW, RW
UFA - 3
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$12,500,000$12,500,000
C
UFA - 5
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$5,500,000$5,500,000
RW, LW
NMC
UFA - 7
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$5,125,000$5,125,000
LW, C
NMC
UFA - 8
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$8,500,000$8,500,000
C, LW
UFA - 4
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$1,175,000$1,175,000
RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$3,200,000$3,200,000
RW
UFA - 3
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$834,167$834,167 (Performance Bonus$57,500$58K)
C
RFA - 1
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$1,250,000$1,250,000
RW
RFA - 1
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$1,250,000$1,250,000
C, RW
UFA - 2
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$1,500,000$1,500,000
RW, LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$750,000$750,000
LW, RW
UFA - 1
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
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$5,600,000$5,600,000
LD
UFA - 1
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$4,500,000$4,500,000
RD
UFA - 3
Logo of the Anaheim Ducks
$6,400,000$6,400,000
G
M-NTC
UFA - 6
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$3,250,000$3,250,000
RD
UFA - 4
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$2,200,000$2,200,000
G
UFA - 2
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$5,538,462$5,538,462
LD
NMC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$863,333$863,333 (Performance Bonus$850,000$850K)
RD
RFA - 2
$1,500,000$1,500,000
LD/RD
UFA - 1
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$850,000$850,000
LW, C, RW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$4,167,000$4,167,000
LD
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$725,000$725,000
LD/RD
UFA - 1
Taxi Squad
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$1,250,000$1,250,000 ($125,000$125K$125,000$125K)
LD/RD
UFA - 1

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Aug. 2, 2021 at 11:01 p.m.
#1
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If Patrick Roy can be traded, anyone can be traded
Aug. 2, 2021 at 11:07 p.m.
#2
Pistol Pete
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They can’t afford him. They probably can’t even afford more than Stuart skinner as a second Goalie next year.
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Aug. 2, 2021 at 11:11 p.m.
#3
LosPatos
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Ducks don’t even consider
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Aug. 2, 2021 at 11:12 p.m.
#4
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It would require a lot to get Gibson out of Anaheim that's for sure. Also he has a NTC and he will be able to decide where he wants to play.
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Aug. 2, 2021 at 11:15 p.m.
#5
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Quoting: Zmach
They can’t afford him. They probably can’t even afford more than Stuart skinner as a second Goalie next year.


I literally made an ACGM showing we can afford him this year. Next year, if we can get rid of one of Kassian or Ceci, we'd also have room. This is assuming Nurse gets 8.5M and Puljujarvi gets 3M and the cap stays flat.

In 2023, when 4.25M of dead cap from Neal, Sekera, Lucic comes off the books, we can definitely afford him.
Aug. 2, 2021 at 11:19 p.m.
#6
MisstheWhalers
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Think they'd for sure want a better prospect then Marody.
Aug. 2, 2021 at 11:19 p.m.
#7
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Quoting: AntreDiAnaheim
Ducks don’t even consider


Quoting: PeterForsberg21
It would require a lot to get Gibson out of Anaheim that's for sure. Also he has a NTC and he will be able to decide where he wants to play.


Quoting: MisstheWhalers
Think they'd for sure want a better prospect then Marody.



I get he's got the NTC. But honestly, I think having McDavid/Draisaitl/Nurse can be a lure for some players. But there's also other reasons on not wanting to come here so I won't speculate.

My main question is, what is a fair value for Gibson? I looked at Ryan Miller to St. Louis, Luongo to Vancouver, Schneider to New Jersey, none of them seem equal to what a Gibson trade would look like. All of those trades are probably worse than this, just saying.

This is a guy who had good numbers 2 years ago but since then, hasn't posted good numbers. I get it he's on a rebuilding team.
Aug. 2, 2021 at 11:21 p.m.
#8
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Yes it’s possible, no it won’t happen for that return. Even tho it’s just one year cap dumps, teams aren’t just going to take those on to help the oilers. You have to add picks to have ANA or another team take turris and kosk on. Outside of that Gibson still holds a ton of value even with a couple of down seasons behind a really bad team. Will need to part with top prospects, not middle of the road ones.
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Aug. 2, 2021 at 11:24 p.m.
#9
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Quoting: vikhodush
Yes it’s possible, no it won’t happen for that return. Even tho it’s just one year cap dumps, teams aren’t just going to take those on to help the oilers. You have to add picks to have ANA or another team take turris and kosk on. Outside of that Gibson still holds a ton of value even with a couple of down seasons behind a really bad team. Will need to part with top prospects, not middle of the road ones.


If we upped the forward prospect to say Lavoie - that would be Lavoie, Samorukov, & a 1st - would that be enough? Then obviously something else to take on Kosk/Turris - most likely another 1st/2nd?
Aug. 2, 2021 at 11:27 p.m.
#10
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Quoting: DripBayless
If we upped the forward prospect to say Lavoie - that would be Lavoie, Samorukov, & a 1st - would that be enough? Then obviously something else to take on Kosk/Turris - most likely another 1st/2nd?


Would imagine swapping Lavoie and adding a first would be close. ANA seems extremely conservative with how they’ve handled the rebuild. I’m personally really not sure what kind of moves they’d be willing to make or how close they think they are
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Aug. 2, 2021 at 11:34 p.m.
#11
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If we trade Gibson at all, it won't be to take cap dumps back. What's left there, aside form the first, is two prospects who wouldn't be in the top two at their positions on our depth chart.

Another problem in evaluating Gibson's trade worth is the SIX-YEAR term he has left. So you're not trading for Semyon Varlamov here.

If Eichel and his huge cap hit for five years minus his injury risk is worth the equivalent of four first-round picks, then Gibson is worth three. Yamamoto, Bouchard and the 2022 first might be enough.
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Aug. 2, 2021 at 11:40 p.m.
#12
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Quoting: RoyBoy
If Patrick Roy can be traded, anyone can be traded


Roy wasn't traded voluntarily. He demanded a trade after being removed from a game and swore that he'd never play another game for the Montreal Canadiens again. There were also certain other differences between the pre-cap NHL 25 years ago and the environment today.
Aug. 2, 2021 at 11:42 p.m.
#13
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Quoting: DripBayless
If we upped the forward prospect to say Lavoie - that would be Lavoie, Samorukov, & a 1st - would that be enough? Then obviously something else to take on Kosk/Turris - most likely another 1st/2nd?


For every Koskinen or Turris, add a Holloway or Broberg to Yamamoto, Bouchard and the 2022 first. We don't need any additional firsts after 2022.
Aug. 3, 2021 at 12:26 a.m.
#14
LongtimeLeafsufferer
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Jacques Plante, Terry Sawchuk, Patrick Roy, Fleury, dozens more probably.
Aug. 3, 2021 at 2:32 a.m.
#15
mokumboi
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That is a trash offer. Not even close.
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Aug. 3, 2021 at 3:33 a.m.
#16
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Gibson trade makes absolutely no sense for the oilers.
For the oilers to make a serious run for the cup, they need their prospects on entry level salaries to contribute in the lineup. Bouchard, Broberg, Holloway, McLeod are going to be key pieces.
I'm gonna assume the ducks will ask for 2 of those guys plus picks for Gibson. He's a top tier goalie signed long term. There's no need to move him unless someone severely overpays. Plus their division rivals.
Aug. 3, 2021 at 11:24 a.m.
#17
Pistol Pete
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Quoting: Cbzblaze
Gibson trade makes absolutely no sense for the oilers.
For the oilers to make a serious run for the cup, they need their prospects on entry level salaries to contribute in the lineup. Bouchard, Broberg, Holloway, McLeod are going to be key pieces.
I'm gonna assume the ducks will ask for 2 of those guys plus picks for Gibson. He's a top tier goalie signed long term. There's no need to move him unless someone severely overpays. Plus their division rivals.


I think they would throw stupid money at merzlikins and Kuemper before they trade for gibson.
Aug. 3, 2021 at 11:26 a.m.
#18
Pistol Pete
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Quoting: DripBayless
I literally made an ACGM showing we can afford him this year. Next year, if we can get rid of one of Kassian or Ceci, we'd also have room. This is assuming Nurse gets 8.5M and Puljujarvi gets 3M and the cap stays flat.

In 2023, when 4.25M of dead cap from Neal, Sekera, Lucic comes off the books, we can definitely afford him.


Yes, but you see that with no intervention bridgeing puljujarvi again and resigning their current players they have about 3 million for a goalie.
Aug. 3, 2021 at 1:05 p.m.
#19
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I think the best move the Oilers could have made and I'm sure many of us were hoping for, was a deal with Seattle for acquiring either Kahkonen or Vanecek. They seem to be good young goalies and are on cheap contracts. But unfortunately that ship has sailed. Wouldn't even have to worry about moving Koskinen out either. That's the one where i think Holland dropped the ball.
Aug. 3, 2021 at 1:14 p.m.
#20
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It depends on what caliber you think Gibson is. Most people around here think he's a god, but if you actually look at his numbers you'd see that he has delivered below average results since 2018. When a guy is overpaid and underperforming, why would you send out assets for him?
Aug. 3, 2021 at 1:38 p.m.
#21
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Edited Aug. 4, 2021 at 7:34 a.m.
Among the top-45 goalies by 5v5 minutes or by GP since 2018, John Gibson ranks:

37th by save percentage (nhl.com)
34th by 5v5 save percentage (naturalstattrick.com)
33rd by high danger save percentage (naturalstattrick.com)

He's making $6.4M for the next 6 seasons. What exactly are you expecting from him over those seasons? You're trading for him as if he's a perennial Vezina candidate when if fact he's been no better than Mikko Koskinen*, whom you treat as a cap dump.

*In fact, Koskinen ranks ahead of Gibson in 2 of the 3 categories, it could be argued that he's been the better goalie. I can't isolate half a season of Evolving Hockey, but for the past 2 seasons (again, for the 45 most-played goalies only) ranked by GSAx, Koskinen ranks ahead of Gibson (22nd vs 33rd). (evolving-hockey.com)
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Aug. 3, 2021 at 1:47 p.m.
#22
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Quoting: OldNYIfan
If we trade Gibson at all, it won't be to take cap dumps back. What's left there, aside form the first, is two prospects who wouldn't be in the top two at their positions on our depth chart.

Another problem in evaluating Gibson's trade worth is the SIX-YEAR term he has left. So you're not trading for Semyon Varlamov here.

If Eichel and his huge cap hit for five years minus his injury risk is worth the equivalent of four first-round picks, then Gibson is worth three. Yamamoto, Bouchard and the 2022 first might be enough.


Lol.

Eichel is an elite player, Gibson is not. There's no comparison there.
Aug. 3, 2021 at 1:51 p.m.
#23
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Quoting: CD282
Lol.

Eichel is an elite player, Gibson is not. There's no comparison there.


Your premise that Eichel is still an elite player is wrong. Right now, he's an invalid, no more elite than Oscar Klefbom.
Aug. 3, 2021 at 2:57 p.m.
#24
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Quoting: OldNYIfan
Your premise that Eichel is still an elite player is wrong. Right now, he's an invalid, no more elite than Oscar Klefbom.


Sure, bud. Do you really think Seattle wouldn't have taken Eichel if he had been left unprotected? Because that's what happened with Klefbom.
Aug. 3, 2021 at 4:43 p.m.
#25
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Quoting: CD282
Sure, bud. Do you really think Seattle wouldn't have taken Eichel if he had been left unprotected? Because that's what happened with Klefbom.


Do you not understand the words "right now"?

There's no comparison there.
 
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