Lets Just Rebuild

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Quoting: Amakoue

I'm not panicking at all. I've thought about the potential outcomes of the next four years a lot. Realistically we're not going to be a competitive team into years three and four, which is how long you're going to have to convince Kaprizov to sign here long term over testing the market. Those situations often don't end well for the team under good circumstances, never mind the circumstances we're going to be under. There very realistically could come a time where we're forced to trade Kaprizov to avoid losing him for nothing. I've just accelerated the process.

All of these players may not be moved, and certainly we may not get these types of returns, but it's very likely that at least one of these players will be traded over the next four years.

Aug. 7, 2021 at 3:50 p.m.

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I’m just excited to see a Caerii authored ACGM. Personally, I don’t think the returns are all that ridiculous. The Dumba one feels a little too favorable for MIN, but Fiala seems right on the money and Kap seems pretty close (maybe even a tad light, but I’m prob just being a homer on his value).

Unfortunately I think a rebuild is pretty much reaching unavoidable status. Unless Rossi and Boldy come in and really rip it up, it seems like trying to remain competitive with 15M in dead cap is a bit foolish.

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Aug. 7, 2021 at 3:55 p.m.

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Quoting: drmantalban

My line of thinking was that Dumba is worth about a 1st+B prospect, and I treated Zaitsev more like a cap dump than a valuable asset because he has three years left at 4.5M. But given the players we're giving up, even with 15M in dead cap, we could easily take on Zaitsev for that term.

Fiala with term is worth exactly that in my opinion. I wouldn't ask for more and I wouldn't accept less.

Kap felt a little light to me as well, but given the shorter term of his contract, I wasn't going to ask for much more. A top 6 center prospect and a 1st is good for LA getting only three guaranteed years.

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Aug. 7, 2021 at 3:56 p.m.

tkecanuck341

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No thanks from LA. I'd rather keep the 1st and Turcotte and let Brown finish his career with the Kings.

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Aug. 7, 2021 at 4:00 p.m.

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Quoting: Caerii

Yeah I suppose that makes sense. We could def absorb Zaitsevs hit. In fact, going into a rebuild, I wouldn’t mind trying to farm a couple other anchor contracts for picks/prospects.

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Aug. 7, 2021 at 4:33 p.m.

Wildwinswhen

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The more I think about full rebuild like this, the more I like it. I don't think we'll have the cap space / players to win the cup in the next four years. So if that's the case let's get top dollar for our assets now rather than when we're forced to trade them. What matters is winning the cup and our current team won't do that.

I agree with the valuations above. I think you're hitting the mark and the right trading partners too.

All that being said, when this season starts I'm sure I'll still reserve my spot on the parade route just like every year.

Aug. 7, 2021 at 4:59 p.m.

sensibleguy

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Edited Aug. 7, 2021 at 5:24 p.m.

Quoting: Caerii

MIN
Zaitsev, Nikita
2022 1st round pick (OTT)
2022 2nd round pick (OTT)
Additional Details:
Zaitsev is for cap purposes.
The 1st is lottery protected, Ottawa would have the choice to defer to a 2023 unprotected 1st.
The 2nd is conditional, Ottawa gives their 2nd in whichever year they don't give their 1st.
OTT
Dumba, Matt

This is interesting, right up until you think Zaitsev is a cap dump. Yes Dumba is worth more than Zaitsev, but the picks are just silly, you're not getting a 1st, let alone a 1st and a 2nd.

So it's interesting, but Ottawa isn't touching that. Trading for Dumba to watch him walk as they begin their window of opportunity, and see him walk with two prime picks, not happening.

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Aug. 7, 2021 at 5:04 p.m.

#10

Devil

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I would like Fiala on the Devils, but not at this price and his asking price

Aug. 7, 2021 at 5:12 p.m.

#11

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Quoting: Devil1122

I would like Fiala on the Devils, but not at this price and his asking price

Interesting. If I was in the Devils position, I would think Fiala to play with Hischier at ~6x6.5 for this cost is a no brainer. I think this is great value for the price.

Aug. 7, 2021 at 5:57 p.m.

#12

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Quoting: sensibleguy

Cap dump wasn't the best term. I just meant in the sense that including his contract means you're only taking on 1.5M for the next two seasons, and you gain 4.5M (which could be used towards a Dumba extension) the next season. It doesn't take away any flexibility. He's not a no-value player that you're paying to get rid of. Dumba's value is still the same without Zaitsev in the deal.

I can understand Ottawa not wanting to trade a 1st and a 2nd though. I struggled deciding which team to send him to, and while Ottawa was one of the better fits, it still wasn't a great fit. But teams like Carolina or Philadelphia who were rumored to be interested and would have been great fits filled their needs elsewhere.

Aug. 7, 2021 at 5:59 p.m.

#13

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Quoting: Devil1122

I would like Fiala on the Devils, but not at this price and his asking price

What is his asking price? I haven't seen any numbers from any credible sources.

Aug. 7, 2021 at 6:09 p.m.

#14

sensibleguy

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Quoting: Caerii

It's a workable deal, just need to get a better gauge of the add to Zaitsev to get Dumba. Dumba is an upgrade over Zaitsev, IMO, just not as much as some might think. Zaitsev is paired with Chabot for his defence, while Dumba would be more about increasing offence to offset the loss of defence from losing Zaitsev.

I could even see a switch of pairings if they made the deal, moving Zub to Chabot's pair and playing Dumba on the 2nd pair but with a lot of minutes.

MIN
Zaitsev, Nikita
2022 2nd round pick (TBL)

OTT
Dumba, Matt

Aug. 7, 2021 at 6:12 p.m.

#15

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Quoting: sensibleguy

It's not workable in that way. We're not targeting Zaitsev to replace Dumba. He's only there to make the cap work for Ottawa. If he has more value than that to you, replace Zaitsev with another contract. The 1st being in there is non-negotiable, and it comes with protection so you're not giving up a top 10 pick.

Again, I understand if Ottawa isn't the right team for that, and that's fine, we'll hit up another team, but that's the value.

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Aug. 7, 2021 at 6:22 p.m.

#16

jnowariak

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Quoting: Caerii

What is his asking price? I haven't seen any numbers from any credible sources.

I think he’s asking for 7 or 8 mil with term. I don’t think 7 over 6 is crazy for him but it doesn’t make sense for the Wild.

Aug. 7, 2021 at 7:50 p.m.

#17

NHLfan10506

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Mercer looks to be a stud on both sides of puck.
But Fiala locked up long-term may be worth it for NJD.

Fair deal in my view.

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Aug. 7, 2021 at 8:05 p.m.

#18

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I wouldn't give up a 7th for Kaprizov, I don't want a guy playing cat and mouse with me to sign a contract and then probably will leave for Russia when the chance is presented.

Aug. 7, 2021 at 8:06 p.m.

#19

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Quoting: Kopitar11

I wouldn't give up a 7th for Kaprizov, I don't want a guy playing cat and mouse with me to sign a contract and then probably will leave for Russia when the chance is presented.

Yeah, you don't really understand the situation it would seem.

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Aug. 7, 2021 at 8:08 p.m.

#20

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Quoting: Caerii

Yeah, you don't really understand the situation it would seem.

It seems to me he's using KHL as leverage for his negotiations, and if that 13.5 mil dollar rumor is correct then I don't know what to say.

Aug. 7, 2021 at 8:09 p.m.

#21

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Quoting: Kopitar11

It seems to me he's using KHL as leverage for his negotiations, and if that 13.5 mil dollar rumor is correct then I don't know what to say.

Neither of these points are correct. He's not going back to the KHL and he's not asking for 13.5M. He just doesn't want to sign a long term contract at this time. He wants a bridge deal to build his value, which is very standard.

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Aug. 7, 2021 at 8:12 p.m.

#22

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Quoting: Caerii

In that case, Guerin should have signed him by now, but he hasn't so something is not correct.

Aug. 7, 2021 at 8:14 p.m.

#23

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Quoting: Kopitar11

In that case, Guerin should have signed him by now, but he hasn't so something is not correct.

What's happening is Guerin is trying to get him to sign to a longer term than Kaprizov is ready to sign right now. That's it. And these kind of negotiations happen every year. This is nothing new or out of the ordinary, and it doesn't mean Kaprizov is either going to get 13.5M or go back to the KHL.

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Aug. 7, 2021 at 8:17 p.m.

#24

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Quoting: Caerii

Well, I never said he was going, but he or his agent could be using that possibility for their better, however, if Guerin wants long term, it won't cost him less than 10-11 mil, which is a bit much in my opinion, he better give him a 3-4 year bridge deal at 8-9 mil, until the 14 mi dead cap from the buyouts is gone, then afterward sign him to a bigger, longer deal.

Aug. 7, 2021 at 8:32 p.m.

#25