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So long as Keith retires next season

Created by: BeterChiarelli
Team: 2022-23 Edmonton Oilers
Initial Creation Date: Aug. 18, 2021
Published: Aug. 18, 2021
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
The salary cap gets mildly nightmare-ish for the next 2-3 seasons depending on how the next deals for Bouchard, Broberg, Holloway, Konovalov, Lavoie, and Samorukov look, BUT if they can bridge Bouchard right up to his 26 y/o season before backing up the Brinks truck and run typical bridge deals for the other five, then things should work out.

Keith's -3.4M cap recapture 'penalty' is applied to the Salary cap in this example on a base $82.5M salary cap. Anticipating a rise to $83.5M before the cap starts going up in larger bounds. Expiring dead cap and the one million dollar raise account for Edmonton's salary cap coming back down next year. This year is all about taking advantage of having the highest cap in the league (worked for Tampa, didn't it?) and buying big on one year of Ondrej Palat and Parayko coming home to finish his career.

Damn Ken Holland and/or Dave Tippett for thinking having more than 3 RHD is a bad thing.

Oilers will need to find a buyer for Barrie at the draft such that Broberg can graduate to the NHL after the extra developmental year. Would the Hurricanes be interested if the ask was Honka and a pick?
Free Agent Signings
RESERVE LISTYEARSCAP HIT
3$825,000
3$925,000
2$750,000
3$825,000
3$925,000
3$825,000
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
1$800,000
2$800,000
2$950,000
2$850,000
3$3,500,000
2$800,000
2$850,000
1$1,750,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
1$5,500,000
7$8,000,000
Trades
EDM
  1. 2023 4th round pick (BUF)
BUF
  1. Kassian, Zack
  2. 2023 2nd round pick (EDM)
Buyouts
Retained Salary Transactions
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2022
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
2023
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the BUF
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
2024
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
22$85,900,000$85,713,500$896,000$1,432,500$186,500

Roster

Left WingCentreRight Wing
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$5,500,000$5,500,000
RW, LW
NMC
UFA - 6
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$12,500,000$12,500,000
C
NMC
UFA - 4
$5,500,000$5,500,000
LW, RW
UFA - 5
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$5,125,000$5,125,000
LW, C
NMC
UFA - 7
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$8,500,000$8,500,000
C, LW
M-NTC, NMC
UFA - 3
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$3,500,000$3,500,000
RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$2,750,000$2,750,000
LW, RW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$950,000$950,000
C
RFA - 1
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$1,750,000$1,750,000
RW
RFA - 2
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$500,000$500K)
LW, C
RFA - 2
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$1,250,000$1,250,000
C, RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$870,000$870,000
RW, C
RFA - 1
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$9,250,000$9,250,000
LD
NMC
UFA - 8
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$863,333$863,333 (Performance Bonus$850,000$850K)
RD
RFA - 1
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$2,200,000$2,200,000
G
UFA - 1
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$4,500,000$4,500,000
RD
UFA - 2
$8,000,000$8,000,000
RD
UFA - 8
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$842,500$842,500 (Performance Bonus$82,500$82K)
G
UFA - 1
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$850,000$850,000
LD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$3,250,000$3,250,000
RD
UFA - 3
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$925,000$925,000
LD/RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$5,538,462$5,538,462
LD
NMC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$850,000$850,000
LW, C, RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$4,167,000$4,167,000
LD
M-NTC
UFA - 1

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Aug. 18, 2021 at 2:35 p.m.
#1
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Maybe if the cap is so tight, don’t guy out and spend 5.5 million on a veteran and 8 million on another defenceman?
Aug. 18, 2021 at 2:39 p.m.
#2
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Why would Keith retire next season? Has he said that he would? I can't imagine he's going to want to give up $1.5M of guaranteed salary.
Aug. 18, 2021 at 2:48 p.m.
#3
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If Keith retires after this year doesn’t Chicago get hit with recapture penalty? The deal was signed before the cba that prevents those types of contracts. Would be the same as Vancouver got hit with Loungo even tho he retired with panthers.
Aug. 18, 2021 at 2:51 p.m.
#4
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Quoting: Timmah007
If Keith retires after this year doesn’t Chicago get hit with recapture penalty? The deal was signed before the cba that prevents those types of contracts. Would be the same as Vancouver got hit with Loungo even tho he retired with panthers.


Yes, only the team which received the "cap benefit" from the front-loaded contract gets hit with recapture. Since his current salary is below his cap hit, Edmonton wouldn't face any penalties.

However, I still don't see why Keith would retire and leave money on the table.
Aug. 18, 2021 at 2:53 p.m.
#5
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Quoting: Timmah007
If Keith retires after this year doesn’t Chicago get hit with recapture penalty? The deal was signed before the cba that prevents those types of contracts. Would be the same as Vancouver got hit with Loungo even tho he retired with panthers.


They do but Edmonton lands a negative $3.4M cap hit at the same time.

Quoting: Juiceman
Maybe if the cap is so tight, don’t guy out and spend 5.5 million on a veteran and 8 million on another defenceman?


Palat's a one-year deal that's absolutely small potatoes. Parayko long-term makes up for Holland selling low on Bear and gives the Oilers two bonafide RHD to win with over the remainder of Draisaitl's and McDavid's careers. Are the Oilers supposed to just run a shoestring defence forever?

Quoting: tkecanuck341
Why would Keith retire next season? Has he said that he would? I can't imagine he's going to want to give up $1.5M of guaranteed salary.


Might not be his choice. Could be injured, could fail his physical. For all we know he is planning on retiring next year and that's why Bowman made Holland pay out the nose for him. Can't just give a team a free $3.4M to spend. It's a thought experiment, how about you focus on the rest of the AGM instead?
Aug. 18, 2021 at 2:57 p.m.
#6
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Edited Aug. 18, 2021 at 3:03 p.m.
Quoting: BeterChiarelli
They do but Edmonton lands a negative $3.4M cap hit at the same time.

Might not be his choice. Could be injured, could fail his physical. For all we know he is planning on retiring next year and that's why Bowman made Holland pay out the nose for him. Can't just give a team a free $3.4M to spend. It's a thought experiment, how about you focus on the rest of the AGM instead?


Edmonton would not get hit with any cap recapture. Florida didn't get hit with recapture penalties when Luongo retired because they didn't receive any cap benefit while he played with them. Chicago is the only team that would be penalized if Keith retires early.

If he's injured and fails his physical, then he'll go to Robidas island and will finish up the contract on LTIR. He doesn't "retire" nor would there be recapture penalties for anyone.

Edit: Correction. Florida did receive some cap benefit while Luongo played with them since his salary was still higher than his cap hit when he was traded. However, the recapture penalty is significantly less than Vancouver's because it is mitigated by the few years that he did play for them at a lower salary. Edmonton never had Keith on the roster while he made more than his cap hit, so they wouldn't get hit with any recapture penalties.

Edit #2: Apologies, I misunderstood your premise. You're saying that Edmonton would get a recapture benefit and not a penalty if Keith retires early. That is correct. My mistake. Carry on.
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Aug. 18, 2021 at 3:02 p.m.
#7
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Quoting: tkecanuck341
Edmonton would not get hit with any cap recapture. Florida didn't get hit with recapture penalties when Luongo retired because they didn't receive any cap benefit while he played with them. Chicago is the only team that would be penalized if Keith retires early.

If he's injured and fails his physical, then he'll go to Robidas island and will finish up the contract on LTIR. He doesn't "retire" nor would there be recapture penalties for anyone.


https://puckpedia.com/salary-cap/answers/duncan-keith-potential-recapture

Turns out Edmonton does actually get the recapture. His situation is completely different from the Florida-Luongo one. Chicago is penalized and Edmonton is rewarded. Moving on.

Why would Edmonton put him on LTIR if they get a reward for not doing so? By the time next season is over Keith will have made $77.6M dollars, what does an extra $1.5M mean to him? Might as well do Edmonton a solid on the way out.
Aug. 18, 2021 at 3:04 p.m.
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Quoting: BeterChiarelli
They do but Edmonton lands a negative $3.4M cap hit at the same time.



Palat's a one-year deal that's absolutely small potatoes. Parayko long-term makes up for Holland selling low on Bear and gives the Oilers two bonafide RHD to win with over the remainder of Draisaitl's and McDavid's careers. Are the Oilers supposed to just run a shoestring defence forever?



Might not be his choice. Could be injured, could fail his physical. For all we know he is planning on retiring next year and that's why Bowman made Holland pay out the nose for him. Can't just give a team a free $3.4M to spend. It's a thought experiment, how about you focus on the rest of the AGM instead?


Failing a physical/injured would put him on LTIR, no recapture penalty for Chicago, no recapture bonus for Edm and a 1.5 mil pay day for Keith. Seems like everyone wins....
Aug. 18, 2021 at 3:07 p.m.
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Quoting: BeterChiarelli
https://puckpedia.com/salary-cap/answers/duncan-keith-potential-recapture

Turns out Edmonton does actually get the recapture. His situation is completely different from the Florida-Luongo one. Chicago is penalized and Edmonton is rewarded. Moving on.

Why would Edmonton put him on LTIR if they get a reward for not doing so? By the time next season is over Keith will have made $77.6M dollars, what does an extra $1.5M mean to him? Might as well do Edmonton a solid on the way out.


Yes, I edited my post when I realized you were talking about recapture benefit and not penalty.

Edmonton does not have a choice whether or not Keith retires. Edmonton doesn't have to put him on LTIR if they are otherwise under the cap. They can keep him on standard IR for the season and be subject to his full cap hit. However, the decision to retire is solely Keith's. If he's injured and can't play anyway, why not sit back and collect a $1.5M paycheck for doing nothing?

However, like you said this is a thought experiment which is less moot now that I realize you're talking about recapture benefit and not penalty. So carry on.
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Aug. 18, 2021 at 3:09 p.m.
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Quoting: Riley816
Failing a physical/injured would put him on LTIR, no recapture penalty for Chicago, no recapture bonus for Edm and a 1.5 mil pay day for Keith. Seems like everyone wins....


Edmonton can just ask him to retire instead of putting him on LTIR. He's made nearly $80M and wanted to be closer to home: I really don't think the money is the focal point here guys. As far as I'm concerned the list of favours Edmonton must do the player stop and end at "we acquired you so you could play closer to home".
Aug. 18, 2021 at 3:10 p.m.
#11
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Quoting: tkecanuck341
Yes, I edited my post when I realized you were talking about recapture benefit and not penalty.

Edmonton does not have a choice whether or not Keith retires. Edmonton doesn't have to put him on LTIR if they are otherwise under the cap. They can keep him on standard IR for the season and be subject to his full cap hit. However, the decision to retire is solely Keith's. If he's injured and can't play anyway, why not sit back and collect a $1.5M paycheck for doing nothing?

However, like you said this is a thought experiment which is less moot now that I realize you're talking about recapture benefit and not penalty. So carry on.


English as a second language is hard, sorry for the confusion!

That said, I'm absolutely certain Edmonton could ask Keith to retire before having to put him on LTIR.
Aug. 18, 2021 at 3:24 p.m.
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Quoting: BeterChiarelli
English as a second language is hard, sorry for the confusion!

That said, I'm absolutely certain Edmonton could ask Keith to retire before having to put him on LTIR.


They could ask, but it would be entirely up to him. I'm not sure why he would go for it. If he had played his entire career in Edmonton and not Chicago and wanted to do them a favor, I could maybe see it. However, he hasn't played a single game in Edmonton and doesn't owe them anything. I don't see him foregoing $1.5M of essentially free money just to do the Oilers a solid.
 
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