Forums/Armchair-GM

Opening Night - Prediction

Created by: drmantalban
Initial Creation Date: Aug. 16, 2021
Published: Aug. 19, 2021
Team: 2021-22 Minnesota Wild
Team Explanation
If it were my call, I wouldn’t start Rask in the 1C slot, but this is my prediction for opening night and doesn’t reflect my preferences.

Also if anyone actually reads this, how far away is Beckman from a consistent role? 2 years?
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
Kaprizov, Kirill4$8,500,000
Buyouts
  • Ryan Suter: $2,371,794
  • Zach Parise: $2,371,794
DRAFT YEARROUND 1ROUND 2ROUND 3ROUND 4ROUND 5ROUND 6ROUND 7
2022
MIN
MIN
MIN
MIN
MIN
SJS
MIN
2023
MIN
MIN
MIN
MIN
MIN
MIN
MIN
2024
MIN
MIN
MIN
MIN
MIN
MIN
MIN
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES BONUSESCAP SPACE
20$81,500,000$76,266,088$0$600,000$5,233,912
Left WingCenterRight Wing
MIN
Zuccarello, Mats
$6,000,000
RW, LW
NMC
UFA - 3
MIN
Rask, Victor
$4,000,000
C
UFA - 1
MIN
Kaprizov, Kirill
$8,500,000
LW, RW
UFA - 5
MIN
Foligno, Marcus
$3,100,000
LW, RW
UFA - 3
MIN
Eriksson Ek, Joel
$5,250,000
C
UFA - 8
MIN
Greenway, Jordan
$2,100,000
LW, RW
RFA - 1
MIN
Boldy, Matthew
$880,833
LW, RW
RFA - 2
MIN
Gaudreau, Frédérick
$1,200,000
C
UFA - 2
MIN
Fiala, Kevin
$5,100,000
LW, RW
RFA - 1
MIN
Sturm, Nico
$725,000
C
UFA - 1
MIN
Hartman, Ryan
$1,700,000
C, RW
UFA - 3
MIN
Bjugstad, Nick
$900,000
C, RW
UFA - 1
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
MIN
Goligoski, Alex
$5,000,000
LD/RD
NMC
UFA - 1
MIN
Spurgeon, Jared
$7,575,000
RD
NMC
UFA - 6
MIN
Talbot, Cam
$3,666,667
G
UFA - 2
MIN
Brodin, Jonas
$6,000,000
LD
NMC
UFA - 7
MIN
Dumba, Matt
$6,000,000
RD
NTC
UFA - 2
MIN
Kähkönen, Kaapo
$725,000
G
RFA - 1
MIN
Kulikov, Dmitry
$2,250,000
LD
NTC
UFA - 2
MIN
Merrill, Jon
$850,000
LD
UFA - 1

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Aug. 19 at 7:07 p.m.
#1
KFTW
Joined: Jul. 2018
Posts: 25,412
Likes: 11,747
Fiala on the 3rd line? Rask on the 1st?
Aug. 19 at 7:07 p.m.
#2
Thread Starter
Joined: May 2021
Posts: 1,103
Likes: 779
Quoting: csick
Fiala on the 3rd line? Rask on the 1st?


Skipped the description?
csick liked this.
Aug. 19 at 7:08 p.m.
#3
KFTW
Joined: Jul. 2018
Posts: 25,412
Likes: 11,747
Quoting: drmantalban
Skipped the description?


I still don’t think he’s the 1C.
Aug. 19 at 7:09 p.m.
#4
Thread Starter
Joined: May 2021
Posts: 1,103
Likes: 779
Quoting: csick
I still don’t think he’s the 1C.


I certainly hope not, but both Guerin and Evason have actively defended him in that role many times over. To the point where it’s seemingly not even lip service anymore, and they both genuinely believe that’s the spot for him.
csick liked this.
Aug. 19 at 7:15 p.m.
#5
Joined: Aug. 2020
Posts: 3,389
Likes: 2,172
Beckman is two years away from a regular role if all goes right. Think the Jason Zucker timeline for him. Zucker had a couple partial seasons before he secured a full time role, and then it was a couple more before he was in the top six full time. Beckman needs to work on his skating and he needs to spend a lot of time in the weight room and working on a pro training regimen.

I would say I expect him to make the team full time in some capacity in 2024-25, with the chance that he plays a decent amount of games in 2023-24.
csick and drmantalban liked this.
Aug. 19 at 7:21 p.m.
#6
Thread Starter
Joined: May 2021
Posts: 1,103
Likes: 779
Quoting: Caerii
Beckman is two years away from a regular role if all goes right. Think the Jason Zucker timeline for him. Zucker had a couple partial seasons before he secured a full time role, and then it was a couple more before he was in the top six full time. Beckman needs to work on his skating and he needs to spend a lot of time in the weight room and working on a pro training regimen.

I would say I expect him to make the team full time in some capacity in 2024-25, with the chance that he plays a decent amount of games in 2023-24.


That’s a far better answer than I anticipated. Much appreciated.

I think I’m gonna splurge for the AHL pass this year to try and catch more of their games and get a better sense of the pipeline.
Caerii liked this.
Aug. 19 at 7:23 p.m.
#7
Joined: Aug. 2020
Posts: 3,389
Likes: 2,172
I wouldn't be surprised to see Boldy start on the fourth line with Sturm and Bjugstad (or back in Iowa for that matter). I know Tim Army is a different coach than Dean Evason, but Army had Boldy on the fourth line in Iowa for the first few games, even after it was apparent he was probably the best forward on the team, and I expect the same kind of treatment from Evason. I'd be pretty disappointed if they didn't try anything different with the Kaprizov and Ek lines, but chances are you're correct that they won't change.
drmantalban liked this.
Aug. 19 at 7:28 p.m.
#8
Joined: Aug. 2020
Posts: 3,389
Likes: 2,172
Quoting: drmantalban
That’s a far better answer than I anticipated. Much appreciated.

I think I’m gonna splurge for the AHL pass this year to try and catch more of their games and get a better sense of the pipeline.


Iowa could be a fun team to watch again with some of the prospects that might be going through there in the next few years. Beckman, O'Rourke, Addison, Wallstedt, Khovanov could all channel through there. Dewar is a fun player to watch at that level, Jones is still developing there for now. If Boldy and Rossi start in Iowa it would obviously suck for Minnesota fans who want to see them in St. Paul, but they would be electric together in the AHL. Who knows, you might even see Khusnutdinov and Firstov filter through there at some point.
drmantalban liked this.
Aug. 19 at 7:29 p.m.
#9
Thread Starter
Joined: May 2021
Posts: 1,103
Likes: 779
Quoting: Caerii
I wouldn't be surprised to see Boldy start on the fourth line with Sturm and Bjugstad (or back in Iowa for that matter). I know Tim Army is a different coach than Dean Evason, but Army had Boldy on the fourth line in Iowa for the first few games, even after it was apparent he was probably the best forward on the team, and I expect the same kind of treatment from Evason. I'd be pretty disappointed if they didn't try anything different with the Kaprizov and Ek lines, but chances are you're correct that they won't change.


I didn’t realize that about Boldys deployment to the 4th in Iowa. Learning that kinda gives me the same impression that, for better or worse, it’s going to take some time before we see him rotating alongside Fiala. Now I’m starting to wonder if he even opens with the big club. Obviously he could have a great camp and force it, but I could also see someone like Dewar/Duhaime slotting into the 4th and Hartman bumps up by Fiala and Gaudreau.
Caerii liked this.
Aug. 19 at 7:35 p.m.
#10
Thread Starter
Joined: May 2021
Posts: 1,103
Likes: 779
Quoting: Caerii
Iowa could be a fun team to watch again with some of the prospects that might be going through there in the next few years. Beckman, O'Rourke, Addison, Wallstedt, Khovanov could all channel through there. Dewar is a fun player to watch at that level, Jones is still developing there for now. If Boldy and Rossi start in Iowa it would obviously suck for Minnesota fans who want to see them in St. Paul, but they would be electric together in the AHL. Who knows, you might even see Khusnutdinov and Firstov filter through there at some point.


Yeah I definitely need to get a better sense of all the players you listed. There’s only so much you can get from youtube.

Do you view/project O Rourke as being more likely to be a stable NHLer than D. Hunt? I don’t have a good sense on their values relative to each other.
Aug. 19 at 8:07 p.m.
#11
Joined: Aug. 2020
Posts: 3,389
Likes: 2,172
Quoting: drmantalban
Yeah I definitely need to get a better sense of all the players you listed. There’s only so much you can get from youtube.

Do you view/project O Rourke as being more likely to be a stable NHLer than D. Hunt? I don’t have a good sense on their values relative to each other.


A lot of people are really high on Hunt, so I must be missing something they see. I see a guy who can round out a bottom pair pretty well, kinda like a Cole level player to compare him to someone we'd know. More of a bottom pair, two-way guy that can play up in a pinch, and play almost any situation in a pinch, but probably won't be good enough to be a regular in any of those spots. A lot of people I've talked to view him as a potential top four guy though. As far as prospects go, I don't think he's more of a safe bet than the average guy.

O'Rourke on the other hand WILL be an NHL player, zero doubt in my mind, it's just a matter of what his upside is. That guy already has very little weakness in his game apart from from high end offense. But he is a very reliable defender and he's not afraid to get physical either, and he has the frame to do so. He could be anywhere from Carson Soucy-ish to Alex Pietrangelo-ish (though he likely doesn't reach the high end of that spectrum, offensively). He's one of those heart and soul, captain, warrior types.

So in my opinion, O'Rourke is definitely the safer and more reliable bet, and while Hunt has a bit more offensive prowess/skillset, O'Rourke is just the better player.
drmantalban liked this.
Aug. 19 at 8:41 p.m.
#12
Thread Starter
Joined: May 2021
Posts: 1,103
Likes: 779
Quoting: Caerii
A lot of people are really high on Hunt, so I must be missing something they see. I see a guy who can round out a bottom pair pretty well, kinda like a Cole level player to compare him to someone we'd know. More of a bottom pair, two-way guy that can play up in a pinch, and play almost any situation in a pinch, but probably won't be good enough to be a regular in any of those spots. A lot of people I've talked to view him as a potential top four guy though. As far as prospects go, I don't think he's more of a safe bet than the average guy.

O'Rourke on the other hand WILL be an NHL player, zero doubt in my mind, it's just a matter of what his upside is. That guy already has very little weakness in his game apart from from high end offense. But he is a very reliable defender and he's not afraid to get physical either, and he has the frame to do so. He could be anywhere from Carson Soucy-ish to Alex Pietrangelo-ish (though he likely doesn't reach the high end of that spectrum, offensively). He's one of those heart and soul, captain, warrior types.

So in my opinion, O'Rourke is definitely the safer and more reliable bet, and while Hunt has a bit more offensive prowess/skillset, O'Rourke is just the better player.


Thats pretty close to the impression I had from limited video and reading scouting reports, but I didn’t realize Hunt was more offensive or really even offensive at all. I had him categorized as a mostly stay at home guy.

I’ll watch for both of them this year. I’ve heard ROR may return to junior but I’m kinda hoping he sticks with Iowa so I can watch more.
Aug. 19 at 8:49 p.m.
#13
Joined: May 2016
Posts: 7,165
Likes: 3,002
Quoting: csick
I still don’t think he’s the 1C.


Neither does anyone else, but he's what MN has.

Quoting: csick
Fiala on the 3rd line? Rask on the 1st?


It's a lineup balance thing in this ACGM. If MN stacked one line with Fiala/JEE/Kaprizov (the 3 best FWDs) the rest of the lineup is a just bunch of stuff without much scoring.
-Zucc/Kaprizov have to carry Rask (again) o-zone line
- JEE line is the 2-way line, very effective last year
-Fiala gets to carry a line (hopefully with more help than last year) o-zone line
-4th line does d-zone/energy things.

My lines are a little different, with Sturm higher in the lineup and as a center. Either centering Zucc/Kaprizov or Fiala/Gaudreau. For me the lineup really depends on how camp goes for Boldy, Rossi, and Gaudreau. The rest of the FWDs are a know quantity and how they will fit where. I think MN adds another FWD as either a UFA, PTO, or waiver pickup before the season starts.

Beckman needs AHL time, he got a taste last year, but it was brief. He could be an injury callup this year; but he'd have to be riding an AHL hot streak, or many FWDs are out at once (injury, COVID, Olympics, etc).
drmantalban liked this.
Aug. 19 at 9:05 p.m.
#14
Joined: May 2016
Posts: 7,165
Likes: 3,002
Quoting: drmantalban
Thats pretty close to the impression I had from limited video and reading scouting reports, but I didn’t realize Hunt was more offensive or really even offensive at all. I had him categorized as a mostly stay at home guy.

I’ll watch for both of them this year. I’ve heard ROR may return to junior but I’m kinda hoping he sticks with Iowa so I can watch more.


There are pros and cons for ROR going back to the CHL. He'll be a 1D and get to play big minutes, all situations, and get more o-zone experience and the pros. The cons are he's playing against much lesser players overall and it's easy to pickup bad habits. In the AHL he'll get less ice time (3rd AHL pairing, maybe in and out of the pressbox), play in the Wild system, and see better players.

I thought Hunt was being sold as a lesser Brodin type of player? Low scoring, smooth skater, good transition game, not really physical but is in the right position all the time.
drmantalban liked this.
Aug. 19 at 9:45 p.m.
#15
Patient gm
Joined: Aug. 2020
Posts: 1,272
Likes: 673
I think the problem as fans is we see that rask isn’t great which is true - but management isn’t looking to make a 1 or two line team. They want the team to be more balanced and can roll 4 lines. That’s why it was more successful in the regular season when teams aren’t playing as tight on defense. I thought hartman was skating, shooting and responsible every game after moving to center and had much better chemistry with kk line and fiala’s line than the other centers, but it made them easier to defend from a matchup standpoint. It’s a weird thing trying to not have 1 overpowered line, 1 defensive line, 1 bleh line and 1 4th line.
drmantalban liked this.
Aug. 19 at 10:05 p.m.
#16
Joined: May 2016
Posts: 7,165
Likes: 3,002
Quoting: Lightman13
I think the problem as fans is we see that rask isn’t great which is true - but management isn’t looking to make a 1 or two line team. They want the team to be more balanced and can roll 4 lines. That’s why it was more successful in the regular season when teams aren’t playing as tight on defense. I thought hartman was skating, shooting and responsible every game after moving to center and had much better chemistry with kk line and fiala’s line than the other centers, but it made them easier to defend from a matchup standpoint. It’s a weird thing trying to not have 1 overpowered line, 1 defensive line, 1 bleh line and 1 4th line.


It's not a new thing for MN to run a most balanced top-9 as far as wings go. They've never really had the centers to pull it off though. The closest they ever came for centers was Staal, Koivu, and Haula/Hanzel.

Parise/Staal/Coyle
Zucker/Koivu/Granny
Nino/Haula (Hanzel)/Pommer

Every FWD except the 3C was 47p or higher that season (Parise only had 42p, but was on pace for 50p).
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