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CapFriendly Users Beat Evolving Hockey

Created by: NHLfan10506
Team: 2021-22 Custom Team
Initial Creation Date: Aug. 23, 2021
Published: Aug. 23, 2021
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
I compared actual contracts to two resources:

(a) Contract projections from Evolving Wild / Evolving Hockey ("EH")
(b) The average contracts from Capfiendly's Armchair GM ("CF") users between April and July prior to free agency period.

Overall, CF was more accurate in predicting contracts than EH.

For all signed contracts, EH was, on average, nearly 10% off the actual figure. CF figures were together 7% off. EH did a lot better in the top-25 and top-50 largest contracts, while CF did much better on the others. CF was more accurate for both UFAs and RFAs. Both did similarly with younger players, but most of CF's advantage came from older contracts. Both were about equal among d-men, but CF was closer with forwards.

Average error in AAV figure (+/- %)

......................EH....CF....
ALL...............9.5...7.0....

Top-50.........0.3...9.6...
Others.......13.6...3.7...

UFA..............5.6...1.9...
RFA..............9.9...7.1...

Age 18-26....8.1...7.8...
Age 27-30....8.7...3.7...
Age 31+.....16.3...9.1...

Forward....13.3...8.6...
Defense......3.0...3.7...

Below, in the lineup, are the top-25 signed deals (ranked by AAV) this off-season. I have shown the EH and CF figures for each. (Keep in mind, EH was more accurate with top-25 while CF was more accurate with the rest).

Congrats, Cap Friendly
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
78$81,500,000$449,631,302$0$0-$368,131,302
Left WingCentreRight Wing
ACTUAL, CONTRACT
$1,111,111$1,111,111
EVOLVING HOCKEY, PROJECTION
$2,222,222$2,222,222
CAP FRIENDLY, AVERAGE
$3,333,333$3,333,333
Logo of the Washington Capitals
$9,500,000$9,500,000
LW
M-NTC, NMC
UFA - 5
Ovechkin, Alex
$7,751,000$7,751,000
Ovechkin, Alex
$9,775,885$9,775,885
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$9,000,000$9,000,000
RD
UFA - 6
Makar, Cale
$10,140,000$10,140,000
Makar, Cale
$8,795,833$8,795,833
Logo of the New Jersey Devils
$9,000,000$9,000,000
RD
NMC
UFA - 7
Hamilton, Dougie
$8,479,000$8,479,000
Hamilton, Dougie
$8,397,159$8,397,159
Logo of the Dallas Stars
$8,450,000$8,450,000
LD/RD
UFA - 8
Heiskanen, Miro
$8,252,000$8,252,000
Heiskanen, Miro
$6,775,020$6,775,020
Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
$7,500,000$7,500,000
C, RW, LW
UFA - 1
Laine, Patrik
$4,677,000$4,677,000
Laine, Patrik
$6,903,571$6,903,571
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$7,000,000$7,000,000
LW, C
NMC
UFA - 8
Landeskog, Gabriel
$8,784,000$8,784,000
Landeskog, Gabriel
$7,531,957$7,531,957
Logo of the Florida Panthers
$6,500,000$6,500,000
RW
UFA - 3
Reinhart, Sam
$6,937,000$6,937,000
Reinhart, Sam
$6,458,824$6,458,824
Logo of the Boston Bruins
$6,000,000$6,000,000
LW
NMC
UFA - 4
Hall, Taylor
$7,187,000$7,187,000
Hall, Taylor
$6,523,140$6,523,140
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$5,875,000$5,875,000
RD
UFA - 4
Pionk, Neal
$5,976,000$5,976,000
Pionk, Neal
$5,584,615$5,584,615
Logo of the St. Louis Blues
$5,800,000$5,800,000
LW, RW, C
UFA - 4
Buchnevich, Pavel
$6,335,000$6,335,000
Buchnevich, Pavel
$5,248,077$5,248,077
Logo of the New York Islanders
$5,750,000$5,750,000
LD
UFA - 8
Pelech, Adam
$4,209,000$4,209,000
Pelech, Adam
$5,180,769$5,180,769
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$5,500,000$5,500,000
RW, LW
NMC
UFA - 7
Hyman, Zach
$6,850,000$6,850,000
Hyman, Zach
$4,962,777$4,962,777
Logo of the Los Angeles Kings
$5,500,000$5,500,000
C
NMC
UFA - 6
Danault, Phillip
$6,363,000$6,363,000
Danault, Phillip
$5,136,556$5,136,556
Logo of the Seattle Kraken
$5,500,000$5,500,000
LW
NMC
UFA - 5
Schwartz, Jaden
$4,704,000$4,704,000
Schwartz, Jaden
$4,684,713$4,684,713
Logo of the Vegas Golden Knights
$5,250,000$5,250,000
LD
M-NTC
UFA - 3
Martinez, Alec
$5,655,000$5,655,000
Martinez, Alec
$5,241,395$5,241,395
Logo of the Minnesota Wild
$5,250,000$5,250,000
C
UFA - 8
Eriksson Ek, Joel
$4,411,000$4,411,000
Eriksson Ek, Joel
$4,436,000$4,436,000
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$5,125,000$5,125,000
LW, C
NMC
UFA - 8
Nugent-Hopkins, Ryan
$8,215,000$8,215,000
Nugent-Hopkins, Ryan
$6,191,025$6,191,025
Logo of the Minnesota Wild
$5,100,000$5,100,000
RW, LW
UFA - 1
Fiala, Kevin
$6,331,000$6,331,000
Fiala, Kevin
$6,035,000$6,035,000
Logo of the Nashville Predators
$5,000,000$5,000,000
C, RW
UFA - 4
Granlund, Mikael
$5,771,000$5,771,000
Granlund, Mikael
$4,232,582$4,232,582
Logo of the Minnesota Wild
$5,000,000$5,000,000
LD/RD
NMC
UFA - 1
Goligoski, Alex
$4,801,000$4,801,000
Goligoski, Alex
$2,903,077$2,903,077
Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
$4,950,000$4,950,000
RW, LW
UFA - 5
Garland, Conor
$4,453,000$4,453,000
Garland, Conor
$4,888,000$4,888,000
Logo of the Calgary Flames
$4,900,000$4,900,000
RW, LW
NTC
UFA - 6
Coleman, Blake
$4,759,000$4,759,000
Coleman, Blake
$3,590,052$3,590,052
Logo of the Detroit Red Wings
$2,375,000$2,375,000
LW, RW
UFA - 2
Bertuzzi, Tyler
$3,324,000$3,324,000
Bertuzzi, Tyler
$4,443,182$4,443,182
Logo of the Philadelphia Flyers
$4,675,000$4,675,000
LD/RD
UFA - 2
Sanheim, Travis
$4,574,000$4,574,000
Sanheim, Travis
$3,837,500$3,837,500
Logo of the Seattle Kraken
$4,600,000$4,600,000
LD/RD
NTC
UFA - 5
Oleksiak, Jamie
$4,089,000$4,089,000
Oleksiak, Jamie
$3,080,927$3,080,927
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender

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Aug. 23, 2021 at 11:12 a.m.
#1
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Joined: May 2019
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Very interesting post -- nice one @NHLfan10506!
Cdn_bacon, NHLfan10506, Nhl_oilers and 4 others liked this.
Aug. 23, 2021 at 11:13 a.m.
#2
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Edited Aug. 27, 2022 at 3:10 p.m.
We are the most intelligent hockey minds in the universe. LETS GOOOOO

Just goes to show the fear of being called an idiot in your comment section is greater than any statistical modelling.
KeepUps15, villenash, NHLfan10506 and 7 others liked this.
Aug. 23, 2021 at 11:14 a.m.
#3
Bedard23
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The Pionk and Reinhart ones are all identical
Aug. 23, 2021 at 11:14 a.m.
#4
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Congrats, this is the greatest cap friendly post ever
Cdn_bacon, NHLfan10506, Nhl_oilers and 3 others liked this.
Aug. 23, 2021 at 11:18 a.m.
#5
Go Habs Go
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Joined: Mar. 2017
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Were EH projections generally too high? because that's what I normally find, (which is why I don't use it).

Nice post! 👍
OldNYIfan liked this.
Aug. 23, 2021 at 11:23 a.m.
#6
Bedard23
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What I learned from this post:


We’re better at predicting a players next contract
NHLfan10506 and Book_Hockey liked this.
Aug. 23, 2021 at 11:32 a.m.
#7
Daws is underrated
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Hehe, we're better
Aug. 23, 2021 at 11:32 a.m.
#8
Shibbal18
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How did you collect that data. You didnt read every post from April to July flushed cheeks flushed cheeks flushed cheeks flushed cheeks flushed cheeks
plus all the troll posts
Aug. 23, 2021 at 11:39 a.m.
#9
Hop on the Slaftrain
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I love it. Wish there was a possibility for the mods to pin posts in the ACGM section so it does not get buried.
OldNYIfan, KingLundqvist30, NHLfan10506 and 2 others liked this.
Aug. 23, 2021 at 11:45 a.m.
#10
Banned
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You clearly did a lot of work on this, so kudos.

My question is how did you factor term into this. For example, if EH was thinking Hall would come in at 7x7.1, they were way way more off than if they were saying 4x7.1. Likewise for CF.

EH absolutely stinks!
OldNYIfan and Cdn_bacon liked this.
Aug. 23, 2021 at 12:17 p.m.
#11
Speak of the Devil
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W of a post
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Aug. 23, 2021 at 12:41 p.m.
#12
Breadman likes Bread
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Joined: Jul. 2017
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Since we’re so good at predicting someone’s next contract, can we all predict Fox signs 700K x 8 Years?

In all seriousness, great post!
Book_Hockey and capsfan2121 liked this.
Aug. 23, 2021 at 1:08 p.m.
#13
Thread Starter
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Quoting: Shibbal18
How did you collect that data. You didnt read every post from April to July flushed cheeks flushed cheeks flushed cheeks flushed cheeks flushed cheeks
plus all the troll posts


I just crunched the numbers. There is a way to collect data more easily than one would think.

Quoting: SevenLeg
I love it. Wish there was a possibility for the mods to pin posts in the ACGM section so it does not get buried.


Agree. Mods, this ^
Feb. 15, 2022 at 7:41 p.m.
#14
Tintin over 1122
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This is the first time I’m seeing this and this is the best post of all time great job
Aug. 16, 2022 at 2:34 p.m.
#15
Alex Bump Truther
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Nice Post. Pretty cool to see
Aug. 16, 2022 at 3:36 p.m.
#16
Thread Starter
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Quoting: carts88
Nice Post. Pretty cool to see


Thanks.

Too bad the moderators now delete any time I post updated versions of these. But people want to see this stuff (see below). So will have to find a place to post this stuff.

Quoting: SevenLeg
I love it. Wish there was a possibility for the mods to pin posts in the ACGM section so it does not get buried.
 
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