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Carolina Hurricanes signed Andrei Svechnikov (8 Years / $7,750,000 AAV)

Was this a good signing?
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Aug. 26, 2021 at 9:54 p.m.
#101
Drover006
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Quoting: MelonVK
Marner played next to an insane Tavares that season.

Rantanen is good, but MacKinnon is something else.

Kucherov is playing on the most stacked team in the cap era.

You're proving in real time why point totals are terrible metrics for evaluating player skill.


So because you play with a good player your less skillful?
Aug. 27, 2021 at 12:11 a.m.
#102
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Great contract for everyone. Pettersson going to be pointing at this and expecting a bit more. 8x $8.5M
Aug. 27, 2021 at 12:54 a.m.
#103
Drover006
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Quoting: PrisonBull
Great contract for everyone. Pettersson going to be pointing at this and expecting a bit more. 8x $8.5M


8 years will get him more
Aug. 27, 2021 at 1:20 a.m.
#104
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Quoting: DroverD2
8 years will get him more


He’s probably gonna sign a 3 year “show me deal” except it’s the organization that has to show Pettersson that they are competent enough to win
HappyKampfers liked this.
Aug. 27, 2021 at 1:52 a.m.
#105
Hakuna Matata
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Quoting: PrisonBull
Great contract for everyone. Pettersson going to be pointing at this and expecting a bit more. 8x $8.5M


Nah Petey will do a Barzel deal then get more afterwards
Aug. 27, 2021 at 4:37 a.m.
#106
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Quoting: DroverD2
So because you play with a good player your less skillful?


When using points as your evaluation tool? Literally yes
Aug. 27, 2021 at 8:11 a.m.
#107
Drover006
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Quoting: MelonVK
When using points as your evaluation tool? Literally yes


But you name 3 players who are incredibly skillfull
Aug. 27, 2021 at 8:22 a.m.
#108
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Quoting: DroverD2
But you name 3 players who are incredibly skillfull


No, I responded to a post naming 3 very skilled players. But two of them aren't/weren't close to being the best players on their lines, but their point totals wouldn't tell you that.
Aug. 27, 2021 at 8:57 a.m.
#109
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Quoting: MelonVK
Yeah but I'm backing away from that. They're a decent scoring team, for sure. 11th is above average. But they're also deeper than most teams. You can check scoring share of Svech and Aho compared to McD and Draisaitl.

I personally don't care much about point totals, because they're usually more a reflection of teammates and situation rather than individual player skill. I was trying to appeal to things you cared about. Regardless of that, in terms of isolated scoring impacts, and especially offensively, Svech blows everyone else on the Canes out of the water. I brought receipts.

I don't know if you think this was some "gotcha", but I'm an adult, I can admit I made a poor point while I believe my overall one stands.

So, I've had a look at the raw data, and I can't agree. He is pretty good offensively but he isn't the best player on the team by any stretch, and his defensive numbers are really poor for a guy whose most common D partners are Slavin and Hamilton. The net results were largely average last year, which isn't really average when you consider his above average linemates.

5.98 CF/60 rel (2nd of 12 forwards)
2.99 CA/60 rel (12th)
1.01 CF% rel (3rd)

0.75 GF/60 rel (2nd)
0.30 GA/60 rel (9th)
3.37 GF% rel (5th)

0.36 xGF/60 rel (3rd)
0.14 xGA/60 rel (12th)
1.72 xGF% rel (6th)

1.55 HDCF/60 rel (4th)
-0.21 HDCA/60 rel (8th)
3.58 HDCF% rel (5th)

https://naturalstattrick.com

FYI Slavin and Hamilton had mostly stronger numbers without Svechnikov than with him: https://naturalstattrick.com

He's not (yet) the elite player you seem to think he is.
Aug. 27, 2021 at 9:39 a.m.
#110
flyersfan88
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this was a steal by the hurricanes. what a contract
Aug. 27, 2021 at 10:38 a.m.
#111
Lets Get Kraken
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Quoting: MrDinkiee
Marner = 20 points in 32 playoff games
Svech = 20 points in 26 playoff games


Plus, which player has made it past the first round. Svech.
Aug. 27, 2021 at 11:19 a.m.
#112
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Quoting: Random2152
Lmao that isn't a real thing. It's a pr spin.
Besides, the few instances we have where it was confirmed to have happened tend to backfire on the player. Connor McDavid for example took less and look how that's worked out.


12.5 cap hit is hardly taking "less" when you're the highest paid player in the league. But yes, it is a thing. Pasta, Bergeron, Marchand, Hall, McAvoy, Carlo, are all taking less than they could have made because the philosophy is winning over a paycheck. Maybe Waddell is doing the same in Carolina.
Aug. 27, 2021 at 12:05 p.m.
#113
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Quoting: CD282
So, I've had a look at the raw data, and I can't agree. He is pretty good offensively but he isn't the best player on the team by any stretch, and his defensive numbers are really poor for a guy whose most common D partners are Slavin and Hamilton. The net results were largely average last year, which isn't really average when you consider his above average linemates.

5.98 CF/60 rel (2nd of 12 forwards)
2.99 CA/60 rel (12th)
1.01 CF% rel (3rd)

0.75 GF/60 rel (2nd)
0.30 GA/60 rel (9th)
3.37 GF% rel (5th)

0.36 xGF/60 rel (3rd)
0.14 xGA/60 rel (12th)
1.72 xGF% rel (6th)

1.55 HDCF/60 rel (4th)
-0.21 HDCA/60 rel (8th)
3.58 HDCF% rel (5th)

https://naturalstattrick.com

FYI Slavin and Hamilton had mostly stronger numbers without Svechnikov than with him: https://naturalstattrick.com

He's not (yet) the elite player you seem to think he is.


I guess it just feels very cherry-picky to me that you ignore model outputs for individual stats. I have no idea if these are isolated numbers, or if they consider teammates or opposition, coaching effects or anything of the sort. I see no writeup anywhere. The numbers I posted considers all of that, including teammates - instead of you doing some napkin math and saying he played with Dougie and Slavin. The powerplay is also one of his greatest strengths, and it's completely ignored in this analysis for some reason.

As I see it, the one thing preventing Svechnikov from being seen as the Canes best player by a fair bit is Aho's shots bouncing into the opposition goal more frequently than Svechnikov's shots.
Aug. 27, 2021 at 1:15 p.m.
#114
Just Keep Swimming
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Quoting: Chopper02
12.5 cap hit is hardly taking "less" when you're the highest paid player in the league. But yes, it is a thing. Pasta, Bergeron, Marchand, Hall, McAvoy, Carlo, are all taking less than they could have made because the philosophy is winning over a paycheck. Maybe Waddell is doing the same in Carolina.


McDavid's contract was originally in the 13's, and he went back and took less to help the team after the fact. It is literally the definition of taking less.
And none of those contracts were anything other than market value when they signed them. The take less thing is all PR bull**** and you've fallen hook, line, and sinker for it.
Aug. 27, 2021 at 1:22 p.m.
#115
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Quoting: Random2152
McDavid's contract was originally in the 13's, and he went back and took less to help the team after the fact. It is literally the definition of taking less.
And none of those contracts were anything other than market value when they signed them. The take less thing is all PR bull**** and you've fallen hook, line, and sinker for it.


Market value for Pasta was in the 8s same with Marchand and Bergeron. They took significantly less. If McDavid truly wanted to take less to win now he would have taken 10.
Aug. 27, 2021 at 4:23 p.m.
#116
Not yet trannycided
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I'll jump on the bandwagon. Considering what most players of Svechnikov's caliber tend to get nowadays, this is a steal, both now and in the future.
Aug. 27, 2021 at 4:27 p.m.
#117
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Quoting: Random2152
McDavid's contract was originally in the 13's, and he went back and took less to help the team after the fact. It is literally the definition of taking less.
And none of those contracts were anything other than market value when they signed them. The take less thing is all PR bull**** and you've fallen hook, line, and sinker for it.


So he could’ve gotten 13 mil but he thought he was a nice guy and only took 12.5? Yeah such a team player
Aug. 27, 2021 at 6:57 p.m.
#118
Majors and minors
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a small little signing bonus in year one. Absolutely, way to go Carolina and Svechnikov.
Aug. 27, 2021 at 7:44 p.m.
#119
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Quoting: Juiceman
So he could’ve gotten 13 mil but he thought he was a nice guy and only took 12.5? Yeah such a team player


Fact is McDavid isn't a $12.5M or $15M player which was the maximum when he signed his current deal. He's +$18M player so he is incredibly underpaid right now.
Aug. 27, 2021 at 8:35 p.m.
#120
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Quoting: bhavikp27
Fact is McDavid isn't a $12.5M or $15M player which was the maximum when he signed his current deal. He's +$18M player so he is incredibly underpaid right now.


What does that make guys like MacKinnon. Does that mean he’s on a league minimum deal compared to what he should be getting? If players asked for 18 million then they have to accept the fact that their team isn’t gonna be very good
Aug. 27, 2021 at 8:38 p.m.
#121
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Quoting: Juiceman
What does that make guys like MacKinnon. Does that mean he’s on a league minimum deal compared to what he should be getting? If players asked for 18 million then they have to accept the fact that their team isn’t gonna be very good


I agree that it would be hard to build a contender if all of your stars were paid fairly but that's the player's value based on his level of play.
Aug. 27, 2021 at 8:50 p.m.
#122
Orr28
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Quoting: Hockyluv21
No, I'm not ragging on Marner at all. He's a really good player. I'm saying that there's no reason to talk about the Marner contract in a thread about the Svech deal.


And I'm telling you
Quoting: Hockyluv21
No, I'm not ragging on Marner at all. He's a really good player. I'm saying that there's no reason to talk about the Marner contract in a thread about the Svech deal.


You said it was Leaf fans that can't stop talking about their team. I was telling you it was an Islanders fan that initially brought him up, just to rag on him.
Aug. 30, 2021 at 9:24 a.m.
#123
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This is a fair deal, but I’m surprised that both the player and the team wanted to sign for 8 years now. Everyone agrees that he has the potential to be a superstar, but the fact is he’s not there yet. He looks like a natural goal scorer, but he’s never scored more than 24 goals in a season. He certainly has streaks of brilliance, but he can also disappear for several games, and he takes a lot of bad penalties. He’s only 21, so he certainly has the potential to get better and more consistent, but he hasn’t yet had the kind of season that shows he’s worthy of an elite level salary. I was expecting him to sign a shorter term deal for less per season to try to prove that he’s worth $9-10M AAV long term on his next contract, but $7.75M AVV seems high enough for the player to give up the chance to prove he’s worth more for the security of a longer term commitment, and low enough for the team to accept the risk that he won’t live up to his potential.

Maybe in a couple of years it’ll look like a steal, but at this stage of the player’s development it’s a fair deal. As a Hurricanes fan I’m glad they were able to get it done.
 
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