I think you have to take the picks, although the team could afford it for a 1 year deal.

Overall though, its a tough pill. KK was the 3rd overall, development time and now delivering, and the picks in return will be nowehere close as valuable. Considering theyre coming off a cup appearance, it leaves a big hole without much quality on the UFA market to spend that $$$.

Poehling/Bozak/Pacquette isnt a bad 3C and 4C, but its average. And if Drouin cant come back mentally, the LW look a bit poorer. Still a solid depth, but the loss of KK with an injury or loss to any of the top 9 and that bottom line looks pretty meh, (joining that 3rd pairing). KK, Poehling and Pacquette far outweigh Poehling, Bozak and Pacquette.

I don't think Montreal can afford not to match. If they want to push in the Atlantic, they will need a better 2C than Jake Evans. Kotka might not be the best 2C, but he's better than Evans. Then you're looking at a drastic overpay to get anyone like Dvorak, Eichel, Hertl, or any other center that could plug the gap. You're also losing the upside Kotka has. I would love Kotka in Carolina, and this move has been a stroke of beauty from Dundon and Waddell, but there's no reason for Montreal not to match. It's 1 year at 6 mil, then you get a long-term deal with a lower AAV before he needs to be qualified to negate it. Or you take him to arbitration (which I understand is difficult because he would just take his QO). It's a tough position, but there's no reason for Montreal to not retain Kotka

If I'm Bergevin, I think I'm thinking long and hard about this (Or he should be at least...). My first thought would be that at $6.1 mil, KK's trade value is non-existent. Second thought is "What kind of production/growth does he need to show to have either team consider qualifying him next year?". Say he goes out and improves from his 29 pts/82 game pace...How big of a step is it going to take to make it worth him to pay him just as much next year?

IMO, it's a stroke of genious by KK-If he has a so/so season and the Habs (Or Canes) think "F*ck...that's way too much cap space fo us to put towards him", he gets to walk! Or, alternatively, he gets qualified, and gets his $6.1 mil again next season. I've seen a bunch of posts here that say "Oh, just extend him to a lower AAV after you match (or, vice-versa if he ends up on the Canes)". Why would he do that? If either team chooses to not qualify him, he would become one of the youngest UFA's in recent history...guaranteed someone would come out and pay up for him.

Also pretty genious for the Canes...say they just use this as a "rental", and don't qualify him next year...A late 1st and late 3rd for a guy with that much upside is likely less than you'd pay at the deadline, and if the cap space works, why not?

Imagine being KK here though-If the Habs match, and he doesn't go on a tear, La Centre Bell will absolutely shred the poor fella apart.

End of the day, if I'm Bergevin, I'm probably matching, but yeah, there's a lot to think about here.

Why does Kotkaniemi extend in January? The market will have limited dollars for UFA, again. He would have to jump to 40+ points (which would make him an auto qualifier) just to get serious UFA consideration. Granted the pool will shallow some by next off-season but, the UFA pool is looking pretty good right now. It would be quite a gamble for him to test the market at his current production rate. Kotkaniemi would be the 20th best UFA right now and that is based purely on his age and potential.

Why does he extend? No idea. IMO, for him to sign an extension it'd have to be a pretty solid deal...otherwise why wouldn't you just go out and take your pick of the litter? Is there more money anywhere going to be available to him than the consistent qualifying offers that take him to UFA status a-la-Reinhart (up until he ended up getting out of Buffalo)?

Nice analysis Lenny. But I come to different conclusion. Habs don't match, but try to cobble together the cap and deal to acquire a one year centre.

Habs have he cap for Byron returning, and signing Bozak and Zajek to play centre (if they want to sign with Habs) instead of matching 6.1m KK.

Yeah, I don't disagree with you.

I think it all comes down to where the team thinks they're at...Like, yes, great run to the Finals, it was a lot of fun to watch, but are they a playoff team? IMO, in that division, you're immediately looking up at Tampa and Florida. Then you've got the Leafs and Bruins to fight with. Plus, the Metro is improved, so there's a decent chance that they'll snag up both of those wildcards. Tough choice.