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My estimates for possible petey contracts

Created by: The_Rocket
Team: 2021-22 Vancouver Canucks
Initial Creation Date: Aug. 31, 2021
Published: Aug. 31, 2021
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
I made a contract estimator on excel and ran different scenarios for what Pettersson’s contract might look like on different terms. Here are my assumptions:

A 3 year deal is 7.25 million AAV based on Barzal comparable + a little bit more due to Pettersson’s status and reputation.

UFA years (years 5-8 of any contract he signs) are worth $11.5 million per year in future dollars. That’s around ~$10.5 million in today’s dollars. I used players like draisaitl, point, Tavares, toews, courtourier, kopitar, and eichel to derive this number. His UFA years could be more expensive depending on inflation and how close to those players he and the Canucks believes he will be when he is 26 years old.

To estimate salary cap increase, I used 2 calculations. One assumes a 3% increase per year, the other assumes a flat $1 million increase per year. I estimate out 4 years (to
Pettersson’s first UFA year) to adjust his future dollars into real terms. Then I took the average of the two calculations for my model.

I assumed that Petey’s final RFA year (the 4th season from now) is worth his Qualifying Offer on a 3 year bridge at 7.25 million. The QO would be 120% of the AAV of the bridge deal (assuming backloaded), or $8.4 million. I weighted this value into all calculations of 4 years or more.

Finally, right before posting this, I Ran kaprizov’s rumoured $9x5 contract through the model using all the same assumptions. The only thing I changed was the number of RFA years (kaprizov only has 3 left, compared to Patterson’s 4). If we assume kaprizov is a comparable, then I found his new contract perfectly fits my model when adjusting for RFA years remaining.

So I plugged in all the different term options and here are my results.

Please note that my assumptions are based on a known value of a 3 year deal, so I’m not able to use the model to calculate 1 or 2 year deals.
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
8$9,600,000
CREATEDYEARSCAP HIT
Pettersson, Elias
7$9,300,000
Pettersson, Elias
6$8,900,000
Pettersson, Elias
5$8,400,000
Pettersson, Elias
4$7,600,000
Pettersson, Elias
3$7,250,000
Buyouts
Recapture Fees
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2022
Logo of the VAN
Logo of the WPG
Logo of the VAN
Logo of the VAN
Logo of the VAN
Logo of the VAN
2023
Logo of the VAN
Logo of the VAN
Logo of the VAN
Logo of the VAN
Logo of the VAN
Logo of the VAN
2024
Logo of the VAN
Logo of the VAN
Logo of the VAN
Logo of the VAN
Logo of the VAN
Logo of the VAN
Logo of the VAN
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
6$81,500,000$55,283,992$648,780$0$26,216,008
Left WingCentreRight Wing
Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
$9,600,000$9,600,000
C, LW
UFA - 3
Pettersson, Elias
$9,300,000$9,300,000
Pettersson, Elias
$8,900,000$8,900,000
Pettersson, Elias
$8,400,000$8,400,000
Pettersson, Elias
$7,600,000$7,600,000
Pettersson, Elias
$7,250,000$7,250,000
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
$5,250,000$5,250,000
C, LW, RW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
$4,125,000$4,125,000
C
UFA - 2
Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
$4,950,000$4,950,000
RW, LW
UFA - 5
Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
$3,250,000$3,250,000
LW
NTC
UFA - 3
Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
$2,650,000$2,650,000
C, LW
UFA - 3
Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
$5,875,000$5,875,000
RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
$1,125,000$1,125,000
RW, C
UFA - 1
Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
$825,000$825,000
RW, C
UFA - 1
Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
$1,225,000$1,225,000
LW, RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
$891,667$891,667 (Performance Bonus$200,000$200K)
LW, RW
RFA - 2
Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
$750,000$750,000
C, LW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
$3,000,000$3,000,000
RD
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
$750,000$750,000
LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
$725,000$725,000
LW, RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
$7,260,000$7,260,000
LD
NMC
UFA - 6
Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
$925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$850,000$850K)
LD
RFA - 1
Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
$6,000,000$6,000,000
RD
NTC
UFA - 3
Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
$800,000$800,000
LD/RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
$750,000$750,000
LD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
$2,500,000$2,500,000
RD
UFA - 4
Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
$5,000,000$5,000,000
G
UFA - 5
Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
$1,500,000$1,500,000 (Performance Bonus$1,500,000$2M)
G
NMC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
$850,000$850,000
RD
UFA - 2
Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
$750,000$750,000
RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
$3,500,000$3,500,000
LW, RW
M-NTC
UFA - 2

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Aug. 31, 2021 at 3:51 p.m.
#1
MK458
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Joined: Dec. 2017
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Nice work! I don't think Pettersson and his camp are all that interested in 7 or 8 year deals. Which is understandable seeing as salary cap projections could rise in a few years
The_Rocket and remowilliams liked this.
Aug. 31, 2021 at 4:01 p.m.
#2
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Nice job, appreciate the work.

With these numbers, it may be advantageous for the team to lock him up longer term. Although I'm sure Pettersson would prefer shorter term. If the number for Pettersson after a bridge is close to 11M (which is very well could be) it might make more sense to push extra hard for the extra term even with the flat cap.

I think between the two, Hughes is more likely to go long term.
The_Rocket liked this.
Aug. 31, 2021 at 4:07 p.m.
#3
Thread Starter
Judd Bracket ripoff
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Quoting: mk458
Nice work! I don't think Pettersson and his camp are all that interested in 7 or 8 year deals. Which is understandable seeing as salary cap projections could rise in a few years


Quoting: Canucks33
Nice job, appreciate the work.

With these numbers, it may be advantageous for the team to lock him up longer term. Although I'm sure Pettersson would prefer shorter term. If the number for Pettersson after a bridge is close to 11M (which is very well could be) it might make more sense to push extra hard for the extra term even with the flat cap.

I think between the two, Hughes is more likely to go long term.


Thanks! I had some time to kill so I threw this together. Ultimately I think petey will sign a bridge and bet on himself. If he can become a mackinnon/draisaitl/Matthews level player, he will be kicking himself for signing long term. If he stays where he’s at, we will still likely walk into a 10+ million AAV on his next deal. His only risk is regression, which seems quite unlikely with him.

Canucks should be really trying to go hard on an 8 year deal. A $10 million x 8 year contract should be on the table for sure
mk458 liked this.
Aug. 31, 2021 at 7:32 p.m.
#4
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Likes: 1,167
nice work.I think your bang on.Any guesses on when they may put ink on paper?
Aug. 31, 2021 at 7:37 p.m.
#5
Thread Starter
Judd Bracket ripoff
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Quoting: remowilliams
nice work.I think your bang on.Any guesses on when they may put ink on paper?


No clue unfortunately. Huge decision for Pettersson on what term he should take. If I was him, I would be shooting for 4 years. Walks him straight to UFA and gives him the opportunity to outperform projections. If the Canucks have regular playoff success and he breaks a point per game every year, he would have out played the projections in my model.

If I’m the Canucks, I’m trying to 8 years as best I can and lock him up

It’s going to be interesting to see what the outcome is
remowilliams liked this.
 
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