Forums/Armchair-GM

OS EP40

Created by: TMarch
Initial Creation Date: Sep. 8, 2021
Published: Sep. 8, 2021
Team: 2021-22 Detroit Red Wings
Team Explanation
See https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/2774831 for numbers on Hughes/EP contract levels.

Summary: If Hughes' deal is $7mm AAV or below, VAN can match up to ~10.2mm AAV for EP and still field a team (as Hughes' contract goes down, VAN's match level for EP goes up). To get to that second-level compensation, the OS team would not be able to offer more than 5 years on a 10.2 AAV contract (Compensation is based on the 5-year average, not the length of the contract). To get to a max contract length and keep out of the max compensation, teams would have off ~7.25mm x 7.

I don't believe any team would try to offer sheet at a max compensation level, even for EP. I believe most teams would consider a second-level compensation offer sheet using the 10.2AAVx5.

In the end, I think VAN gets a deal done with EP and Hughes to meet the finances. But there are a couple of teams (DET included, as shown below) that could change their trajectory quickly by signing EP to a second-level compensation offer sheet. With EP, DET would turn into a bubble playoff team immediately, so the picks would end up being mid-1st rounders, mid 2nd rounders, and a mid 3rd rounder.
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
Pettersson, Elias5$10,200,000
Offer Sheets
Offer sheet annual average (AAV) is calculated by dividing the contract value by the lower of: 1. The contract length, or 2. Five years
PLAYERAAVCOMPENSATION
Pettersson, Elias$10,200,000
2022 1st round pick
2022 2nd round pick
2022 3rd round pick
2023 1st round pick
Buyouts
  • Frans Nielsen: $4,250,000
  • Justin Abdelkader: $2,305,556
Retained Salary Transactions
  • Richard Pánik: $1,375,000 (50%)
DRAFT YEARROUND 1ROUND 2ROUND 3ROUND 4ROUND 5ROUND 6ROUND 7
2022
WSH
DET
COL
VGK
DET
DET
2023
DET
DET
DET
DET
DET
DET
2024
DET
DET
DET
DET
DET
DET
DET
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES BONUSESCAP SPACE
23$81,500,000$77,560,556$0$1,700,000$3,939,444
Left WingCenterRight Wing
DET
Vrána, Jakub
$5,250,000
LW
UFA - 3
Pettersson, Elias
$10,200,000
C
RFA - 3
DET
Zadina, Filip
$894,167
RW, LW
RFA - 1
DET
Bertuzzi, Tyler
$4,750,000
LW, RW
UFA - 2
DET
Larkin, Dylan
$6,100,000
C, LW
UFA - 2
DET
Rasmussen, Michael
$1,460,000
LW, C, RW
RFA - 3
DET
Fabbri, Robby
$2,950,000
LW, C
UFA - 1
DET
Suter, Pius
$3,250,000
C, LW
UFA - 2
DET
Namestnikov, Vladislav
$2,000,000
RW, LW, C
UFA - 1
DET
Erne, Adam
$2,100,000
LW, RW
UFA - 2
DET
Stephens, Mitchell
$737,500
C
RFA - 1
DET
Gagner, Sam
$850,000
C, RW
UFA - 1
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
DET
Leddy, Nick
$5,500,000
LD
UFA - 1
DET
Hronek, Filip
$4,400,000
RD
RFA - 3
DET
Greiss, Thomas
$3,600,000
G
UFA - 1
DET
DeKeyser, Danny
$5,000,000
LD
NTC
UFA - 1
DET
Seider, Moritz
$863,333
RD
RFA - 3
DET
Nedeljkovic, Alex
$3,000,000
G
UFA - 2
DET
Staal, Marc
$2,000,000
LD
NMC
UFA - 1
DET
Stecher, Troy
$1,700,000
RD
UFA - 1
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
DET
Lindström, Gustav
$850,000
RD
RFA - 2
DET
Oesterle, Jordan
$1,350,000
LD/RD
UFA - 2
DET
Rowney, Carter
$825,000
C, RW
UFA - 1

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Sep. 8, 2021 at 1:05 p.m.
#1
Joined: Sep. 2020
Posts: 11,957
Likes: 6,468
Ez Match
villenash liked this.
Sep. 8, 2021 at 1:08 p.m.
#2
Joined: Jun. 2019
Posts: 21,799
Likes: 11,236
Still a bottom 5 team in the league the next 2 years and both drafts have prospects with way higher ceilings than Pettersson
Gmonwy liked this.
Sep. 8, 2021 at 1:09 p.m.
#3
Thread Starter
Joined: Apr. 2017
Posts: 946
Likes: 357
Quoting: Gmonwy
Ez Match


As I stated in the other thread, if Hughes and EP play hard ball, VAN can't match anything at 10.2 for this season (and by playing hardball, Hughes would have to ask for above $7mm AAV). From a fan's perspective, 10.2 might not sound like anything huge, based on EP's play, but the salary cap (and VAN's poor management of it) make this a game of chicken. EP and Hughes could both forced their way out of VAN by keeping top demands.
aedoran liked this.
Sep. 8, 2021 at 1:13 p.m.
#4
Thread Starter
Joined: Apr. 2017
Posts: 946
Likes: 357
Quoting: Ledge_And_Dairy
Still a bottom 5 team in the league the next 2 years and both drafts have prospects with way higher ceilings than Pettersson


I don't think they are a bottom 5 team this year without EP, let alone with EP. With EP, Larkin becomes the 4th best #2 C in the league (Tavares, Draisatl, Stamkos/Point). Still light on the wing depth though. How does Seider, Leddy make the d better, and how does Hronek play with better forward talent would be keys.
aedoran liked this.
Sep. 8, 2021 at 1:17 p.m.
#5
Joined: Jun. 2019
Posts: 21,799
Likes: 11,236
Quoting: TMarch
I don't think they are a bottom 5 team this year without EP, let alone with EP. With EP, Larkin becomes the 4th best #2 C in the league (Tavares, Draisatl, Stamkos/Point). Still light on the wing depth though. How does Seider, Leddy make the d better, and how does Hronek play with better forward talent would be keys.


What 5 teams are below them? I would say Zona and Buffalo are the only guarantees. Columbus, Anaheim, and San Jose are the only other teams that might finish below them
Sep. 8, 2021 at 1:42 p.m.
#6
Joined: Apr. 2021
Posts: 9,236
Likes: 3,081
This would be a really bad idea for Detroit
Sep. 8, 2021 at 2:53 p.m.
#7
Joined: Oct. 2020
Posts: 2,216
Likes: 1,429
Offer sheeting Pettersson is probably one of the worst things Detroit could do. He's not worth the payment. This year's first rounder could easily be top 5, if not at least top 10. This team is not ready to compete on a year to year basis yet.
Sep. 8, 2021 at 3:50 p.m.
#8
Thread Starter
Joined: Apr. 2017
Posts: 946
Likes: 357
Quoting: Ledge_And_Dairy
What 5 teams are below them? I would say Zona and Buffalo are the only guarantees. Columbus, Anaheim, and San Jose are the only other teams that might finish below them


Right now I've got DET in the bottom 10. My bottom list is (worst is first):

ARI
BUF
ANA
SJS
SEA
CLB
NJD
DET
PHI
VAN

NJD could take a jump up, but I don't think Hamilton and Graves solve all their issues. PHI getting Risto makes them significantly worse, even with the Ellis trade. NSH is on the edge too, it's basically Forsberg, Josi, Ekholm and blah.
Sep. 8, 2021 at 9:36 p.m.
#9
Joined: Jun. 2019
Posts: 21,799
Likes: 11,236
Quoting: TMarch
Right now I've got DET in the bottom 10. My bottom list is (worst is first):

ARI
BUF
ANA
SJS
SEA
CLB
NJD
DET
PHI
VAN

NJD could take a jump up, but I don't think Hamilton and Graves solve all their issues. PHI getting Risto makes them significantly worse, even with the Ellis trade. NSH is on the edge too, it's basically Forsberg, Josi, Ekholm and blah.


The fact you have Philly in the bottom 10 really says a lot
Dec. 6, 2021 at 12:52 p.m.
#10
Thread Starter
Joined: Apr. 2017
Posts: 946
Likes: 357
Quoting: Ledge_And_Dairy
The fact you have Philly in the bottom 10 really says a lot


Bringing this back up to the top of the list as PHI just fired AV, and are a bottom 10 team (bottom 8 already), and might be bottom 5 by the new year. Unless Hart pulls out a .975 S%, this team might go 2-9 before 1/1.
Dec. 6, 2021 at 2:38 p.m.
#11
Joined: Jun. 2019
Posts: 21,799
Likes: 11,236
Quoting: TMarch
Bringing this back up to the top of the list as PHI just fired AV, and are a bottom 10 team (bottom 8 already), and might be bottom 5 by the new year. Unless Hart pulls out a .975 S%, this team might go 2-9 before 1/1.


They were also a top 10 team 2 weeks ago, this is usually what happens when you loose 8 in a row early in the season
Dec. 6, 2021 at 2:55 p.m.
#12
Thread Starter
Joined: Apr. 2017
Posts: 946
Likes: 357
Quoting: Ledge_And_Dairy
They were also a top 10 team 2 weeks ago, this is usually what happens when you loose 8 in a row early in the season


Or what happens when the league catches up to a team with no defense to speak of, an awful GAA (imagine where they'd be without Hart), no power play, and being one of the youngest teams in the league? Pretty easy to predict, and it's about to get worse...
 
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