The 1st round pick that Toronto sent to Columbus at the trade deadline (25th overall) is only two spots above the 1st round pick that Carolina sent to Nashville on draft day (27th overall), giving Carolina a good vantage point of what Columbus would do at 25.


IMO, Carolina would have drafted the same player as Columbus at 25th overall, Corson Ceulemans.


How did I reach this conclusion?


Well, the first two players that Carolina selected at the 2021 draft are both right-handed RDs, Scott Morrow and Aleksi Heimosalmi. With respect to the rankings of RDs at the 2021 draft, Brandt Clarke is far and away in the first tier all by himself. Then in the second tier, you've got Ceulemans all by himself. After that, there is a significant drop-off to the third tier of RDs comprising of Morrow and Heimosalmi. Carolina GM Don Waddell and Carolina's scouting staff would be well aware of this.


When the Canes saw that Ceulemans was off the board at 25th overall, they decided to trade the 27th overall to Nashville for two seconds immediately afterward. This behaviour suggests to me that they only wanted Ceulemans and if they didn't get him at 27, there was no longer an incentive to hang on to the pick when the next best RD would be available in the second round.


After securing Ceulemans at 25th overall, Carolina would still make the same trade with Nashville involving the 27th overall pick and the 2021 draft would proceed as normal.

In the end, Carolina would be left with Corson Ceulemans instead of Seth Jarvis from the Patrick Marleau trade with Toronto.