I would be surprised if Tkachuk isn't signed before the season starts.

1) Tkachuk will be signed before opening day
2) Brannstrom will not be sent down
3) Ridley Greig won’t stay to sit in the press box.
4) Ostapchuk will get sent down

Brannstrom will get sent down. They aren't going to play him on the right side, or sit him in the press box.

They can justify the short term inclusion of a player who otherwise will be sent back to Junior or the AHL after sitting in the press box for a week or two.

Zero chance Tkachuk is signed by day one of the season. A bridge deal signals death for Ottawa. The rumor now is that both sides see eye to eye on length and AAV, but cannot agree on terms like bonuses, salary structure, or trade protection. Tkachuk's insistence on those things won't change after a bridge. If anything, being one year away from UFA status will risk putting him in a position to ask for even more. This will drag out because the Senators simply cannot sign a bridge deal. We've been told for weeks how certain it was this would get done by training camp and now we're here.

Tkachuk is still under Sens NHL control for four years. So likely a bridge will be signed whether it is one, two or three years. Don't know why you say the Sens can't do it. It seems to be the way how good RFAs are structuring their contracts, to be UFAs as soon as possible. A bridge deal certainly doesn't signal death for Ottawa. If Brady leaves after four more years, the Sens just fill that roster position with the cap they have with his departure......like teams have been doing for years when a UFA departs.

RFA bridge deals are common, but they are usually prompted by the cap ceiling. They aren't usually prompted by spending limitations of a team. The Senators operate under a different dynamic than almost every other NHL team. They presumably have a very difficult owner, and despite the early FYOUS press release, he has since publicly pledged to not spend to the cap, and instead spend to the mid-range of the cap. This is going to handcuff them big time going forward.

A bridge deal does signal death, because when Brady is one arbitration session away from UFA status, he will have more leverage than he has now, not less. If they cannot do signing bonuses or a NMC now, it isn't reasonable to expect him to move off of those 3 years from now when he can take a 1 year arbitration ruling or sign his qualifying offer and head right to unrestricted free agency without giving Ottawa a single UFA year.

Josh Norris is one of their most important young players and will be positioned as their 1C this season. He has the same representation as Brady Tkachuk. That is another reason why the Senators cannot cave on Tkachuk. The Senators need to set boundaries about what they are willing to do with these non-arbitration RFAs.

Tkachuk will not start the season, and they will eventually compromise with something like a 5 year deal. The only leverage the Senators have against Tkachuk is that the longer he sits out, the more money he loses. While I think Matthew Tkachuk's comments about Brady being less aggressive than him and his father were calculated and deliberate. If there is any truth to the comments, having to sit out and watch the team lose their (slim) chance at playoffs might further convince Tkachuk to bury things and sign. Obviously, the Senators have to walk a fine line, because they cannot be so aggressive that they completely alienate Tkachuk - but they cannot sign a bridge deal.

The Senators are painted into a corner here. I don't remember a time when an RFA had as much leverage as Tkachuk has relative to the actual on ice value of the player. The Senators can't bridge him. They can't trade him (unless the return is something ridiculous like a 1 for 1 for a bigger young star). He is their most popular player with the fans. The team has a major divide with the local fan base. He seems to be the most important leader in the room.

Sorry, your logic is wrong. The Sens aren't painted into a corner any more than some RFAs. Matthew Tkachuk has an expiring bridge contract and a qualifying offer of 9m which walks him into UFA.
Trouba when he was with the Jets arranged his short term contracts so he could have UFA status after 4 years of his ELC ended.
There is no reason for the Sens to overpay Tkachuk. It certainly appears Brady could be angling for ASAP UFA status like his brother and there is nothing the Sens can do about it, if that's Brady's desire.

There is no reason for the Sens to spend to the cap. They have lots of expiring ELC contracts soon, and that's when they should be spending big. Chabot got 8m X 8 and good chance, their other soon to be RFAs will be offered big money too. Doesn't mean the players have to accept though.

Important players sign bridge contracts all the time. No reason to think just because Brady is one of many, how this would ruin the Sens.

"we all know that Tkachuk will not be on the opening night roster"


So, I was half right

Colin White's injury threw a wrench into us seeing a near perfect cap floor roster on the opening day of the season when Tkachuk still was unsigned. Dorion still got pretty close.

Tkachuk's contract will put Ottawa well above the cap floor. In terms of real money, it is difficult to know how much they will spend. They likely need to keep a chunk of their budget for performance bonuses. We also don't know if Colin White will be covered by insurance once he hits the threshold of games missed. That info hasn't come out yet. It seems like they might spend around 61 to 65 million in real dollars.

Hopefully they go out there and acquire another player to replace White in the lineup.