only issue i see is EDM would have no cap space for a back up.

Bc price isnt good. Even at 50% retained (5.25) he still is a cap dump. Theres no way EDM considers this.

I’d rather stick with smith and kosk than bring price in. Can’t rely on his health and having a tandem with 39 year old and an injury prone star can become problematic in a hurry. I’d give up more to get Allen than price but I can’t see any of the assets involved here being in play for Allen.

Oh for -

Price doesn't have much to back up his HOF case so it's unfortunate to see it stated so definitively like that especially when HOF goalie analysis is still a mess*

*see: Osgood, chris

His best season was a 37 GSAA which isn't even in the top 50 all time: 80s leafs legend mike palmateer and rolie melanson have posted better seasons

His hart trophy was given largely because of wins 😬

His career 108 GSAA is very good but mostly boosted by gp and there are about 10 goalies not in the Hall of Fame who have done better like Guy Hebert etc.

By Goals Saved Above Average / gp he's just good

Very good career all told but HOF 🤨

?

Price is about a 2.5M$ G right now (jake allen type overqualified backup) and could decline any moment so they should still give up assets with retention

Retained 50% with Poehling + Evans sounds ok ✔

At 5M$ it'd be like the Neal contract for them again

Neal has been a pretty good player for EDM

He had 41 pts in 84 games for the oilers

Significantly plus possession player also

Price probably wouldn't even be that good for EDM

From 2023-2026 his buyout cap hit is over 9mil and a savings of 1.5 mil
With Price history i would not risk him at half for free (See Seattle)

price was free and seattle passed. he has no value. habs have to add.

Edmonton keeps adding, like at least Nurse and an additional 1st with retention. Without retention you MIGHT get away with just adding Nurse. Price just carried a team that never should have been anywhere near the playoffs to the SCF, imagine what he could do with a team that was a contender! You may not like Price and\or think he is overpaid but what other goalie in the league can carry a 24th or 25th place team to the SCF? MAYBE 2 Vasilevskiy and Hellebuyck that is about it.

Price has some value at 50% retained just due to his playoff record, although many teams wouldn't even MAKE the playoffs with Price starting the majority of the regular season games, as he's been well below average in the regular season for 3 of the past 4 seasons. He certainly isn't getting these assets out of Edmonton.

Oilers wouldn't do Price for any of those assets straight up 1 for 1. Bad knee and big price tag....no thanks.

Is this a joke? Basically three 1st's for a 35-year-old Carey Price at $7M x 4??

I think most people forget what Montreal's D looked like in those 3 years. Outside of Petry and occasionally Weber we didn't have a very good D. Alzner, Schlemko, Benn, Mete, Kulak, Reilly were asked to play top pairing minutes until Chiarot arrived. None of them should have been anywhere near the top pairing and only Kulak proved to be capable of top 4 minutes.

Now that’s a leafs fan moment…. 😬 At this point are you gonna say Campbell is better than Price cuz he had a NHL record…?

You're valuing him as being able to perform superhuman feats NO MATTER WHAT HIS D LOOKS LIKE, though. I mean, check out his GSAx over the past 4 seasons - it's not good. You can't blame his defense.

Really?! If the goalie has no confidence in the D do you really think their numbers will be that good or more likely do you think his numbers would reflect the lack of confidence? It is hard to be motivated when you know the D sucks

He's being paid $10.5M to be motivated. Don't go blaming the defense for Price's lack of motivation. Besides, I already showed you that Price badly underperformed expected goals, so his defense was doing a FAR better job than he was.

You do realize that advanced stats are based on probabilities right and since we actually know what his stats were we don't need to use advanced stats. We can actually measure his GAA and GA/60. Using advanced stats for any player should just be used for the current season because we can not yet measure those stats so probability is the only way to measure them.

Go look at his save percentage then. That's the first thing I look at - and Price does NOT look good by that metric.

When I thought about the 50% retention of Price's salary issue it does not seem (to me) to work, because when you are retaining $5.25M that is essentially a good starting goalie's salary (maybe $1M) shy plus Montreal still has to add a starting goalie. So if they retained $5.25 and want to add a decent starting goalie at around $6M ($11.25M in total), they might as well keep Price ($10.25)and hope he has a few good years left in him.

For that reason I went with $3M retention on Price.

I want to be clear that I am not trying to be disrespectful to Price. I think Price has been a fantastic goalie and could still carry another team on a Cup run in the playoffs (especially a team that is not far off from winning the Cup who is willing to pay for that chance now and bite the bullet for the later years), but if you look at how many remaining years there are on the contract and the salary in a tight salary cap era that is when it gets difficult for Montreal.

Not many other people are suggesting other possible trade scenarios for Price, which is I was really curious about (not so much the debate about Price as a goaltender).

Maybe a Price to Colorado trade (if Kuemper does not work) or to Dallas (if they move money around) or to Chicago (after Fleury retires) or Vegas (if Lehner does not put them over the top and they can move money around). Washington? Pittsburgh??

Boston and Toronto are 2 teams that want to win right now and could use a clutch goalie, but I REALLY can't see any Habs GM sending Price to either of them. Same goes with Carolina after the Aho and Kotkaniemi "feuds".

Any other ideas out there from anyone else???

No you are right, by just looking at the regular season stats Price has not lived up to the contract and I wasn't arguing that. I was arguing that Price still has a great deal of value around the league. I don't like to try to gauge goalies at all because just about every stat is influenced on team play. Take Vasilevskiy for example he plays in front of one of the best teams in the league and puts up amazing numbers, however if you take him and place him on the Sabres and his numbers will drop significantly. This is because the Lightening have great possession numbers, get good goal support and rarely play in their own end of the ice however the Sabres have poor possession numbers and are often hemmed in their own end or are giving up odd man rushes. The other thing to note is Prices contract as with any contract was based on his previous years of play. No one could have predicted that his numbers would decrease so significantly over the next 4 seasons at the time it was signed. He was an all-world goalie coming off 3 amazing years in a row and only 30 at the time he signed the contract which perceivedly he would have had 5-6 more years at those numbers easily. However things took a significant change when MB decided to move Subban for Weber and change the direction of the team. I am not going to get into that can of worms but that is where Prices numbers started to drop. The team went from a possession and offensive team to a defensive minded team and tried to win more games by 1 goal than to try to dominate offensively.

Why were you arguing against GSAx before, and now you say all this? Do you not understand how GSAx works? It takes into account all the variables you wrote about, and many more. Here is the list from this year: https://evolving-hockey.com/stats/goalie_standard
Good goalies who play behind below-average defense corps (Hellebuyck, Smith) do BETTER on this kind of list due to facing a higher volume of high quality shots. Even so, Vasilevskiy does is one of the top goalies here because he STILL outperforms the great team in front of him. Carey Price actually DOES play behind one of the best defense corps in the league: of teh 43 goalies to play 1000+ minutes at 5v5 last year, he faced the 2nd fewest shots, 3rd fewest xGA/60 and the fewest HDSA/60 in the entire league. link here

So your analysis on Price and the Canadiens defense is entirely wrong.

Like I said before Advanced stats like GSAx use probabilities and not actual data to form predict how a player should preform in various circumstances. It's fine to use them when trying to gauge how a player will play in the next season or even beyond but to use probabilities to judge passed seasons is redundant IMO because we have measurable stats to do that. There are certain stats like WAR that are relevant though (I am not even going to pretend I know what Carey's WAR is cause I do not). I do not agree with saying that GSAx removes how the team in front of him is playing because every goal surrendered is influenced by how the team has played. Unless you only use stats based on breakaways or shootouts when it is literally 1 on 1 but that is not realistic either. I don't think there is a real measurable stat or advanced stat that can solely rely on how a goaltender preforms without taking into account the team in front of him. I have a hard time believing that NO GM in the league feels like Carey has no value outside of Montreal, especially when the majority of players around the league vote him as the best goalie in the NHL right now. All that being said we agree that Carey has not lived up to the 10.5 Mil contract but I just don't think you can look solely at his contract and injury history and say that he has no value when he literally just took a 24th or 25th ranked team in the NHL to the SCF. Rival GM's see that and say to themselves, Carey just did that with Montreal what can he do for a team like Colorado, Edmonton, Carolina, Florida or even Toronto? Teams that are true contenders but are missing a top end goalie to pull it all together. I don't think a single one of those GM's or any number of other Playoff Contending teams saying that Carey is not worth trading for strictly because of his contract or injury history. Seattle didn't take Carey because his contract was high, his injury was greatly exaggerated and most importantly they knew they were not cup contenders and were not going to be for at least the next 3 seasons so taking Carey made no sense.