That is a MASSIVE overpay for Fiala. Jarvis' ceiling >>>> Fiala. Suzuki? Maybe. Rees? Possibly... Someone like Ponoamarev or Tieksola? Sure... Jarvis is an instant no.

I like Jarvis too and agree that it’s probably too high a price for CAR to pull the trigger. But acting like a prospect is a guaranteed 30 goal scorer when he has yet to play an NHL game is a bit rich.

For the OP, I like CAR (along with LAK and NJD) as a possible destination for Fiala but I think you build the package around Suzuki and/or Bokk. I think they like Jarvis too much.

As for Greenway, I really don’t know where he’ll go. I lean MTL just because of the way that front office works or maybe NJD wants more size. I also think that value is slightly high for Greener but it wouldn’t surprise me if he fetched that.

At 18 years old, he was a PPG player in the AHL. Not the WHL, he was a PPG player in a league he isn't even eligible to play in.

Also, I never said he's a 30 goal scorer. I just said he'll be better than Fiala, who has never hit 25 goals in a season for the record.

I think the guy is gonna be a great player, but using last years AHL is a tenuous place to base your analysis since it didn’t have most of the players that make the league tough (since they were on the taxi squad).

As for Fiala’s goal scoring, fair point. I was using his scoring rate given neither was a full season. He’s a top line winger and that’s a pretty lofty set of expectations for a prospect.

Settle down!

I’m basing Jarvis’ trade value on the Athletic’s Scott Wheeler’s assessment as the 36th best prospect not in tbe AHL. But if you know better than he, so be it…

“36. Seth Jarvis, C/RW, 19 (Carolina Hurricanes — 13th overall, 2020)

Jarvis is another player that I considered ranking as high as 28th on this list. He’s closer to the eight players in front of him (like borderline interchangeable) than the eight behind him, for sure. He’s a lock to be a top-six player for Canada at the 2022 world juniors and should eventually be the kind of player the Hurricanes have clearly shown an affinity toward. Jarvis is a crafty, puck-dominant forward who possesses equal playmaking ability as a perimeter outside-in passer as he does manufacturing offense to higher traffic areas on the inner third. Add in slick hands, a natural finishing touch, easy NHL speed and a determined work ethic and there’s not a lot to poke holes in with Jarvis’ game. I’m still not convinced he’s got star power, but he’s got clear NHL talent.”

And that would be your first mistake. This article was seriously flawed in the rankings. Jarvis, at the very least, is a top 20 prospect, but for my money, he is a top 10 prospect in the league. I like Fiala, but giving up Jarvis is not worth it. And then the Canes giving up a second as well is rich. I would give Suzuki and Bokk up for Fiala years before I give up Jarvis. Jarvis, right now has a higher ceiling than Fiala. Jarvis, in his brief stint in the AHL, which he wasnt eligible to play in, 11 points in 9 games. The value in Fiala is just not the same as Jarvis.

Top 10 seems a lil aggressive. I mean you’re obviously entitled to your opinion but off the top of my head:

Laf
Caufield
Byfield
Zegras
Perfetti
Seider
Lundell
Byram
Drysdale
Raymond
Holtz
Stutzle
Rossi
Boldy
Newhook

That being said, I agree Carolina would pass on this trade. But I also think Canes fans undervalue Fiala. Stating that Jarvis will be better than Fiala due to a 9 game sample size in the A is pretty laughable.

Jarvis is a top 30 prospect not in the NHL. End of story, that’s a pretty great club to be in. A top line wing is a huge ask of any prospect though and it won’t be realized for a few years. Fiala for Jarvis is probably fair, and CAR still declines.

It’s also a very precarious projection using a small sample in a weakened AHL as the basis for his projection. I think he’ll be a great NHLer but not because he score in the A last year.

Jarvis is a great prospect but it is laughable to say he will project better than Fiala when professional scouts see his ceiling as roughly at or slightly lower than Fiala's once he’s in the NHL and up to speed. There has been no indication from them that they think he will be miles better than Fiala like some of you seem to be suggesting.

Furthermore, Carolina is very much in 'win now' mode. Your cup window is now. Not in the 3-5 year span it will take Jarvis to not only get in the NHL, but reach his peak prime too. A prospect that doesn't help them this year, next year, or possibly even 3 years from now doesn't help the Canes during what is most likely a 3 year window to start with the current roster as constructed. Fiala does, and fits into the current age group better than Jarvis ever will.

Don't think that Carolina rejects this so arbitrarily or out of hand. Teams trade the future potential for players of similar ilk or equal to or better impact than the prospect all the time, especially if that team is in a win now mindset and competing for a cup.

Fiala will still be a RFA after this season and Carolina would be getting him as he hits his prime years for their cup window. IMO, Carolina takes that and runs.

I would argue Fiala isn't a top line winger on a contender. Look at where he played in Nashville when they went to the cup final. Yes, he was far younger, but he doesn't have the scoring of a Forsberg, Svechnikov, Panarin etc. Is he THAT calibre of winger? I'd say no. I don't even know if I'd say he was as good as Teuvo Teravainen

Wheeler is a good source, but not someone I would trust over EPRinkside, who ranked Jarvis 17th among prospects that *shouldn't* be in the AHL (like age wise, because Jarvis does have AHL games under his belt)

I agree he’s on that bubble for a contender but I maintain he’s still a first line talent. Not every comparison needs to meet the “contender” criteria to make the team better and the Canes likely wouldn’t play him on the top line, which is why he’d be such a good fit there. I also really love the Turbo comp, he’s more of a playmaker than goal scorer but they both add a lot of offensive value. IDK if one is better/worse but I have yet to hear a reason why Fiala shouldn’t get that same contract.

The only major thing I can use to say Teuvo is better is that when Teravainen is healthy, he is a point per game player. I like Fiala, I think he'd be a very good middle six addition at the deadline if the Canes want to run deep, but Teravainen is far more responsible defensively, has a better shot (that he never seems to f**king use. I know this is meant to be about Fiala but I need to rant about this. Teravainen's shot is SO deadly and he never uses the damn thing. He was given this gift that would make fans adore him across the league and he's just like "You know what? I'm good") and Teravainen is the better pure passer. In my experience, Teravainen is what most people think Fiala is. Someone who will score 20+ goals and will score somewhere between 60-75 points in 82 games.