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Dom Luszczysyns standings projection

Created by: Byrr
Team: 2021-22 Custom Team
Initial Creation Date: Oct. 7, 2021
Published: Oct. 7, 2021
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
Projection for standings in the NHL from Dom. Millions in salary is position league wide.
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
32$81,500,000$528,000,000$0$0-$446,500,000
Left WingCentreRight Wing
Maple Leafs, Toronto
$2,000,000$2,000,000
Islanders, New York
$7,000,000$7,000,000
Lightning, Tampa Bay
$3,000,000$3,000,000
Penguins, Pittsburgh
$11,000,000$11,000,000
Bruins, Boston
$5,000,000$5,000,000
Rangers, New York
$12,000,000$12,000,000
Panthers, Florida
$8,000,000$8,000,000
Hurricanes, Carolina
$13,000,000$13,000,000
Canadiens, Montreal
$19,000,000$19,000,000
Capitals, Washington
$14,000,000$14,000,000
Red Wings, Detroit
$27,000,000$27,000,000
Devils, New Jersey
$20,000,000$20,000,000
Senators, Ottawa
$29,000,000$29,000,000
Flyers, Philly
$22,000,000$22,000,000
Sabres, Buffalo
$32,000,000$32,000,000
Blue Jackets, Columbus
$28,000,000$28,000,000
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
Knights, Vegas
$4,000,000$4,000,000
Avalanche, Colorado
$1,000,000$1,000,000
Oilers, Edmonton
$6,000,000$6,000,000
Wild, Minnesota
$9,000,000$9,000,000
Kraken, Seattle
$10,000,000$10,000,000
Jets, Winnipeg
$15,000,000$15,000,000
Flames, Calgary
$18,000,000$18,000,000
Stars, Dallas
$16,000,000$16,000,000
Canucks, Vancouver
$23,000,000$23,000,000
Blues, St Louis
$17,000,000$17,000,000
Sharks, San Jose
$25,000,000$25,000,000
Blackhawks, Chicago
$21,000,000$21,000,000
Kings, LA
$26,000,000$26,000,000
Predators, Nashville
$24,000,000$24,000,000
Ducks, Anaheim
$30,000,000$30,000,000
Coyotes, Arizona
$31,000,000$31,000,000

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Oct. 7, 2021 at 1:01 p.m.
#1
mondo
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So if Dom Luszcyzyzyzcyzcycyscysyycyzyzsysyzsyzsysyzsysn's standings are 100% accurate:

A1. Toronto
A2. Tampa
A3. Boston
M1. NY Isles
M2. Pittsburgh
M3. NY Rangers
W1. Florida
W2. Carolina

Toronto v. Carolina, NY Isles v. Florida, Tampa v. Boston, Pittsburgh v. NY Rangers

P1. Vegas
P2. Edmonton
P3. Seattle
C1. Colorado
C2. Minnesota
C3. Winnipeg
W1. Dallas
W2. St Louis

Colorado v. St Louis, Vegas v. Dallas, Edmonton v. Seattle, Minnesota v. Winnipeg
Byrr liked this.
Oct. 7, 2021 at 1:09 p.m.
#2
rpain
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Jeez is that Atlantic division stacked. Seems crazy to think of an Ovi-less post season. Nothing I disagree of too crazily other than thinking Vancouver keeps being underrated in these projections.

Projected playoff match-ups kind of look like a dud though unless there are some rivalries I'm unaware of.
Islesforthecup liked this.
Oct. 7, 2021 at 1:31 p.m.
#3
Islesforthecup
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Doms model sucks. He has a terrible success rate and just always overrates the leafs. Hes a fan that got a job with the athletic. Idk y people think his ratings are good when hes constantly wrong.
Oct. 7, 2021 at 1:35 p.m.
#4
Byrr
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Quoting: Islesforthecup
Doms model sucks. He has a terrible success rate and just always overrates the leafs. Hes a fan that got a job with the athletic. Idk y people think his ratings are good when hes constantly wrong.


Dom's models actually have a better success rate than most. The mistake you are making is thinking its a prediction rather than a projection. If everyone played to their potential and luck wasn't involved, this is what should happen....but thats not the NHL. Most models have swings averaging around 8 or 9 points, making up to 18 point swings possible between two teams. This is whats most likely to happen but just because something is most likely doesn't mean it will happen, especially in the NHL.
Oct. 7, 2021 at 1:43 p.m.
#5
Byrr
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Quoting: Islesforthecup
Doms model sucks. He has a terrible success rate and just always overrates the leafs. Hes a fan that got a job with the athletic. Idk y people think his ratings are good when hes constantly wrong.


For models results from last season:

E12lm0WXsAM_Erq?format=png&name=small

Your complaint about overrating the Leafs is specifically even more curious. Last year his model predicted them as finishing with 72 points, they finished with 77. I guess what I'm trying to say is, this is a you thing, not a problem with Dom or his model.
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Oct. 7, 2021 at 1:49 p.m.
#6
Islesforthecup
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Quoting: Byrr
Dom's models actually have a better success rate than most. The mistake you are making is thinking its a prediction rather than a projection. If everyone played to their potential and luck wasn't involved, this is what should happen....but thats not the NHL. Most models have swings averaging around 8 or 9 points, making up to 18 point swings possible between two teams. This is whats most likely to happen but just because something is most likely doesn't mean it will happen, especially in the NHL.


You obviously didnt see his record from the playoffs.
Oct. 7, 2021 at 1:51 p.m.
#7
Byrr
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Quoting: Islesforthecup
You obviously didnt see his record from the playoffs.


Is this a playoff projection?
Oct. 7, 2021 at 1:52 p.m.
#8
Islesforthecup
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Quoting: Byrr
For models results from last season:

E12lm0WXsAM_Erq?format=png&name=small

Your complaint about overrating the Leafs is specifically even more curious. Last year his model predicted them as finishing with 72 points, they finished with 77. I guess what I'm trying to say is, this is a you thing, not a problem with Dom or his model.


Again go look at his record from last playoffs. And just bc he underrated them once doesnt mean that he doesnt overrate them. I havent seen anyone else who has TOR in the top 2. If thats not overrating the leafs then idk what is.
Oct. 7, 2021 at 1:52 p.m.
#9
Islesforthecup
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Quoting: Byrr
Is this a playoff projection?


Whats your point?
Oct. 7, 2021 at 1:53 p.m.
#10
Islesforthecup
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Quoting: Byrr
For models results from last season:

E12lm0WXsAM_Erq?format=png&name=small

Your complaint about overrating the Leafs is specifically even more curious. Last year his model predicted them as finishing with 72 points, they finished with 77. I guess what I'm trying to say is, this is a you thing, not a problem with Dom or his model.


And just bc other models are worse doesnt mean that his is good. It just means that its better than the others.
Oct. 7, 2021 at 1:56 p.m.
#11
Byrr
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Quoting: Islesforthecup
Again go look at his record from last playoffs. And just bc he underrated them once doesnt mean that he doesnt overrate them. I havent seen anyone else who has TOR in the top 2. If thats not overrating the leafs then idk what is.


Hockeyviz actually had them winning the President's Trophy.
Oct. 7, 2021 at 1:58 p.m.
#12
Byrr
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Quoting: Islesforthecup
Whats your point?


The point is that hockey in the playoffs is a different game than the one played during the regular season. More physical play, more penalties let go, etc. You are complaining about a model projecting something other than what you are having a problem with. A model that was the most successful of them all last season while you are trying to say it was very inaccurate all while claiming he has a bias that was absent from his work last season. Like I said above, this seems more than a you problem than a problem with Dom or his model.
Oct. 7, 2021 at 2:00 p.m.
#13
JaredOfLondon
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Quoting: Islesforthecup
And just bc other models are worse doesnt mean that his is good. It just means that its better than the others.


you are so close to understanding how models actually work.
Oct. 7, 2021 at 2:02 p.m.
#14
JaredOfLondon
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Quoting: Byrr
The point is that hockey in the playoffs is a different game than the one played during the regular season. More physical play, more penalties let go, etc. You are complaining about a model projecting something other than what you are having a problem with. A model that was the most successful of them all last season while you are trying to say it was very inaccurate all while claiming he has a bias that was absent from his work last season. Like I said above, this seems more than a you problem than a problem with Dom or his model.


so many people think that these models are "bad" because they arnt perfect it's amazing. Like literally every single major sports betting guy is never right even 80% of the time because sports are wild an can hinge on a single play, injury or a hot goalie/whatever and yet people like that guy always whine and flail about because a team they dont like is higher than a team they do
Byrr liked this.
Oct. 7, 2021 at 2:05 p.m.
#15
NHLfan10506
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Here is a far better model: Evolving Wild (I hope)

(I just go with whoever has the Devils the highest...in this case, EW had them #2 in Metro)
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Oct. 7, 2021 at 2:07 p.m.
#16
Byrr
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Quoting: NHLfan10506
Here is a far better model: Evolving Wild (I hope)

(I just go with whoever has the Devils the highest...in this case, EW had them #2 in Metro)


I posted the Hockeyviz one as well:
https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/2824353
Oct. 7, 2021 at 2:09 p.m.
#17
Islesforthecup
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Quoting: JaredOfLondon
you are so close to understanding how models actually work.


Quoting: Byrr
The point is that hockey in the playoffs is a different game than the one played during the regular season. More physical play, more penalties let go, etc. You are complaining about a model projecting something other than what you are having a problem with. A model that was the most successful of them all last season while you are trying to say it was very inaccurate all while claiming he has a bias that was absent from his work last season. Like I said above, this seems more than a you problem than a problem with Dom or his model.


Np. We'll see if at the end of the season you still believe in doms failed model (of course you will bc he'll continue to overrate the leafs). But of course then like all leafs fans youll deny ever saying anything like this bc you guys have no accountability. Anyway i hope you have fun with another 1st round exit.
Oct. 7, 2021 at 2:11 p.m.
#18
mondo
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Quoting: Islesforthecup
Np. We'll see if at the end of the season you still believe in doms failed model (of course you will bc he'll continue to overrate the leafs). But of course then like all leafs fans youll deny ever saying anything like this bc you guys have no accountability. Anyway i hope you have fun with another 1st round exit.


hope you learn what a statistical model is some day
Oct. 7, 2021 at 2:12 p.m.
#19
Byrr
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Quoting: Islesforthecup
Np. We'll see if at the end of the season you still believe in doms failed model (of course you will bc he'll continue to overrate the leafs). But of course then like all leafs fans youll deny ever saying anything like this bc you guys have no accountability. Anyway i hope you have fun with another 1st round exit.


You have an odd obsession with the Leafs.
Oct. 7, 2021 at 2:13 p.m.
#20
JaredOfLondon
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Quoting: Islesforthecup
Np. We'll see if at the end of the season you still believe in doms failed model (of course you will bc he'll continue to overrate the leafs). But of course then like all leafs fans youll deny ever saying anything like this bc you guys have no accountability. Anyway i hope you have fun with another 1st round exit.


My goodness, you're so mad about this. Dude, just because you dont understand statistical models and dont like the leafs doesnt mean that the information is incorrect.
I also love the part where you dont blink for a second that he has the islanders 1st in their division, crazy eh?
Oct. 7, 2021 at 2:15 p.m.
#21
JaredOfLondon
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Quoting: Byrr
You have an odd obsession with the Leafs.


still mad about tavares
Byrr liked this.
Oct. 7, 2021 at 2:18 p.m.
#22
Byrr
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Quoting: JaredOfLondon
still mad about tavares


Its funny how much Islanders fan's hate the Leafs because of Tavares while Leafs fans barely know they exist.
Oct. 7, 2021 at 3:41 p.m.
#23
UpsideDownQue
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Quoting: Islesforthecup
Doms model sucks. He has a terrible success rate and just always overrates the leafs. Hes a fan that got a job with the athletic. Idk y people think his ratings are good when hes constantly wrong.


Dom's model has been one of the most accurate in past seasons
Oct. 7, 2021 at 3:44 p.m.
#24
UpsideDownQue
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I think the Avs get overrated a bit by these models. On offense I think the Avs got worse from last season, defense stayed about the same (depends on how Byram plays), and in goal I think at best Kuemper will be as good as Grubauer was last year, and at worst I think goaltending could be a real issue with injuries. I still think they will be 1st in the Central but I dont know about 1st in the league
 
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