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Habs free agent situation - what do you guys think?

Created by: F50marco
Team: 2016-17 Montreal Canadiens
Initial Creation Date: Mar. 7, 2017
Published: Mar. 7, 2017
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Trades
1.
MTL
    How much does Galchenyuk get in his new contract and what contract can he use as comparison?

    My guess:

    5.5M x 5 years or 6M x 8 years

    Comparisons:

    Forsberg - 6M x 6 years
    Monahan - 6.375M x 7 years
    Barkov - 5.9M x 6 years
    Scheifele - 6.125M x 8 years
    VGK
      Alex Galchenyuk
      2.
      MTL
        How much does he command next year?

        My guess:

        5M x 1 year : You may think that's high but he's proven to be worth that much. Even at his age, he's one of the better dman MTL has.

        3.5M x 2 years : Sacrifice lower cap for 1 extra year of term.
        VGK
          Andrei Markov
          3.
          MTL
            Sign him for cheaper but long term or higher for short term? Both have been reported as options he's willing to accept.

            My guess:

            4.5M x 8 years
            5.5M x 6 years
            7.5M x 4 Years


            Please don't say 5M x 2 years. If you don't think he'll sign something similar to the above listed options, then its simple, we don't resign him then. He'll get that money somewhere else. We all know this.
            VGK
              Alex Radulov
              4.
              MTL
                Does MTL lock him in long term? How much does he deserve? Decent season this year but more then one coach has pegged him as the bottom pairing guy so....

                My guess:

                Take a chance to hope to hit a home run:
                3.85M x 6 years
                Probably what he's looking for and wants to sign for:
                3.25M x 4 years
                What he should get given what he's proven thus far:
                2.5M x 2 years
                VGK
                  Nathan Beaulieu
                  Buyouts
                  Retained Salary Transactions
                  DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
                  2017
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                  2018
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                  2019
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                  ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
                  23$73,000,000$66,806,184$0$257,500$6,193,816
                  Left WingCentreRight Wing
                  $4,050,000$4,050,000
                  LW
                  UFA - 3
                  $912,500$912,500
                  C
                  UFA - 2
                  $5,750,000$5,750,000
                  RW
                  UFA - 1
                  $1,950,000$1,950,000
                  LW, RW
                  UFA - 1
                  $3,000,000$3,000,000
                  C
                  UFA - 2
                  $2,800,000$2,800,000
                  LW, C, RW
                  UFA - 1
                  $839,166$839,166 (Performance Bonus$257,500$258K)
                  LW, RW
                  UFA - 3
                  $3,900,000$3,900,000
                  C, RW
                  UFA - 6
                  $3,750,000$3,750,000
                  RW, LW
                  UFA - 5
                  $1,166,667$1,166,667
                  LW, RW
                  UFA - 3
                  $950,000$950,000
                  RW
                  UFA - 1
                  $640,000$640,000
                  C
                  UFA - 1
                  $1,200,000$1,200,000
                  C, RW
                  UFA - 2
                  $800,000$800,000
                  C, LW
                  UFA - 1
                  Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
                  $1,000,000$1,000,000
                  LD/RD
                  UFA - 1
                  $7,857,143$7,857,143
                  RD
                  UFA - 10
                  $6,500,000$6,500,000
                  G
                  M-NTC, NMC
                  UFA - 2
                  $5,750,000$5,750,000
                  LD
                  M-NTC
                  UFA - 1
                  $5,500,000$5,500,000
                  RD
                  NMC
                  UFA - 5
                  $950,000$950,000
                  G
                  UFA - 1
                  $2,982,375$2,982,375
                  LD
                  M-NTC
                  UFA - 2
                  $1,100,000$1,100,000
                  LD/RD
                  UFA - 3
                  $1,425,000$1,425,000
                  LD
                  UFA - 2

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                  Mar. 7, 2017 at 3:36 p.m.
                  #1
                  NateElder12
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                  seems high for Galchenyuk. Forsberg had two straight seasons over 60 points. I'd say something around Kucherov or maybe a little more. so $4.8-$5.5M at 5 years
                  Mar. 7, 2017 at 3:53 p.m.
                  #2
                  Habs93
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                  Edited Mar. 7, 2017 at 4:01 p.m.
                  Galchenyuk: between $5.25M for 4 years and $6M for 6 years;
                  Markov: max $4M for 1 year (Habs must sign a first line LHD next season);
                  Radulov: 3 years between $6M and $6.5M, 4 years between $5.75M and $6M, 5 years between $5.25M and $5.75M ( I hope resigning him for $5.75M for 4 years);
                  Beaulieu: I would offer him another bridge contract, 2 years between $2.5M and $2.75M, maybe 3 years for $2.85M each year. If he starts to improve again I even would give him
                  the $3.25M for 4 years
                  Mar. 7, 2017 at 3:58 p.m.
                  #3
                  TommyBPickles
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                  I would go 6 mil for 8 with Chucky, Radulov should be signed long term IMO and I think it would be more like 5 mil 6 years which I would do. Beaulieu is a hard one, 3.85 for 6 years is a lot for a guy who so far has only been good on the 3rd pairing. I would like to see beaulieu playing higher on the depth chart but he has been bad with weber and petry so I would probably go with 2 mil for 2 years. Markov only gets 5 mil if we have the space which we should. I think if we go out and sign a FA C (Jumbo Joe) markov gets what ever is left over most likely 3.5 mil and if he doesn't like it we have to let him walk which I do not think he would.
                  Mar. 7, 2017 at 4:05 p.m.
                  #4
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                  Quoting: NateElder12
                  seems high for Galchenyuk. Forsberg had two straight seasons over 60 points. I'd say something around Kucherov or maybe a little more. so $4.8-$5.5M at 5 years


                  Thing is Kucherov had no arbitration rights so he pretty much ahd to take what he could get. This is Galchenyuk's 3rd contract so he has arbitration rights. Anything under 5M isn't realistic, too many comparables to compare to.
                  Mar. 7, 2017 at 4:13 p.m.
                  #5
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                  Quoting: marc
                  Galchenyuk: between $5.25M for 4 years and $6M for 6 years;
                  Markov: max $4M for 1 year (Habs must sign a first line LHD next season);
                  Radulov: 3 years between $6M and $6.5M, 4 years between $5.75M and $6M, 5 years between $5.25M and $5.75M ( I hope resigning him for $5.75M for 4 years);
                  Beaulieu: I would offer him another bridge contract, 2 years between $2.5M and $2.75M, maybe 3 years for $2.85M each year. If he starts to improve again I even would give him
                  the $3.25M for 4 years


                  Quoting: TommyBPickles
                  I would go 6 mil for 8 with Chucky, Radulov should be signed long term IMO and I think it would be more like 5 mil 6 years which I would do. Beaulieu is a hard one, 3.85 for 6 years is a lot for a guy who so far has only been good on the 3rd pairing. I would like to see beaulieu playing higher on the depth chart but he has been bad with weber and petry so I would probably go with 2 mil for 2 years. Markov only gets 5 mil if we have the space which we should. I think if we go out and sign a FA C (Jumbo Joe) markov gets what ever is left over most likely 3.5 mil and if he doesn't like it we have to let him walk which I do not think he would.




                  I think you guys are estimating for a Radulov discount....... look at comparables and then adjust accordingly. if Radu signs for less than 5M, its for 8 years guaranteed. If its for 3 years of term, its minimum 7-7.5M. somehere in between is what last years UFA's got.

                  Take these guys as examples of a similar contract for Radulov:

                  Loui Eriksson 30 RW, LW Vancouver Canucks July 1, 2016 Standard 6 $36,000,000 $6,000,000
                  Andrew Ladd 30 LW New York Islanders July 1, 2016 Standard 7 $38,500,000 $5,500,000
                  Milan Lucic 28 LW Edmonton Oilers July 1, 2016 Standard 7 $42,000,000 $6,000,000
                  Kyle Okposo 28 RW Buffalo Sabres July 1, 2016 Standard 7 $42,000,000 $6,000,000
                  David Backes 32 C/RW Boston Bruins July 1, 2016 Standard 5 $30,000,000 $6,000,000
                  Alexander Steen 32 LW, C St. Louis Blues Sep 23, 2016 Standard 4 $23,000,000 $5,750,000
                  Mar. 7, 2017 at 4:15 p.m.
                  #6
                  Lets Go Blues
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                  Marco, where are you pulling all of these trade details from? Very informative.
                  Mar. 7, 2017 at 4:17 p.m.
                  #7
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                  Quoting: AK_tune
                  Marco, where are you pulling all of these trade details from? Very informative.


                  Ahem....

                  https://www.capfriendly.com/signings

                  laugh
                  Mar. 7, 2017 at 4:19 p.m.
                  #8
                  Lets Go Blues
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                  Quoting: F50marco
                  Quoting: AK_tune
                  Marco, where are you pulling all of these trade details from? Very informative.


                  Ahem....

                  https://www.capfriendly.com/signings

                  laugh


                  Cool site! Never seen it before, I'll have to check it out haha
                  Mar. 7, 2017 at 4:25 p.m.
                  #9
                  Habs93
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                  Marco, but most of these guys are overpaid. The problem is, the GM´s like to overpay at free agency. If we pay Radulov $7.25M for 3 years, what do we want to pay Pac 2019? $8.5M for 4 years?
                  This is the same problem as the Habs had with the Petry and Subban contracts. Both are overpayments and if the Habs would have signed Subban between $7.5M and $7.75M for 8 years, the
                  following contracts of the other top defenders wouldn´t rise that far (e.g. Buf, Burns).
                  Mar. 7, 2017 at 4:29 p.m.
                  #10
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                  Quoting: marc
                  Marco, but most of these guys are overpaid. The problem is, the GM´s like to overpay at free agency. If we pay Radulov $7.25M for 3 years, what do we want to pay Pac 2019? $8.5M for 4 years?
                  This is the same problem as the Habs had with the Petry and Subban contracts. Both are overpayments and if the Habs would have signed Subban between $7.5M and $7.75M for 8 years, the
                  following contracts of the other top defenders wouldn´t rise that far (e.g. Buf, Burns).


                  Of course their over payments. I don't get the question? Radulov is a UFA meaning a bidding war will only raise his price. He's easily one of MTL's best players this year and has put up decent numbers.

                  I'm not saying he deserves this money, I'm saying based on facts, this is what he will be worth and teams will pay him for that. If we don't like it we don't have to resign him. Problem is we already can't score goals. Imagine without Radu?
                  Mar. 7, 2017 at 4:41 p.m.
                  #11
                  Habs93
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                  Yes, he ist a UFA after this season. But if the Habs will pay Radulov this $7M for 3 or 4 years, they couldn´t resign Price or Pac, because they will get much higher payed contracts than Radulov.
                  I wouldn´t like to lose Radulov, but if the Habs are forced to pay $7M per year, I would say no.
                  Mar. 7, 2017 at 4:54 p.m.
                  #12
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                  Quoting: marc
                  Yes, he ist a UFA after this season. But if the Habs will pay Radulov this $7M for 3 or 4 years, they couldn´t resign Price or Pac, because they will get much higher payed contracts than Radulov.
                  I wouldn´t like to lose Radulov, but if the Habs are forced to pay $7M per year, I would say no.


                  Fair enough. I'm not disagreeing with you. The question was what would you do. You answered it. Although to be honest I would do 7x3 for Radu. Habs will have to not sign Markov and then let Plekanec go. Emelin as well. I'm ok with that. Price will get a 2-3M increase. Pacioretty is a question mark but even if he commands 7-8M, by that time Habs will have a bunch of other contracts off the books as well as a higher cap ceiling to deal with so Im not worried.

                  Signing Radu for high cap but short term is the best move IMO. Giving him an extra 1.25M per year so that we only have to sign him for 3 years is totally worth it.
                  Mar. 7, 2017 at 5:09 p.m.
                  #13
                  Habs93
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                  Quoting: F50marco


                  Fair enough. I'm not disagreeing with you. The question was what would you do. You answered it. Although to be honest I would do 7x3 for Radu. Habs will have to not sign Markov and then let Plekanec go. Emelin as well. I'm ok with that. Price will get a 2-3M increase. Pacioretty is a question mark but even if he commands 7-8M, by that time Habs will have a bunch of other contracts off the books as well as a higher cap ceiling to deal with so Im not worried.

                  Signing Radu for high cap but short term is the best move IMO. Giving him an extra 1.25M per year so that we only have to sign him for 3 years is totally worth it.


                  Marco, even if the Habs don´t resign Markov and let Plekanec and Emelin go, they have to pay the guys who will replace them. If the Habs want to content, they have
                  to sign a top 6 center, a second line left winger and a top 2 left hand defender. This will cost them at least $12M and with the rising of Galchenyuks contract, they will
                  have nearly no money after resigning Radulov for $7M.
                  Mar. 7, 2017 at 5:17 p.m.
                  #14
                  LongtimeLeafsufferer
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                  The other (cheaper) way to go is offer players like Galchenyuk and Beaulieu contracts that takes them right into UFA.
                  Emelin I think is 3 years....lets say 2.75m per year Maybe it light a fire under him, and into year 3 maybe he signs an extension maybe not, but he have 3 years to further evaluate him.
                  Galchenyuk. Is he 3 year or 4 years from being a UFA? 5m per year parties want to that change. Although look at what happened to Kadri a 6 year contract.....it seems to relax him and he's a better player this year.
                  Habs management might think Gally has more to give...How to make him a better player or is he what he is right now?
                  Markov, I like 1 year at 5m. And really I have no idea of Radulov could get. But in a "flat cap" era, who else is going to offer more than 6m? 6m X 5 years might be fair.
                  Mar. 7, 2017 at 9:16 p.m.
                  #15
                  Nick
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                  - Radulov = $6.5M/4-5 years
                  - Galchenyuk = $6M/8 years
                  - Beaulieu = $2.5M/2 years > Ideally trade him
                  Mar. 8, 2017 at 8:33 a.m.
                  #16
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                  Galchenyuk- $6M/7 years
                  Beaulieu- I'd take a chance $3-4M/4 years
                  Radulov- $6-7M/4-5 years

                  Dont forget Radulov loves playing in Montreal. He'd probably just go back to Russia if the habs don't sign
                   
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