Quoting: Db1899
Montreal’s top line was a top 5 line in the league - that is not my opinion, it is a fact. I already proved that to you.
Gallagher is a top 10 rw. Over the last 3 years only ovechkin and Matthews has scored at a higher rate at 5v5. Gallagher is elite at driving offense and increasing his teams rate of scoring. He’s also very good defensively. He is 100% a top 10 rw . There’s nothing you can say to prove otherwise.
I said Pettersson was a top 5 RW in the league in his 2nd season (19-20 season). He was top 3 among centers in wins above replacement (5.1 WAR) , above 90th percentile in both goals and primary assists and elite on the PP. there isn’t an argument for Pettersson not being top 5 in 19-20.
Let’s look at pettersson compared to Matthews from 2018-20.
Points
Pettersson: 132
Matthews: 153
WAR
Pettersson: 7.6
Matthews: 4.5
XWAR
Pettersson: 5.7
Matthews: 6.2
OFF
Pettersson: 27.4
Matthews : 22.5
XDEF
Pettersson: 1.0
Matthews: -1.7
Powerplay:
Pettersson: 6.8
Matthews: 5
Now let’s look at which player had the better RAPM
GF/60 (increasing teams rate of scoring) : Pettersson
XGF/60 : Matthews
CF/60: Matthews
XGA/60: Pettersson
CA/60 : Pettersson
So Matthews was better at generating quality scoring chances but Pettersson was better at increasing the rate his team scores goals and also better defensively. This isn’t to say Pettersson is better than Matthews, because he’s not but he was pretty damn close from 2018-20. Matthews is currently the 3rd best center in the league , Pettersson is at worst the 8th best center, there’s an argument for him anywhere in the 5-8 range.
Landeskog-MacKinnon-Rantanen
Marchand-Bergeron-Pastrnak
Palat-Point-Kucherov
Hyman-Matthews-Marner
Miller-Pettersson-Boeser
Gaudreau-Lindholm-Tkachuk
Pacioretty-Stephenson-Stone
Panarin-Strome-Buchnevich
anyone-McDavid-anyone (say it’s Draisaitl/Puljujarvi and it’s no contest, or even like Kassian/Puljujarvi)
DeBrincat-Strome/Toews/Suter-Kane
Like, how many of these lines are you trading for Montreal’s? And I didn’t even stack any of the lines (i.e. Zibby over Strome, Stamkos over Palat). Most of these lines have a guy that I wouldn’t trade individually for Montreal’s entire top line. I don’t know if the numbers you’re counting don’t rate finishing very highly, but if your top line combined is barely contributing 70 goals per season (19-20 pro-rated numbers, 57 combined goals in 198 games played combined rates out to 71 goals total for the line if they all play 82 games, it would only have been 52 total goals in 20-21), I think you’ve got an issue. 50-70 goals plus being good defensively/possession-wise is a solid 2nd line, not a top 5 line in the league. At the end of the day goals win hockey games, not shot attempts and possession.
Same deal for Pettersson, I like that he’s a good 2-way guy but 30 goals and under a point per game compared to 50+ goals and 95+ points is just no contest. Underlying numbers are great at predicting breakouts and slightly raising the value of guys to more realistic levels, but they aren’t the be-all, end-all. Like you’re not gonna claim Bunting is an elite player just because he has one of the best WAR% in the league.
Results matter. When Pettersson scores 40 goals and 95 points like he should be able to eventually, he’ll enter that top 8, maybe even top 5 (as Crosby fades), conversation and his defensive play might push him past someone like Eichel if they have similar point totals. But he’s not there yet.