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2021/22 NHL Season Discussion thread #2

Oct. 24, 2021 at 5:31 p.m.
#676
Go leafs go
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Quoting: capsfan2121
Ok the trade was William Karlsson and bertuzzi for Giroux and Dobson


Not bad.
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Oct. 24, 2021 at 5:32 p.m.
#677
Tintin over 1122
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Quoting: Saskleaf
Not bad.


I think I could have waited for more offers
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Oct. 24, 2021 at 5:37 p.m.
#678
Go leafs go
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Quoting: capsfan2121
I think I could have waited for more offers


It's fine, I think you got a good deal. I could send you Bennett in a different deal if you want him. Propose me something if you want and I'll try to get back to you as soon as I can (my schedule is pretty busy but I'm sure I can do it tonight).
Oct. 24, 2021 at 5:39 p.m.
#679
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Quoting: Saskleaf
It's fine, I think you got a good deal. I could send you Bennett in a different deal if you want him. Propose me something if you want and I'll try to get back to you as soon as I can (my schedule is pretty busy but I'm sure I can do it tonight).


Ok send me a Bennett so I can get idea of what you want
Oct. 24, 2021 at 5:39 p.m.
#680
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Quoting: Saskleaf
It's fine, I think you got a good deal. I could send you Bennett in a different deal if you want him. Propose me something if you want and I'll try to get back to you as soon as I can (my schedule is pretty busy but I'm sure I can do it tonight).


Then I will send one back
Oct. 24, 2021 at 5:40 p.m.
#681
Brace for the Storm
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https://twitter.com/gshardra/status/1452089510855073794?s=21

Words cannot describe how badly this made me laugh😂😂😂😂😂😂
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Oct. 24, 2021 at 5:49 p.m.
#682
Tintin over 1122
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https://russianmachineneverbreaks.com/2021/10/24/falling-tj-oshie-has-the-ball-control-of-an-nfl-running-back/#disqus_thread

How many times does this guy fall. This was the save of the year
Oct. 24, 2021 at 5:52 p.m.
#683
Speak of the Devil
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Mathieu Perrault has as many goals this season as the Leafs Big 4
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Oct. 24, 2021 at 6:02 p.m.
#684
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Quoting: KakkoForMauriceRichardAward
https://twitter.com/gshardra/status/1452089510855073794?s=21

Words cannot describe how badly this made me laugh😂😂😂😂😂😂

Quoting: capsfan2121
https://russianmachineneverbreaks.com/2021/10/24/falling-tj-oshie-has-the-ball-control-of-an-nfl-running-back/#disqus_thread

How many times does this guy fall. This was the save of the year

Guys please, the little twitter bird allows you to embed tweets and the chainlink (right after Bold/Italics/alignment) allows you to create a link, please use them so people can just see/click 😭😭


Funny Oshie video
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Oct. 24, 2021 at 6:03 p.m.
#685
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Quoting: Alfie11
Guys please, the little twitter bird allows you to embed tweets and the chainlink (right after Bold/Italics/alignment) allows you to create a link, please use them so people can just see/click 😭😭


Funny Oshie video

Thank you did not know about that
Oct. 24, 2021 at 6:03 p.m.
#686
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Quoting: Alfie11
You throw around top 5 and top 10 a lot without realizing how many better players/lines are ahead of guys (Montreal’s former top line as a top 5 line, Gallagher as a top 10 RW, this, etc. and all of those are strictly not true). Is Pettersson better than McDavid, MacKinnon, Crosby, Draisaitl, Matthews, Point, or Barkov? Cuz that’s 7 guys that I don’t think he’s better than, and I don’t think it’s close. Could legitimately throw guys like Eichel and Malkin into the mix if you’re talking about previous seasons, maybe even get to the guys like ROR, Barzal, Aho, Stamkos, Scheifele, Tavares, but this is that tier where I’d have him, MAYBE 10th that year. There’s an argument for Petey being a (barely) top 10 centre in 19-20. There’s no shot he was top 5, and he’s probably not top 10 now.


Montreal’s top line was a top 5 line in the league - that is not my opinion, it is a fact. I already proved that to you.

Gallagher is a top 10 rw. Over the last 3 years only ovechkin and Matthews has scored at a higher rate at 5v5. Gallagher is elite at driving offense and increasing his teams rate of scoring. He’s also very good defensively. He is 100% a top 10 rw . There’s nothing you can say to prove otherwise.

I said Pettersson was a top 5 RW in the league in his 2nd season (19-20 season). He was top 3 among centers in wins above replacement (5.1 WAR) , above 90th percentile in both goals and primary assists and elite on the PP. there isn’t an argument for Pettersson not being top 5 in 19-20.

Let’s look at pettersson compared to Matthews from 2018-20.

Points
Pettersson: 132
Matthews: 153

WAR
Pettersson: 7.6
Matthews: 4.5

XWAR
Pettersson: 5.7
Matthews: 6.2

OFF
Pettersson: 27.4
Matthews : 22.5

XDEF
Pettersson: 1.0
Matthews: -1.7

Powerplay:
Pettersson: 6.8
Matthews: 5

Now let’s look at which player had the better RAPM
GF/60 (increasing teams rate of scoring) : Pettersson

XGF/60 : Matthews
CF/60: Matthews

XGA/60: Pettersson
CA/60 : Pettersson

So Matthews was better at generating quality scoring chances but Pettersson was better at increasing the rate his team scores goals and also better defensively. This isn’t to say Pettersson is better than Matthews, because he’s not but he was pretty damn close from 2018-20. Matthews is currently the 3rd best center in the league , Pettersson is at worst the 8th best center in the league right now , there’s an argument for him anywhere in the 5-8 range.
Oct. 24, 2021 at 6:05 p.m.
#687
v5 CBJ GM
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Quoting: Saskleaf
Bertuzzi's a good player and he's only missing 9 games this year from all this covid vaccine stuff. I would have sent capfan2121 an offer if someone hadn't beaten me to it.


didnt he just get suspended without pay for not being vaxxed
Oct. 24, 2021 at 6:05 p.m.
#688
Tintin over 1122
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Quoting: Zuki9797
didnt he just get suspended without pay for not being vaxxed


Yes
Oct. 24, 2021 at 6:20 p.m.
#689
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Quoting: Db1899
Montreal’s top line was a top 5 line in the league - that is not my opinion, it is a fact. I already proved that to you.

Gallagher is a top 10 rw. Over the last 3 years only ovechkin and Matthews has scored at a higher rate at 5v5. Gallagher is elite at driving offense and increasing his teams rate of scoring. He’s also very good defensively. He is 100% a top 10 rw . There’s nothing you can say to prove otherwise.

I said Pettersson was a top 5 RW in the league in his 2nd season (19-20 season). He was top 3 among centers in wins above replacement (5.1 WAR) , above 90th percentile in both goals and primary assists and elite on the PP. there isn’t an argument for Pettersson not being top 5 in 19-20.

Let’s look at pettersson compared to Matthews from 2018-20.

Points
Pettersson: 132
Matthews: 153

WAR
Pettersson: 7.6
Matthews: 4.5

XWAR
Pettersson: 5.7
Matthews: 6.2

OFF
Pettersson: 27.4
Matthews : 22.5

XDEF
Pettersson: 1.0
Matthews: -1.7

Powerplay:
Pettersson: 6.8
Matthews: 5

Now let’s look at which player had the better RAPM
GF/60 (increasing teams rate of scoring) : Pettersson

XGF/60 : Matthews
CF/60: Matthews

XGA/60: Pettersson
CA/60 : Pettersson

So Matthews was better at generating quality scoring chances but Pettersson was better at increasing the rate his team scores goals and also better defensively. This isn’t to say Pettersson is better than Matthews, because he’s not but he was pretty damn close from 2018-20. Matthews is currently the 3rd best center in the league , Pettersson is at worst the 8th best center in the league right now , there’s an argument for him anywhere in the 5-8 range.


You can’t use analytics to prove everything, Matthews is better than Pettersson by a lot and Gallagher is not a top 10 rw, those should be obvious facts
Oct. 24, 2021 at 6:23 p.m.
#690
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Quoting: A_Habs_fan
You can’t use analytics to prove everything, Matthews is better than Pettersson by a lot and Gallagher is not a top 10 rw, those should be obvious facts


I never said Pettersson is better than Matthews, but you’re wrong that he’s better by a lot. You actually can use analytics to prove who’s better.

Clearly you don’t know what you’re talking about, Gallagher is a top 10 rw - Can you prove to me Gallagher isn’t a top 10 rw? No, you can’t.
Oct. 24, 2021 at 6:32 p.m.
#691
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Quoting: Db1899
Montreal’s top line was a top 5 line in the league - that is not my opinion, it is a fact. I already proved that to you.

Gallagher is a top 10 rw. Over the last 3 years only ovechkin and Matthews has scored at a higher rate at 5v5. Gallagher is elite at driving offense and increasing his teams rate of scoring. He’s also very good defensively. He is 100% a top 10 rw . There’s nothing you can say to prove otherwise.

I said Pettersson was a top 5 RW in the league in his 2nd season (19-20 season). He was top 3 among centers in wins above replacement (5.1 WAR) , above 90th percentile in both goals and primary assists and elite on the PP. there isn’t an argument for Pettersson not being top 5 in 19-20.

Let’s look at pettersson compared to Matthews from 2018-20.

Points
Pettersson: 132
Matthews: 153

WAR
Pettersson: 7.6
Matthews: 4.5

XWAR
Pettersson: 5.7
Matthews: 6.2

OFF
Pettersson: 27.4
Matthews : 22.5

XDEF
Pettersson: 1.0
Matthews: -1.7

Powerplay:
Pettersson: 6.8
Matthews: 5

Now let’s look at which player had the better RAPM
GF/60 (increasing teams rate of scoring) : Pettersson

XGF/60 : Matthews
CF/60: Matthews

XGA/60: Pettersson
CA/60 : Pettersson

So Matthews was better at generating quality scoring chances but Pettersson was better at increasing the rate his team scores goals and also better defensively. This isn’t to say Pettersson is better than Matthews, because he’s not but he was pretty damn close from 2018-20. Matthews is currently the 3rd best center in the league , Pettersson is at worst the 8th best center, there’s an argument for him anywhere in the 5-8 range.

Landeskog-MacKinnon-Rantanen
Marchand-Bergeron-Pastrnak
Palat-Point-Kucherov
Hyman-Matthews-Marner
Miller-Pettersson-Boeser
Gaudreau-Lindholm-Tkachuk
Pacioretty-Stephenson-Stone
Panarin-Strome-Buchnevich
anyone-McDavid-anyone (say it’s Draisaitl/Puljujarvi and it’s no contest, or even like Kassian/Puljujarvi)
DeBrincat-Strome/Toews/Suter-Kane

Like, how many of these lines are you trading for Montreal’s? And I didn’t even stack any of the lines (i.e. Zibby over Strome, Stamkos over Palat). Most of these lines have a guy that I wouldn’t trade individually for Montreal’s entire top line. I don’t know if the numbers you’re counting don’t rate finishing very highly, but if your top line combined is barely contributing 70 goals per season (19-20 pro-rated numbers, 57 combined goals in 198 games played combined rates out to 71 goals total for the line if they all play 82 games, it would only have been 52 total goals in 20-21), I think you’ve got an issue. 50-70 goals plus being good defensively/possession-wise is a solid 2nd line, not a top 5 line in the league. At the end of the day goals win hockey games, not shot attempts and possession.

Same deal for Pettersson, I like that he’s a good 2-way guy but 30 goals and under a point per game compared to 50+ goals and 95+ points is just no contest. Underlying numbers are great at predicting breakouts and slightly raising the value of guys to more realistic levels, but they aren’t the be-all, end-all. Like you’re not gonna claim Bunting is an elite player just because he has one of the best WAR% in the league. Results matter. When Pettersson scores 40 goals and 95 points like he should be able to eventually, he’ll enter that top 8, maybe even top 5 (as Crosby fades), conversation and his defensive play might push him past someone like Eichel if they have similar point totals. But he’s not there yet.
Oct. 24, 2021 at 6:57 p.m.
#692
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Oct. 24, 2021 at 7:00 p.m.
#693
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Quoting: Db1899
I never said Pettersson is better than Matthews, but you’re wrong that he’s better by a lot. You actually can use analytics to prove who’s better.

Clearly you don’t know what you’re talking about, Gallagher is a top 10 rw - Can you prove to me Gallagher isn’t a top 10 rw? No, you can’t.


For top talent, analytics don’t mean anything, it’s the stats and results you see on the ice that counts. Gallagher is a good top 6 winger but he’s nowhere near top 10. As for EP vs Matthews, let me know when EP can score at a 50 goal pace and 90+ points
Oct. 24, 2021 at 7:07 p.m.
#694
Farewell
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Quoting: Db1899
Pettersson is at worst the 8th best center in the league right now , there’s an argument for him anywhere in the 5-8 range.


No way, NO WAY Pettersson is that high right now. He has to play consistently and stay healthy to enter that tier, 2 very good (but not elite) seasons that are then followed by an injury-riddled campaign which hasn't left him looking the same since do not in any way make somebody a top 10, or even top 15, center.
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Oct. 24, 2021 at 7:15 p.m.
#695
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Quoting: A_Habs_fan
For top talent, analytics don’t mean anything, it’s the stats and results you see on the ice that counts. Gallagher is a good top 6 winger but he’s nowhere near top 10. As for EP vs Matthews, let me know when EP can score at a 50 goal pace and 90+ points


Ah it’s the stats that counts. Only two players have scored goals at a higher rate than Gallagher over the last 3 years. Results! Scoring goals at a higher rate than most of the league only makes you a good top 6 winger?
Oct. 24, 2021 at 7:17 p.m.
#696
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Quoting: PointStamkosVasilevskiy219188
No way, NO WAY Pettersson is that high right now. He has to play consistently and stay healthy to enter that tier, 2 very good (but not elite) seasons that are then followed by an injury-riddled campaign which hasn't left him looking the same since do not in any way make somebody a top 10, or even top 15, center.


Thanks for your opinion, have anything to back that up?
Oct. 24, 2021 at 7:22 p.m.
#697
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Quoting: Alfie11
Landeskog-MacKinnon-Rantanen
Marchand-Bergeron-Pastrnak
Palat-Point-Kucherov
Hyman-Matthews-Marner
Miller-Pettersson-Boeser
Gaudreau-Lindholm-Tkachuk
Pacioretty-Stephenson-Stone
Panarin-Strome-Buchnevich
anyone-McDavid-anyone (say it’s Draisaitl/Puljujarvi and it’s no contest, or even like Kassian/Puljujarvi)
DeBrincat-Strome/Toews/Suter-Kane

Like, how many of these lines are you trading for Montreal’s? And I didn’t even stack any of the lines (i.e. Zibby over Strome, Stamkos over Palat). Most of these lines have a guy that I wouldn’t trade individually for Montreal’s entire top line. I don’t know if the numbers you’re counting don’t rate finishing very highly, but if your top line combined is barely contributing 70 goals per season (19-20 pro-rated numbers, 57 combined goals in 198 games played combined rates out to 71 goals total for the line if they all play 82 games, it would only have been 52 total goals in 20-21), I think you’ve got an issue. 50-70 goals plus being good defensively/possession-wise is a solid 2nd line, not a top 5 line in the league. At the end of the day goals win hockey games, not shot attempts and possession.

Same deal for Pettersson, I like that he’s a good 2-way guy but 30 goals and under a point per game compared to 50+ goals and 95+ points is just no contest. Underlying numbers are great at predicting breakouts and slightly raising the value of guys to more realistic levels, but they aren’t the be-all, end-all. Like you’re not gonna claim Bunting is an elite player just because he has one of the best WAR% in the league. Results matter. When Pettersson scores 40 goals and 95 points like he should be able to eventually, he’ll enter that top 8, maybe even top 5 (as Crosby fades), conversation and his defensive play might push him past someone like Eichel if they have similar point totals. But he’s not there yet.


You’re using Jfresh model that has Bunting WAR % extremely high after 20 games and low ice time. Not even close to the same thing as two years of Pettersson and 100+ games. Just admit you don’t understand analytics instead of trying to BS.

xG are good for predicting breakouts, Pettersson has been increasing the rate his team scores actual goals at an elite rate (GF/60).
Oct. 24, 2021 at 7:27 p.m.
#698
v5 CBJ GM
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Quoting: Db1899
I never said Pettersson is better than Matthews, but you’re wrong that he’s better by a lot. You actually can use analytics to prove who’s better.

Clearly you don’t know what you’re talking about, Gallagher is a top 10 rw - Can you prove to me Gallagher isn’t a top 10 rw? No, you can’t.

if gally was a top 10 rw we shouldn’t have a problem trading him for, say, nik ehlers
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Oct. 24, 2021 at 7:31 p.m.
#699
Farewell
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Quoting: Db1899
Thanks for your opinion, have anything to back that up?


Sure, watch any Canucks game from this year and compare the Elias Pettersson in them to the EP of two years ago. You'd think you were watching an estranged identical twin of Pettersson's play in his stead. He just hasn't been the same since the injury, which is why his production is falling off a cliff. Now, as some mentioned earlier, this isn't to say anything along the lines of "He'll never recover, throw the towel in, he'll never live up to his potential", but his slow start stands out from others due to his injury history. I wouldn't take Pettersson higher than 17th at best (short-term, not long) if I had my choice of centers in the league right now. For what it's worth, here's how I'd rank the top 15:
1) Connor McDavid
2) Nathan MacKinnon
3) Leon Draisaitl
4) Auston Matthews
5) Alexsander Barkov
6) Brayden Point
7) Sidney Crosby
8) Sebastian Aho
9) Patrice Bergeron
10) Ryan O'Reilly
11) Mark Scheifele
12) Mathew Barzal
13) Sean Couturier
14) Nicklas Backstrom
15) Mika Zibanejad
If EP was playing like the EP of two years ago, it would be an entirely different story, but he's not.
Oct. 24, 2021 at 7:33 p.m.
#700
Hop on the Slaftrain
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People mix up top 10 in results and top 10 in talent.
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