Edited Oct. 21, 2021 at 12:44 p.m.
Quoting: mokumboi
Hmm. That's certainly a bit of exaggeration, but the thing you're really overlooking is what a catastrophe he is getting out of the zone - about 14th percentile in success % over his career so far. That's Oleksiak territory, meaning in the long run he probably creates far more danger chances with his turnovers and bad passes than he suppresses. Any way you slice it, he's a 3rd pairing guy signed to a 4x4.
Final analysis: Diamond hard pass for me.
That's your opinion, and that's your right to it, but I don't think it's a very informed one.
First of all, it's not an exaggeration at all- from Dom Luszczyszyn's season preview of the Penguins this year on the Athletic: "Surprisingly he [Brian Dumoulin] wasn't the best on the team last season- that honor went to Marcus Pettersson, a sometimes maligned figure on the backend. He's better than many give him credit for and I'm not quite sure where the hate stems from. He's not a great puck-mover and isn't the most physical, but he puts up great defensive numbers. He consistently allows fewer chances relative to teammates which brings him to a consistent 53 percent (!) expected goals rate and an even higher actual goals rate. Last year, no one allowed fewer expected goals against than Pettersson".
Evolving Hockey likes him too (not on the power play I guess, but why would anyone use him on the power play?).
I'm also not sure where you're seeing all these turnovers and bad passes. He was #305 among defensemen in giveaways since 2017-18, his first season in the league, far far behind the typical guys people throw up there as solutions for the Blues defense like Lindholm, Scandella, or Mayfield. His teams gets more shots with him on the ice than without him on the ice, something that's only improved as he's gotten older. So even if he is bad at breaking out of the zone, the Penguins are still have more possession than not when he's on the ice. I think your concern about this one stat is unwarranted. I wish you'd apply the same reasoning every time someone recommends trading Ivan Barbashev or Oskar Sundqvist. Diamond hard opinions isn't always the best approach to stuff.
As for the third pairing thing, you're right that he doesn't get a ton of ice time (17 minutes per game, which puts him at a low end second pair option) but like Vince Dunn (although in kind of an opposite way) I think he's a guy who could benefit from a bigger role. His play style and size is extremely similar to Jay Bouwmeester and I think that's the kind of guy Parayko could use again. I don't discount that it would be a risk but every move is a risk to some degree, and I think he's significantly less risky than someone like Lindholm who is older, has tons of pedigree, and is on an expiring deal. He's definitely not going to hurt you anymore than say, Marco Scandella does.