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Make the moves early

Created by: BeterChiarelli
Team: 2021-22 Edmonton Oilers
Initial Creation Date: Oct. 20, 2021
Published: Oct. 20, 2021
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
Smith on IR and Bishop "close" to returning to action: pull the trigger on the three-way deal as Skinner takes on the Coyotes such that Khudobin can take Vegas the night after. The discrepancy between sending out Dobby and Big Ben's return can give Oettinger some well-deserved NHL starts.

Yamamoto is floundering and I'd prefer to take the opportunity to sell high sooner rather than later. If the organization is committing to Holloway as a pivot, then a swap for a LW to mix into the top-six is crucial. Bourgault can handle the middle-six RW responsibilities likely as soon as next season. Auxiliary assets swapped accordingly as opposed to retention from Chicago.

Edmonton's blueline remains suspect and the rental market drops off substantially beyond Lindholm and Leddy: with Columbus rebuilding and owning a trove of LHD, I'm curious as to whether or not Gavrikov could be available for Edmonton's first and a very quiet, sneaky-good RHD prospect who's shutdown style would compliment Bean exceptionally well. Berglund could be had instead if you want someone more NHL ready but Kemp has a higher ceiling. Jackets fans, is there a deal here? Turris has to go back to make the cap work but it saves the need for any retention.

Pysyk over Koekkoek to pair with Keith on the ass end of the blue line represents a marginal upgrade that should inspire a touch more faith in the Oilers' blueline to handle some of the more offensively-gifted teams from out east all while securing a warm body for next year's Sabres to flip. Pysyk is a name the Oilers should have inquired for over the likes of Ceci, but alas. This trade likely solves the waivers issue regarding not getting anything for Slater next season as Samorukov should be the incumbent third pairing defender next year.

The roster as-is represents a near 10-point increase in standings points as per JFresh's model: because we know it already undervalues the effect of Edmonton's forwards, Bouchard, and the division they play in, I suspect this roster (especially if the trades are made sooner rather than later) could likely threaten for the President's Trophy, albeit not entirely on merit. I don't take his model as law but they tend to at least hint at reality: the improvements here make a matchup with the Avalanche in the WCF (god forbid the final dance) all the more believable at the very least.

I'll post a part two later tonight in order to determine if any of the long-term moves made are feasible given Edmonton's cap considerations.
Free Agent Signings
RESERVE LISTYEARSCAP HIT
3$925,000
3$925,000
2$925,000
3$925,000
2$925,000
3$925,000
Trades
1.
EDM
  1. Kessel, Phil ($3,400,000 retained)
ARI
  1. Koskinen, Mikko
  2. 2023 2nd round pick (EDM)
2.
EDM
  1. Khudobin, Anton
  2. 2022 2nd round pick (DAL)
3.
EDM
ARI
  1. 2022 2nd round pick (DAL)
4.
EDM
  1. Strome, Dylan
  2. 2022 4th round pick (CHI)
5.
CBJ
  1. Kemp, Philip
  2. Turris, Kyle
  3. 2022 1st round pick (EDM)
6.
EDM
  1. Pysyk, Mark
  2. 2023 7th round pick (BUF)
Additional Details:
Pick conditional on the number of games Koekkoek plays next season?
Buyouts
Retained Salary Transactions
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2022
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the CHI
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
2023
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the BUF
2024
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
23$81,500,000$81,255,301$669,339$907,500$244,699

Roster

Left WingCentreRight Wing
Logo of the Chicago Blackhawks
$3,000,000$3,000,000
C
UFA - 1
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$12,500,000$12,500,000
C
UFA - 5
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$1,175,000$1,175,000
RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$5,125,000$5,125,000
LW, C
NMC
UFA - 8
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$8,500,000$8,500,000
C, LW
UFA - 4
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$5,500,000$5,500,000
RW, LW
NMC
UFA - 7
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$2,750,000$2,750,000
LW, RW
UFA - 3
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$1,250,000$1,250,000
C, RW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$3,200,000$3,200,000
RW
UFA - 3
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$850,000$850,000
LW, C, RW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$834,167$834,167 (Performance Bonus$57,500$58K)
C
RFA - 1
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$750,000$750,000
RW, C
UFA - 1
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$5,600,000$5,600,000
LD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$863,333$863,333 (Performance Bonus$850,000$850K)
RD
RFA - 2
Logo of the Dallas Stars
$3,333,333$3,333,333
G
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
$2,800,000$2,800,000
LD
UFA - 2
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$3,250,000$3,250,000
RD
UFA - 4
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$2,200,000$2,200,000
G
UFA - 2
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$5,538,462$5,538,462
LD
NMC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Buffalo Sabres
$900,000$900,000
RD
UFA - 1
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$4,500,000$4,500,000
RD
UFA - 3
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$4,167,000$4,167,000
LD
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$1,250,000$1,250,000
LD/RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$1,500,000$1,500,000
RW, LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$750,000$750,000
RW, LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$785,000$785,000
G
UFA - 1

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Oct. 20, 2021 at 6:32 p.m.
#1
mokumboi
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"Yamamoto is floundering and I'd prefer to take the opportunity to sell high... "

Hmm. You can't sell high on a floundering asset, my man.
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Oct. 20, 2021 at 6:39 p.m.
#2
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Quoting: mokumboi
"Yamamoto is floundering and I'd prefer to take the opportunity to sell high... "

Hmm. You can't sell high on a floundering asset, my man.


Absolutely can sell high, and it's for a player the Hawks won't even put into their lineup.
Oct. 20, 2021 at 6:56 p.m.
#3
Future GM
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As an oilers fan I would do that kessel trade but then keep him not trade
I
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Oct. 20, 2021 at 6:57 p.m.
#4
mokumboi
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Quoting: BeterChiarelli
Absolutely can sell high, and it's for a player the Hawks won't even put into their lineup.


O_O

Let me try this another way. One cannot sell high if nobody will pay high. Nobody is paying high for Yamamoto these days. Obviously.
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Oct. 20, 2021 at 7:03 p.m.
#5
Vegan Commie Hipster
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I like the methodology but the returns trouble me

If Gavrikov was RFA ending then maybe a 1st

But why not use the 1st to package for a top D

Suggesting Gavrikov > Barrie is really bizarre

Especially given the use of analytical models here
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Oct. 20, 2021 at 7:06 p.m.
#6
SHL NJD GM
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I'm not sure Gavrikov is worth that much, but Jarmo has been good at selling high on guys
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Oct. 20, 2021 at 7:06 p.m.
#7
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Barrie is the 29th highest scoring D in NHL history (ahead of Gonchar, Rafalski, etc.) how on earth could he possibly warrant being scratched on this D core

Only 1/2 of his career beside elite forwards

Many of the 28 ahead of him had that throughout
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Oct. 20, 2021 at 7:06 p.m.
#8
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Quoting: FilthyMitts05
As an oilers fan I would do that kessel trade but then keep him not trade
I


It comes out to Koskinen, 2022 2nd and 2023 2nd. I guess Arizona makes the trade. Leaves Smith and Skinner? in goal...
Oct. 20, 2021 at 7:14 p.m.
#9
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The only possible way to sell high on a floundering player is if you somehow knew their career was entirely downhill from here on... so... 🤨

Obv not the case here ​so it's perplexing to see that

Also with Strome floundering in ways too (neither are really but anyhow) and he and Yams having almost the exact same career points per game so far...

Why do the Oilers add a quality prospect there

Benson is an elite AHL scorer and still has potential, with Yams more cost controlled too it's very arguable he's the better asset for CHI trying* to contend

*emphasis on trying

Lol stan bowman
Oct. 20, 2021 at 7:18 p.m.
#10
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Don't think that Yamamoto trade is going to work for us. We have our share of midgets thanks.
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Oct. 20, 2021 at 7:40 p.m.
#11
TOR V5 GM
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Quoting: A_Habs_fan
I'm not sure Gavrikov is worth that much, but Jarmo has been good at selling high on guys


He's probably not, but think of it this way

Savard and Foligno got a 1st
Jones got a top prospect and two 1st

He is gonna get top value for Gav if he trades him, and it would definetely include a 1st
Oct. 20, 2021 at 7:46 p.m.
#12
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If Arizona is willing to retain that much on kessel I would assume 20 other teams would top that offer.
I really don’t see this obsession with strome completely fine with packaging yam even benson who I really like but would hope they can land a better player than strome. Top line I just don’t see the point we have better options currently on the team. I think scratching the guy who lead all d in points is just as odd as putting strome on top line.
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Oct. 20, 2021 at 8:17 p.m.
#13
Smokewise Ganja
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Yamo > Strome, and you wouldn't have to give up a player for strome, at least not another forward. The asking price is a 3rd/4th- could probably give them benson + 6th and they'd flip benson or just the 3rd straight up
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Oct. 20, 2021 at 9:59 p.m.
#14
Nah.
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Quoting: LGuy54
He's probably not, but think of it this way

Savard and Foligno got a 1st
Jones got a top prospect and two 1st

He is gonna get top value for Gav if he trades him, and it would definetely include a 1st


Gavvy will get a 1st.
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Oct. 21, 2021 at 2:34 p.m.
#15
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Thanks for the feedback boys!

Quoting: FilthyMitts05
As an oilers fan I would do that kessel trade but then keep him not trade


The machinations of CapFriendly make it difficult to see, but it's a three-way deal: Kessel for two seconds is probably fair value, I don't think Edmonton (or any team) is getting Phil for anything less than that. I'd like Kessel too but I think Khudobin might be the greater priority until Koskinen can demonstrate otherwise.

Quoting: mokumboi
O_O

Let me try this another way. One cannot sell high if nobody will pay high. Nobody is paying high for Yamamoto these days. Obviously.


There was a quote here before Yamamoto extended re: the Flames possibly offersheeting Kailer. He wasn't worth paying $4M but his value was clearly north of a second round pick. That's still where I see his value. He just hasn't clicked beyond one hot streak; he's still a young player and a change of scenery could show that he's more than just a third-liner. I think most of that sentiment could be shared with Strome's namesake.

Quoting: A_Habs_fan
I'm not sure Gavrikov is worth that much, but Jarmo has been good at selling high on guys


Aim high lest I get a wave of Jackets fans angry that I bought too low on their suddenly-favourite player. I reckon the first is an absolute given the term and the quality of the player but I suspect Kemp is excessive.

Quoting: LGuy54
He's probably not, but think of it this way

Savard and Foligno got a 1st
Jones got a top prospect and two 1st

He is gonna get top value for Gav if he trades him, and it would definitely include a 1st


I think a big part of that conversation is less "should Gavrikov be worth a first" and more is Gavrikov worth a 1st+? I wanted to err on the side of caution - I tend to find people easier to deal with on this site if they're the ones talking you down as opposed to fighting about whether the fan's perceived value is more accurate than the external POV. My guess is taking out Kemp solves the issue.

Quoting: Timmah007
If Arizona is willing to retain that much on kessel I would assume 20 other teams would top that offer.
I really don’t see this obsession with strome completely fine with packaging yam even benson who I really like but would hope they can land a better player than strome. Top line I just don’t see the point we have better options currently on the team. I think scratching the guy who lead all d in points is just as odd as putting Strome on top line.


The Coyotes only owe Phil $850k this season: them retaining 50% is strictly for the cap hit involved, in reality it's less than half a million dollars. The Coyotes retaining 50% on what's left of Kessel is a given in any trade for him.

I find the obsession with Barrie's counting numbers - especially in the context of playoff games - to be just as bizarre as how some of my roster decisions appear to have been interpreted. Perhaps I should have specified, but of course I'd play him throughout the regular season. Playing Strome with McDavid is no more bizarre than the outpouring of support the fanbase had for the Kahun-Draisaitl duo last season: the two players have a history that could lead to something at the NHL level. Strome may be a bit of a passenger, but his style is akin to a lankier Maroon. CD282 - like him or not - did a lot of thinking and investigation into the idea and I believe proposed a Keith-Strome for Jones-Koskinen deal prior to the general public learning that the Oilers don't understand what a negative asset truly is.
Oct. 21, 2021 at 2:34 p.m.
#16
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Broke the reply into two parts because Radu brought up some points that I wanted to stand out more.

Quoting: Radu47
I like the methodology but the returns trouble me

If Gavrikov was RFA ending then maybe a 1st

But why not use the 1st to package for a top D

Suggesting Gavrikov > Barrie is really bizarre

Especially given the use of analytical models here


The list of "top d" that can be had this deadline is currently a name and a half long with Ekholm having just extended and next year's crop isn't much better either as I suspect names like Orlov and Sergachev aren't going to be moving in the near future. Thus it became a matter of just acquiring a solid defender - recognize that Keith probably isn't retiring next year and Samorukov needs to be NHL bound next season - with term in order to both improve the roster and justify the cost. I don't think Leddy or Giordano are names that any team should be looking to send a first for. There's a current market scarcity in quality defenders, results of the best men having already signed to max-term deals.

Gavrikov plays a lot like a left-handed Larsson and it's no secret that such a skillset is something this team needs. The price is a bit high but I find it more constructive to suss out value from other teams by exceeding that initial expectation. The only reason I have him (and Pysyk) over Barrie is based on the math that JFresh's model does to calculate WAR. Reality is Tippett would never split Keith-Ceci and the Oilers would run a Gavrikov-Barrie pairing. Barrie's skillset doesn't lend to playoff hockey in the slightest and I've been less than impressed with his results dating back to last season.

Quoting: Radu47
Barrie is the 29th highest scoring D in NHL history (ahead of Gonchar, Rafalski, etc.) how on earth could he possibly warrant being scratched on this D core

Only 1/2 of his career beside elite forwards

Many of the 28 ahead of him had that throughout


Because Barrie cannot play defense: with penalty rates evaporating over the course of the postseason, those scoring rates drop substantially.

The Oilers do not have the proper roster construction in order to gain positive value out of Barrie beyond the regular season: if Keith could have been replaced by a genuinely defensively-capable partner then having Barrie on the playoff roster makes sense. Managing shots against becomes exponentially more important in the playoffs given the smaller sample size the games leave you to work with: you can't rely on shot metrics from the regular season to always translate into those isolated seven-game series. The only thing you can truly control in that moment is by minimizing the CF% of the team you're matched up against.

I like the idea of a Samorukov-Barrie pairing next season and oh how wonderfully a Klefbom-Barrie pairing could have been: such pairings should be able to manipulate CF% in the manner you'd expect offensively-natured defenders to do so (overwhelmingly in their favour) because of how the two pieces mesh together. We don't have one of those on this roster (maybe he works with Gavrikov, Jack's math suggested otherwise). This is why you saw me ask Avalanche and Leafs fans only days ago if he'd work as a forward: there isn't a good spot on that blueline for him until we can get Keith off the roster. Otherwise the old man is playing too high up the depth chart or the bottom pair is at substantial risk of being exposed.

Quoting: Radu47
The only possible way to sell high on a floundering player is if you somehow knew their career was entirely downhill from here on... so... 🤨

Obv not the case here ​so it's perplexing to see that

Also with Strome floundering in ways too (neither are really but anyhow) and he and Yams having almost the exact same career points per game so far...

Why do the Oilers add a quality prospect there

Benson is an elite AHL scorer and still has potential, with Yams more cost controlled too it's very arguable he's the better asset for CHI trying* to contend

*emphasis on trying

Lol stan bowman


I'm suspect of Kailer's ceiling and I believe that he's probably peaking as a decent third-line option. Less DeBrincat more Gerbe? The Hyman acquisition and lack of any effective long-term spot for Kassian (early results promising however) leave me looking at Yamamoto as a piece that if Tippett isn't going to support with proper roster utilization, should be moved on from. Bourgault is pushing very hard from the QMJHL (I'm starting to think his AHL audition will run short: games this summer, maybe to start next season) and Lavoie could still emerge as an NHL option as early as the New Year.

Given the Oilers cap situation next year - ignoring for a second I used him to acquire a more expensive player - I don't think Yamamoto is long for this roster. My gut feeling from how his negotiations went this summer to how Tippett has been benching him or failing to adapt the roster to get the most value out of Kailer lads me to think that Holland will trade him for a roster piece of need. I'm uncertain as to where however, as it's contingent on when the trade happens and how other pieces of the roster manage the rest of the year. If Skinner falters and the Oilers actually aren't rumoured to have a Khudobin trade set, then I can see a real deal for Driedger (auxiliary pieces may vary). If Keith really struggles this year or gets into injury trouble, then I would be wholly unsurprised to see Yamamoto traded as part of a package for a quality LHD. If the trade happens before or on the deadline, then I think something in this neighbourhood to give Edmonton overwhelming forward depth is likely.

I don't think Benson should qualify as a prosect anymore. A fair shake would be to see what he does on the current roster but I think it's a moot point at this point. I have him with the likes of Ho-Sang or Jeremu Bracco. Greatness at the AHL level isn't always going to translate, and it's yet to do so for Tyler. I think he has more value as a trade piece than a roster player the organizatio has to jump through hoops with in order to avoid losing him to waivers.
Oct. 21, 2021 at 5:59 p.m.
#17
Future GM
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Quoting: BeterChiarelli
Thanks for the feedback boys!



The machinations of CapFriendly make it difficult to see, but it's a three-way deal: Kessel for two seconds is probably fair value, I don't think Edmonton (or any team) is getting Phil for anything less than that. I'd like Kessel too but I think Khudobin might be the greater priority until Koskinen can demonstrate otherwise.



There was a quote here before Yamamoto extended re: the Flames possibly offersheeting Kailer. He wasn't worth paying $4M but his value was clearly north of a second round pick. That's still where I see his value. He just hasn't clicked beyond one hot streak; he's still a young player and a change of scenery could show that he's more than just a third-liner. I think most of that sentiment could be shared with Strome's namesake.



Aim high lest I get a wave of Jackets fans angry that I bought too low on their suddenly-favourite player. I reckon the first is an absolute given the term and the quality of the player but I suspect Kemp is excessive.



I think a big part of that conversation is less "should Gavrikov be worth a first" and more is Gavrikov worth a 1st+? I wanted to err on the side of caution - I tend to find people easier to deal with on this site if they're the ones talking you down as opposed to fighting about whether the fan's perceived value is more accurate than the external POV. My guess is taking out Kemp solves the issue.



The Coyotes only owe Phil $850k this season: them retaining 50% is strictly for the cap hit involved, in reality it's less than half a million dollars. The Coyotes retaining 50% on what's left of Kessel is a given in any trade for him.

I find the obsession with Barrie's counting numbers - especially in the context of playoff games - to be just as bizarre as how some of my roster decisions appear to have been interpreted. Perhaps I should have specified, but of course I'd play him throughout the regular season. Playing Strome with McDavid is no more bizarre than the outpouring of support the fanbase had for the Kahun-Draisaitl duo last season: the two players have a history that could lead to something at the NHL level. Strome may be a bit of a passenger, but his style is akin to a lankier Maroon. CD282 - like him or not - did a lot of thinking and investigation into the idea and I believe proposed a Keith-Strome for Jones-Koskinen deal prior to the general public learning that the Oilers don't understand what a negative asset truly is.


We should get rittich instead of kokinnen plus Kessel
Oct. 21, 2021 at 7:14 p.m.
#18
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Quoting: FilthyMitts05
We should get rittich instead of kokinnen plus Kessel


Rittich isn't an upgrade over anything the Oilers have in their system up to and maybe including Konovalov. Unless Skinner forgets how to skate overnight Big Save Dave probably wouldn't beat out either of our AHL goalies for their jobs in Bakersfield.
 
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