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Coming to terms with Erik Brannstroms trade value over the course of the season

Created by: sensonfire
Team: 2021-22 Ottawa Senators
Initial Creation Date: Oct. 20, 2021
Published: Oct. 20, 2021
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/32-thoughts-nhl-create-salary-cap-exceptions/


Thought #10


"The next item of business for Ottawa is Erik Brannstrom. You can read the tea leaves, it will be tough for him to find a consistent spot. But the Senators do recognize his talent, and they will ask real value from teams calling about him."
Trades
1.
OTT
  1. 2022 1st round pick (VGK)
VGK
  1. Brännström, Erik
Additional Details:
This is what I think real value for Erik Brannstrom is right now:

A Low 1st round Pick



Vegas drafted Brannstrom 15th overall in 2017 and he still has the potential and offensive upside of a generic 1st round pick.

Vegas' 1st round pick since 2017 has been 30th overall, 17th overall, 29th overall and 30th overall respectively.


So, trading Brannstrom for Vegas' 1st would suit me just fine.
2.
OTT
  1. 2022 2nd round pick (CBJ)
Additional Details:
However, I also understand that not every team would want to pay a low 1st for Brannstrom.
CBJ
    Why?

    Because if he is not able to secure a roster spot on a team like the Ottawa Senators after yet another season with his ELC due to expire next year, his trade value depreciates.



    Every week and every month that goes by without Brannstrom in the lineup, he depreciates in value.

    Other teams would know that.



    So, if we're in the 2022 offseason and Brannstrom still has not secured a contributing role in the Ottawa Senators, then that means only one thing:


    He would be worth a 2nd round pick instead.
    3.
    OTT
      Case in point:
      CAR
        Jake Bean


        Left Handed Defenceman


        13th overall pick in 2016


        Traded to Columbus for the 44th overall pick on draft day and then signed an extension with the Blue Jackets afterwards.



        Is that what Brannstrom will be worth next year if the status quo remains?

        A mid 2nd round pick on draft day?
        4.
        OTT
        1. Kravtsov, Vitali
        Additional Details:
        And then there's trading Brannstrom for another former 1st round pick that is struggling to secure a spot on an NHL team.
        NYR
          To me, this is the least ideal situation for Ottawa.


          What's to say that he has a better chance to succeed in the NHL than Brannstrom does?
          5.
          BUF
            This would be something like swapping Henri Jokiharju for Alex Nylander.


            Which happened not that long ago between the Hawks and the Sabres.


            https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/250338
            6.
            CHI
            1. Jokiharju, Henri
            Additional Details:
            One of the many sins of the Stan Bowman regime in Chicago.


            Something that may never be forgiven :(
            7.
            OTT
              If you read this post from start to finish, you're the greatest!
              BUF
              1. Nylander, Alexander
              Additional Details:
              :D
              Buyouts
              DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
              2022
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              2023
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              2024
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              ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
              23$81,500,000$60,404,091$0$4,057,500$21,095,909
              Left WingCentreRight Wing
              Logo of the Ottawa Senators
              $8,330,674$8,330,674
              LW
              UFA - 7
              Logo of the Ottawa Senators
              $925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$850,000$850K)
              C
              UFA - 1
              Logo of the Ottawa Senators
              $4,975,000$4,975,000
              RW, LW
              UFA - 6
              Logo of the Ottawa Senators
              $749,250$749,250
              C, LW
              UFA - 1
              Logo of the Ottawa Senators
              $925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$600,000$600K)
              C
              RFA - 2
              Logo of the Ottawa Senators
              $3,600,000$3,600,000
              RW, LW
              UFA - 2
              Logo of the Ottawa Senators
              $925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$2,500,000$2M)
              C
              UFA - 2
              Logo of the Ottawa Senators
              $3,500,000$3,500,000
              C
              UFA - 1
              Logo of the Ottawa Senators
              $747,500$747,500 (Performance Bonus$107,500$108K)
              LW
              RFA - 1
              Logo of the Ottawa Senators
              $2,000,000$2,000,000
              LW, RW
              UFA - 1
              Logo of the Ottawa Senators
              $725,000$725,000
              C, RW
              UFA - 1
              Logo of the Ottawa Senators
              $900,000$900,000
              LW, RW
              UFA - 1
              Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
              Logo of the Ottawa Senators
              $8,000,000$8,000,000
              LD
              UFA - 7
              Logo of the Ottawa Senators
              $2,500,000$2,500,000
              RD
              UFA - 2
              Logo of the Ottawa Senators
              $4,687,500$4,687,500
              G
              M-NTC
              UFA - 3
              Logo of the Ottawa Senators
              $2,000,000$2,000,000
              LD
              UFA - 2
              Logo of the Ottawa Senators
              $4,500,000$4,500,000
              RD
              M-NTC
              UFA - 3
              Logo of the Ottawa Senators
              $900,000$900,000
              G
              UFA - 1
              Logo of the Ottawa Senators
              $1,700,000$1,700,000
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              UFA - 1
              Logo of the Ottawa Senators
              $1,200,000$1,200,000
              RD
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              ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
              Logo of the Ottawa Senators
              $1,200,000$1,200,000
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              Logo of the Ottawa Senators
              $4,750,000$4,750,000
              C, RW
              UFA - 4
              Logo of the Ottawa Senators
              $750,000$750,000
              RW
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              Logo of the Ottawa Senators
              $1,500,000$1,500,000
              RW, LW
              UFA - 2
              Logo of the Ottawa Senators
              $726,667$726,667
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              Logo of the Ottawa Senators
              $838,333$838,333
              LW
              RFA - 3
              Logo of the Ottawa Senators
              $800,000$800,000
              C, LW
              UFA - 1

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              Oct. 20, 2021 at 7:18 p.m.
              #1
              GO FLAMES GO
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              Good post as usual.
              sensonfire, Radu47, Saskleaf and 1 other person liked this.
              Oct. 20, 2021 at 7:22 p.m.
              #2
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              Brannstrom is lower than Bean was at the time he was traded in terms of overall value IMO. I'd say he's probably close to a low 2nd, maybe even a high 3rd. Draft pedigree doesn't matter as much that long after the actual draft
              Oct. 20, 2021 at 7:24 p.m.
              #3
              Vegan Commie Hipster
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              Quoting: DH28Hockey
              Brannstrom is lower than Bean was at the time he was traded in terms of overall value IMO. I'd say he's probably close to a low 2nd, maybe even a high 3rd. Draft pedigree doesn't matter as much that long after the actual draft


              Yes but results do tho

              He was the 24th highest scoring D last season

              Just because the league mostly ignores pts/60 doesn't we should fall into that too, it's just a way to factor in TOI to scoring, easy to look up these stats now
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              Oct. 20, 2021 at 7:24 p.m.
              #4
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              sensonfire
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              Quoting: DH28Hockey
              Brannstrom is lower than Bean was at the time he was traded in terms of overall value IMO. I'd say he's probably close to a low 2nd, maybe even a high 3rd. Draft pedigree doesn't matter as much that long after the actual draft


              flushed cheeks
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              Oct. 20, 2021 at 7:30 p.m.
              #5
              Vegan Commie Hipster
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              High quality post

              👍

              The perceived depreciation factor is big but I think you can trust that waiting another year will fix the situation I mean he really is so so good

              Selling low could be absolutely devastating 😵

              Once he matures physically a bit as he moves further into his prime he'll be too good to keep out of the lineup and already put up nice numbers last year

              If people can't understand that 13 points in 30 games* is a actually quite good then they have no business evaluating hockey much less being in charge

              *0.43 pts/g which was better than EK65, Dumba, etc.

              Anyhow this sucks so much

              Brann deserves so much better than this scenario

              He's earned it
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              Oct. 20, 2021 at 7:44 p.m.
              #6
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              Yes the Nylander Jokiharju move won't be forgotten any time soon.

              Where would Strome fit into your value perception?
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              Oct. 20, 2021 at 7:55 p.m.
              #7
              KFTW
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              Quoting: DH28Hockey
              Brannstrom is lower than Bean was at the time he was traded in terms of overall value IMO. I'd say he's probably close to a low 2nd, maybe even a high 3rd. Draft pedigree doesn't matter as much that long after the actual draft


              Lmao cap. He was on pace for 35pts last year playing low minutes. He’s already a 2nd pairing Dman
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              Oct. 20, 2021 at 8:07 p.m.
              #8
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              Quoting: Aussie_Blackhawk
              Yes the Nylander Jokiharju move won't be forgotten any time soon.

              Where would Strome fit into your value perception?


              The absolute maximum that I think Chicago could get for Dylan Strome is something like what Calgary got for Sam Bennett.

              https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/440077



              However, I think that a 2nd + a prospect/pick that has less value than Heineman is more likely.

              Chicago might have to retain some salary as well.
              Aussie_Blackhawk liked this.
              Oct. 20, 2021 at 8:10 p.m.
              #9
              Jah1722
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              The difference in a Kravtsov for Brannstrom trade to the Jokiharju and Nylander trade is that neither of the latter has done anything in the NHL where Joki had showed some promise vs Nylander not.

              Kravtsov for Brannstrom makes sense as a player for player trade but idk about it making sense for the teams.
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              Oct. 20, 2021 at 8:15 p.m.
              #10
              Your favorite Ranger
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              "AFox23 is the greatest"

              -- sensonfire, 20 October 2021
              Oct. 20, 2021 at 8:20 p.m.
              #11
              KFTW
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              Quoting: Jah1722
              The difference in a Kravtsov for Brannstrom trade to the Jokiharju and Nylander trade is that neither of the latter has done anything in the NHL where Joki had showed some promise vs Nylander not.

              Kravtsov for Brannstrom makes sense as a player for player trade but idk about it making sense for the teams.


              Doesn’t make sense for the Rangers but I think it’s fair. It’s more risky for Ottawa because Brannstrom has looked good, was on pace for 35pts last year playing low minutes. Had some pts in preseason too.
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              Oct. 20, 2021 at 8:32 p.m.
              #12
              Jah1722
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              Quoting: csick
              Doesn’t make sense for the Rangers but I think it’s fair. It’s more risky for Ottawa because Brannstrom has looked good, was on pace for 35pts last year playing low minutes. Had some pts in preseason too.


              I didn’t realize Brannstrom has 60 games in the NHL. I would expect him to get a decent run this season again based on that.

              Were waivers a part of why he didn’t make the team? Looks like OTT forced the LHD-RHD pairs based on the depth charts on here.
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              Oct. 20, 2021 at 8:39 p.m.
              #13
              KFTW
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              Quoting: Jah1722
              I didn’t realize Brannstrom has 60 games in the NHL. I would expect him to get a decent run this season again based on that.

              Were waivers a part of why he didn’t make the team? Looks like OTT forced the LHD-RHD pairs based on the depth charts on here.


              We went and signed MDZ and Brannstrom was the only guy we could send down. We should’ve waived one of the other Ds but didn’t for some reason.
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              Oct. 20, 2021 at 8:45 p.m.
              #14
              Jah1722
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              Quoting: csick
              We went and signed MDZ and Brannstrom was the only guy we could send down. We should’ve waived one of the other Ds but didn’t for some reason.


              I doubt they give up on him since he was a major piece in the Stone trade. Not EK trade
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              Oct. 20, 2021 at 8:46 p.m.
              #15
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              sensonfire
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              Quoting: Jah1722
              I doubt they give up on him since he was a major piece in the EK trade.


              You mean Mark Stone?

              o_O
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              Oct. 20, 2021 at 8:46 p.m.
              #16
              Jah1722
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              Quoting: sensonfire
              You mean Mark Stone?

              o_O


              Yes. My bad lol
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              Oct. 20, 2021 at 9:03 p.m.
              #17
              Speak of the Devil
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              Any interest in Jesper Boqvist?
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              Oct. 20, 2021 at 9:25 p.m.
              #18
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              Quoting: sensonfire
              The absolute maximum that I think Chicago could get for Dylan Strome is something like what Calgary got for Sam Bennett.

              https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/440077



              However, I think that a 2nd + a prospect/pick that has less value than Heineman is more likely.

              Chicago might have to retain some salary as well.


              I agree that it would be a 2nd + 3rd/prospect valuation but more than anything I would like to see Strome given more of an opportunity. I am one of the few Hawks fans who still believe he has good upside. Maybe a coaching change would be beneficial, time will tell.
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              Oct. 20, 2021 at 10:11 p.m.
              #19
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              sensonfire
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              Quoting: Devil1122
              Any interest in Jesper Boqvist?


              I'm sure there will be from some team out there.

              But it might not be from Ottawa.

              If there's one team that might want him, it's Columbus

              Because his bro Adam is there and they could help each other reach that next level of performance.



              His value is a bit hard to pin down.

              I couldn't find a good comparable in which a player in a situation like Boqvist's was traded.



              Taking a shot in the dark, he might be worth a 3rd that has a performance based condition attached to it.

              If the condition is met, the 3rd would turn into a 2nd.
              Oct. 21, 2021 at 10:06 a.m.
              #20
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              I'll never understand why Dorion hangs onto assets for dear life until they depreciate. I think he just has no idea what asset management is, I mean a lot of people don't. Maybe he thinks he's only managing people.

              Yes Brannstrom is another depreciating asset but for now he still has good value, but the clock is ticking. Look what happened with RFAs Rudolfs Balcers, Logan Brown, Anthony Duclair... They didn't seem to be in long term plans, we hung on to them for some reason and finally didn't get any value for them. lol I hope they won't do the same for Brannstrom

              Just trade him for Kravtsov and try to salvage the disastrous Stone trade a bit (although that 2nd rounder turned into Egor Sokolov)
              sensonfire liked this.
               
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