Let me just preface this by asking Islanders fans not to call Tavares a snake, pajama boy or traitor in the comments, or for Leafs fans to mock Islanders fans and call them crybabies and what not.
This post was just inspired by me watching What If on Disney+ and wondering about a scenario like that for my Isles.
Also, I am not a math genius or have the best memory, so feel free to correct me on certain moves if I make any errors.
2018 Free Agency:
Islanders use their cap space from the 2018 Free Agency on Tavares, so Komarov and Hickey are not signed (Toews makes team to start the season, not midway through the year due to injury).
2019 Offseason:
Brock Nelson never gets a chance to play in the top 6 as a C, and never breaks out. He does play well under Trotz, and is resigned to a cheaper 3M to be the 3C rather than his 6x6 deal.
Lee, Beau, and Eberle (more to come on ebs later) sign the same deals as in real life
Minor deals like Brassard still take place
2019-2020 season:
Andy Greene was still acquired, and later retained, to replace the injured Pelech (injuries cannot be predicted so in this alternate universe Pelech still gets injured, same with Lee during the 20-21 season)
The first major trade change comes with the Pageau trade. In this universe we have JT-Barzy-Nelson-Cizikas as the 4 centers, so Pageau is not acquired, islanders keep the 2020 1st, 2nd picks
2020 Offseason:
In this universe, Leddy plays better during 19-20, as he is exposed to another superstar in Tavares at both even strength and on PP1, where Leddy makes his living. Lou is able to send Leddy to a team in need of a top 4 D, and is not forced to trade Toews. Leddy to Detroit never happens, Isles never take back Panik.
Pulock+Barzal deals remain the same.
2020-2021 season:
Palmieri still is traded for to replace the injured Lee.
2021 Offseason:
Eberle is still selected by Seattle, as Palms can replace him for 500k cheaper when he signs his new contract.
Pelech, Cizikas, Sorokin, Beau, Parise all still sign, Chara not needed due to Toews staying.
Ladd cap dump still happens, islanders just have to add in their own second in 2023 rather than sending Colorado’s second from the Toews trade.
Pulock signs his extension accordingly.
There are still some uncertainties with this team, for example: Lee plays his contract year alongside JT, who he scored 40 with, and Barzal is still 2C, playing against lesser competition with exposure to Tavares on PP1. Both could ask for 500k or more on their new contracts, throwing the team off.
Do I think this team is better than the current team? Yes, only bc I retained Toews. Most likely he would still be gone due to cap reasons along with Leddy the next year. Without Toews and still with Chara, I like the current islanders team better than this, as Nelson and Pageau at 11M combined leaves more flexibility than Tavares and this Nelson at 14M.
Islanders also lose out on the Raty pick from the Leddy trade, but gain Greig from the negated Pageau trade.
Regardless on your opinion on Tavares leaving, do you think him leaving was a blessing in disguise in terms of cap management?
Move Leddy away earlier, so Panik never joins team in the Leddy Detroit trade.
***I forgot to add Hickey to Komarov in the never signed trade, just adding him here.
lou offered JT 12.5M x 8 to stay on the island. unless he decided to take less money to stay in what most figured was a less optimal situation in NYI, he likely has a slightly higher cap hit
If Tavares re-signed, Nelson would have been traded IMO. I could also see a scenario where they traded Dobson or Wahlstrom for immediate help if JT re-signed. Team would look much different.
Would Lou/Trotz have had the patience to wait for Pelech/Pulock to develop into an elite pairing? Maybe they overpay for Karlsson or some other vet D.
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